The Downballot

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The Kansas abortion earthquake, with Quinn Yeargain Aug 04, 2022

Show notes

Kansas rocked the political world on Tuesday night, rejecting an attempt to amend the state constitution to strip away the right to an abortion in a massive landslide. On this week's edition of The Downballot, we pick apart the vote with law professor Quinn Yeargain, an expert on state constitutions. Yeargain explains how the amendment came to be on the ballot, what might've caused the huge spike in voter turnout, and what lessons Democrats should take away from the election (hint: abortion rights are popular, so lean in to them).

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's other key races, including Trump picks prevailing in Senate races in Arizona and Missouri (if you allow that "ERIC" nonsense); a pro-impeachment House Republican going down to defeat in a Michigan seat Democrats are now better-positioned to flip in November; and the return of the notorious Kris Kobach, who narrowly won the GOP nod for Kansas attorney general—and could once again jeopardize his party's chances in a race Republicans have no business losing.

Episode transcript is available here.

My Big Fat August Primary Preview, with Jeff Singer Jul 28, 2022

Show notes

Whoa, mama! August has so, so many juicy primaries on tap, which is why we've brought Daily Kos Elections Editor Jeff Singer back to discuss all the best races for this week's edition of The Downballot. There's the GOP battle for Arizona's governorship, where Trump's pick has been absolutely slayed by her drag queen ex-friend; two pro-impeachment Republicans in Washington state trying to keep their political careers alive; a heavyweight battle between two 30-year veteran incumbents in New York City; and lots, lots more.

Co-host David Nir recaps the back-to-back dropouts in Wisconsin's Democratic primary for Senate that have solidified Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes as the undisputed frontrunner. He also criticizes the handwringing over Democrats' meddling in a Michigan primary, saying it's not the Democratic Party's responsibility to make sure Republicans nominate sensible candidates—that's the GOP's job (if it even cares to). David Beard, meanwhile, previews the snap election just called in Italy, where the right looks set to perform well.

Episode transcript is available here.

How state Sen. Jeff Smith went to prison and devoted himself to reform Jul 21, 2022

Show notes

Our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot is former Missouri state Sen. Jeff Smith, who spent a year in federal prison stemming from a campaign finance violation and devoted himself to criminal justice reform upon his release. Smith tells us about the grave problems his experience behind bars showed him that are in desperate need of redress and why reformers have zero margin for error. He also dives into Missouri's midterm elections to explain why Eric Greitens—whom he's known since childhood—is such a dangerous candidate, and why he can win despite his staggering flaws.

Co-host David Beard recaps Maryland's primaries, some of which still haven't been called, and dissects the House vote recognizing same-sex marriage as a fundamental right, which saw a number of telling Republican votes both for and against. David Nir, meanwhile, examines the huge second-quarter fundraising gap that still favors Democrats despite the pro-GOP political environment and also looks at the first poll of a key abortion rights ballot measure in Kansas that will go before voters on Aug. 2.

Episode transcript is available here.

How the DCCC helps Democrats win the House, with Jason Bresler Jul 14, 2022

Show notes

This week, The Downballot talks with Jason Bresler, who was political director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee during the 2018 wave that saw the party retake the House. Bresler explains how exactly the DCCC helps candidates, from start to finish; the key moments of 2018 that convinced him the House would flip; and the advice he'd give to Democrats heading into a difficult election cycle. Fascinating fact: The D-Trip will often work with multiple candidates in the same district to aid their campaign launches.

Co-host David Nir dissects the shocking resignation of New York's top judge and what Democrats must do to ensure this conservative high court moves in a more progressive direction. He also checks in on Michigan, where activists just submitted a record number of signatures to get an amendment on the ballot that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. David Beard, meanwhile, previews some key Maryland primaries and updates us on the fallout of Boris Johnson's departure as prime minister of the U.K.

Episode transcript is available here.

How to elect more Black women, with Ruby Powell-Dennis Jul 07, 2022

Show notes

On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Ruby Powell-Dennis, founder of the Elect Black Women PAC. Powell-Dennis tells us about her inspiration for creating the group, the work it does to help elect its endorsed candidates at all levels of the ballot, and the particular challenges faced by Black women running for office—including whether to even run in the first place.

