The Long View

Latest Episodes:

Jeffrey Kleintop: What to Make of ‘the Cardboard Box Recession’ Oct 17, 2023

Show notes

Our guest this week is Jeffrey Kleintop. Jeffrey is managing director, chief global investment strategist for Charles Schwab & Co. In his role, Jeffrey analyzes and comments on international markets, trends, and events. You can find Jeffrey’s commentary on social media at @JeffreyKleintop, as well as on Schwab’s site, where a full library of his content is available. Jeffrey is quoted often in national media and has been a regular guest on CNBC and other television outlets. Prior to joining Schwab, Jeffrey served as Chief Market Strategist at LPL Financial. He received his bachelor’s in business from the University of Delaware and his MBA from Pennsylvania State University and is a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.

Background

Bio

Twitter

Market Evolution: How to Profit in Today’s Changing Financial Markets, by Jeffrey Kleintop.

Markets and Consumer Confidence

Charles Schwab Weekly Market Outlook

“Gloomy Consumer Confidence May Signal Stock Rally,” by Herbert Lash, Reuters, June 18, 2008.

“Confidence Is Everything: 3 Things May Shake It,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, VettaFi Advisor Perspectives, Aug. 18, 2020.

“Schwab Market Perspective: Different Speeds,” by Liz Ann Sonders, Kathy Jones, Jeffrey Kleintop, VettaFi Advisor Perspectives, June, 20, 2023

Liz Ann Sonders

Kathy Jones

“Kleintop: We’re in for an extended period of market volatility,” CNBC Television.

“Revisiting Short-Duration Stocks,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, April 9, 2023.

Cardboard Box Recession

“Mid-Year Outlook: Global Stocks and Economy”, by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, June 5, 2023.

“U.S. Is in a ‘Cardboard Box Recession,’ Says Strategist,” Yahoo Finance, June 13, 2023

“The US Is in a ‘Cardboard Box Recession’ That’s Pointing to a Sharp Fall in Inflation by the End of the Year,” by Jennifer Sor, Markets Insider, June 6, 2023.

Central Banks, Yen Carry Trade, International Markets

“Risk: Hikes May Be Over, But QT Goes On,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Sept. 25, 2023.

“Divergence: Rate Cuts, Pauses, and Hikes,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, July 31, 2023.

“Are You Focusing on the Wrong Central Bank?” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Feb. 26, 2023.

“Europe Sentiment: So Bad It’s Good,” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Sept. 11, 2023.

IMF World Economic Outlook

“China: Contagion or Contained?” by Jeffrey Kleintop, Schwab, Aug. 28, 2023.

Artificial Intelligence

“Investing in Artificial Intelligence (AI),” by Jeffrey Kleintop, VettaFi Advisor Perspectives, Aug. 15, 2023.

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Dr. Anita Mukherjee: Exploring the Link Between Wealth, Longevity, and Quality of Life Oct 10, 2023

Show notes

Our guest on the podcast today is Dr. Anita Mukherjee, associate professor in Risk and Insurance at the Wisconsin School of Business at the University of Wisconsin at Madison. Professor Mukherjee conducts research on public policy related to prisons and the opioid crisis, as well as household finance, retirement, and aging. Professor Mukherjee joined the Wisconsin School of Business after completing her Ph.D. in applied economics at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She holds an M.S. in management science and engineering, a B.S. in mathematics, and a B.A. in economics, all from Stanford University. Prior to enrolling at Wharton, she spent two years working as a consultant to Oliver Wyman.

Background

Bio

Abandoned Retirement Plans

“Lost and Found: Claiming Behavior in Abandoned Retirement Accounts,” by Anita Mukherjee and Corina Mommaerts, Retirement & Disability Research Center, 2020.

“Set It and Forget It? Financing Retirement in an Age of Defaults,” by Lucas Goodman, Anita Mukherjee, and Shanthi Ramnath, papers.ssrn.com, Oct. 19, 2022.

Lucas Goodman

“Frictions in Saving and Claiming: An Analysis of Unclaimed Retirement Accounts,” by Anita Mukherjee and Corina Mommaerts, Retirement & Disability Research Center, December 2019.

Wealth Inequality and Retirement

“Inequality in the Golden Years: Wealth Gradients in Disability-Free and Work-Free Longevity in the United States,” by Hessam Bavafa, Anita Mukherjee, and Tyler Q. Welch, Journal of Health Economics, Sept. 26, 2023.

“The Effects of the Opioid Crisis on Employment: Evidence From Labor Market Flows,” by Anita Mukherjee, Daniel W. Sacks, and Hoyoung Yoo, papers.ssrn.com, July 27, 2022.

“The Effects of Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid Abuse, Mortality, and Crime,” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Anita Mukherjee, papers.ssrn.com, Dec. 5, 2022.

