The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

Latest Episodes:

How to Watch Soccer Like a Nerd Jun 16, 2026

Show notes

Mike has written a World Cup 2026 update to his classic Grantland piece about how to watch soccer. We discuss expected goals and how to use statistics well and poorly, we talk tactics and "flex back threes" and "five guys" and "rest defense" and how it all goes back to Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich, and a little bit on the economics of the game and why that explains the coaches at the 2026 World Cup.

Read Goodman in 2026: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/fifa-2026-world-cup-expected-goals-analytics-soccer-nerd/

And see Goodman from 2014: https://grantland.com/features/how-to-watch-the-world-cup-like-a-true-soccer-nerd/

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USMNT 4, Paraguay 1 Jun 13, 2026

Show notes

A big win for the United States Men's National Team (USMNT, pronounced us-mnt) that validated belief in Mauricio Pochettino and the system he built for these players. We get into why the xG isn't quite as impressive as one might expect, the distinctive tactics you could see in action during the game, and just how far out over skis one might reasonably get after this match.

For more on the Double Pivot's PADDLIN' World Cup model, see our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/@DoublePivotPod

And the Expecting Goals model write-up (with live updating on the way): https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-projections-introducing

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Champions League Final, World Cup Model, Podcast Announcements Jun 02, 2026

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There is so much to get to this week, and this will be the first of many podcasts. We cover the Champions League final and why we did not have much of a problem with Arsenal's defensive approach, our plans for building a World Cup model and some of the models out there, and the big plans for where these podcasts are going to be published.

You can check out all the new... video content at: https://www.youtube.com/@DoublePivotPod

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Arsenal Can Point To a Scoreboard Now May 26, 2026

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Arsenal won the Premier League. They were also the best team in the Premier League by any analytical measure. But they were an unusual best team in the league, tactically and statistically, and we get into the peculiarities of the style that helped get the Gunners over the line. And we talk about what to expect from Arsenal and PSG in the Champions League final.

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Xabi Alonso to Chelsea May 19, 2026

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Chelsea will reportedly hire Xabi Alonso as their new manager for next season. We discuss how Chelsea got to this point, what they appear to have promised to Xabi and how this may or may not fit within Chelsea's current sports and business model. We also discuss Xabi's impressive managerial record and how his tactical approach might fit Chelsea's talent.

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Meat Wall Apotheosis May 13, 2026

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Has the moment finally come? With West Ham's disallowed goal in the closing seconds against Arsenal, the football discourse has returned to the question of the new corner kick tactic, which this podcast has somehow managed to name "the meat wall". We discuss what happened in the Arsenal match, but our goal is not to referee the moment over. Our focus is on why this seems likely to drive some degree of change in refereeing standards or even the rules of the game, why we think that an assertive response is necessary, and we walk through several possibilities for how the sport and the leagues might respond.

Read Caley's new newsletter here: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-meat-wall-era-in-the-premier

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Double Pivot Mousa Mania 2026 (Teaser) May 08, 2026

Show notes

There is too much to podcast on and we are giving our subscribers a few bonus podcasts. Talking top four in Germany and Italy, recapping the Bayern - PSG second leg, and of course, all the Real Madrid drama.

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Did Manchester United Improve Under Michael Carrick, Really? May 05, 2026

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Manchester United have had an undoubtedly successful season, qualifying for the Champions League with underlying numbers perfectly in line with that position. But their results shifted markedly when they sacked Ruben Amorim and brought in Michael Carrick. Was this a major driver of their results or a mirage of finishing?

We discuss the real tactical changes under Carrick and how they show up in the numbers, why Kobbie Mainoo is the key player in this tactical shift, some notable differences in how the team approaches game state, and nonetheless how there is clearly just a ton of variance going on here.

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PSG and Bayern Play a Good Football Match Apr 29, 2026

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That was great. We discuss what made the game so exciting, why it was not a game with enormous expected goals totals, and what that tells us about the tactical approach and quality of play. Plus a Vincent Kompany apology form.

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Manchester City vs Arsenal Match Recap Apr 20, 2026

Show notes

Somehow, here in 2026, a major title race clash in the Premier League lived up to the billing. We discuss how Arsenal's aggressive defensive approach created an open and exciting match for a long stretch, how City's period of possession dominance in the second half nonetheless also produced some of Arsenal's best scoring chances, and why the final ten minutes were so uninspiring compared to the rest of the match, and what it all tells us about who is likely to win the title.

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