David Nir also homes in on races where abortion is on the ballot this year, quite literally: Kansas and Michigan are just two states where voters will decide whether their state constitutions should recognize a right to an abortion. David Beard, meanwhile, discusses the good and bad of election forecasting models and recaps one of the wildest days in U.K. political history—whose fallout is still reverberating.

Episode transcript.

What Dems should do about Dobbs + Pennsylvania deep dive, with Adam Bonin Jun 30, 2022

Show notes

How could we not discuss the Supreme Court's evisceration of abortion rights on this week's episode of The Downballot? Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard talk about why Democratic leaders must articulate a clear plan for the election outcomes they need—specifically, a Senate majority that will reform the filibuster—and what they intend to do if voters deliver, as well as the importance of waiting for more data before we draw conclusions about what the Dobbs ruling means for November. We also dissect one early data point—a surprisingly close special election for a red House district in Nebraska—and recap several of Tuesday's key primaries.

We're also joined by Pennsylvania election law attorney Adam Bonin, a longtime Daily Kos contributor who knows the ins and outs of every race in the Keystone State. Adam recounts a recent shock victory for voting rights he helped bring about at the Supreme Court; explains why a trio of state Supreme Court races all the way back in 2015 paved the way for un-gerrymandered legislative maps in 2022 and updates us on Democrat John Fetterman's campaign to flip the state's open Senate seat.

Episode transcript.

What the slow-poke states did in redistricting, with David Jarman Jun 23, 2022

Show notes

Redistricting has finally come to an end, so it's time for us to catch up on what all the slow-poke states did with their new congressional maps on this week's episode of The Downballot. We're talking with Daily Kos Elections contributing editor David Jarman, who walks us through the whipsaw changes in New York, which saw a Democratic gerrymander replaced with a court-drawn map; Ron DeSantis' extreme efforts to rig Florida's districts in violation of the state constitution; and an Ohio map that offers Democrats an interesting pickup opportunity in the Cincinnati area.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap another disastrous night for Donald Trump in Georgia, where three of his favored candidates all lost in runoffs—including one he may have accidentally endorsed; a bizarre drop-out in Alaska that's transformed its first-ever top-four race into a top-three affair instead, and a historic race in Colombia that saw the country elect its first-ever left-wing president.

Episode transcript.

Why Wisconsin is so dang important, with Ben Wikler Jun 16, 2022

Show notes

No state regularly hosts as many hotly contested elections as Wisconsin, which is why we're talking to state Democratic Party chair Ben Wikler about all of this year's key races on this week's episode of The Downballot. He tells us about everything his organization does to ensure year-round investment in Democratic infrastructure; details the state of play in the battle to defeat Sen. Ron Johnson and re-elect Gov. Tony Evers; and previews a critical race for the state Supreme Court next year that could flip control from conservatives to progressives.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap several recent elections, including Sarah Palin's first-place finish in the special primary for Alaska's lone House seat, the defeat of a pro-impeachment Republican congressman in South Carolina, and a special election where the GOP picked up a Democratic-held House seat in heavily Latino south Texas.

Episode transcript.

Jumbo June primary preview, with Jeff Singer Jun 09, 2022

Show notes

June is a jumbo primary month, so we've once again brought Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer on this week's edition of The Downballot to preview all of the major races. There's the perennial loser (but one-time winner!) Danny Tarkanian's quest to oust a sitting GOP congressman in rural Nevada; Republican Rep. Mo Brooks' attempt to come back from the dead in the Alabama Senate runoff; two very different member-vs.-member House primaries in Illinois; and a whole heck of a lot more.

Of course, there were also primaries this week, so naturally co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recapped the biggies: two Republican congressmen in Mississippi who were forced into runoffs, a high-profile former Trump cabinet official who might lose a comeback bid, and a crushing defeat for a South Dakota ballot measure designed to make it harder for progressives to pass other ballot measures.

Episode transcript.

Re-air: How did it all begin? A brief history of Daily Kos, with Markos Moulitsas Jun 02, 2022

Show notes

This episode originally aired on February 10, 2022.

We're celebrating our 20th anniversary for a week longer by re-airing the inaugural episode of The Downballot. In this episode, co-hosts David Nir Nir and David Beard chat with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas about the history of both Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, and why we do the work that we do.

Episode transcript.

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