“Intergenerational Altruism and Retirement Transfers: Evidence From the Social Security Notch,” by Anita Mukherjee, The Journal of Human Resources, September 2022.

Medicaid and Financial Literacy

“Medicaid and Long-Term Care: The Effects of Penalizing Strategic Asset Transfers,” by Junhao Liu and Anita Mukherjee, papers.ssrn.com, Jan. 6, 2020.

“Building Financial and Health Literacy at Older Ages: The Role of Online Information,” by Anita Mukherjee, Hessam Bavafa, and Junhao Liu, The Journal of Consumer Affairs, January 2019.

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David Giroux: ‘I Want to Look Forward, Not Backward’ Oct 03, 2023

Show notes

Our guest this week is David Giroux. This is his second appearance on The Long View. We first spoke to him in February 2021 and are pleased to welcome him back. Giroux is head of investment strategy and chief investment officer for T. Rowe Price Investment Management. He is best known as the longtime lead manager of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, a strategy that invests in a mix of stocks and bonds. Since taking that fund’s helm in June 2006, he has racked up an impressive track record, handily beating the fund’s benchmark and peers. Giroux also manages T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF, a stock ETF that T. Rowe Price launched in June 2023. Giroux began his career at T. Rowe in 1998 after graduating from Hillsdale College, from which he received his bachelor’s degree in finance and political economy.

Background

Bio

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, Morningstar.com

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, T.Rowe Price

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Fund Annual Report, Dec. 31, 2022

“David Giroux: ‘What Are the Market Inefficiencies That We Can Exploit?’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Feb. 2, 2021.

ETF

“A Top Mutual Fund Manager Now Runs a Promising New Active ETF,” by Adam Millson, Morningstar.com, Aug. 4, 2023.

T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Equity ETF

Valuation and Risk Management

“How a Top T. Rowe Manager Keeps Beating the Markets,” by Tom Lauricella, Morningstar.com, March 30, 2023.

“Inflation Is Overhyped, Says This Pro. 4 Things That Really Matter for Investors,” by Andrew Welsch, Barron’s, June 8, 2023.

Mobileye

Revvity

Danaher

Thermo Fisher Scientific

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Michael Santoli: Decoding ‘an Indecisive Market’ Sep 26, 2023

Show notes

Our guest this week is Michael Santoli. This is Michael’s second appearance on The Long View, his first coming in August 2021. Michael is senior markets commentator at CNBC, which he joined in 2015. Prior to that, Michael was a senior columnist at Yahoo Finance, where he wrote analysis and commentary on the market and economy. That followed a long stint at Barron’s magazine, where Michael was a columnist and feature writer for 15 years. Michael began his career in the early 1990s as a reporter, covering the securities industry for Dow Jones Newswires. He earned his bachelor’s degree from Wesleyan University.

Background

Bio

“Michael Santoli: Navigating Through a Foggy Market Outlook,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Aug. 9, 2022.

Bonds and Interest Rates

“KKR’s Henry McVey Makes the Case for Real Assets,” Squawk on the Street, cnbc.com, Sept. 14, 2023.

“AI Hype Lifts Microsoft Shares at Alphabet’s Expense. An Opportunity May Be Investing for Investors,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Feb. 8, 2023.

Economy and the Stock Market

“Stocks Churn With the S&P 500 Sitting at the Same Level It Was Two Years Ago,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Sept. 16, 2023.

“The Stock Market Is Stuck in a Typical but Anxious Seasonal Pullback,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Sept. 9, 2023.

“Collective Embrace of Soft Landing Economic Scenario Extends 2023 Rally After Welcoming Drop in CPI,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, July 15, 2023.

“Stock Market Heads Into the Second Half With Near 15% Total Return so far in 2023,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, June 24, 2023.

“Is It a Bull or a Bear Market? Stocks Churning in Same Spot for Weeks Frustrates Investors,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, April 22, 2023.

“Explaining the Relative Calm of the Stock Market as the Fed Hikes Rates Into a Mini Financial Panic,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, March 25, 2023.

“Run on Silicon Valley Bank Injects Some Panic Into an Already Slumping Stock Market,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, March 11, 2023.

“Resilient Stock Market Finds Support at Just the Right Time, Preserving Uptrend,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, March 4, 2023.

“Who Is Right? Bulls and Bears Each Have Reliable Indicators Backing Them in This Confusing Market,” by Michael Santoli, cnbc.com, Feb. 11, 2023.

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Martin Lau: Revisiting the Case for Investing in Chinese Stocks Sep 19, 2023

Show notes

Our guest this week is Martin Lau. This is his second appearance on The Long View, the first being in August 2021. Lau is a managing partner of FSSA Investment Managers, part of First Sentier Investors. He has been at the firm since 2002 and is the lead fund manager of various FSSA strategies, including FSSA Asian Equity Plus, FSSA China Growth, and FSSA Hong Kong Growth. Lau has been in the investment business for nearly three decades and is based in Hong Kong. He earned a Bachelor of Arts degree from Cambridge University, a master’s degree in engineering from Cambridge, and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation.

