War & Peace

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Police, Protests & Populism in Central Asia Feb 16, 2021

Show notes

Central Asia is no exception to the protests that have emerged with renewed vigour on a global scale, a phenomenon made more visible against the backdrop of COVID-19 restrictions.

Although the grievances driving them are context-specific, deep socio-political divisions and populist leaders are recurring themes, says Dr. Erica Marat. A professor at the U.S. National Defense University and a post-Soviet security expert, she joins Olga and Hugh to discuss what connections can be drawn between collective action and protest-policing dynamics spanning the U.S., Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.

Central Asian regimes bear the legacy of the Soviet era, and yet even the most autocratic among them are in constant adaptation, borrowing tactics from around the world to survive. Protest movements are evolving in the same way. Erica shares her findings of these trends, explaining the rise of ‘uncivil’ society, who the so-called “Kyrgyz Trump” is, and why Kazakhstan is a repatriation model for ISIS-affiliated citizens.

For more information:

Explore Crisis Group’s regional analysis on our Central Asia page

Erica Marat, The Politics of Police Reform: Society against the State in Post-Soviet Countries, Oxford University Press

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S2 Episode 1: MFF: the good, the bad and the ugly Feb 10, 2021

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"The Grassroots View" podcast opens its second season with an episode dedicated to the new European Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). Our four guests tell us what is the good, the bad, and the ugly in this long-awaited agreement.

Jan Olbrycht, MEP and co-rapporteur on the MFF for the European Parliament, explains why the negotiations were so difficult and also underlines the importance of the new EU4Health program. Stefano Palmieri, president of the ECO section at the European Economic and Social Committee, sees the opportunity for modernizing the European economic and social system. He sets out the vision of civil society together with two other speakers: Gabriella Civico, member of the Steering Committee of Civil Society Europe (CSE), and Zsuzsanna Szabó, journalist and member of Res Publica Nowa Foundation. They share similar concerns about the European Union's new own resources and the weakness of the new Rule of Law conditionality mechanism.

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Reviving Dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia Feb 02, 2021

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Thirteen years after Kosovo broke away from Serbia to become de facto independent, political inertia continues to stall the largely European-driven dialogue process aimed at reaching an understanding between the two parties and thus securing lasting stability for the region. On the back of our recently published report, “Relaunching the Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue”, Crisis Group’s Balkans expert Marko Prelec joins Olga and Hugh to examine why that is.

Taking a step back from the state of talks today, Marko lays out the historical context for the current impasse, and what the obstacles have been to changing the uneasy status quo. Beyond leaving the door wide open for the dispute to escalate, Kosovo’s unresolved status has tainted domestic political discourse and continues to bar both it and Serbia from accessing the European Union and otherwise participating in the international community.

Failure to breathe new life into talks also comes at a human cost, he explains, having met people on both sides whose lives are curtailed by mutual non-recognition. Does the new year bear any signs that Pristina and Belgrade are willing to make the compromises necessary to resolve their dispute?

Tune in to find out!

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Turkey’s Trials and Errors Jan 19, 2021

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Ankara’s assertive foreign policy choices delight many at home. But they can puzzle and anger its counterparts as Turkey experiments with increasingly militarised postures in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, the South Caucasus, and the ongoing wars in Libya and Syria.

Ambassador Selim Yenel, Turkish ambassador to the EU until 2017 and now president of the Istanbul-based think-tank Global Relations Forum, joins Olga and Hugh to help make sense of what is driving Ankara in a changing world. Together they dive into the making of regional power, the costs of undercutting dialogue with hard-power moves, the imperative of undergoing reforms at home, and what can be done to revive Turkey’s EU accession process.

Arguing that Turkey’s recent shifts have been more reactive than proactive, Ambassador Yenel urges all sides to cool down rhetoric and calls for a return to more empathetic diplomacy. Even if NATO member Ankara has made mistakes – for instance in the purchase of S-400 ground-to-air missiles from Russia – he says others have too, and thus Turkey deserves to be met halfway.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s Turkey page and visit the Global Relations Forum website.

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Europe Has Much to Prove in 2021 Jan 05, 2021

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With the international system in major flux as we turn the page on 2020, Ambassador Gérard Araud believes one main thing is clear: 2021 opens a new, more dangerous chapter.

A Crisis Group trustee who represented France on the world stage for over three decades, most recently as ambassador to the United States (2014-2019), Araud gives Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope a decidedly skeptical take on the state of power politics, describing destabilizing international rivalry, leaderlessness, and descent toward the law of the jungle.

