The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens - Nate Hagens

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Frankly Re: Franklys | Frankly #47 Oct 27, 2023

Show notes

Recorded October 27 2023

Description

In this forty-seventh Frankly, Nate reflects on…..Franklys. As real time global events move faster and faster, they alter the timing (and content!) of planned Frankly reflections on aspects of our global discourse. In light of this, Nate offers a raw take on events in Israel (and financial markets) and a growing list of upcoming topics relevant to the unfolding human predicament. The purpose of these Franklys is not to provide real time intel or analysis but is instead to continually provide a systems lens to inform the scout team of humans who seek an integrated world view to inform their actions. Our tendencies to focus on single issues - the war in Israel, the geo-political impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war, the growing financial crisis and debt, global heating - challenges our ability to build a broader awareness of how these pieces fit together and shine light on the viable paths we can still take to the future. Is it possible to focus less on productivity and more on awareness and reflection? Can we effectively change the consciousness of those in power? How can we attempt to navigate the ever-shorter road to the Great Simplification?

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/47-frankly-re-franklys

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/ZJbKVu7vbLk

Sir David King: "Global Heating: The Science and the Response" Oct 25, 2023

Show notes

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate scientist and policy ambassador Sir David King to unpack the current situation regarding Earth's climate system and human response (or lack thereof) to the accelerating heating of the atmosphere. While there are many uncertainties this field still grapples with, the fundamentals of the rising average global temperature as a response to increasing man-made greenhouse emissions are widely recognized by the global scientific community. Yet - especially in the United States - climate change remains a contentious issue, making it an even tougher political topic with no easy solutions. What is the basic science behind our understanding of the atmosphere? Will we resort to geoengineering to avert the worst climate outcomes - and which plans look the most promising? What are the implications of global heating for the coming decades and beyond?

About Sir. David King

Sir David King is an Emeritus Professor of Physical Chemistry at the University of Cambridge. He is the Chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, Founder of the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge, and an Affiliate Partner of SYSTEMIQ Limited. He was the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser from 2000-2007 and the Foreign Secretary's Special Representative on Climate Change from 2013-2017. He also spearheaded a collaborative program called Mission Innovation, which involved 25 countries and the EU to create a publicly funded £23bn pa research and development international exercise aimed at delivering all technologies needed to complete the transition into a fossil-fuel-free world economy. He has been a Fellow of the Royal Society since 1991 and a Foreign Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences since 2002. Sir Dave was knighted in 2003 and made "Officier dans l'ordre national de la Légion d'Honneur" in 2009. Recently, he was also named The American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022 Hamburg Awardee for Science Diplomacy.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/u7jETRJrkmk

Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/95-sir-david-king

Chuck Watson: "War, Rumours of War, and Governance" Oct 20, 2023

Show notes

On this Special episode Nate speaks once again with risk expert Chuck Watson for a critical assessment of the unfolding situation around Israel which adds to the rapidly escalating dangers of our current geopolitical landscape. As tensions rise, the potential risks that geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East poses could spill over into energy, economic systems, and our social fabric - Chuck lends his deep expertise and decades of experience to shed light on these complex dynamics. How do our individual perspectives of where history begins influence who we see as "good" or "evil" and is it even possible to find an unbiased source of 'truth'? What does Western diplomacy look like in a world no longer based on fear - and will the United States risk being stretched too thin trying to preserve the unipolar world of past generations? How do we even begin to navigate the minefield of geopolitical tensions that seem to be growing daily so as to maintain some sort of stability that avoids catastrophic outcomes in coming years?

About Chuck Watson

Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.

Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/94-chuck-watson

Joris van der Schot: "Oil Refining 101 and Other Energy Stories" Oct 18, 2023

Show notes

On this episode, Nate is joined by energy industry professional Joris van der Schot to explain the basics of oil refineries, their limitations, and other cultural narratives about energy. Oil is the lifeblood of our economies, yet most of us know so little about how it actually becomes all the different final products that we use. Just how massive is the scale of our energy consumption? How flexible and resilient are oil refineries to shifting oil demand? Can we keep an open mind to realistic and helpful innovations while also grounding our preparations for the future in practical energy strategy ahead of The Great Simplification?

About Joris van der Schot

Joris van der Schot is a former Royal Dutch Shell executive with over a decade of international experience in the oil industry, where he held roles as a control systems engineer, corporate strategy advisor, refinery economist and lastly, the company's global aviation gasoline supply manager.After a sabbatical year in Provence, Joris left the oil industry and set out on a quest to accelerate the clean energy transition through breakthrough technology. He currently works at french scale-up Energy Pool, providing storage and other flexibility services that enable the integration of renewable energy on the electricity grid.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/kmzzIWkTLyU

More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/93-joris-van-der-schot

Food & Community in the Ruins: Dougald Hine, Chris Smaje, Pella Thiel | Reality Roundtable #05 Oct 15, 2023

Show notes

On this Reality Roundtable, philosopher and writer Dougald Hine, social scientist and farmer Chris Smaje, and ecologist and farmer Pella Thiel join Nate to discuss the future of food and community. Our disconnected relationship to agriculture and our neighbors have been shaped by a modern industrial society fueled by surplus hydrocarbon energy. What will these relationships look like in a lower energy future, where we need to once again work with each other and the land, rather than in isolation. Can we learn from history to celebrate with each other in times of abundance and find strength in community in times of need? In the present world where people are in constant search for meaning and purpose, what are strategies to find joy in simplicity and well-being through the growing and sharing of food?

