The Dividend Cafe

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The DC Today - Wednesday September 21, 2022 Sep 21, 2022

Show notes

I’d love to say “Fed comments caused the market to drop today” but it would be untrue. Within seconds of the Fed release the market went from +200 to -200, but then the market went back to +250, and that was all AFTER the Fed announcement, the release, and the Powell press conference. THEN, after all that, the market unraveled into the final thirty minutes of trading.

Dow: -522 points (-1.70%) S&P: (-1.71%) Nasdaq: (-1.79%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.37%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.04/barrel (+0.12%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Existing home sales dropped -0.4% in August and are down -19.9% from a year ago

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday September 20, 2022 Sep 20, 2022

Show notes

A volatile day to the downside in markets today as traders await comments from the Fed tomorrow and as bond yields bring down risk asset valuation.

Dow: -313 points (-1.01%) S&P: -1.13% Nasdaq: -0.95% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.56% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (-0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.57%) WTI Crude Oil: $84.16/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Housing starts came in at 1.575 million annualized for the month of August, a whopping 125k above expectations. Nearly all of the excess vs. expectations were in multi-family, with single-family coming in the second lowest since mid-2020.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

An Updated Outlook on Energy Sep 16, 2022

Show notes

It is not accidental that I write so much about the Energy sector. First and most applicable, we are big energy investors at The Bahnsen Group, carrying an allocation in our Core Dividend portfolio that is triple the weight that the S&P 500 has. What is happening in energy markets has profound relevance for the economy at large, for all people in their everyday lives, and across all national borders. Few things are more globally relevant than access to energy.

But if I am being totally honest, even apart from the large financial exposure we have to the energy space, I love this subject because energy fascinates me. It should fascinate anyone who spends just sixty seconds thinking about the fact that natural resources around for thousands of years with almost no known utility have created a more significant increase in the quality of life for more people than anything under the sun. “Transformed energy” sits at the heart of all economic activity, as my friend Louis Gave is fond of saying.

You cannot destroy energy, which is both a law of the universe most of us learned in elementary school and, these days, apparently a vital message for investors. In the physical universe, it merely means energy is constantly changing – usually for the purpose of doing work – but in the investing world, I believe it means something different but perhaps not entirely disconnected.

So let’s do a little autumn analysis of the energy sector, where we are, where we may be going, and see what may edify us in the discussion. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday September 15, 2022 Sep 15, 2022

Show notes

Special thanks to all who have reached out to say how much they like and appreciate the new format. Between the addition of a podcast, a video, a transcription of the podcast, and the continuation of a daily written synopsis, along with the legacy version on Monday and the real meat of Dividend Cafe on Friday, I think the vast majority of readers have been extremely positive in their feedback. Ironically, the one or two nasty emails we got (you should see the stuff my communications team receives sometimes) were not even from clients, soooooo …. I do recognize that sometimes people like routine and familiarity (I am one of them), but change is part of life, and these changes were done to add mediums that are most popular and sought after, and to harmonize the workload with the reality of someone who has worked 16-18 hours per day for 25 years. Beyond that, I’m pretty much done talking about it …

Okay – off we go!

MARKET ACTION

Dow: -173 points (-0.56%) S&P: (-1.13%) Nasdaq: (-1.43%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (+3.7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.55%) Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.30/barrel (-3.62%) Key Economic Point of the Day:

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday September 14, 2022 Sep 14, 2022

Show notes

The day after the market sell-off you had a small move higher in each equity index but I unpack it all and then some here …

MARKET ACTION

Dow: +30 points (+0.10%) S&P: +0.34% Nasdaq: +0.74% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.41% (- 1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-1.39%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (+1.57%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Even as the Consumer Price Index came in a bit higher than expected yesterday, the Producer Price Index dropped -0.1% in August (consensus was for no change)

ASK DAVID “When you refer to the futures market predicting a 88% chance of a 75bp rate hike or whatever the percentage and outcome may be, how is that determined?”

~ Don D.

The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) makes a market in fed funds rate futures. Real people using real money to buy real futures contracts on what the real rate may be at real future intervals. This futures market is the gold standard of measuring market expectations around the fed funds rate. ON DECK I will be on set co-hosting for an hour tomorrow with Stuart Varney (9am-10am ET) on Fox Business.

CHECK OUT I was on set with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business early this morning talking energy, inflation, markets, growth, and more. A worthwhile interview!

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday September 13, 2022 Sep 14, 2022

Show notes

The Consumer Price Index (Headline CPI) came in +8.3% over where it was a year ago. Core CPI (which excludes food and energy) came in at +6.3% versus a year ago. Food prices and the lagging effect of shelter cost put upward pressure on prices while energy prices and used cars put downward pressure on prices.

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - September 12, 2022 Sep 12, 2022

Show notes

It’s pretty anti-climactic that I announce the new DC Today plans on Thursday and then we get to Monday and … it’s the same DC Today you are used to … But that is the idea – no difference in the written program for DC Today on Monday, but with the addition of this daily podcast (and video) …

TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Their Weakness is Not our Strength Sep 09, 2022

Show notes

I first want to thank everyone for the extremely positive feedback last week on the somewhat unique Dividend Cafe juxtaposing USC football and markets. It was fun to write and, at least for some of you, appears to have been fun to read.

But for those who prefer the serious stuff, we are back to normal this week, and I think it is time I cover a topic that comes up a lot anecdotally, but I don’t think has ever received headline treatment in the Dividend Cafe. And yet, it is one of the single most important topics in the field of economics and finance …

I refer to currencies, the U.S. dollar in particular, but really the overall global dynamics of currency and what it all means to investors. Currency ramifications impact all investors all the time, yet we rarely contemplate why or how. Today I want to play around a bit with some aspects of this critical topic in the present reality.

Jump on into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Markets Fight On! Sep 02, 2022

Show notes

Why in the world would I waste the precious soundwaves of Dividend Cafe to recap day-by-day market action when this hallowed ground is supposed to be reserved for what actually matters in markets (and life)? Because we are entering football season, of course, and how this all connects is about to be readily apparent to you.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Is It Time to Sell? Aug 26, 2022

Show notes

Long-time readers of Dividend Cafe know that the real intent of this weekly commentary is to delve into the macroeconomic – the big picture – the high-level stuff that impacts investor decisions and behavior. Today in honor of the obsession over Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (being delivered shortly after I hit “submit” on this commentary), I want to talk not an iota about the Fed, monetary policy, or really any aspect of macroeconomics.

Rather, I want to actually dive into a question that is hyper-practical – more micro than macro – and that is when to sell a stock. I was in the process of answering a question about this topic for the Ask David section of The DC Today when I realized it really warranted the full Dividend Cafe treatment.

So here we are – a Fed-free Dividend Cafe dedicated to the ever-practical issue of sell discipline. We’ll discuss Jackson Hole in Monday’s DC Today (only because I have to), but for today let’s talk about how dividend growth equity investors like ourselves think about the right time to sell a stock. Let’s jump into the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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