The Higher Standard

*/ ?>

Latest Episodes:

Meaningfully Higher, Global Economy, ARMs & Aloha Oct 03, 2023

Show notes

After a long needed week off of production, the boys are back in the studio. Haroon kicks off the episode by actually making sure that all three red lights are on to ensure that no video or audio will be missed for this reunion episode. Chris spent a week in Kauai and returns to Saied and Haroon with some new found emotional warmth, no jokes about the male anatomy, but plenty of "aloha!" Jumping right in to things, Chris discusses how frustrated he is with the clickbait title and interview by The Fed's Kashkari to Yahoo! Finance. Then Saied and Chris go down a long rabbit hole of what holding rates "higher for longer" actually means for the global economy and not just the United States. For those of you who want to know "Is Saied still coughing every damn episode?" The answer is absolutely and we leave every single one in the show to annoy you as much as it annoys us.

Resources:

Fed's Kashkari: 40% chance of needing 'meaningfully' higher rates (Yahoo! Finance)

What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates? (Reuters)

Rising Loan Costs Are Hurting Riskier Companies (Wall Street Journal)

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator rose less than expected in August (CNBC)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Listener Appreciation Q&A Episode Sep 29, 2023

Show notes

Saied, Haroon and Chris wanted to find a way to give back to the THS community and "thank you" all for your support. We know that at times we can't and don't always answer questions in the "DMs" as well as we would like to. So, we posted a Q&A opportunity on our respective Instagram accounts. We were overwhelmed with the wonderful questions asked and we can't thank each and every single one of you enough. This show is literally funded by your small gestures. Honest five star reviews and your engagement make long nights of editing, mixing and mastering audio for streaming and managing social media accounts worth it. The Higher Standard podcast is what is today because you have enabled us to keep going. Since we got so many questions, we will be trying to do more Q&As and make actually attempt to do a live show on YouTube in the not too distant future. Until then, we hope you enjoy the episode.

Resources:

Everything You Need to Know About the Bond Market (The Motley Fool)

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield: What It IS and Why It Matters (Investopedia)

How the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note impacts mortgage rates (MCT Trading)

Fed’s interest rate history: The federal funds rate from 1981 to the present (Bankrate)

The Fed Holds, Housing Peaks & Saied Fisting Sep 26, 2023

Show notes

In a spectacular display of machismo, Saied gives Chris not one, but three separate fist pounds during this sensational episode. Maybe Saied was just happy that the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged? Maybe it was the Fed's terrible track record of forecasting what the economy is likely to do? I guess we will never know, but what you will know for sure after this show is that we may be in the biggest housing bubble ever, Zillow shifted their 2024 home price forecast down and 30-year mortgage rates have in fact hit 8%. Economic data, financial literacy and a healthy portion of fisting. What else could you ask for?

Resources:

The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here’s how it impacts your money (CNBC)

Take the Fed forecast with a grain of salt. It has a terrible track record (CNBC)

Biggest Housing Bubble Ever (Nick Gerli via X)

Zillow once again shifts its 2024 home price forecast. Here’s why (Fortune)

The Fed would be ‘flying blind’ on interest rate decisions after a government shutdown (CNBC)

30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Flirting with Historic Peak (Investopedia)

Fed Meeting, $100 Billion Loss & Saied is RFK, Jr. Sep 22, 2023

Show notes

Please place all seat back and tray tables in their locked and upright positions, because you're about to go on a long voyage of economic data baby! Saied, Chris and Haroon are back and they have a lot to talk about in this episode. The September 20th Fed announcement hasn't even happened yet and Goldman Sachs is already saying that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in November. So, naturally The Higher Standard had to chime in to the debate. Chris offers up a questionable segue into why a soft landing could not only be elusive, but then explains why the current Fed Policy is costing the Fed between $100 billion and $200 billion themselves. Chris and Saied then dive down deep in to the dark canyon of a hole that is the inverted yield curve where they discuss the wide spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries. Which also happens to be at it deepest inversion since 1981. Haroon provide an elegant hypothetical answer to an intimate personal question and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is ringing alarm bells.

