The Downballot

Latest Episodes:

How Democrats are winning the abortion ad wars, with Kelly Gibson Oct 13, 2022

Show notes

Abortion has been the number one topic for campaign ads this year, so we're talking with veteran ad maker Kelly Grace Gibson, the founder of the women-led Stronger Than Comms, about how Democrats are pressing their advantage on this week's edition of The Downballot. Gibson walks us through the nuts and bolts of how ads actually get made; how Democrats have shown unusual message discipline on abortion while simultaneously tailoring their messages to different audiences; and why she has hope for some progressive candidates and ballot measures even in difficult states.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also get medieval on the traditional media for its appalling display of ableism in the wake of John Fetterman's recent NBC interview; recap the absolutely wild goings-on in Los Angeles, where City Council President Nury Martinez just resigned after a racist tirade was caught on tape; dive into the unexpectedly close race for governor in Oklahoma; and highlight a brand-new database from Daily Kos Elections showing how media markets and congressional districts overlap.

Episode transcript is available here.

Will scandals sink the GOP's Senate hopes? with Nathaniel Rakich Oct 06, 2022

Show notes

After an erruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.

Co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss Dr. Oz, puppy killer; the GOP’s hypocrisy regarding Herschel Walker’s ever-growing list of scandals; Texas Attorney General’s Ken Paxton desperate attempts to avoid testifying in an abortion case; and Brazil’s presidential runoff, where former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva remains the favorite despite far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected first-round showing.

Episode transcript.

Yes, the polls still matter, with G. Elliott Morris Sep 29, 2022

Show notes

Yes, the polls still matter! This week on The Downballot, The Economist's G. Elliott Morris joins us to discuss his new book on polling, Strength in Numbers, including the early history of polling in the form of 19th century straw polls; how we can be smart consumers of polls by placing their uncertainty in context; and the surprises that have stood out in his new model forecasting the 2022 midterms.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on Pennsylvania, where Republican Doug Mastriano has called for "40 days of fasting and prayer" to save his ailing campaign for governor; dig into ad spending numbers that show Democrats airing far more spots because they aren't relying on super PACs; circle back to the J.R. Majewski stolen valor scandal, which prompted the NRCC to cut him loose; and recap the dispiriting results of Italy's general election, which saw the far-right win for the first time since Mussolini.

Transcript available here.

The surge in women registering to vote, with Tom Bonier Sep 22, 2022

Show notes

Since Dobbs, women have registered to vote in unprecedented numbers across the country, and the first person to dig into these stunning trends was TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, who's our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bonier explains how his firm gathers data on the electorate; why this surge is likely a leading indicator showing stepped-up enthusiasm among many groups of voters, including women, young people, and people of color; how we know these new registrants disproportionately lean toward Democrats; and what it all might mean for November.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the GOP's shrinking path back to a Senate majority as Republicans abandon Arizona; an appalling "stolen valor" scandal in a key Ohio House race (expect Democratic ads on it soon); a new study indicating that Latino voters overall have not continued to move to the right since 2020; and an awesome new congressional map created by Daily Kos Elections' Daniel Donner that rectifies the common problem of traditional maps that over-emphasize rural red areas and render blue urban districts almost invisible.

Transcript available here.

Michigan's first blind Supreme Court justice, with Richard Bernstein Sep 15, 2022

Show notes

Michigan Democrats are defending a narrow 4-3 majority on their state Supreme Court this fall, and one incumbent on the ballot is the fascinating Richard Bernstein, our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bernstein, who made history in 2014 when he became the first blind justice in the court's history, describes his work as a disability rights advocate prior to joining the bench; how voters identified their struggles with his own during his first campaign; and why he wrote such a feisty response last week when a conservative colleague wanted to block an abortion rights measure from going before voters in November.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recount the final primaries of the year, which saw MAGA candidates sweep three congressional races in New Hampshire, much to the consternation of whatever passes for the GOP establishment these days. They also try to understand why on earth Lindsey Graham introduced a 15-week national abortion ban this week, which has some Republicans twisting in knots and others—including several in competitive races—inexplicably joining in.

