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    Business

    The Julia La Roche Show

    Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on “The Julia La Roche Show” have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

    Advertise
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    Latest Episodes:
    #421 Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike Oct 17, 2026
    Show notes

    In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.


    Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/


    Links:

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X


    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

    ⁠

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro and welcome back

    00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses”

    02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing?

    03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war

    07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path?

    08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again

    09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices

    11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference

    13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected

    15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor

    17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court

    18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027

    20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage?

    21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine

    24:36 The AI reset and circular finance

    26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages

    29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly

    31:34 What Whalen is watching next




    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.


    #420 Larry McDonald: The Market Has Already Crashed. The Index Just Hasn’t Noticed Oct 15, 2026
    Show notes

    New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months


    Thank you to our partners

    Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

    Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/


    Links:

    How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

    Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

    Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/


    Timestamps:

    0:00 Preview: the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle

    0:19 Welcome Larry McDonald

    1:20 Learning from mentors and “cage matches”

    2:06 Why AI data center financing is breaking down

    4:53 Convertible bonds: the “last saloon”

    8:31 The ConvertBond.com story

    9:09 Credit warnings: canceled IPOs, CCCs and leveraged loans

    11:15 The million-dollar bet: three hikes or three cuts?

    11:49 The consumer takes four or five left hooks

    15:13 Why the Fed is faking its hiking cycle

    16:28 Record highs, but an internal market crash

    21:02 Passive investing and the convergence trade

    23:19 What could trigger the convergence: AI capex and the midterms

    24:43 The case for gold and silver

    27:28 Silver, solar and the rotation out of tech


    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.


    #419 Chris Whalen: Mortgage Funeral, No Bond Rally & the Deficit Washington Won’t Talk About Oct 10, 2026
    Show notes

    In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.


    Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/


    Links:

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X


    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

    ⁠

    Timestamps:

    00:00 – Intro

    00:49 – Midterms less than a month out: how Trump has hurt GOP chances

    03:11 – Affordability is still the No. 1 issue

    04:33 – MBA Annual in Chicago: firms quietly up for sale

    07:35 – How much downside is left in housing if rates hold?

    09:06 – Replacement cost vs. market value, and why builders are pulling back

    10:30 – Housing outlook: still a seller’s market

    11:59 – Why Chris disagrees with Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call

    14:01 – What’s really pushing the 10-year higher: the Treasury buyback misstep

    15:42 – Why the Fed won’t talk about the deficit

    18:33 – Are we headed for a debt reset or “Jubilee”?

    19:40 – Record S&P highs vs. AI bubble fears

    23:05 – Why financials are “dead in the water”

    24:26 – The mortgage industry “funeral”: downsizing and consolidation

    26:27 – Viewer Q: Where are mortgage rates and home prices headed?

    28:55 – Viewer Q: Should Congress hike capital gains taxes?

    30:50 – Viewer Q: Should you wait to buy energy until the Iran war ends?

    33:58 – What Chris is watching next week


    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.


    #418 Ray Dalio on the Risky Period for Investors, Bubble Warnings, and a Coming Debt Squeeze Oct 08, 2026
    Show notes

    Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/


    Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:

    Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

    Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/


    Links:

    Website: https://www.principles.com/

    X: https://x.com/RayDalio

    LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/


    Timestamps:

    0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum
    1:03 Dalio's five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971
    6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force
    7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6?
    9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits
    12:38 Is a debt "heart attack" coming? Dalio's timeline
    16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns
    17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929
    21:55 How Dalio is positioned: short debt, focus on diversification
    22:30 Why gold belongs in a portfolio (5–15%)
    24:35 Bitcoin: why Dalio holds only about 1%
    25:47 Where to diversify: AI adopters, ASEAN, Singapore, UAE, Europe, TIPS
    29:00 How the cycle plays out, and how to prepare
    31:25 What makes a country successful? Education, civility, and avoiding conflict
    33:54 Closing


    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.


