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Volatility Views 663: 2026 VIX Outlook — Face Ripper Trades & Crystal Ball Winners Jan 09, 2026

Show notes

It is a New Year in the volatility markets! Host Mark Longo is joined by "Dr. VIX" Russell Rhoads and Mark Sebastian of Option Pit to break down a wild 2025 and peer into the crystal ball for 2026. From the "tariff tantrums" and "taper tantrums" of last year to the rise of 0DTE options and the recent "face ripper" ratio spreads, the team analyzes why the VIX median stayed elevated even without major explosive events. Plus, the moment you've been waiting for: we crown the 2025 Crystal Ball Hall of Fame winners and launch the official 2026 contest!

What's Inside this Episode:

The Volatility Review: A deep dive into the 2025 "Mad Vol Year." Why was the median VIX so much higher than normal?
The 0DTE Impact: How zero-day options are reshaping the term structure and long-dated premium.
VIX Face Rippers: Russell breaks down the bizarre ratio call spreads hitting the tape and what they signal for January and April volatility.
The Crystal Ball Hall of Fame: We announce the four winners who nailed the 14.95 year-end VIX close within 0.1pt.
2026 Predictions: The crew places their bets for the coming year. Can we see a sub-10 VIX, or will the midterms push us toward 17.76?

Key Timestamps:

[00:00] Introduction and "Happy New Year" Cutoff Debate
[07:15] 2025 Year-in-Review: The high of 60 and the 14-handle reality
[15:40] The "Tariff Tantrum" and Fixed Income Volatility
[22:10] Term Structure Analysis: Why the current curve is "poison" for ETP longs
[31:45] Russell's Weekly Rundown: Explaining the "Face Ripper" trades
[45:10] Crystal Ball 2025 Winners Revealed
[52:30] 2026 Official Predictions & Closing Levels

Connect with the Guest Experts:

Russell Rhoads: Follow on X @RussellRhoads
Mark Sebastian: Visit OptionPit.com or follow on X @OptionPit

Support the Network: This episode is brought to you by Tastytrade. See why Investopedia named them the best broker for options in 2024. Visit tastytrade.com/podcasts to learn more.

TWIFO 479: A Year of Treacherous and Improbable Events Jan 09, 2026

Show notes

The first "January Lion" of 2026 has arrived. Join Mark Longo and Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading as they kick off the new year with a high-octane look at the futures options landscape. From the aftermath of a historic 2025 to the geopolitical shocks of the first week of January, this episode breaks down why the "old rules" of the commodity markets are being rewritten.

In This Episode:

The 2025 Retrospective: A look back at a "once-in-50-year" event in the metals complex. Carley provides a candid "humbling" on the massive surge in gold and silver, and why 2025 was the year of the devoted trend follower.
The Silver Beast: Silver dominated last year with a 140%+ gain. Carley and Mark discuss the "Reverse 2020" effect, the impact of triple-leveraged ETFs, and why trading Silver options right now requires nerves of steel and a massive margin account.
Movers & Shakers: * The Light Side: A continuation of the metals rally (Silver, Platinum, Palladium) and a surprising 5% YTD surge in the Russell 2000 ($RUT).
- The Dark Side: Energy struggles as WTI and Brent lead the losers, while Natural Gas faces a "trap door" at the $3.60 pivot.
Equity Index Analysis: Why the "Mag 7" dominance is yielding to a Small-Cap catch-up play in the Russell. Plus, a strategy for "tail-risk nibbling" using deep out-of-the-money March and June puts.
Energy & Geopolitics: The team breaks down the "Maduro effect" and why Venezuela's supply won't be a quick fix for the crude markets. Carley explores the possibility of a capitulation move in oil toward the low $40s.
Viewer Q&A: The blurring lines between "trading" and "betting" as CME and FanDuel move closer together.

Market Volatility Snapshot (CVOL)

Treasury Yield Vol: Pinning the needle at 78.9 (High for the week).
Energy CVOL: Popping to 60.6 as geopolitical tensions rise.
Metals CVOL: Easing slightly to 31.0 despite massive moves in the underlying.