Background

Bio

FSSA Investment Managers

“Martin Lau: Now Is a Better Time to Buy China,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Aug. 3, 2021.

Morningstar Global Fund Report: FSSA Asian Equity Plus

Morningstar Global Fund Report: FSSA China Growth

Morningstar Global Fund Report: FSSA Hong Kong Growth

China Market and Foreign Investments

“FSSA Martin Lau’s Lessons Learnt From 30 Years of Investing in China,” by Kate Lin, Morningstar.com, April 18, 2023.

“Meeting Companies Amid China’s Post-Covid Rebound,” Fund Manager Q&A With Martin Lau, Winston Ke, and Helen Chen, FSSA Investment Managers, April 2023.

“Client Update: A Fast Thaw After a Long Winter,” by Martin Lau, FSSA Investment Managers, March 2023.

“China Equities: Keeping a Long-Term View,” by Martin Lau, FSSA Investment Managers, March 2023.

“Three Themes and Companies to Play China’s Rise,” by Martin Lau, Firstlinks, March 22, 2023.

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Kelli Hueler: Confronting ‘the Next Big Risk’ for Retirement Sep 12, 2023

Show notes

Our guest on the podcast today is Kelli Hueler. Kelli is the CEO and founder of Hueler Companies. Hueler’s Income Solutions platform has been delivering lifetime income annuity products to the institutional marketplace since 2004. In addition, Hueler developed a database of stable-value fund analytics and reporting. It sold that database to Morningstar in 2020. Kelli is nationally recognized as a thought leader on the topic of lifetime income and is actively engaged in related public policy matters. Prior to founding Hueler Companies, Kelli held the position of a financial planning professional for IDS Life and was a registered representative for Kidder Peabody & Company, where she was responsible for institutional and retail clients. She received her bachelor’s degree from St. Olaf College in 1981.

Background

Bio

Income Solutions

“Morningstar Investment Management and Hueler Income Solutions Offer Integrated Lifetime Income Service,” Morningstar.com, Feb. 15, 2022.

Annuities

What Is an Annuity?

Annuity Types

“What the Future of Annuities Means for Advisors,” by John Manganaro, thinkadvisor.com, Oct. 6, 2022.

“Savings to Income: Creating a Paycheck for Life,” by Kelli Hueler, wiserwoman.org, Sept. 13, 2022.

“RIAs, 401(k)s, and Annuities: Is This the Future?” by Kerry Pechter, retirementincomejournal.com, Feb. 17, 2022.

Stable Value

“Trends Impacting Defined Contribution Plans and Stable Value,” by James Smith and Kelli Hueler, stablevalue.org.

Other

“David Lau: Taking High Commissions Out of Annuities,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, June 21, 2022.

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Cindy Haddad: Financial Planning for People with Disabilities Sep 05, 2023

Show notes

Our guest on the podcast today is Cynthia Haddad, an expert on financial planning for people with disabilities and their families. Cindy co-founded Affinia Financial Group, which was just acquired by Sequoia Financial Group. Cindy is now senior vice president and wealth advisor for Sequoia’s special needs planning practice. She is also co-author of The Special Needs Planning Guide, now in its second edition. Cindy is a certified financial planner and a chartered special needs consultant. She received her bachelor’s degree in economics and finance from Simmons University.

Background

Bio

John Nadworny

The Special Needs Planning Guide: How to Prepare for Every Stage of Your Child’s Life, by Cynthia Haddad and John Nadwordy

Basic Special Needs Planning

“A Parent’s Guide to the Special Needs Letter of Intent,” specialneedsplanning.com.

“Choosing a Guardian for an Adult With Special Needs,” specialneedsplanning.com.

The Academy of Special Needs Planners

Special Needs Alliance

NALA—The Paralegal Association

Government-Provided Assistance and Special Needs Trusts

The ABLE Account

Government Benefits

Housing and Transition

The Arc of Massachusetts

“A Special Needs Trust and Your Plan for the Future,” specialneedsplanning.com.

“How ‘Third-Party’ Special Needs Trusts Differ From Other Trusts,” specialneedsanswers.com, March 8, 2023.

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Katie Nixon: Bringing a Blurry Market Into Focus Aug 29, 2023

Show notes

Our guest this week is Katie Nixon. Katie is an executive vice president and chief investment officer for the wealth management business at Northern Trust. Katie’s responsibilities include investment policy development, and she directs the investment management activities of Northern Trust portfolio managers across the firm’s wealth management offices. She also sits on the firm’s Investment Policy Committee and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee and chairs the Wealth Management Investment Advisory Committee. Prior to joining Northern Trust, Katie worked at U.S. Trust Company as a senior leader in the firm’s wealth management division. Katie received her bachelor’s from Wellesley College and her MBA from New York University, Stern School of Business. Among other designations she’s been awarded, Katie is a CFA charter holder.

