The Dividend Cafe

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A Solution Means Knowing What You Are Solving May 16, 2020

Show notes

What I want to do, starting in this week’s Dividend Cafe, but really in the weeks and months to come, is to examine the truly significant macroeconomic forces that are relevant to investors, and to explore investment solutions that match the moment. I do not believe advisors and investors can consider solutions intelligently if they have not considered what they are trying to solve intelligently. So to that end, we work. Join us, in this week’s Dividend Cafe.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Thursday, May 14 May 14, 2020

Show notes

The market closed up almost 400 points today after an intra-day session that was surely one of the weirdest I have seen in a couple weeks. Futures were down 100-200 all morning pre-market, and went down further after the initial jobless claims number came in at 2.98 million (the number had been expected to be closer to 2.7 million). The market went down as much as 450 points before rallying back and really zigging and zagging (with no apparent news) throughout the day, closing at the highs into a rally.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday, May 13 May 13, 2020

Show notes

Futures were down last night, then up this morning, then went flat just as the market opened this morning. By the time the market open was catching steam downward pressure was on stocks, and that downward pressure accelerated a few hours after the open, and then stayed down but level the rest of the day. Stocks actually closed 180 points off their low of the day, but still down 500 points on the day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday, May 12 May 12, 2020

Show notes

In the height of market violence throughout March and April it was routine that the overnight futures would do one thing, the opening the next morning something totally different, and the action throughout the day something different still. Sometimes even then there was no clarity as to how things would end up as 400+ point moves down or up even in the final hour of trading were extremely common (either as reversals or pile-ons). Lately the futures I have seen before bed time, the futures I wake up to around 3:00am, and the market opening levels have all been pretty in line with one another. There have been late day trading reversals (as I highlighted most days last week), but the futures and the opening levels have been pretty consistent.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Monday, May 11 May 11, 2020

Show notes

The S&P was flat today, the Nasdaq was up, and the Dow was down 100 points, so let’s call it a flat day overall. We will cover our normal categories and take a few detours as well as we launch another market week in the midst of this COVID pandemic …

As for health data, the 1.5% case growth over the weekend is what we have been waiting for – the smallest case growth in the U.S. since all of this began. And all analysis indicates we will see new cases and case growth % really decline from here. If the new cases had declined with a substantially lower weekend testing number that would be less noteworthy, but the testing stayed quite elevated all weekend. The positive ratio to total tests was just 7.8% yesterday, and our trend level for total tests is right around 300,000 per day now.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Sowing the Seeds of Human Flourishing May 08, 2020

Show notes

This week’s Dividend Cafe will do all it generally sets out to do. We will look at the overall economy, and I even close with something I don’t often do: A summary of our short term, medium term, and long term outlooks. There is quite a deep dive into the jobs data, the economic picture, the state of the U.S. energy industry, some post-COVID economic realities, and much, much more. But there also is a sober assessment of something else – the human toll of non-productivity – the impact to joy and fulfillment when people are cut off from productive activity. It is the heart of our tragic moment.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Wednesday, May 6 May 06, 2020

Show notes

Happy “Flash Crash” anniversary, to those who remember that fateful day (ten years ago today). I remember it like it was yesterday, ending a meeting with clients early (who were sitting in my office facing me at the time, as I faced the television over their shoulders that was informing me of the collapsing market). I began trading in client accounts heavily after the prematurely-ended meeting, and for the first time in my life saw ETF’s broken, bid-ask spreads broken, and wild mistakes in trading execution. It was simply crazy, and only in the weeks (and to some degree, years) ahead did we really understand what had happened, how, and why. Today we don’t have a Flash Crash, and have not exactly had one since May 6, 2010. But we do have incredible risk around liquid ETF’s made up of illiquid assets. I need to attention this issue more diligently in the post-COVID months ahead.

I am trying to “tighten up” the daily missive, and better organize/structure it each day around: • Health Data • Market Technicals • Public Policy • Oil & Energy • Housing • Fed News

I am hoping this predictable, consistent sequence will both reflect the general priorities readers have in some way, and make for a more succinct and digestible read. And of course, I do welcome your feedback and suggestions …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Covid and Markets Podcast - Tuesday, May 5 May 06, 2020

Show notes

The market was up 300+ points most of the day today, and just as the sell-off faded yesterday, the rally faded today, with the market closing up 133 points (though the S&P was up 34 bps more than the Dow).

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Replay: National Conference Call on Covid 19 and Markets May 4, 2020 May 04, 2020

Show notes

Chief Investment Officer David L. Bahnsen answers questions from investors on markets and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

April Showers and May Flowers May 01, 2020

Show notes

I learned a lot in the month of April as well, and I want to share it with you today. I am either excited to tell you or sorry to tell you that this week's Dividend Cafe is the longest one I have ever written, but also the most important one I have ever written. The length of it is just simply because of the sheer ambition of all I am trying to cover this week. There are some investment opportunities that have been created out of these last two months that warrant the attention I have given them this week. But there also are lessons learned and principles reinforced that I am excited to share.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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