The Dividend Cafe

Latest Episodes:

When An EasyTrade War Blows Up in your Face Aug 09, 2019

Show notes

Topics discussed: The last peace treaty in this trade war was supposed to be simple enough: The Chinese agreed to buy more agriculture from the United States and the U.S. agreed to lay off Huawei. Not even that was able to last. The intense stock market volatility of the last week is not the most problematic aspect of the trade war from an economic standpoint. We will focus our analysis on:

(1) The macroeconomic impact on U.S. growth, and

(2) The currency implications for global markets

The outlook for U.S. economic growth is falling apart under the pressures of this trade war. Focusing on the far right of this chart, you see the Business Investment aspect of GDP growth (blue line) accelerating significantly after President Trump was elected, in line with the CEO survey on planned capital expenditures (red line). And then you see both collapsing together in response to trade tensions.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trade Wars Not So Easy to Win for Investors Aug 05, 2019

Show notes

Topics discussed: The market suffered its worst week of the year last week and the downside accelerated today in response to China’s currency depreciation and the general market realization that this trade war ending is nowhere in sight. We sat down as an Investment Committee this morning and recorded our best thoughts and ideas around all of this to inform and edify your understanding as it pertains to your portfolio and overall economic expectations. We particularly hope you will at least listen to the ending conclusions we offer. Please listen to this special Dividend Café podcast!

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trump and Trade Again...and Again Aug 02, 2019

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Topics discussed:

This week's trip to the Dividend Cafe will look at the overall health of the U.S. economy, at the state of credit markets, at all the context around the Fed's present thinking, and some very important reminders about dividend growth during this crucial time.
Investors should be prepared for two things when central bankers add stimulus to asset prices that are already operating as if they do not need any stimulus: (1) What is high is very possibly going to go higher; and (2) Bad investments will get made, and bad investments do not end well, ever. No central banker or politician can change that.
The Federal Reserve did something they have not done in nearly eleven years this week - they cut interest rates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A Hearing on Spending and Recessions Jul 26, 2019

Show notes

Markets appear to be up a tad on the week, with little volatility to show for it (as of press time, anyway). Earnings season is off to a really strong start, but I want to wait one more week to begin "report carding" earnings season (partially to not jinx it, and partially because it is a tad premature). I took advantage of this week's slow news week (sorry, Mueller) to talk about the broad economy and my perspective on where we are in the macroeconomic cycle, and what it means for all of us at this stage in the game.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

When Doves Cry Jul 19, 2019

Show notes

As we enter the middle part of the summer, we also enter the beginning of Q2 earnings season, and this all adds up to fun times. The equity markets puttered around a bit this week and between the "wait and see" on a China trade deal and the "wait and see" on Fed accommodation, earnings ought to be the major story for the next couple of weeks.

In the meantime, I really tried to use this week's Dividend Cafe to unpack some foundational things about the U.S. economy. What does the yield curve tell us about a recession? Why has the Fed become so accommodative to capital markets (there is an answer!)? What would make someone want our Fed to not be independent? What do pension funds tell us about the future of asset allocation? What can government spending tell us about the state of economic growth?

If all of these questions are addressed this week, and they are, plus a few MLP and Brexit comments to boot, can you see why I am so excited to have you join me in the Dividend Cafe?

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Markets are Happy and Well "Fed" Jul 12, 2019

Show notes

Topics discussed:

Will the Fed Cut?
Is a recession coming?
A look at results of the tax reform bill

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Freedom Tree Planted in the Soil of Ideas Jul 02, 2019

Show notes

Topics discussed:

A Pregnant Pause in the Trade Tirade
Dividend Cafe; How it All Began
Emerging Markets equals Earnings Growth

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

“Oh no! We’re at an all-time high!” Jun 28, 2019

Show notes

Topics discussed:

Markets in the first six months of 2019
Fear of Market Highs
Where we are in the trade war with China
Dividend Cafe Podcast will be merged with Advice & Insights Podcast going forward.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com