The Pain Trade Podcast

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Value Beyond Growth with Kevin Orr Aug 17, 2025

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Rethinking Diversification: Alex Shahidi on Risk Parity and the 60/40 Problem Aug 13, 2025

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Rethinking Diversification: Alex Shahidi on Risk Parity and the 60/40 Problem
In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Alex Shahidi, Managing Partner and Co-CIO at Evoke Advisors, to talk about why most portfolios aren’t nearly as diversified as investors think — and how risk parity aims to fix that.
We dig into why the traditional 60/40 portfolio fails, how to truly diversify against growth and inflation shocks, and why today’s market risks make balance more important than ever.
In this episode:
Why “balanced” portfolios are still stock-heavy
How risk parity works — and why it’s really about true diversification
Building portfolios that avoid “lost decades”
Why inflation risk has returned after decades of stability
How today’s concentration in U.S. mega caps could backfire
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with top financial minds shaping markets in real time.
Subscribe for more interviews, insights, and raw takes that cut deeper than the headlines.
#LeadLagLive #Investing #PortfolioStrategy #RiskParity #StockMarket #AlexShahidi #AssetAllocation

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Breaking the 60/40 Rule: Matthew Tuttle on HEAT, AI, and Thematic Investing Aug 12, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Matthew Tuttle, CEO and CIO of Tuttle Capital, to talk about why the 60/40 portfolio no longer works — and how his HEAT formula helps investors adapt to today’s market realities.
We dig into why bonds fail as a hedge, how AI is reshaping investing, and the thematic opportunities most people are missing — from old economy AI plays to the future of space.
In this episode:
- Why bonds aren’t a reliable hedge anymore
- How the HEAT formula works — hedges, edges, asymmetry, themes
- Using leveraged and inverse ETFs strategically
- Thematic investing in AI, crypto, and space
- How AI is leveling the playing field for retail investors
Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with top financial minds shaping markets in real time.
Subscribe for more interviews, insights, and raw takes that cut deeper than the headlines.
#LeadLagLive #ETFs #Investing #HEATFormula #AI #StockMarket #MatthewTuttle #PortfolioStrategy #ThematicInvesting

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Shift from Legacy to Tech Stocks Strategy Aug 11, 2025

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The Diversification Illusion with Brad Barrie and Matt O'Brian Aug 11, 2025

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Most investors believe they're diversified, but they're likely clinging to an illusion. As the Shiller PE ratio hovers at 38 – a level only seen during the tech bubble – historical patterns show future returns likely to be flat over the next five years.
Brad Barry and Matt O'Brien from Dynamic Wealth Group challenge the conventional wisdom of diversification, revealing how those pretty colored slices on your pie chart might all move in lockstep when markets face real stress. Remember 2022? Both stocks and bonds plummeted together, exposing the fundamental flaw in traditional 60/40 portfolios.
True diversification isn't just about owning different labels – it's about understanding what drives returns. When economic growth falters, assets that seemed uncorrelated suddenly converge. Meanwhile, one single stock now comprises nearly 8% of the S&P 500, creating hidden concentration risk few investors recognize.
Global macro strategies offer a compelling alternative, historically performing well during precisely the market conditions we're facing today. By identifying supply and demand imbalances across currencies, commodities, and fixed income markets, these approaches can deliver returns through fundamentally different mechanisms than traditional investments.
The Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund combines global macro with US equities, creating smoother return profiles that don't rely solely on economic growth. As Brad aptly puts it, "Hope is not a plan" – hoping traditional diversification will protect you during the next market crisis isn't sound portfolio management.
Ready to rethink your approach to asset allocation? Download their enlightening white paper at rethinkassetallocation.com or visit dynamicwg.com to learn how multiple return drivers can help prepare your portfolio for whatever economic conditions lie ahead.

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Global Market Valuations: Finding Alpha Beyond US Shores with Phil Wool Aug 11, 2025