To support Justice Bernstein, please visit JusticeWithJulia.com, where you'll find the slate of state supreme court candidates that Daily Kos has endorsed with actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

Episode transcript available here.

How competitive is your House district, with Stephen Wolf Sep 08, 2022

Show notes

Daily Kos Elections just released a massive new data set that breaks down the results of the 2020 presidential election for every last one of the nation's new congressional districts, so we're dissecting what it all means with longtime DKE writer Stephen Wolf. Wolf explains why these numbers closely predict the outcome of most House elections, how they show the way in which the overall playing field has grown even more tilted toward Republicans, what the most evenly divided district in the country is, and much more.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from the huge Democratic upset in the special election for Alaska's lone House seat, which has Republicans pointing fingers at one another (but mostly at Sarah Palin); gawk at the Senate GOP's huge problems with money and candidate quality that's led to open feuding at the highest levels of the party; recap the Massachusetts primaries; and preview the final primaries of the year in New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

Episode transcript available here.

Rerun: How we can win state supreme courts, with Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Sep 01, 2022

Show notes

This episode originally aired August 17, 2022

This week, a special guest joins us on The Downballot to shine a spotlight on elections for state supreme courts: actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Like Daily Kos, Julia has long supported candidates running at all levels of the ballot, and this year, after the U.S. Supreme Court's demolition of Roe, races for state supreme courts across the country deserve more attention than ever.

In a twist, Julia turns the tables on us and takes over the hosting duties from the Davids to quiz Nir and Beard about these contests. Topics include how bizarre it is that we elect judges in the first place (almost no other country does!), what kinds of issues these courts are likely to decide in the coming years (abortion and gerrymandering, for starters), and most importantly, how ordinary folks can make a difference.

Together, Daily Kos and Julia are proud to announce their endorsement of seven Democratic candidates running for closely divided courts in Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio. You can support this slate by going to JusticewithJulia.com and donating today. These races all have small budgets, so for small-dollar grassroots donors, your contributions will get a huge bang for the buck. Thank you for listening and giving!

Episode transcript is available here.

Which state legislatures to watch in 2022, with Aaron Kleinman Aug 25, 2022

Show notes

The end of Roe has returned the issue of abortion to the states, and that means few elections are more important than those for state legislature. On this week's episode of The Downballot, we're joined by Aaron Kleinman, director of research for the States Project, which works to flip targeted legislatures nationwide. Aaron reaches back to the notorious "Powell Memo" to explain why legislative power is so crucial; discusses how Pennsylvania's unusually high incumbent re-election rate poses an obstacle for Democrats; lays out the stakes for Democrats trying to keep Republicans from gaining supermajorities in North Carolina; and much more.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap this week's elections, starting with the massive upset in New York's 19th—a race Republicans expected to win handily. There were also two colossal Democratic primaries for neighboring House seats in New York City that finally got resolved, plus a near-win by the very worst MAGA candidate of them all in a district near Orlando. And we update the ongoing vote tally in Alaska, where a Democrat is in surprising contention for the state's lone House seat

Episode transcript available here.

How we can win state supreme courts, with Julia Louis-Dreyfus! Aug 17, 2022

Show notes

Episode transcript is available here.

Effective political ads and speaking to Black voters, with Terrance Green Aug 11, 2022

Show notes

Black voters are the most stalwart constituency in the Democratic Party, but candidates cannot take them for granted. Media consultant Terrance Green joins us on this week's edition of The Downballot to discuss his career in politics communicating with voters, including leading the largest-ever paid media operation to turn out the Black vote on behalf of the Biden-Harris campaign. Immediately after that historic victory, he found himself targeting white voters on behalf of a Black Senate hopeful, Raphael Warnock, in Georgia's epic runoffs. Terrance also tells us how he's helped African American candidates turn back racist attacks and what he thinks the impact of having so many high-profile Black Senate contenders this year will be.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap this week's races, including a special election in a conservative Minnesota House district that saw the Republican badly underperform Donald Trump; a surprisingly close call for one of the most vocal progressives on Capitol Hill, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar; and the Democratic primary for Vermont's open House seat, which means that, at long last, the state will almost certainly end its status as the only one never to send a woman to Congress come next year.

Episode transcript to come.

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