About Dougald Hine

Dougald Hine is a social thinker, writer and speaker. After an early career as a BBC journalist, he co-founded organizations including the Dark Mountain Project and a school called HOME. His latest book is At Work in the Ruins: Finding Our Place in the Time of Science, Climate Change, Pandemics & All the Other Emergencies (2023). He co-hosts The Great Humbling podcast and publishes a Substack called Writing Home.

About Chris Smaje

Chris Smaje is a writer, social scientist and small-scale farmer, co-running a mixed holding in Somerset, southwest England. He's the author of A Small Farm Future (2020) and Saying NO to a Farm-Free Future (2023), both published by Chelsea Green. He blogs at and is contactable via www.chrissmaje.com.

About Pella Thiel

Pella Thiel is a maverick ecologist, part-time farmer, full-time activist and teacher in ecopsychology. She is the co-founder of swedish hubs of international networks like Swedish Transition Network and End Ecocide Sweden and a knowledge expert in the UN Harmony with Nature programme. Pella was awarded the swedish Martin Luther King Award in 2023 and the Environmental Hero of the year 2019.

Watch on YouTube

https://youtu.be/NVeCw-Ljenk

Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr05-hine-smaje-thiel

The Middle East: Stormwatch | Frankly #46 Oct 13, 2023

Show notes

In this Frankly, Nate shares his perspective on the recent events in the Middle East and how they could lead to a shortening of the timeline to The Great Simplification. For those fortunate to live outside the direct impacts of these conflicts, many feel pressure to stay informed about this turbulent, global landscape. Is it possible to also remain grounded in the present realities of our daily lives? How do individual responses to this past week's geopolitical events vary depending on the livelihood demands of the here and now? Is it possible to live simply in our own lives while also engaging globally ahead of the Great Simplification?

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/46-the-middle-east-stormwatch

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/wODlwoKJEE0

Arthur Berman: "BRICS+, Strategic Petroleum Reserve & Metaphysics" Oct 11, 2023

Show notes

On this episode, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the state of global oil - from BRICS+ and shale oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil investment. As Art says, 'oil is the economy' and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system. How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larger energy policy blunders? What are the current dynamics affecting oil prices and how will this affect the long term out-look of oil availability?

Please note: this episode was recorded prior to the Israel/Palestine events of last weekend.

About Arthur Berman

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/n-IetuaYLmw

More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/92-art-berman

One Ring to Rule Them All | Frankly #45 Oct 06, 2023

Show notes

In this Frankly, Nate refers to a favorite timeless book series, The Lord of the Rings, to describe 'the nine rings for mortal men' - behavioral tendencies that are common among humans based on our evolutionary nature but become counterproductive within modern culture. These traits drive the growth of the Superorganism through 'one ring to rule them all', the amassing of power and the synergy of agricultural surplus, fossil energy, money, and Artificial Intelligence. Can this out of control power dynamic be broken and redirected away from the influence of the One Ring? Will we have the courage and wisdom to stop our drive to amass power as we approach the Great Simplification?

For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/45-one-ring-to-rule-them-all

To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/zXgIAQZu3I4

Luke Gromen: "Peak Cheap Oil and the Global Reserve Currency" Oct 04, 2023

Show notes

On this episode, financial analyst Luke Gromen joins Nate to discuss how the availability of cheap energy has underpinned our current financial architecture and expectations - and what peak cheap oil implies for the future. A central part of this story is the rise of the US dollar as a global reserve currency tightly linked with the ability to purchase oil - subsequently leading to the US becoming a major exporter of debt. How have countries with economies based on natural resources and manufacturing differed in their response to geopolitical uncertainty in comparison to those who are based around finance and the service industry? What might the response be from countries holding US debt in anticipation of a declining oil supply? What does this mean for the future of global currencies in a simplified global economy and a finance system that will eventually need to be re-tethered to the finite nature of Earth?

About Luke Gromen:

Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of research firm Forest For The Trees, LLC, whose goal is to aggregate a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for clients. Luke founded FFTT to apply what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a "unique ability to connect the dots" during a time when he saw an increasing "silo-ing" of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America. Luke has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/91-luke-gromen

To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/bIq0o40Jo80

Nick Haddad: "Insects - A Silent Extinction" Sep 27, 2023

Show notes

On this episode, Nate is joined by Professor Nick Haddad, a conservation scientist with a focus on butterflies and other insects. Nick unpacks what decades of research have indicated about the declining state of insect populations, which act as the foundation of critical ecosystem functions. The overlooked degradation of butterflies, beetles, bees, ants, ladybugs, and countless other species have huge ripple effects across our local and global ecological functions - from a loss of bird populations to a reduced ability to grow food. Why are we not more concerned about the health and vitality of these critical organisms? Can humans - or life as we know it - survive without these little creatures? What can we do as individuals, businesses, and governments to help insects rebound as quickly as possible, and in turn strengthen the health of everything else.

About Nick Haddad

Professor Nick Haddad is co-lead of the Long Term Ecological Research site at Kellogg Biological Station at Michigan State University. He leads decades-long, landscape-scale experiments that bring scientific principles to conservation actions. He studies how landscape diversity, including prairie strips through croplands, affect biodiversity, especially of plants and insects, and of ecosystem services including pollination, biocontrol, and decomposition. For three decades he has led the world's largest experiment testing the role of landscape corridors in increasing dispersal of most plant and animal species, and increasing plant diversity. He has conducted long-term restoration experiments to guide conservation of rare butterflies in the face of climate and land use change. Nick brings together ideas in science and management through ConservationCorridor.org.

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/_qzS5Nig4_w

Show notes and more info: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/90-nick-haddad

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