War & Peace

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German Foreign Policy After Merkel Nov 09, 2021

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After sixteen years at Europe’s helm, Angela Merkel is stepping down from power. The federal election in September also marked an end to the long-term hold her political party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had had over German politics. Merkel’s likely successor, Olaf Scholz, is now looking to forge a “traffic light coalition” between his Social Democratic Party (the SPD, whose trademark color is red), the Greens and the Liberals (yellow). While Scholz and his allies have made ambitious commitments to modernise Germany, it remains unclear what, if anything, this portends for foreign policy. Foreign affairs have so far taken the back seat during coalition negotiations, eclipsed by domestic concerns. Still, Germany’s new chancellor will be forced, however reluctantly, to contend with tremendous geopolitical shifts on the continent and further away.

This week on War & Peace,Hugh and Olga are joined by Jana Puglierin, Head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin Office, to make sense of Germany’s future under a new chancellor. They discuss the deprioritisation of foreign policy, possible sticking points between coalition members, the future of the transatlantic alliance with the United States, and increasingly bitter relations with Russia, Turkey and China. They ask whether Scholz’s chancellorship will chart a new course for Europe, and how Germany and the continent are poised to contend with a world of great-power competition.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s work on Europe and its neighbours by checking out the regional pages on the left hand side of our website. You can follow Jana’s work on the ECFR website.

If you want to hear more about Merkel’s legacy, make sure to check out EuroPod's latest podcast, available in four languages.

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Europe’s Balancing Act in Western Sahara Oct 27, 2021

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Exactly a year ago, in November 2020, an old conflict on the south-western edge of Europe burst back into flames. After almost 30 years of ceasefire, the pro-independence Polisario Front and Morocco went back to battle stations in Western Sahara. European states have so far taken a timid stance in response, preferring not to involve themselves in another intractable conflict. Nonetheless, the new focus on Western Sahara is unsettling many relationships, particularly with Morocco. For its part, the Kingdom has taken a hardline response to even the most limited of criticisms: Rabat’s ambassador to Germany was even recalled after a public spat in May. A recent verdict from the European Court of Justice excluding Sahrawi goods and fish from a trade deal risks further ratcheting up tensions. So, how will conflict in Western Sahara affect Europe’s relations with Morocco?

This week, Hugh Pope is joined by Intissar Fakir, Director of the Middle East Institute’s North Africa and Sahel Program, and Riccardo Fabiani, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for North Africa. They discuss Morocco’s successful hardball strategy, the Polisario’s desperate gambit, Rabat’s troubled alliance with Spain and France, and the ramifications of the Trump administration’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty. They ask whether Europe’s arms-length stance is another example of regional powers flexing ever-growing influence at the expense of the “big players” in the Old Continent’s capitals.

For more information explore Crisis Group’s work on Europe, Morocco, and Western Sahara, by checking out the regional pages on the left hand side of our website. Make sure to take a look at our recent. report ‘Relaunching Negotiations’.

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S2 Episode 5 : Without media freedom, there is no democracy Oct 25, 2021

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The EU may still enjoy the status of the safest place for journalists in the world, but this may easily change as the current worrying trend of intimidating, harassing and even killing reporters seems to be on the rise. Our guest is investigative journalist Matthew Caruana Galizia, whose mother Daphne Caruana Galizia was brutally murdered in 2017 trying to expose corruption in Malta. Julie Majerczak, head of the Brussels office of Reporters without Borders, told us the murders of journalists – with 16 killed in the EU since 2015 -- were just a tip of the iceberg, as they are increasingly the victims of different forms of pressure, abuse and censorship. We asked EESC member Christian Moos why defending media freedoms was of such importance for the EU.

Is there something the EU should do and should budgetary sanctions be applied to governments who stifle critical voices and press liberties? Our guests tell it all in our latest episode "Without media freedom, there is no democracy".

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The Migration Lessons of Afghanistan and Syria Oct 12, 2021

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In 2015, over a million people fleeing conflict arrived at Europe’s borders. The continent showed itself to be woefully underprepared, struggling to address the unfolding catastrophe at its doorstep: as decision makers wrangled over asylum quotas, a humanitarian crisis escalated to dramatic proportions. Six years later observers fear that “another 2015” could be imminent after Kabul’s fall to the Taliban.

In this episode of War & Peace Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope welcome Liz Collett, Senior Adviser to the Director of the International Organization for Migration to ask how seriously we should take contemporary parallels with 2015. They also talk about the continued impact of the pandemic on global mobility, how climate change is transforming the future of migration, and ask how states can better protect both vulnerable migrants and internally displaced people.

For more information explore Crisis Group’s work on Europe, Afghanistan and its neighbours, check out the regional pages on the left hand side of our website.