Together they also touch on why Brexit has only just begun its destructive path, how the impact of COVID-19 is accelerating the surge in nationalism testing Western societies, and how the interlocking crises in the Eastern Mediterranean reveal where the European Union’s strengths and weaknesses really lie.

Ambassador Araud does highlight one hope: that the urgency of transnational risks, particularly on the question of climate change, could propel a multilateral coalescence around ways to address them.

For more information, read Ambassador Gérard Araud’s weekly column in Le Point.

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Personal Reflections on 2020, between Europe and the Middle East Dec 22, 2020

Show notes

“I think I should kill you”.

So began one especially fraught encounter in Hugh Pope’s critically acclaimed memoir, Dining with Al Qaeda, now out in an updated edition. He joins Olga Oliker as co-host-turned-guest for this week’s episode to reflect on how his three decades of reporting in the broader Middle East remain relevant for Western readers grappling to understand it today.

Olga and Hugh then reflect on the year that was and how COVID-19 became a phenomenon that has both disrupted life as we knew it and accelerated broader geopolitical trends. While physical borders have been reinforced and personal horizons shrunk to the here and now, the unprecedented reality of lockdown in a digital era has also allowed for a reimagined sense of identity and community.

What big questions remain to be unpacked on War & Peace in 2021?

Tune in to find out!

For more information:

Visit www.hughpope.com to find out more about Dining with Al Qaeda: Making Sense of the Middle East

See our The Covid-19 Pandemic and Deadly Conflict page

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Twenty-first Century Threats Dec 08, 2020

Show notes

Sir John Sawers, former chief of the British secret service MI6 and Executive Chairman at Newbridge Advisory, joins Olga and Hugh for a dynamic conversation on the changing global balance of power and emerging threats that will shape multilateral diplomacy.

Drawing on 40 years of international service, Sir John describes how Western interventionism has evolved since the early 1990s, the implications of a rising China and declining U.S. for the international system, what motivates and hinders Russia at home and abroad, as well as how medium-sized powers are exploiting these fluctuations along the way.

Sir John also outlines a major concern: how will advances in the virtual sphere increasingly impact the physical world?

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The Future of NATO Nov 24, 2020

Show notes

The geopolitical landscape has transformed dramatically since NATO was established in 1949. As a transatlantic alliance that seeks to safeguard democratic values and the rule of law, how well has it adapted through the years and what should its priorities be going forward?

Who better to dive into these questions with than Rose Gottemoeller? The former NATO Deputy Secretary-General (2016-2019) was the organization’s most senior woman official to date. She was previously the chief U.S. negotiator on arms control and is today a distinguished lecturer at Stanford University and research fellow at the Hoover Institution. She joins Olga and Hugh to share her thoughts on the challenges of rebuilding the transatlantic relationship, responding to emerging threats outside of NATO’s traditional mandate, and preserving its core principles in an ever-changing world.

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Europe’s Impact Depends on Internal Strength, Not the New U.S. President Nov 10, 2020

Show notes

The prospect of a Biden administration brings new opportunities for European security and foreign policy, but many challenges remain. Joining Olga and Hugh to discuss the evolution of U.S.-Europe relations and its impact on the world is Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and Special Adviser to EU High Representative Josep Borrell.

The EU is tethered in some ways to U.S. leadership, but not entirely, says Nathalie. Developing its internal strengths will be key to a greater impact on the conflicts and crises unfolding within its sphere of influence.

A steady decline in the American-centred liberal world order has meanwhile made way for competing visions of the values and principles that underpin global politics. Where does this leave European hopes that a Biden administration will strengthen multilateralism?

Tune in to find out!

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Why Gender Matters in the Fight Against Terrorism Oct 27, 2020

Show notes

2020 marks two decades since the formal integration of gender into the UN’s mandate of conflict prevention and resolution. According to Aleksandra Dier, Gender Coordinator at the UN Security Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), the inclusion of gender-sensitive analysis has lagged far behind in the global effort to understand and fight terrorism.

She joins Olga Oliker and Hugh Pope for a wide-ranging conversation on the value of gender as a cross-cutting lens in the counter-terrorism field, touching on how extremist groups across the ideological spectrum exploit gender dynamics and norms in their recruitment strategies, the gendered impact of counter-terrorism measures and how well legislation at the national level is keeping up with these insights.

For more information, see the UN Analytical Brief on the prosecution of ISIL-linked women at https://www.un.org/sc/ctc/ and explore Crisis Group’s Gender & Conflict page.

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