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Edwin Dorsey is the author of The Bear Cave, a weekly newsletter exposing publicly traded companies that are misleading investors and harming customers.
I’ve enjoyed Edwin’s writing since he launched his newsletter the Bear Cave in 2020, and he shares his best kept secret for doing customer research: FOIA requests. We also get into short selling more broadly, common corporate red flags, the economics of his media business, almost getting kicked out of Stanford for raising issues at Care.com his sophomore year, Planet Fitness’s illegal billing operation, Hershey’s Mr. Beast problem, and the creator economy more broadly.
(00:00) Intro (05:11) How shorting works (07:20) How short sellers exposed Enron (10:51) Edwin’s process for finding bad companies (15:52) Root Insurance and aggressive pricing (20:14) FOIA: the best kept secret for company research (24:30) Biggest corporate red flags (28:17) Most common industries for bad actors (29:32) Why scammers target minorities and low income consumers (31:46) Edwin’s $1B to $10B market cap sweet spot (34:03) The challenges of mainstream media (38:15) Exposing Care.com as a student at Stanford (45:25) Why immediate board resignations are a red flag (49:45) Launching The Bear Cave in Feb 2020 (49:37) Using podcast appearances to grow (56:06) The newsletter's business model (1:00:00) Experimenting with side-newsletters, job boards, and consumer surveys (1:10:04) Planet Fitness: gym or illegal billing operation? (1:18:45) Herbalife the pyramid scheme (1:21:05) Hershey’s MrBeast problem (1:28:15) Marketing and social signaling in CPG products (1:30:47) AgEagle Aerial Systems: $4B market cap, zero revenue (1:34:50) The most ridiculous SPACs (1:41:06) How Edwin differentiates his research (1:47:07) Favorite short sellers (1:47:59) Companies that will lose to AI (01:49:29) Why creator-led business will steal share from incumbents
Referenced The Bear Cave: https://thebearcave.substack.com/ FOIA Request Template (#13 here): https://www.readideabrunch.com/p/our-2023-hedge-fund-analyst-christmas SEC Full Text Search: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/ WSJ’s Care.com Story: https://www.wsj.com/articles/care-com-puts-onus-on-families-to-check-caregivers-backgroundswith-sometimes-tragic-outcomes-11552088138 Planet Fitness CEO resignation letter: https://x.com/StockJabber/status/1762220603715596460 Aurelius Value: https://x.com/AureliusValue Big River Capital: https://x.com/BigRiverCapita1 Marc Cahodes: https://x.com/AlderLaneEggs David Orr: https://x.com/orrdavid Citron Research: https://x.com/CitronResearch
Where to find Edwin: Twitter: https://twitter.com/StockJabber LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edwin-dorsey-a9195273/
Where to find Turner: Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/ Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeel Warp: Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1,000 gift card when you first run payroll. Melissa Cash is the Co-founder and CEO of Pok Pok, a montessori-inspired collection of digital toys that spark creativity and learning through open-ended play. Prior to Pok Pok, Melissa spent a decade working in marketing and design roles, helping Snowman drive 9-digits of downloads across its game portfolio and designing physical products at Disney. Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (05:46) Creating a Montessori inspired game (12:18) Why it's impossible to avoid screen time (15:35) Designing a non-addictive product (17:38) Monetizing a non-addictive game (21:47) How to price a subscription game (24:18) Using new features to drive retention (26:04) Marketing a kids game to parents (30:59) Why Pok Pok waited to launch Android (34:12) How getting pickpocketed in Germany led to a job designing products at Disney (39:23) How great products can define a childhood (43:21) Lessons from having a great idea while working at Disney (46:03) First coming up with the idea for Pok Pok (49:00) Advice for starting your first company (50:10) Fundraising tactics from Pre-Seed to Series A (54:08) How to build your network from zero (57:08) Getting the most out of Slack groups (59:07) Melissa’s hack for in-person events (01:01:33) Tactics for meeting people at events (01:03:39) Winning multiple Apple design awards (01:07:07) How to get press for your startup (01:13:17) Prioritizing getting women on Pok Pok’s cap table (01:18:38) Strategies for staying creative (01:21:58) Melissa’s influencer marketing hacks (01:24:24) Lessons from failed influencer campaigns (01:28:19) Growing 5x YoY, adding STEM content (01:30:28) What surprised her about starting a company Referenced: Try Pok Pok for 50% off an annual subscription with code POKPOK50: https://apple.co/3XAGSwT Snowman Studios: https://www.builtbysnowman.com/ Hampton Private Founder Group: https://joinhampton.com/ VC Backed Mom’s: https://www.vcbackedmoms.com/ The Peel Podcast episode with Eric Newcomer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HXH_peQWtnc More on Pok Pok’s Series A: https://techcrunch.com/2024/06/18/now-a-series-a-startup-kids-app-and-digital-toy-pok-pok-is-coming-to-android/
Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeel
Ed Sim is the Founder of boldstart ventures, which partners with bold founders reinventing the enterprise stack at the inception stage. Ed takes us inside the journey building boldstart, from its first $1m fund in 2010 up to $850m in AUM today.
Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:48) Evolution of early stage investing(05:11) Inception stage investing (10:32) Backing bold founders reinventing the enterprise stack(11:20) Repeatable ways to build enterprise businesses (12:04) The 5 P’s of early stage investing (14:12) Backing Guy Podjarny and Snyk (18:18) Knowing when to follow-on (19:18) The 3 Ch's of a good board member (22:01) How Ed’s board role changes over time (24:20) Balancing founder friendly with returns (27:20) How to build customer relationships (30:24) Advice for closing customers (33:47) Creating the Seed category in 2009/10 (37:31) boldstart’s $1m Fund 1 (39:00) Why Ed didn’t join a large firm in 2012 (39:55) boldstart’s $16.5m Fund 2 (40:26) Why LPs passed on the first funds (43:11) Leading rounds in Kustomer, Snyk, BigID, and Blockdaemon in Fund 3 (47:09) Why $112m Fund 4 was the hardest to raise(50:52) Ed’s approach to LP fundraising (55:12) Inside Meta’s acquisition of Kustomer and sale back to the founders (59:52) Backing Rahul from Superhuman a 2nd time (01:00:52) The different GTM playbooks (01:02:20) Importance of contract size and time to close (01:05:07) Why AI makes security more important (01:06:11) When to switch from founder-led sales(01:07:46) Backing ProtectAI after a conference (01:08:28) Balancing between inbound and outbound sales (01:09:55) Winners and losers in AI (01:15:26) Building the boldstart team (01:25:19) Lessons being an interim CEO (01:27:15) How ZIRP pulled revenue forward (01:29:08) The death of high growth software (01:32:58) Identifying startup opportunities incumbents won’t crush (01:35:00) Second order effects of AI (01:36:46) Using "Intuitive TAM" to size new markets (01:38:04) Investing before there’s a market map (01:38:57) Balancing family, fitness, and career
Referenced:
https://boldstart.vc/
Turning Down HBS: https://x.com/edsim/status/1315644287007240193
Ed’s tweet on raising Fund 4: https://x.com/edsim/status/1315644287007240193
Second Order Effects of AI: https://www.whatshotit.vc/p/whats-in-enterprise-itvc-379
Death of Hyper Growth: https://x.com/edsim/status/1797613384994623808
Where to find Ed:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/edsim
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edsim/
Newsletter: https://www.whatshotit.vc/
Where to find Turner:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/
Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeel
Nilam Ganenthiran is the founder and CEO of Beacon Software. Previously, he was the 12th employee and President at Instacart.
We talk tactics for customer research, building customer relationships, balancing strategy and execution, how to serve on and manage a board, what happened when Amazon bought Instacart’s biggest customer Whole Foods, inside its COVID response, surviving eight months of runway in 2015, his new company Beacon Software, and more.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro(04:23) Inside Amazon acquiring Instacart’s biggest customer, Whole Foods(12:13) Lessons from quickly signing 8 of the top 10 grocers(13:06) Why grocers were slow to adopt ecommerce(15:29) Building “Shopify for grocers”(16:22) Sales = building relationships(19:05) Why Wegman’s is one of the best grocers in the world(20:43) Cold calling Wegman’s and signing them two years later(24:33) How to do customer research(26:59) Catching an Uber in suits on the highway(28:50) Why Instacart was possible back in 2013(30:36) Launching Instacart’s advertising network(38:46) Growing 5x in 5 weeks during COVID(45:20) How Nilam started angel investing(47:56) Advice for sitting on boards(50:00) The roles and incentives of a board member(54:03) Deciding when to keep going and when to give up(56:02) Nilam’s framework around optionality(59:17) Seven years of weekly redeye flights(1:00:30) Almost running out of money 8 months after Instacart’s Series C(1:07:54) Why time is your scarcest resource & startups are default dead(1:10:00) Nilam’s new company, Beacon Software(1:11:28) Why he’s excited about AI(1:13:25) How AI makes human relationships more important(1:14:41) Turner’s investing lessons from family members
Beacon Software: https://beaconsoftware.ca/
Where to find Nilam:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/nilamg
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nilamganenthiran/
Where to find Turner:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/
Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeel
Ankur Goyal is the Founder and CEO of Braintrust, the end to end developer platform for building the world's best AI products. Their customers include companies like Instacart, Zapier, Notion, Airtable, Replit, and more.