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What's at Stake for Russia in a Taliban-led Afghanistan? Sep 28, 2021

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The Taliban’s dramatic toppling of the Afghan government prompted much soul-searching in the West. But for those closer to Kabul, anxieties about how the Taliban’s takeover will shape the region’s future are even more acute. Where some see risk, however, others see considerable opportunity. Russia’s position, for one, remains ambiguous: while Moscow seems unlikely to formally recognise the new government, it has cultivated a cordial relationship with the Taliban. For their part, Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors seek to balance possible economic and political collaboration and looming security threats.

So, as the dust settles in Afghanistan, what’s driving policymakers in Russia and Central Asia? In this new episode of War & Peace, Olga Oilker and Hugh Pope are joined by Ivan Safranchuk, Senior Fellow at Moscow’s Institute of International Studies, to discuss the role they will play in shaping Afghanistan’s future and to ask whether the country can avoid becoming the arena for yet more great-power competition.

For more information explore Crisis Group’s Afghanistan, Russia and Central Asia regional pages and make sure to read Ivan’s latest article here.

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Big Data and Global Security Sep 14, 2021

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As rapidly developing data technology outpaces governance structures and their ability to adapt, the long-term impact of increasingly data-driven economies on security and society remains uncertain. What happens when personal data ends up in the hands of those in power?

In the first episode of the third season of War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Jim Balsillie, co-founder of Research in Motion, now known as BlackBerry, and founder of the Balsillie School of International Affairs, the Centre for Digital Rights and the Arctic Research Foundation, to discuss the intersection of technology and governance. They talk about the new global rule of law framework that was created to regulate technology and the dangers still presented by exploitative tech firms and anti-democratic governments looking for asymmetrical leverage. Jim also explores how data autonomy should be balanced with the ideals of democracy and how future generations will look back with concern on this era of lax personal data security.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s Technology and War global issue page.

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S2 Episode 4: The National Recovery and Resilience Plans: three recipes for success Jul 23, 2021

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What can be done to make the National Recovery and Resilience Plans a success? The EESC's trio of group presidents have some answers! Listen to the insights of Employers' leader Stefano Mallia, Workers' helmsman Oliver Röpke and Diversity Europechief Séamus Boland. A successful roll-out of these plans will enable the European Union to emerge stronger and more cohesive from the crisis.

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Defusing Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean Jul 06, 2021

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Tensions flared in the eastern Mediterranean in mid-2020 when Turkey sent seismic research ships into waters contested with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. While neither Turkey nor Greece seeks war with the other, competition over sovereignty and natural resources is reviving long-running geopolitical rivalries.

To discuss the various interests at play in their maritime standoff and how actors such as the EU and U.S. can help push the parties toward reconciliation, Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope are joined by Nigar Göksel, project director for Turkey. Together, they draw on key findings detailed in Crisis Group’s latest report on the issue – “Turkey-Greece: From Maritime Brinkmanship to Dialogue” – and assess whether recently restarted talks between President Erdogan and Prime Minister Mitsotakis signal a positive turn in strained relations and might lower the risks of regional conflict.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Eastern Mediterranean Rivalries page.

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Understanding the Russian-origin Muslim Diaspora Jun 22, 2021

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Successive waves of Muslim-origin migrants have fled Russia since the 1990s. While some simply sought a better life, hundreds of thousands left due to conflict or persecution. Jean-François Ratelle, professor at the University of Ottawa, joins Olga and Hugh for an in-depth look at the resulting diaspora across Western Europe, Ukraine and Turkey.

Together they unpack Crisis Group’s latest findings, from the various obstacles migrants face in transit and their increasingly cold reception in host countries to the way gender norms have evolved once settled. Jean-François explains that by oversimplifying the needs and experiences of such a diverse group, government policy has tended to alienate rather than support Muslims of Russian origin, to everyone’s detriment. These unique insights and ongoing research, he hopes, will help temper security concerns by informing a more nuanced approach to integrating these communities in their respective contexts.

For more information, browse Crisis Group’s Special Coverage page for our developing series on the Russian-origin Muslim diaspora.

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The Under-loved Logic of Nuclear-free Zones Jun 08, 2021

Show notes

In 2004, the UN Security Council recognised that the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and their means of delivery constitutes a threat to international peace and security. While common discourse has generally normalised the existence and purpose of nuclear weapons, a growing movement within international relations is calling for a world without them. Is a new normal under construction?

María Antonieta Jáquez, counsellor at the permanent mission of Mexico to the UN and member of the Mexican foreign service since 1994, tells Olga and Hugh that this is already the norm for most of the world. In fact, the shift against nuclear proliferation gained traction as early as the 1960s, underpinned by principles of international humanitarian law and embodied in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). While 116 countries have signed such treaties since then, the question remains: have nuclear weapons really deterred wars? Jáquez makes the case for global disarmament and shares what inspires her diplomatic efforts to bring about a new reality in a field often too preoccupied with theories of deterrence and power projection.

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