    #417 Nick Nemeth: The Biggest Turn in My Lifetime, Why Credit Contagion Could Hit Everything Oct 06, 2026
    Show notes

    Is private credit the next 2008? Nick Nemeth, author and publisher of Mispriced Assets, joins Julia La Roche to explain why he sees systemic risk building in private credit, and why the real danger may sit inside life insurers' $10 trillion balance sheets. Nick explains how Dodd-Frank pushed risk out of the banks and into asset-manager-owned insurers like Athene. He says defaults are already running above 2008 levels, AAA-rated CLOs may not be as safe as advertised, and opaque Level 3 marks and 20–30x leverage could hide big losses. He also covers what this means for annuity holders, why regulators are falling short, his public fight over Cliffwater, how contagion could spread through reinsurance, and whether the next bailout could be big enough without breaking the dollar. He ends with bold 12-month predictions, including AAA CLO defaults, an insurance industry shakeout, and Kevin Warsh's first real test at the Fed.

    Thank you to our partners

    Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

    Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/

    Links:

    Substack: https://mispricedassets.substack.com/

    X: https://x.com/NickNemo17


    Timestamps:

    0:00 Credit stress before the Iran War
    0:23 Welcome Nick Nemeth of Mispriced Assets
    1:07 Macro view: a highly levered system
    4:20 Money printing, inflation and the dollar
    7:00 Private credit defaults are rising
    10:23 Rising yields: defaults above 2008 levels
    11:46 Why this is systemic, and how it compares to 2008
    14:21 AAA CLOs "safer than the U.S. government"?
    17:28 How we got here: Dodd-Frank pushed risk outside the banks
    19:33 The insurance connection
    26:30 Is your annuity safe?
    27:18 Are regulators asleep?
    29:25 Nick's biggest worry: bad marks and extreme leverage
    34:42 Ratings agencies and the Cliffwater fight
    39:33 The fix: mark-to-market and transparency
    40:58 How credit contagion could spread
    46:49 Why isn't the market down 20%?
    50:52 12-month predictions: AAA CLO defaults and an insurance shakeout
    53:09 Kevin Warsh's first test
    55:23 Where to find Nick


    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.


    #416 Chris Whalen: Cheap Credit Is Over, K-Shaped Economy Becoming an L, Long Energy & Short Financials Oct 03, 2026
    Show notes

    The Wrap with Chris Whalen is back after a weak jobs report, with just 29,000 jobs added against expectations of 90,000, and long-term yields still elevated. Chris argues that rising bond yields reflect real inflation running in the mid-to-high single digits, well above the official numbers, and that the era of Fed-suppressed rates that began in 2008 is over. He expects the Fed to hold in October and possibly hike in November, and makes the case that Powell gave Trump nearly everything he wanted while incoming Chair Warsh is a hawk. Chris explains why $8–9 diesel and high replacement costs mean building more homes won't fix affordability, and why consumer credit stress is spreading upward. In his words, the K-shaped economy is "fast becoming an L." He reveals he's now short a couple of bank names, has rotated heavily into energy, and sees "long energy, short financials" as the trade for the next year or two. He also previews a tough midterm for Republicans, answers a viewer question on raising taxes, and discusses Judy Shelton's move to Treasury and his critique of the FASB's mortgage servicing rights proposal.



    Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/


    Links:

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X


    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

    ⁠

    Timestamps:

    0:00 – Welcome to The Wrap

    0:18 – Jobs report misses badly, but yields stay high

    1:28 – Is real inflation higher than the official stats?

    2:51 – October FOMC: hike, hold, or wait for November?

    4:20 – Powell gave Trump everything he wanted

    6:24 – The easy environment is over: diesel and demand destruction

    7:36 – Why building more homes won't fix affordability

    9:28 – 7%+ mortgage rates and pain in the mortgage industry

    10:40 – Portfolio rebalancing: selling financials, buying energy

    11:43 – Cracks in consumer credit

    13:01 – Restaurant and grocery margins (and the Publix real estate play)

    14:45 – The K-shaped economy is becoming an L

    17:11 – Why Chris is bearish on banks and shorting a few

    18:34 – Is a recession ahead?

    18:56 – Midterms, affordability, and Trump's lame-duck period

    21:29 – Will Warsh give Trump what he wants?

    23:36 – Viewer Q: Why not raise taxes to cut the deficit?

    25:36 – Judy Shelton joins Treasury, and gold as money

    27:01 – Chris critiques the FASB mortgage servicing rights proposal

    29:08 – What Chris is watching: credit markets and Q3 earnings

    31:18 – Why this year will be remembered as extraordinary

    31:58 – Wrap-up


    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.


