The Orthogonal Bet

Latest Episodes:

Kristoffer Tjalve on The Poetic Web Feb 14, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman speaks with Kristoffer Tjalve. Kristoffer is hard to categorize, and in the best possible way. However, if one had to provide a description, it could be said that he is a curator and impresario of a burgeoning online community that celebrates the “quiet, odd, and poetic web.”

What does this phrase mean? It can mean a lot, but it basically refers to anything that is the opposite of the large, corporate, and bland version of the Internet most people use today. The web that Kristoffer seeks out and tries to promote is playful, small, weird, and deeply human. Even though these features might have been eclipsed by social media and the current version of online experiences, this web—which feels like a throwback to the earlier days of the Internet—is still out there, and Kristoffer works to help cultivate it. He does this through a ⁠newsletter⁠, ⁠an award⁠, an ⁠event⁠, and more.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Suno

Alice Albrecht on What AI Can Learn from Human Cognition Feb 14, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, host Samuel Arbesman speaks with ⁠Alice Albrecht⁠, the founder and CEO of ⁠Recollect⁠, a startup in the AI and tools for thought space. Alice, trained in cognitive neuroscience, has had a long career in machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Samuel wanted to talk to Alice because of her extensive experience in AI, machine learning, and cognitive science. She has studied brains, witnessed the hype cycles in AI, and excels at discerning the reality from the noise in the field. Alice shares her wisdom on the nature of artificial intelligence, the current excitement surrounding it, and the related domain of computational tools for thinking. She also provides unique perspectives on artificial intelligence.

Episode Produced by ⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠

Music by Suno

Philip Ball on ‘How Life Works' Feb 14, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with ⁠Philip Ball⁠, a science writer, and formerly a longtime editor at the science journal Nature. Philip is the author of the fantastic new book ⁠“How Life Works: A User’s Guide to the New Biology.”⁠

Samuel wanted to talk to Philip because he loved this book. It’s fascinating and deeply provocative, even for someone with a PhD in computational biology—though Samuel’s might be a bit worn and out of date—and yet he still learned so much. The book examines how new advances in our understanding of biology have led scientists to understand that life is far less deterministic than we might imagine. For example, cells are not really machines, as some might have thought, but complex and messy yet robust systems. And while DNA and genes are important, there is so much more going on, from the processes that give rise to the shape of our limbs and our bodies, to how all of this can have implications for rethinking medicine and disease.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by Suno

Ben Reinhardt on How to fund R&D that is for the public good? Feb 14, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Samuel Arbesman speaks with ⁠Ben Reinhardt⁠, an engineer, scientist, and the founder of a new research organization called ⁠Speculative Technologies⁠.

Ben is obsessed with building an open-ended and exciting future for humanity. After spending time in academia, government, startups, and even venture capital, he set out to build a new type of research organization—Speculative Technologies—that helps to create new technologies and innovations in materials and manufacturing, acting as a sort of industrial lab for these public goods in order to make a positive vision of the future more likely.

There is a lot of optimism and excitement in this episode. The discussion covers the need for new types of research funding and research institutions, why it can be hard for startups to do research, Ben’s vision of the future—and his science fiction inspiration—the ways in which technological innovation happens, why he started Speculative Technologies, and much more.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by⁠⁠⁠⁠ Suno

Chaim Gingold on SimCity, Maxis and the ambitious modeling of everything Feb 14, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Sam speaks with game designer and researcher ⁠Chaim Gingold⁠⁠, the author of the fantastic new book Building SimCity: How to Put the World in a Machine.⁠

As is probably clear from the title, this new book is about the creation of SimCity, but it’s also about much more than that: it’s about the deep prehistory and ideas that went into the game — from system dynamics to cellular automata — as well as a broader history of Maxis, the company behind SimCity. Chaim previously worked with SimCity’s creator Will Wright on the game Spore, where he designed the Spore Creature Creator. Because of this, Chaim’s deep knowledge of Maxis, his access to the folks there, and his excitement about SimCity and everything around it makes him the perfect person to have written this book.

In this episode, Sam and Chaim discuss Chaim’s experience at Maxis, the uniqueness of SimCity, early 90’s gaming, the rise and fall of Maxis, Will Wright and his role translating scientific ideas for a general audience, and much more.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠Suno

Robin Sloan on His Epic Sci-Fi Novel Moonbound, Worldbuilding, and AI Feb 11, 2025

Show notes

In this episodeSam Arbesman speaks with Robin Sloan, novelist and writer and all-around fun thinker. Robin is the author of the previous novels, Mr Penumbra’s Twenty Four Hour Book Store and Sourdough, which are both tech-infused novels, with a sort of literary flavor mingled with a touch of science fiction. That’s why Sam was so excited by Robin’s brand new third novel Moonbound, where he goes for broke and writes a sprawling science fiction tale set in the far future.

In this episode, we explore how Robin built this far future and how he thinks about world-building, an exercise regimen for your imagination, science fiction and fantasy more broadly, and of course, novels with maps. And Lord of the Rings obviously makes an appearance as well.

But Moonbound also touches on AI in some really thoughtful and thought-provoking ways, and Robin has also been an early experimenter and adopter of language models. They get into all of that too, talking about AI, the nature of creativity, storytelling, and so much more.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by⁠⁠⁠⁠ Suno

Introducing: The Orthogonal Bet Feb 11, 2025

Show notes

My name is Samuel Arbesman and this is my personal philosophy: The world is combinatorially weird and fractally interesting. And therefore, omnivorous curiosity is the only proper response.

But let’s take a step back. We live in a complex world. Complex systems—the kinds with a huge number of interacting components—are not rare. They actually surround us, from the ecological and biological, to the globe-spanning technologies that we have built, to our societies, from the cities we live in to the entire vast sweep of humanity.

And as a result of this, understanding how change operates is also itself no easy matter. It’s complex. It’s hard to know when a small change might make a big impact, or when big changes might not matter not at all. As a result of this complexity we find ourselves in, at least when it comes to the nature of progress, we have to proceed with more than a bit of humility. Over and over, we don’t know how one idea will lead to another. Or we might be wrong about predictions. We might not know how one technology enables the next, or how one idea or action affects the future.

As a result of this epistemic humility, we are forever confronted with a kind of Veil of Progress. This veil forever prevents us from knowing how each advance might change the world. No matter how much we know about scientific advances and the newest technologies, it is hard to predict the shape of what is to come.

But despite this Veil, there is some good news. Not only are we on a planet of interconnected complex systems, but topics and ideas are also more interconnected than we might realize. Learning about biology can provide insight into computation. Thinking about the weather might lead you to think about mathematics, optics might touch on art, and learning history can touch upon everything.

And that is the origin of the orthogonal bet. If it’s hard to predict what will help move progress forward, let’s optimize instead for the interesting, the strange, and the weird. Ideas and topics that ignite our curiosity are worthy of our attention, because they might lead to advances and insights that we can’t anticipate.

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