Resources:

Fed unlikely to raise rates in November, says Goldman Sachs (Reuters)

Why a Soft Landing Could Prove Elusive (Wall Street Journal)

Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise (Reuters)

Economist says S&P 500 will sink 40% due to recession (Business News)

Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81 (Reuters)

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham rang the alarm on stocks and recession, warned about the housing market, and hailed Elon Musk's Tesla. Here are his 10 best quotes from a recent event (Business Insider)

The bond market has broken the longest time ever with a 10-year field, 3 month inversion at 212 days per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales via Instagram)

Inflation, Income, Home Prices & A 3 Star Review Sep 19, 2023

Show notes

With an uncharacteristically early recording time, the boys come in extra hot and caffeinated. Saied finally admits to being 1 of the podcast's one star reviews; however, the show did receive a real, legitimate 3 star review from a listener. We wanted to address it head on and talk about the data behind the insurance position which upset someone. They, of course, save the expletive filled rage for the end of the show. This episode covers all the underlying detail of the latest inflation print which continues to show that the real cost of living is likely higher for most consumers. Then Chris and Saied pivot to an article on banks having $1.2 trillion dollars in "hot" deposits which they believe signals a much larger concern. Home prices according to Zillow seem to suggest that there have been tremendous gains still despite even some areas having lived through minor corrections in recent months. What does this mean? Saied and Chris will tell you their thoughts. Make sure to stay tuned all the way to the end because this one gets extra sassy in the last quarter of the show.

Resources:

Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart (CNBC)

Banks Load Up on $1.2 Trillion in Risky ‘Hot’ Deposits (Wall Street Journal)

Real incomes fell last year. No wonder Americans were bummed out (Axios)

Home price shift, as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Lance Lambert via X)

August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected (CNBC)

Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows (CNBC)

A HUGE Mistake, Goldilocks & Haroon Returns Sep 15, 2023

Show notes

Haroon has returned and has already put in for his next PTO request in November where he thought he would be visiting the European country of Belize. While discovering that being Muslim is not an ethnicity, we quickly hop on over to a warning issued by JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon. Jamie D is suggesting that it would be a "huge mistake" to think the economy will boom. Yet, at the same time, new data suggests that the fall in home prices may already be over. Confused? Don't be, we explain what we think is happening. All three of us discuss the Fed's own economist's prediction of a "Goldilocks" scenario where we have no recession, low inflation, and positive growth. Then to cap the show Haroon provides some important life advice.

Resources:

Jamie Dimon says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out there (CNBC)

The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over (Wall Street Journal)

The US is on course to build more apartments than ever in 2023 (Chartr Daily Instagram)

Business Bankruptcies Soar in August as Rising Interest Rates Bite (Bloomberg)

The Fed's own economists now expect a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, low inflation, and positive growth(Business Insider)

The man who bought the NYSE just made a $11.9 billion bet that he can fast-track your mortgage for far less than you’re paying now (Fortune)

Airbnb, Beige Book, Roku, WeWork & A Bromance Sep 12, 2023

Show notes

In their second show without Haroon, who continues to be out on PTO in “The Sac,” Chris and Saied decide to crack a few of their own cans during the show in order to pay homage. Shortly after lamenting the value of Haroon’s contributions they jump in to New York City’s crackdown on Airbnb and what this could mean if other cities follow suit. They examine the Fed’s Beige Book data, what it tells us about the Fed’s perspective going into the September Fed meeting and give their predictions on whether or not there will be another 25 bps rate increase to Fed Funds. They then pivot to Roku’s stock jumping after laying off 10% of their workforce while WeWork is reportedly renegotiating all of its leases. The round out the show by reading on the National Association of Realtors new class action lawsuit, but stop short of a full analysis because they are going to need more time to review the legal filings. It is an episode chalked full of laughs and facts, so make sure to wear your manpon.