    #415 Dr. Mark Thornton: The Bond Market Is Flashing a Warning Nobody in Washington Wants to Fix Oct 01, 2026
    Show notes

    Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute, joins Julia to explain why the bond market is the pivotal story right now. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are back above 5%, the national debt is over $40 trillion, and deficits are running at about $2 trillion a year. Thornton argues that this is wartime-level borrowing during supposedly good times. It crowds out private investment, weighs on wages, and widens the K-shaped divide between asset owners and everyone else. He explains why he thinks the Fed's recent hike won't be its last. In his view, Chairman Warsh and Secretary Bessent are managing the problem rather than solving it, and a market break or crisis could give the Fed cover to restart money printing. He describes the US as merging onto the "highway to hyperinflation," draws on historical cases from Revolutionary France to Weimar Germany, and closes with why he expects hard assets and commodities to outperform financial assets over the next decade.


    Thank you to our partners

    Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

    Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/


    Links

    X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton

    Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx

    Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton


    Timestamps:

    0:00 Intro: Why bonds are the big worry

    0:43 Big picture: 10- and 30-year yields at 25-year highs

    4:24 Are we in a new higher-rate regime?

    11:48 Wartime deficits in "good times"

    18:21 Who wins and who loses from easy money

    20:25 Young people, housing, and the K-shaped economy

    24:02 Food, energy, and the Persian Gulf conflict

    28:10 Are we on the on-ramp to hyperinflation?

    34:03 Fed rate hikes: more coming, and what's next

    39:27 No consequences: the "magic checkbook"

    47:28 How to protect yourself: hard assets

    51:28 Where to find Dr. Thornton's work


    #414 Andy Constan: Markets Vulnerable to Disappointment, Cautious on Equities, and the 60/40 Strikes Back Sep 29, 2026
    Show notes

    Andy Constan, founder and CIO of Damped Spring and a veteran of Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show. He lays out his four-pillar macro framework and explains why he's turning cautious on equities despite a strong U.S. economy. His "pie theory" argues that the earnings AI companies are promising add up to more than the GDP available to deliver them. His "hamburger theory" warns that the massive borrowing needed to fund AI capex could stall if capital markets take a breather. With rates spiking for the seventh time since COVID, Constan doubts policymakers will engineer another V-top. He is currently short equities and max long long-term bonds, arguing that the much-maligned 60/40 portfolio is finally worth owning again. He also gives his early read on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, explains what it would really take to kill inflation, and argues that this cycle has no clean historical analog because it's fueled by public-sector rather than private-sector debt. He closes with the story of analyzing every trade from the 1987 crash on the Brady Commission at age 23, and his core advice: own a well-constructed portfolio at your risk target and hold it for life.

    Thank you to our partners

    Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

    Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/


    Links:

    Website: https://dampedspring.com/

    X: https://x.com/dampedspring

    Substack: https://substack.com/@dampedspring


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction and welcome Andy Constan
    00:50 The four-pillar macro framework: growth, inflation, risk premium, positioning
    02:42 Where we are: a strong economy and 66 months of above-target inflation
    05:20 AI and the "pie theory": why there isn't enough GDP for the earnings expectations
    12:22 The "hamburger theory": who pays for the AI capex boom
    13:50 The seventh rate spike: will it V-top again?
    17:43 Why he's getting cautious on stocks
    18:13 How most people should invest: risk targets and always owning beta
    21:43 Seeking alpha and his current positioning: short equities, max long bonds
    24:21 "The 60/40 Strikes Back": why bonds make sense again
    29:30 Bonds finally get the growth memo
    31:58 Vulnerable to disappointment, not recession
    32:52 His read on Kevin Warsh at the Fed
    36:59 What it would actually take to kill inflation
    38:45 Why the administration isn't fighting inflation
    41:37 What's mispriced right now
    43:35 Historical analogs: 0DTE options, portfolio insurance, and a public-debt-driven cycle
    48:09 Serving on the Brady Commission after the 1987 crash at age 23
    53:02 Parting thoughts and where to find Andy


    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.