We hit on the importance of LLM evals, advice for building AI products, why the best companies have two AI product roadmaps, and his non-conventional advice for founders.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro (04:04) Why everyone’s now an AI company (06:03) Reasons LLM evals are so important (08:10) Typescript becoming the language of AI (09:19) Replacing vibe checks with Braintrust (10:37) Making OpenAI’s protocols the standard (11:27) Why the best companies have two AI roadmaps (13:06) Building your product so each LLM release makes it better (14:54) Predicting AGI is impossible (15:54) Why people who work with LLMs aren’t worried about AI safety (16:52) The best developers are all-in on co-pilots (18:11) How AI is changing software development (21:09) Combining IDE, CIDC, and observability in one product (27:18) Are models more like CPU’s or relational databases? (30:14) How to pick an LLM (33:00) Advice for staying on top of new AI developments (34:30) Why tool calling is so important (38:02) Advice for young software engineers (40:25) Learning to code doing linear algebra homework (42:36) Lack of purpose interning in big tech (44:07) Working at MemSQL learning to be a founder (47:52) How to get a job at a startup (50:43) Building his first startups product on an international flight (52:39) Three lessons from his first failed startup (54:46) Don’t delegate what you’re good at (55:46) Why you should be careful listening to VCs advice (57:34) Tactics for successful delegation (59:36) Why Ankur doesn’t do any meetings (01:02:42) The importance of self-service in unlocking certain customer segments (01:05:14) How Braintrust got started (01:07:45) Advice on picking your target customers (01:10:35) How Braintrust hires with work trials (01:15:21) Balancing security with a modern UI (01:17:49) Why it’s hard to sell non-AI products right now (01:19:21) Advice for selling to large enterprises (01:23:10) Ankur’s favorite AI products
Referenced:
https://www.braintrustdata.com/
SICP Book
PDF: https://web.mit.edu/6.001/6.037/sicp.pdf
Hardcopy: https://www.amazon.com/Structure-Interpretation-Computer-Programs-Engineering/dp/0262510871
Linear’s guide to work trials: https://linear.app/blog/why-and-how-we-do-work-trials-at-linear
Where to find Ankur:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ankrgyl
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ankrgyl/
Where to find Turner:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/
Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeelAlan
Feld is the Founder and Managing Partner of Vintage Investment Partners. Vintage is one of the largest fund of funds in the world, managing over $4 billion across what is mostly investments into other venture funds, plus some secondary and direct startup investments at the growth stage.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro 03:53 What is Vintage 05:40 Why VCs adding value can waste a founder’s time 09:01 VC, where the asset chooses the investor 10:14 Fund size is the enemy of returns in VC 14:57 What people get wrong about FoFs 16:01 The value FoFs bring to LPs 17:11 Why entrepreneurs drive VC returns 17:55 Vintage’s unique FoF model 19:05 Does replacing the founders with an outside CEO work? 21:39 Starting Vintage after the Dot Com Crash in 2002 23:41 Buying secondaries at 70-80% discounts 25:13 Biggest mistakes when buying secondaries 26:18 Research around what makes the best entrepreneurs 31:09 Lessons from six downturns 34:41 Comparisons between 2002 and 2022 37:07 Advice for raising your first VC fund 41:16 The importance of differentiation 45:57 Sustainable ways to differentiate 49:05 What Vintage looks for in new fund investments 49:57 Advice for scaling a VC firm 53:47 Succession planning 57:50 What Alan’s doing post-Vintage
Vintage Investment Partners: https://www.vintage-ip.com/
Where to find Alan:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/alanf_feld
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alan-feld-1744389/
Where to find Turner:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/
Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeel
Anu Sharma is the Co-founder and CEO of Millie, building a better care system from the inside out. Our conversation covers the existing maternal health system, how Millie is reinventing it, and how to succeed building a healthcare company.
Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:16) Problems in US maternity care (13:21) Why insurance reimbursement drives healthcare (16:11) How bundled care unlocks personalization (18:48) From fiction writer to 20 years in healthcare (24:22) Why consumers don’t act like consumers in healthcare (26:09) The reason scale matters (27:43) Bundled payments and new care design (32:16) What make Millie unique (35:58) Importance of picking regional markets in healthcare (37:08) The two paths for insurance reimbursement (41:08) Why distribution is the product in healthcare (44:25) Opportunities in cash pay care (48:28) How Anu fundraised without a product (51:06) The future of in-person, hybrid, and virtual healthcare (52:56) Building maternity clinics for $150k
Check out Millie: https://www.millieclinic.com/
Where to find Anu: Twitter: https://twitter.com/anu_anusharma1 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anu-sharma-b169b12
Where to find Turner: Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/ Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeel
Aaron Levie is a co-founder and the CEO of Box. This conversation covers opportunities in AI, the early days of Box, and lessons Aaron's learned on his founder journey.