Background

Bio

Inflation and Interest Rates

“Katie Nixon: Exploring the ‘What Ifs,’” by Katie Nixon, Morningstar.com, July 1, 2022.

“Markets Brief: There’s Good News for Investors in Rates Staying Higher for Longer,” by Tom Lauricella and Caryl Anne Francia, Morningstar.com, July 7, 2023.

“Stock Market Correction? It’s a Buying Opportunity,” by Anne Kates Smith, Kiplinger.com, Feb. 24, 2022.

“Triumph of the Optimists?” by Katie Nixon, Northerntrust.com, Aug. 18, 2023.

Yield Curve

“The Yield Curve and What It Tells Us,” by Katie Nixon, Northerntrust.com, March 30, 2022.

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Rick Rieder: Explaining the ‘Polyurethane’ U.S. Economy Aug 22, 2023

Show notes

Our guest this week is Rick Rieder. This is Rick’s second appearance on The Long View. We last interviewed him in May 2020, and we are happy to welcome him back. Rick is BlackRock’s chief investment officer of Global Fixed Income, head of the Fundamental Fixed Income Business, and head of the Global Allocation Investment Team. Rick also is a member of the firm’s Global Executive Committee, its Investment Subcommittee, and is chairman of the firmwide BlackRock Investment Council. In addition to these duties, Rick manages numerous multi-asset and fixed-income strategies, including BlackRock Global Allocation Fund and a new active exchange-traded fund that the firm recently launched called BlackRock Flexible Income ETF.

Background

Bio

“Rick Rieder: Nobody Has Ever Seen Anything Like This,” The Long View podcast, Morningtar.com, May 20, 2020.

BlackRock Flexible Income ETF BINC

Dispersion and Liquidity

“Investors Rediscover the Importance of Getting Paid Back,” by Rick Rieder, blackrock.com, June 21, 2023.

“BlackRock’s Rieder: Grab High Yields on Super-Safe Bonds While You Can,” by Tom Lauricella, Morningstar.com, May 18, 2023.

The Economy and Inflation

“BlackRock Bond Chief Rieder Says U.S. Economy in ‘Much Better Shape’ Than Doomsayers Say,” by Hugh Son, cnbc.com, May 23, 2023.

“The Polyurethane Economy: Flexible and Adaptable,” by Rick Rieder, blackrock.com, Feb. 22, 2023.

“5 Reasons to Call an Investment ‘Time-Out,’” by Rick Rieder, blackrock.com, March 31, 2023.

“The New Inflation Regime,” blackrock.com.

“Fed Chair Powell May Lean Hawkish on Inflation, but Stocks Have ‘Tremendous’ Technical Backdrop, Says BlackRock’s Rick Rieder,” by Christine Idzelis, marketwatch.com, July 26, 2023.

Consumer Spending and Allocation

“Investing in a Changing World: From Carburetors to Compilers,” by Rick Rieder, blackrock.com, Aug. 10, 2023.

“July Jobs Report Shows the Post-Pandemic Labor Market Is Over,” by Myles Udland, finance.yahoo.com, Aug. 4, 2023.

“Rotation to Duration: Seeking a More Resilient Portfolio,” by Rick Rieder, blackrock.com, Aug. 1, 2023.

BlackRock Global Allocation Fund MALOX

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Bill Nygren: The State of Value Investing Today Aug 15, 2023

Show notes

Our guest this week is Bill Nygren. Bill was one of our earliest guests on The Long View, appearing for the first time back in August 2019. Bill is a partner at Harris Associates, which he joined in 1983. There he serves as the firm’s chief investment officer for U.S. Equities and is also the longtime manager of several Oakmark funds, including the Oakmark Fund, the Oakmark Select Fund, as well as the Oakmark Global Select Fund. Bill received his bachelor’s in accounting from the University of Minnesota and his master’s in finance from the University of Wisconsin’s Applied Security Analysis Program. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Background

Bio

“Bill Nygren: ‘A Stock That Doesn’t Look Cheap on the Surface Might Be One of the Cheapest,’” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Aug. 7, 2019.

Recent Commentaries

“Oakmark Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.

“Oakmark Select Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.

“Oakmark Global Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.

“Oakmark Global Select Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.

“Oakmark International Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.

“Oakmark International Small Cap Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.

“Oakmark Equity and Income Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.

“Oakmark Bond Fund: Second Calendar Quarter 2023,” by Bill Nygren, oakmark.com, June 30, 2023.