    #413 Chris Whalen: Bonds, Gold, Energy, & the Coming Food Shock Sep 26, 2026
    Show notes

    Chris Whalen joins Julia La Roche to break down a turbulent week in markets, as the 30-year Treasury hits its highest yield since 2004 and the 10-year breaks 5%. Chris argues that long rates have structurally reset, driven by Washington's credibility problem and the deficit rather than by the Fed, and he says 7%+ mortgage rates are the new normal as the housing industry heads into consolidation. He makes the case that the world is moving back toward a pre-WWI-style system with gold at its foundation, and explains why he's still long gold and silver despite short-term swings. Drawing on his conversation with John Dizard, Chris explains how damaged Persian Gulf refining capacity is squeezing diesel and sulfur supplies, sending fertilizer prices up eightfold and setting up a food price shock next year. He warns that double-digit inflation is already "baked into the cake," and predicts demand destruction could force the Fed to cut rates by 2027. In viewer questions, Chris covers trimming his Annaly position to buy energy stocks, means-testing Social Security, where housing prices are falling, and the risks private credit poses to life insurance and long-term care policies.


    Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/


    Links:

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X


    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

    ⁠

    Timestamps:

    0:00 – Preview

    0:28 – Welcome to The Wrap

    1:06 – 30-year yield hits 2004 high, 10-year breaks 5%

    2:18 – 7%+ mortgage rates: the new normal

    3:16 – What higher rates mean for housing and the mortgage industry

    4:24 – Fed hike and whether Warsh has lost the long end

    5:48 – Inflated and the University Club talk

    6:34 – Gold and the return to a pre-WWI monetary system

    7:40 – Sponsor: Monetary Metals

    8:55 – Why rising yields haven't broken the gold thesis

    9:49 – The dollar and a multilateral currency world

    11:58 – October hike? The refinery capacity crisis

    14:05 – Diesel, sulfur, and the fertilizer shock

    15:40 – Double-digit inflation is "baked into the cake"

    16:36 – The endgame: Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

    18:22 – Demand destruction and why the Fed may cut

    21:24 – Viewer Q: Selling Annaly, buying energy

    23:36 – Viewer Q: Any shorts?

    24:21 – Viewer Q: An oversight board for Congress and means-testing Social Security

    27:42 – Why Social Security is invested in Treasuries

    29:10 – Viewer Q: Will housing prices fall?

    30:23 – Viewer Q: Private credit and long-term care policies

    31:25 – Wrap-up


    The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.



    #412 Michael Pento: 2027 Will Be a Very Difficult Year – Here's Why Sep 24, 2026
    Show notes

    Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche Show to warn that the U.S. faces what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit, all inflated at once for the first time in history. He argues that years of persistent inflation, soaring national debt, foreign creditors stepping back from Treasuries, and the unwinding of the yen carry trade are pushing bond yields higher, and that rising rates will ultimately burst all three bubbles. For the first time since 2021, Pento gives a timeline: he expects 2027 to be a very difficult year as the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh hikes rates and slows balance sheet growth, putting it in direct conflict with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to hold down long-term yields. Pento explains why he reluctantly uses the word "depression," why the traditional 60/40 portfolio could fail retirees, and why he believes the Fed will eventually return to money printing, triggering a prolonged era of "hyperstagflation." He also shares how he's positioned today, still net long, with short-term Treasuries, dividend payers, and precious metals, while watching credit markets closely because "the clock is ticking."


    Thank you to our partners

    Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052

    Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/


    Links:

    https://pentoport.com/

    https://twitter.com/michaelpento


    0:00 Cold open: "With reluctance, depression"

    0:19 Welcome back, Michael Pento

    0:59 The macro picture: 5+ years of inflation crushing consumers

    4:16 Insolvency, foreign creditors & the yen carry trade unwind

    8:15 Sponsor: Monetary Metals

    10:06 The "triumvirate of bubbles": stocks, real estate & credit

    14:40 Not a perma-bear: 35 years in the business

    15:18 Pento's first timeline since 2021: why 2027

    20:08 The forgotten middle class & why the pain is necessary

    21:39 Sponsor: Augusta Precious Metals

    23:12 Warsh vs. Bessent: are the Fed and Treasury at odds?

    24:43 Who wins? "The free market always wins"

    25:43 Why he's calling it a depression, not a recession

    28:26 Retirees beware: the danger of the 60/40 portfolio

    33:02 Where to hide in "hyperstagflation"

    34:48 How Pento is positioned right now (still net long)

    39:19 Is there hope on the other side?

    42:32 The biggest risk nobody's watching: long-term rates

    43:33 Record debt, private credit & "this is not normal"

    46:28 How to follow Michael Pento


    Previous 1 2 3 4 44 Next

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