The Hot Options Report: 1-8-2026 Jan 08, 2026

Show notes

The first full trading week of 2026 continues to serve up a wild divergence in equity flow. In this episode, Mark Longo breaks down the top 10 most active names on the tape, revealing a market that is aggressively testing lines in the sand. While the "Monster" (MicroStrategy) claws its way back, the AI darlings are facing a stiff reality check.

In This Episode:

The Top 10 Countdown: We analyze the massive volume hitting the tape, with over half a million contracts required just to break into today's rankings.
The AI Hangover: Nvidia ($NVDA) takes the #1 spot with 2.75M contracts, but it's not all bullish. We look at the 187.50 calls and whether sellers are finally taking control.
Apple's $AAPL Rough Start: The fruit company continues its lackluster start to the year. We break down the massive deep-in-the-money put verticals clogging the tape.
The "Monster" Lives: MicroStrategy ($MSTR) sees nearly 1M contracts as crypto bulls attempt to reclaim the $170 handle.
Amazon's $AMZN Rally: One of the few bright spots in Big Tech today—we track the 62,000 in-the-money calls leading the dance.
Aggressive Puts in AMD: Someone is drawing a serious line in the sand with nearly 88,000 of the Jan monthly $250 puts.

Get more options data at TheHotOptionsReport.com.

The Option Block 1435: Looking Back at an ODD Year Jan 08, 2026

Show notes

The first Thursday of the new trading year is here, and the panel is back to break down a wild start to 2026. From record-breaking volume milestones to unusual activity in AI beauty tech and defense drones, the team dives deep into the forces shaping the market this week.

In This Episode:

The Trading Block: Mark Longo (The Options Insider), Uncle Mike Tosaw (St. Charles Wealth Management), and the Flowmaster Henry Schwartz (Cboe) review a mixed start to the session. While the S&P 500 struggles for direction ahead of the jobs number, small caps (IWM) are off to the races—up 5% year-to-date.
2025 Year in Review: Henry Schwartz provides an exclusive data deep dive into the sixth straight record-breaking year for options.
- Average Daily Volume (ADV): Nearly 61 million contracts.
- The 15 Billionth Contract: Henry reveals he tracked down the exact moment the milestone occurred—a spread in CoreWeave on the day after Christmas.
- Strike Proliferation: The industry has officially topped 2 million individual strikes available for trade.
Odd Block: Things get weird with unusual activity in:
- Caesars Entertainment (CZR): Heavy put volume and long-dated March 33 calls.
- Oddity Tech (ODD): A massive $640k bet on April 50 calls for this AI-driven beauty company.
- Vision-Wave (VWA): Bullish drone play with volume 16x the norm following geopolitical defense headlines.
Mail Block: The team discusses how to track the growth of new retail accounts and why "buying the dip" continues to be a dominant, albeit debated, strategy.
Around the Block: Predictions for the upcoming Supreme Court tariff decision, a preview of financial earnings (JPM, BAC, GS), and why the "Mag 10" equal-weighted index is the new one to watch.

The Futures Rundown 60: The Big Adios to 2025 – Silver, OJ & Venezuela Jan 08, 2026

Show notes

Happy New Year! We are kicking off 2026 on The Futures Rundown by giving the "Big Adios" to the wild, untamed year that was 2025. Mark Longo and Dan Gramza of Gramza Capital Management reunite to break down the final ledger of a year that was anything but boring in the pits.

From the absolute explosion in Silver (+140%) and Platinum to the brutal sell-off in Orange Juice and Rough Rice, we count down the Top 10 movers of the year. We also dive into the recent geopolitical shifts in Venezuela and why the crude oil market isn't reacting the way many expected.

In this episode, we explore:

The Precious Metals Clean Sweep: Why Silver was the late-bloomer that ended the year up a staggering 140%.
The 2025 Leaderboard: Deep dives into the winners like Lithium, Copper, and the surprising strength of the Brazilian Real.
The "Big Adios" Losers: Breaking down the 50% drop in OJ and the continued struggles for the Widowmaker (Natural Gas).
Energy Outlook 2026: Dan Gramza explains the infrastructure and political hurdles facing Venezuela's oil production and what it means for WTI and Brent prices.
The Crypto Futures Flip: Analyzing the volatile year for Bitcoin and Ether futures and why spot vs. futures performance varied so widely.

