The Dividend Cafe

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The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 22, 2024 May 22, 2024

Show notes

This episode of Dividend Cafe offers a commentary on the recent market downturn, noting a 201 point drop in the Dow and a slight rise in volatility. The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes are discussed, revealing some disappointment in inflation data but maintaining a medium-term 2 percent inflation target. The episode also covers lower than expected April existing home sales, likely due to tight housing inventory and higher rates, yet notes a 5.7 percent year-over-year price increase. UK inflation rose slightly more than expected to 2.3%, attributed to weaker economic fundamentals compared to the US. China's potential increase in tariffs on large autos from the US and Europe is mentioned, seen as a tit-for-tat move against the Biden administration's tariff raises. Additionally, the episode previews economic indicators to be released the following day, including jobless claims and PMI numbers. The Bonson Group's role as investment professionals and the disclaimer regarding investment risks and advice conclude the commentary.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:18 Market Movements and Federal Reserve Insights 01:16 Housing Market Dynamics 02:10 Global Economic Indicators: UK Inflation and China's Tariff Strategy 02:48 Looking Ahead: Economic Calendar and Closing Thoughts 03:10 Disclaimer and Professional Advice Notice

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 21, 2024 May 21, 2024

Show notes

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a weekly market commentary with a focus on dividends and economic insights. On May 21, the markets saw a slight increase despite the lack of major economic news, with the Dow up by 66 points and both NASDAQ and S&P 500 up by about a quarter of a point. Interest rates were slightly down, with the 10-year treasury dropping three basis points. Fed officials, including Waller, shared diverse views on the economy, generally indicating a cautious approach towards changing interest rates. The episode also discusses the current low market volatility, compares GDP in aggregate versus per capita with Japan as a case study, and looks ahead to the FOMC meeting minutes and existing home sales reports. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of not becoming complacent due to current positive market conditions.

00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview: A Quiet Summer Day 00:45 Federal Reserve Speakers and Interest Rate Insights 01:22 Market Volatility and Economic Indicators 02:39 GDP Insights and Global Economic Trends 03:21 Looking Ahead: FOMC Meeting and Home Sales 03:34 Closing Remarks and Compliance Information

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - May 20, 2024 May 20, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ypYWzx

We recap market activity on Monday, May 20th. The Dow started positively but lost momentum, closing down 196 points. The S&P and NASDAQ saw modest gains. China's market performance may be indicating an upward trend. Additionally, there was news about a helicopter crash in Iran, potential Middle Eastern tensions, and upcoming OPEC meetings. There are possible changes in capital reserve requirements for U.S. banks, the employee retention tax credit, increased tariffs on China, and the impact of these policies. We look at homeowners and renters in the U.S. Lastly, insights into recent Fed speeches and their stance on inflation and rate adjustments

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Fear is Often a Greedy Thing May 17, 2024

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QOLsna

The second quarter of 2024 hit its midpoint this week, and markets have continued with what has been a big rally in the month of May. As earnings season has now concluded and the Fed is sidelined for a bit, we might expect things to chill out for a bit, but markets never sleep, so who knows. But this week’s Dividend Cafe does give you a pretty good look at the yield curve and what it predicts (or doesn’t), along with a cogent expectation for inflation, some fascinating things Japan can teach us (or not), some campaign questions for Team Biden, and then ultimately – a real behavioral lesson that may just make or break your success as an investor.

So yes, the opportunity inside this week’s Dividend Cafe is serious. Let’s jump in!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 16, 2024 May 16, 2024

Show notes

Market Update and Economic Indicators: A Snapshot

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, May 16th, the host provides a summary of the day's market activity, noting a flat day in the markets with a brief touch on 40,000 points on the Dow. Despite a mild decline by the close, bond yields rose slightly, and recent economic indicators including the CPI data, Philly fed and empire state manufacturing indexes, and industrial production, suggest a steady, if not expanding, economy. Brian also points out the positive jobless claims data and the rebound in new home constructions as signs of economic health. Additionally, an increase in real personal income and a 35% rise in the S&P 500 since the pre-pandemic period are highlighted as indicators that do not point towards an immediate recession. The episode concludes with a look forward to the next Dividend Cafe installment and wishes for a good weekend.

00:02 Market Overview: A Flat Yet Positive Day 00:38 Manufacturing and Economic Indicators: Holding Steady 01:05 Employment and Income: Signs of Economic Health 02:25 Housing Market and Inflation: A Positive Outlook 03:05 Closing Thoughts and Look Ahead

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - May 15, 2024 May 15, 2024

Show notes

Market Update: A Positive Turn with Cooler Inflation Numbers

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a financial market update for Wednesday, May 15th, marking a positive trading day with the Dow up by 349 points and a rally in bonds. The episode highlights a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 0.3%, indicating a positive trend in inflation rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed signals with March's deflationary revision and a hotter April.

These figures suggest a potential 2.8% year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is crucial for Federal Reserve considerations.

Despite lower than expected retail sales and a contractionary Empire Manufacturing Survey, the episode suggests these are potentially positive signs for the Fed to lower interest rates.

00:19 Inflation and Economic Indicators Update 01:17 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Insights 01:54 Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow's Preview

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - May 14, 2024 May 14, 2024

Show notes

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime! questions@thebahnsengroup.com.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Monday - May 13, 2024 May 13, 2024

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UXaYJe

Markets opened to the upside and then spent the first half of the day declining (but not by much) and the second half of the day around that declined spot.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In Theory but not in Practice May 10, 2024

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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4afqiVW

As I finish up this writing Friday morning the Dow is tracking for its eight consecutive day in positive territory (I have little doubt that my mere typing of that sentence likely jinxed it). The market reversal from April into May can be credited to a combination of:

Renewed acknowledgment that regardless of when the Fed begins cutting rates they have made it reasonably clear they are done hiking rates, and

Marginally improved financial markets liquidity in the present tense and with a vision to the future around the tapering of quantitative tightening, and

A good fundamental backdrop for corporate profits with another earnings season in the books reflective of enduring margins, reasonable forward guidance, and revenue growth in line with expectations

It is a bad time to be a market timer. But I don’t think anyone can even time when it is a good time to be a market timer, so maybe I am just repeating myself over and over. Anyways, we know what time it is at The Bahnsen Group …

… and it is time to jump into the Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Dividend Cafe Thursday - May 9, 2024 May 09, 2024

Show notes

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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