The Dividend Cafe

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The DC Today - Wednesday, April 10, 2024 Apr 10, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PWoA4P

A down day in both stocks and bonds today following a disappointment on CPI numbers by one tenth on both Headline and Core, that sent the Dow down XXX points and the 10-year bond yield up .18XXbps. We expected .3% on both and got .4% instead to cause todays action, so on one hand a risk off day as higher rates were priced in on yields, and on the other, the difference of a tenth is far from dramatic in and of itself.

I do believe the Federal Reserve is an independent institution adhering to its employment and price stability mandates. I also believe they are aware of the Fiscal paradigm as well however (not driven by, but aware). Do I think a $2T budget deficit when we are at full employment with interest expense now accounting for 17% of tax revenue when our average termed government debt interest rate is only at 3.3% is on their radar in terms of Quantitative Tightening, yes I do. They can’t go until inflation gives them the OK sign (or gets close enough), but they are ready to reduce rates later this year as they’ve telegraphed, and from the Fed minutes released just today my point on reducing QT will come in to play sooner than later.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 9, 2024 Apr 09, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aKgDaL

We traded mostly lower the entire day today but then rallied back to fair value the last hour or so of trading. Tomorrow we have CPI out, and with a lack of other meaningful economic data today and right before earnings season heats up later this week, markets were mixed in anticipation. Bonds did rally across the curve giving back some of the back up in rates we have seen the past few sessions with the 10-year down 6bps.

With earnings season set to start this Friday, a quick recap of where expectations lie: 3% revenue growth, 5% earnings growth on the quarter with a big up tick in Utility (believe it or not) earnings growth up 18%. For the year we are still looking at roughly $243 per share on the SP500 or about 10% growth from the previous year. Sectors where the bar on expectations is set fairly high at this point are in technology and communications, with Energy and Materials the opposite so it will be interesting to see where markets price the actual results in comparison.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 8, 2024 Apr 08, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aMHEug

Economic Front

The primary news of the weekend was the 303k new jobs created in March, up by 89k over expectations. A full 232k of that came from the private sector. The two prior months were revised upwards by 22k. The household survey was up huge, as well. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%.

Construction was solid (39k new j obs), and leisure and hospitality led the way, with private education and health care strong as well. The annual gain in wages is +4.1%, and the average hours worked went up to 34.4 (had been 34.3).

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Mystical Psychic Garden and You Apr 05, 2024

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Today's Post -

The stock market dropped this week and it has given me a chance to write a Dividend Cafe about one of my favorite topics – the crucial importance of predicting the future, reading the tea leaves, and all that good stuff. I have strong opinions about people’s talent in such projections and the relevance of such to one’s long-term financial success. So today we are going to just have at it and talk about this week’s market volatility and what it means to you.

Some of you are going to be really, really disappointed (if I did my job right).

Jump on in, to the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Thursday, April 4, 2024 Apr 04, 2024

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Today's Post -

Our morning rally in stocks turned decisively negative midday. There was geo-political tension with Iran threatening action after Israel’s strike on Syria and then some mixed messaging from different Fed presidents today that seemed to both contribute to today’s decline. That said, there really wasn’t a whole lot to warrant such a large 750-point swing from top to bottom on the day, so some strange market action with volatility picking up.

While the overall labor force participation rate has come up recently, it’s still on the lower end of the historical norm at about 62.5%. It’s interesting to see the bifurcation of what’s driving it. The participation rate amongst the largest cohort of working 25-54 year olds is actually the highest it has ever been in this country at 83.5%, while the 54+ is basically at the lowest level it has ever been at about 38.5%. Read into that what you will, but the charts seem to shift just following the pandemic with a greater gap between the two cohorts. Younger folks with fewer assets had less wealth effects from rising prices, while the opposite was more prevalent in the older is my take.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, April 3, 2024 Apr 03, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U2mBhF

A modestly positive trading day today in markets with both stocks a little higher and the VIX lower following a few down days. ADP payroll numbers for March came in quite strong at 184k, although the actual employment report this Friday will get more attention. Powell had comments out today that reiterated their patient approach on lowering rates which is really just more of the same with Fed futures unchanged. Sort of a quiet day really all around.

As the office REIT space recovers, earnings revisions for next year have brought the average estimate from -1.8% to now 12.2% for 2025. Healthcare REIT’s have also seen a huge revision from -17.2% to now 6.9% for next year EPS estimates. In fact of all 10 industries in the SP500 with upward revisions for next year, 6 of them are in the REIT space overall. Now, I imagine if interest rates don’t move lower as much as expected the shine may wear off for these analysts, but interesting nonetheless.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Tuesday, April 2, 2024 Apr 02, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JnoIqp

Although off the lows for the day, stocks closed down for a second day to start off the new quarter. 10-Year yields have now moved back towards the high end of their four-month range at 4.35%, which is about the level where we have seen markets start to pay more attention which is what today was about. Fed futures are still at 50/50 for a June cut and roughly 70% for July, and what’s being repriced into markets is rates that may stay a little higher this year.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Monday, April 1, 2024 Apr 01, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cDHCqg

There is a lot of good stuff in the podcast today and, as always, we welcome your questions and curiosities.

Dividend Cafe looked at a number of things around the Fed, market valuation, inflation, and more on Friday.

We have some very exciting things in the works about our plans for daily and weekly content delivery, with even more additions and refinements coming. Meetings are underway and nothing will be ready to announce imminently but we are excited to bring what we are doing to another level.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Q1, The Fed, The Roaring 20's, and the Future Mar 29, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cDi2Sq

The first quarter of 2024 is in the history books (both because it is done, so therefore now history – and because it was a big quarter with a lot of surprises for market pundits). As you go into your Easter Weekend and enjoy the market holiday that is Good Friday, take a trip around the horn as we look at history, market valuations, passive investing, credit, money supply, financial conditions, and more.

Jump on in to the Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The DC Today - Wednesday, March 27, 2024 Mar 27, 2024

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TT4Scl

Another generally positive day in markets with today marking the 99th consecutive trading day that the SP500 closed above its 50 day moving average. This has happened many times in history believe it or not, and certainly isn’t even half way to 1995’s run of 257 (back when I was graduating high school), but its impressive none the less.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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