Resources Mentioned in this Episode:

Dan Gramza's Daily Videos: DanGramza.com
Join the Pro Community: TheOptionsInsider.com/Pro
Episode Sponsor: Tastytrade.com/podcasts

Options Boot Camp 372: Trading Resolutions for the New Year Jan 08, 2026

Show notes

Kick off the new year with a fresh set of options trading resolutions on this episode of Options Boot Camp. Hosts Mark Longo and Dan Passarelli dive into what traders should be focusing on in 2026 — from expanding your options strategy toolbox to managing risk, sizing trades properly, and knowing when not to trade at all.

With many traders coming off years of strong equity performance, the hosts explore whether it's time to rethink long-only strategies, reduce concentration risk, or introduce new approaches like stock substitution, LEAPS, downside hedging with puts, and portfolio diversification through options strategies. The conversation also covers why relying on a single options strategy can be dangerous, how to diversify your Greeks, and what newer traders often overlook when markets change.

This episode also looks ahead to potential options market trends in 2026, including zero-DTE options, 24-hour trading, prediction markets, crypto volatility, and global market opportunities. Along the way, Mark and Dan reference past Options Boot Camp episodes to help listeners build a deeper understanding of puts, volatility, and long-term strategy planning.

The Hot Options Report: 01-07-2026 Jan 07, 2026

Show notes

It's the first full trading week of 2026, and the options tape is heating up! In this episode of the Hot Options Report, Mark Longo breaks down the top 10 most active names lighting up the chains. While Nvidia continues its dominance as the volume king, a massive 8% jump in Intel (INTC) stole the show following its CES 2026 manufacturing breakthroughs.

We dive into the order flow for the "Double-Digit Million" club and the names struggling to hold their ground, including a deep dive into Tesla (TSLA) and AMD sell-offs.

On this episode, we break down:

The Volume Leader: Nvidia (NVDA) hits nearly 2M contracts—are the 190 calls a trap or a target?
The CES Catalyst: Intel (INTC) rallies 6.5% on "18A" tech news with heavy call action at the 46 strike.
Big Tech Fade: Why Apple (AAPL) and AMD are seeing opening paper hit the bid.
The Long Game: Someone is betting big on Alphabet (GOOGL) with massive June 430 calls.
Crypto Proxy: MicroStrategy (MSTR) stays hot as it flirts with the 170 level.

Top 10 Tickers Covered Today:

Nvidia (NVDA)
Tesla (TSLA)
Intel (INTC)
Amazon (AMZN)
Apple (AAPL)
MicroStrategy (MSTR)
Palantir (PLTR)
Alphabet (GOOGL)
AMD
Microsoft (MSFT)

Check out the data for yourself: Visit The HotOptionsReport.com for more options data.

The European Market Brief 16: Defense, Financials, and the 2026 Eurozone Outlook Jan 07, 2026

Show notes

The trading day doesn't start when the opening bell rings. In this inaugural episode of 2026, Mark Longo is joined by a powerhouse panel to dissect a wild 2025 and forecast the trends shaping the European derivatives landscape in the year ahead.

Inside This Episode:

2025 Retrospective: Why European financials and defense sectors outperformed the US mega-cap tech narrative.
The Defense Boom: A look at the unprecedented returns in European defense indices (some up nearly 100%) and whether the momentum can survive potential geopolitical shifts.
Banking on Europe: Why the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index returned a staggering 76% in 2025 and how the diversification of European mega-caps offers a unique play compared to US financials.
Volatility Outlook: Russell Rhoads breaks down the VIX vs. VSTOXX and explains why the US remains the primary source of global "anticipatory" volatility.
New Product Alert: Sophie Granchi (Eurex) discusses the shift toward Industry Futures and the demand for thematic trading in a de-globalizing world.

The Red Phone: Listener Q&A

The panel answers your burning questions on:

Relative Value Trades: How to play the narrow calendar spreads in VSTOXX vs. the wider spreads in VIX.
Institutional Rotation: Is the heavy volume in European Bank futures a "higher for longer" play or a flight from US markets?
The Divergence Myth: Is the gap between the S&P 500 and STOXX cyclical or a permanent shift in global equity performance?