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Stepping beyond America's borders might be the smartest move for savvy investors right now. Phil Wool of Raliant Capital makes a compelling case for international equities—particularly emerging markets—at a time when U.S. stocks trade at historically high valuations.
The numbers tell a striking story: U.S. equities currently command a Shiller-CAPE ratio of 38 times earnings—three standard deviations above historical averages. While this doesn't predict an imminent crash, it strongly suggests lower-than-average returns over the next decade. Meanwhile, international markets offer better growth prospects at more attractive valuations.
Wool challenges the oversimplified narrative that international stocks have performed well this year solely because of dollar weakness. He highlights how emerging markets contain significant technology exposure, with many companies either competing with or supplying critical components to U.S. tech giants driving the AI revolution. This mirrors patterns from the dot-com era, when companies supplying internet infrastructure in emerging markets ultimately outperformed many headline-grabbing U.S. names.
For investors concerned about selecting winners in unfamiliar markets, Raliant's "quantamental" approach offers a solution. Their systematic strategies analyze billions of data points to identify companies with strong fundamentals flying under the radar. They incorporate market-specific factors that pure fundamental investors might miss, like foreign institutional investor holdings in South Korea or retail investor behavior in Taiwan.
Recent trade policy developments, including the Japan-U.S. trade agreement, demonstrate how market overreactions to political theater create opportunities for patient investors focused on fundamentals. These dislocations generate alpha for systematic strategies that can identify when stocks have unreasonably discounted good news or failed to properly price in positive developments.
Ready to diversify globally? Consider using the ACWI as your benchmark, with approximately 60% in U.S. stocks and 15% in emerging markets—then adjust based on current valuations and opportunities. With today's pronounced valuation disparities, overweighting international exposure might be the prudent choice for investors seeking both diversification and potential outperformance in the coming years.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Why Platinum Could Be Your Portfolio’s Hidden Gem: Investment Masterclass Aug 11, 2025

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Discover why savvy investors are turning their attention to platinum in this comprehensive investment masterclass. Join our panel of precious metals experts as they break down:
• The unique supply-demand dynamics making platinum increasingly valuable
• How platinum compares to gold and silver in a diversified investment portfolio
• Industrial applications driving long-term platinum demand
• Strategic approaches to platinum investment: ETFs, physical holdings, and mining stocks
• Risk management techniques when investing in precious metals
• Expert price projections and market analysis for 2025-2030
Whether you’re a seasoned investor looking to diversify or a newcomer exploring precious metals for the first time, this webinar provides actionable insights to help you make informed decisions about platinum investments.
Don’t miss this opportunity to get ahead of the market—watch now and discover if platinum deserves a place in your investment strategy.

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Avoiding the Tax Man: Bruce Lavine on how to Diversify Without Getting Burned Aug 08, 2025

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In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Bruce Levine, COO and Head of ETFs at Astoria Portfolio Advisors, to talk about one of the biggest problems facing investors today — how to diversify out of concentrated stock positions without triggering massive tax bills.

We dig into the upcoming launch of the LCOR ETF, built around the innovative 351 exchange structure, and how it can help investors turn overexposed gains into a diversified, actively managed portfolio.
In this episode:

Why “yesterday’s winners” rarely lead the next decade
How the 351 exchange works — and who can benefitThe tax advantage that only comes once: October 1 launch date
Why diversification matters, even for the biggest tech winners
How LCOR aims to beat the S&P 500 with a large-cap core strategy

Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with top financial minds shaping markets in real time.
Subscribe for more interviews, insights, and raw takes that cut deeper than the headlines.

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The ETF That Owns X.AI and Anthropic — Inside the AI Arms Race with Derek Yan Aug 07, 2025

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KraneShares’ Derek Yan joins me on Lead-Lag Live to break down the only U.S.-listed ETF that owns equity in private AI giants like X.AI and Anthropic — in partnership with REX Shares.
This isn't just another tech fund. $AGIX is built for the AI age — giving investors rare exposure to the companies powering artificial general intelligence (AGI), including OpenAI rivals that may never hit public markets.
We dive into:
- Why KraneShares is betting on AGI as the next major tech supercycle
- What sets X.AI and Anthropic apart from other AI players
- How KraneShares built a structure to hold private equity inside a 40 Act ETF
- What the AI Score reveals about the next winners in public markets
- Why the next AI boom might happen in applications — not just chips
Subscribe for sharp, high-conviction takes with the people building the future of finance.

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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Preservation Over Prediction: How Richard McWhorter Navigates Risk in Today’s Market Aug 07, 2025

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In my first episode hosting Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Richard McWhorter, Managing Partner at SRM Private Wealth, to unpack how he’s advising high-net-worth clients through today’s volatile market.
We talk valuation risk, tariffs, and intergenerational wealth strategy — and why Richard is focused on preservation over prediction in a market full of noise.
In this episode:
- Why today’s stock multiples don’t add up
- The long-term impact of U.S. tariffs and trade deals
- How SRM helps clients navigate macro uncertainty
- What younger generations can learn about risk
- How to protect and grow wealth across generations
Lead-Lag Live brings you straight into conversations with top financial minds shaping markets in real time.
Subscribe for more interviews, insights, and raw takes that go deeper than headlines.
#LeadLagLive #WealthStrategy #MarketValuations #FinancialAdvisors #PrivateWealth #Tariffs #Investing

Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive.

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