Timestamps (00:00) Intro (03:11) Why ChatGPT was an iPhone moment (04:37) Advice for large companies incorporating AI (11:16) Why AI will add jobs, not steal them (16:13) How AI is supercharging Box’s products (19:03) AI agents: the $1 trillion opportunity (25:27)Estimating size of new markets(29:58) Starting Box with high school friends (33:18) Living out of their first office (34:52) Why early investors passed on Box (37:24) Pivoting from consumer to B2B (39:53) How Box got its first customers (41:57) Should founders talk to Associates at VC firms? (43:26) How Mamoon at Kleiner saved Box at its Series B (46:25) Turning down an acquisition before IPO (50:51) Why Box’s IPO was so hard (54:11) Fending off an activist investor during COVID
Check out Box: https://www.box.com/
Where to find Aaron:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/levie
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/boxaaron/
Where to find Turner:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/
Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
Warp: Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1,000 gift card when you first run payroll.Get Attio, the next generation of CRM: https://bit.ly/AttioThePeelElad Gil is the founder of Color Genomics and Mixer Labs, which he sold to Twitter, and an early investor in iconic companies like Airbnb and Stripe, plus upstarts like Perplexity and Anduril.This is a wide ranging conversation that covers education, AI, and advice for building a startup.Timestamps(00:00) Intro(03:46) Building cool monuments(09:12) Fixing education(16:38) Why AI is underhyped(19:02) Four trends to watch in AI(19:55) Why there aren’t large biotech companies(23:21) The current state of Elad Gill(24:32) How he incubates companies(26:32) Contemplating AI-driven buyouts(27:29) His investing strategy, from early to late stage(36:57) Why he remained solo for so long(40:19) How to get conviction in unpopular investments(42:53) What made Steve Jobs a good communicator(44:00) The importance of ambition and leadership(46:28) Why Elad puts so much weight in the market(47:45) The evolution of Google’s business model(49:17) How to monetize consumer products(50:06) Analyzing a potential startup market(51:23) How successful products eventually become distribution companies(56:30) Non-obvious startup advice(59:54) When its OK to give up(01:02:20) Advice on raising your first round(01:03:21) Picking board members(01:04:45) How to hire your first three employees(01:06:48) Avoiding bad hires(01:08:39) The importance of speed of execution(01:12:36) Why he’s adding to his team(01:14:31) GardeningReferenced:Elad’s Blog: https://blog.eladgil.com/Elad’s Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@NoPriorsPodcast/Elad’s Book: https://growth.eladgil.com/Where to find Elad:Twitter: https://twitter.com/eladgilLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eladgilElad’s Website: https://eladgil.com/Where to find Turner:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
This episode is brought to you by Warp. Don’t let payroll and compliance hold your startup back: visit https://joinwarp.com/peel to get started and receive a $1000 gift card when you first run payroll.
Celine Halioua is the founder and CEO of Loyal, a biotech company developing medicine to help dogs live longer and healthier lives. And dogs are just the start - Celine thinks Loyal could one day do the same for humans.
She takes us inside what it’s like to build a biotech company from scratch. We talk through how Loyal’s longevity drugs work, the process of getting FDA approval, her biggest mistakes as a founder, how to approach building in a new market, lessons learned failing to raise her Series B, why rate of growth is all that matters in hiring, and almost not starting the company in the first place.
Timestamps: (00:00) Preview (03:30) How a longevity drug works (06:08) Predictions around longevity (08:26) Why Celine cares so much about not failing (12:05) Differences between biotech and software startups (14:15) Sizing a new market (16:53) Why biotech startups are more dilutive early on (20:22) Getting FDA approval (22:57) Why its hard to prove longevity drugs actually work (24:48) The reason Loyal started with dogs (25:27) How Loyal’s drug slows aging (33:42) Working on longevity to increase free will (34:25) Culture shock at Oxford and dropping out of her PhD (37:22) What makes Josh Koppelman a good VC (39:44) Celine’s two biggest mistakes as a founder (42:39) Why rate of growth is the best indicator of success but the hardest to predict (45:33) Self awareness & how being a CEO is both fun and miserable (48:11) How Laura Deming convinced her to start Loyal (50:18) Finding the science behind Loyal (54:21) Deciding it was the right path to start a company (56:30) Lessons from failing to raise a Series B initially (1:02:18) Why Silicon Valley can build 10x more deep tech startups (1:04:05) Doing big things that improve the world (1:04:50) What Celine looks for in startups Where to find Celine:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/celinehalioua
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/celinehh/
Celine's Website: https://www.celinehh.com/
Where to find Turner:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovak/
Newsletter: https://www.thespl.it/
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