Featured Guests:

Mark Longo: Founder & CEO, The Options Insider Media Group
Russell Rhoads: Kelly School of Business, Indiana University (a.k.a. Dr. VSTOXX)
Sophie Granchi Head of Equity & Index Sales (EMEA), Eurex
Arun Singhal: Global Head of Index Product Management, STOXX

The Hot Options Report: 01-06-2026 Jan 06, 2026

Show notes

Kick off the first full week of 2026 with a deep dive into a wild day on the options tape. In this episode of the Hot Options Report, Mark Longo breaks down the top 10 most active products, headlined by a massive breakout in Micron (MU) and a significant "dark side" shift in Tesla (TSLA).

While the broader market saw mixed action, the semiconductor space stole the show. We analyze why Micron popped 10% to close near $344 and what the heavy activity in the 350 calls suggests for the rest of the week. Meanwhile, Tesla bulls took a breather as volume flooded into the 430 puts following a 4% sell-off.

In this episode, we cover:

The Semiconductor Slugfest: Nvidia vs. Tesla for the #1 spot.
Micron's Moonshot: Breaking down the 619,000 contracts and the $350 call interest.
Tesla Sentiment Shift: From $500 calls to $430 puts—is the "dark side" taking over?
The Tech Round-up: Unusual activity in Palantir (PLTR), AMD, Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN).
SoFi's Slump: Analyzing the 8% drop and the volume at the $27 strike.

Check out more from The Options Insider:

Get Pro Insights: theoptionsinsider.com/pro
Daily Data & Tools: TheH otOptionsReport.com

The Hot Options Report: 01-05-2026 Jan 05, 2026

Show notes

Welcome to the first full trading week of 2026! While the major averages surged to kick off the new year, the options tape is telling a much more nuanced story. Mark Longo breaks down the top 10 most active names, highlighting a strange divergence where the broader market rallied while tech titans like Apple and Nvidia faced early-year selling pressure.

The Top 10 Countdown:

#10: AMD (AMD) – Bucking the green trend, AMD sold off over 1% to close at $221.08. Traders focused on the Jan 230 calls expiring this Friday.
#9: SoFi (SOFI) – Roaring back with a 6.6% pop, SoFi reclaimed nearly all its recent dilution losses. The Jan 30 calls were the hot strike of the day.
#8: Palantir (PLTR) – Rallying over 3.6%, Palantir bulls are looking toward the moon with heavy volume on the Jan 190 calls.
#7: MicroStrategy (MSTR) – "The Monster" saw wild opening flow, specifically a nearly 25,000-contract block of March 160 calls.
#6: Amazon (AMZN) – The Amazonians joined the rally, gaining nearly 3%. Buyers stepped into the Jan 235 calls for Friday expiration.
#5: Apple (AAPL) – A rare red day for the fruit company amidst a market rally. Over 44,000 of the Jan 270 calls traded, likely as overwrites.
#4: Nu Holdings (NU) – The Brazilian banking giant popped over 5% on 15x its average daily volume.
#3: JPMorgan (JPM) – Financials are leading the charge, but JPM's 1.28 million contract volume was heavily skewed by Ex-Dividend (X-Div) activity in the January pars.
#2: Tesla (TSLA) – Back in the silver medal spot, Tesla jumped 3.1% to $451.67. The Jan 460 calls saw aggressive action.
#1: Nvidia (NVDA) – Taking the crown once again, but finishing slightly in the red. Massive interest remains at the Jan 195 calls for the end of the week.

In This Episode:

Why Apple and Nvidia are struggling while the Dow and S&P climb.
Understanding the impact of Ex-Dividend flow on JPMorgan's massive volume.
Breaking down opening vs. closing flow in MicroStrategy and Nu Holdings.

Get the Full Data: Visit TheHotOptionsReport.com to see the daily options data that didn't make it into the show.

Join the Pro Community: Go to theoptionsinsider.com/pro for access to the upcoming Vol Death Match 2.0 and exclusive Q&A sessions.

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