Resources:

New York City's crackdown on Airbnb and short-term rental goes into effect (Guardian)

Fed's Beige Book Shows Slower Activity Growth and Hiring in Peak Summer (Bloomberg)

Roku stock jumps after company says it will lay off 10% of workforce (CNBC)

WeWork CEO says company is ‘here to stay’ as it renegotiates ‘nearly all our leases’ (CNBC)

Monumental NAR lawsuit snags class action status (The Real Deal)

Oh Yeah!, Insurance Changes & Happiness Sep 08, 2023

Show notes

They boys open the show without Haroon who is once again out on PTO while he visits his in-laws in "Sac." They quickly jump in to a discussion regarding the changing landscape of home insurance in America. Many home insurers are starting to or have already cut natural disaster from policies as climate risks continue to mount. As a proxy, Chris and Saied leverage a Wall Street Journal article which asks the question "Are we ready for a $100 billion dollar catastrophe?" Global insured losses from natural disasters and the number of billion-dollar insured loss events worldwide have increased over time visibly. After all the negativity, Chris wanted to make a pivot in to something positive and highlights an article from CNBC which identifies the three things that Americans say define wealth in their mind. Shockingly none of them require making money, but most of them are a byproduct of making money. Without Haroon in the studio, you will need to pay homage to him by opening a beverage mid-show in order to cover for him in his obnoxious absence.

Resources:

The Fed's preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend (CNN Business)

Bigger Pockets x The Data Deli Instagram (Instagram)

Full impact of Fed hikes still to be seen in real economy, ex-vice chair Blinder says (Reuters)

Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow (The Washington Post)

Are We Ready for a $100 Billion Catastrophe? How About $200 Billion? (The Wall Street Journal)

Americans say these 3 things define wealth -none of them require making a lot of money (CNBC)

Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance (The Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in August as payrolls increased by 187,000 (CNBC)

Here's where the jobs are for August 2023 - in one chart (CNBC)

Shoppers pull back on 'big ticket' items as furniture, appliance sales lag (Yahoo! Finance)

99 Problems, But Mitch Ain't One Sep 05, 2023

Show notes

It was bad enough that Michael Burry - the investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the 2007 mortgage bond market - just took a $1.6 billion dollar short on the market again. Now, the man, the myth, the legend is that the great investor in world history - Warren Buffett - has just dumped $8 billion dollars of stock and is moving to a cash position. The boy think these are very telling signs of an impending recessionary economy by two men who know what they are doing. At the same time, a new report out states that 61% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck and US department stores are seeing higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending. It's a wild episode that is capped by a special collaboration between Mitch McConnell and Jay-Z.

Resources:

Warren Buffett just dumped $8 billion of stocks (here's why economists are worried) (The Street)

61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets (CNBC)

US department stores see higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending (Reuters)

US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline (Reuters)

U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 177,000 in August, below expectations, ADP says (CNBC)

US consumer spending in July surges; weekly jobless claims fall (Yahoo! Finance)

Jerome Powell Makes Threats, Zillow Is Insane & Haroon Drinks Water Sep 01, 2023

Show notes

The boys are off and running with shenanigans from the beginning. Haroon inadvertently opens his energy drink before the show started so he can't entertain you with his usual unnecessary interruptions, but don't worry, he filled his can with water for reasons we still don't fully understand. They spend a good amount of time recapping Jerome Powell's commentary from Jackson Hole, Wyoming which were clearly designed to strike fear in to the markets. One of their favorite economists, Mohamed El-Erian is very concerned that the Fed's actions to date may have 'destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand.' Which was a fantastic segue in to the complete trash nonsense that Zillow is attempting to market. What do you do when home affordability is at an all time low? Rates are rising, home values haven't come down. Well, if you're Zillow, you offer a 1% down payment program to lure in homebuyers so you can sell more leads to Realtors.

Resources:

Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’ (CNBC)

Jerome Powell says it ‘takes time’ for slowdown in rent rises to show up in the Fed’s inflation gauge (Market Watch)

Fed's Mester sees another rate hike, says rate cuts may have to wait (Reuters)

The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says (Business Insider)

Zillow offers 1% down payment to lure homebuyers as mortgage rates hit 22-year high (NY Post)

Goldman Sachs unloads another business acquired under CEO David Solomon (CNBC)

A 'valuation reset' hits the IPO market as Better stock crashes 90% after debut (Yahoo! Finance)

Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over (Wall Street Journal)