The Dividend Cafe

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**The Dividend Cafe**

The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press), and Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life (Post Hill Press).

Latest Episodes:

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - February 8, 2021 Feb 08, 2021

Show notes

Your hosts David L. Bahnsen and Scott Gamm tackle the important finance and economic news of the day.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Growth, Value, and Tom Brady Feb 05, 2021

Show notes

Last week, I wrote about investors’ reality (especially professional investors) being a by-product of the era in which they came to be. The intent was to set the table for how much of my investment worldview was formed. I live with a deep fear of excess valuations, and I live with a deep cynicism of the madness of crowds. Both of these things come from years and years of abundant research. But at the foundation of that research was the experience of living through something that provoked such impulses.

I won’t re-hash all of it this week. What I want to do this week is go beyond those two topics (i.e., valuations and crowd madness). We will look at these two things and seek to understand something about both concepts, but more importantly, we will seek to apply what it may mean to the present investing landscape and what it doesn’t mean.

This week’s Dividend Cafe wants to analyze a handful of present investing landscape realities, consider the lessons of history, assess where certain things are clearly different right now, and apply what it ought to prudently mean for real-life investors with real-life goals and real-life emotions, right now.

It is, indeed, our thesis that a rotation is in motion within investment markets. But I believe that means something very different than what many are saying it means. This week’s Dividend Cafe seeks to provide clarity around what is a truly important subject in 2021.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

You Are Where You Came From Jan 29, 2021

Show notes

It is appropriate and perhaps entirely ironic that the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe comes in a week where we have seen some of the most bizarre, insane, and silly market activity, ever, and that this bizarre, insane, and silly activity is accompanied by totally incoherent commentary from various pundits, politicians, and “pros.”

Whoever said investing was all math and science is an idiot.

But the drama of this week’s market, and even the circumstances around the big headline story of the week (which has actually morphed into a multi-faceted story), really do serve as a reinforcement of the major principles, beliefs, and applications I want to highlight in this week’s commentary. I began writing this Dividend Cafe last weekend, and had conceptualized my thesis well before the drama hit the tape into the week. And I haven’t altered that thesis or even the way I unpack it at all. To the extent some of this week’s Dividend Cafe connects dots with other news stories, great. But my purpose in this week’s commentary is not to make sense of a four-day story, but a four-decade story.

And I really hope it will help you in your journey and understanding as an investor.

I have long believed that all professional investors are irreversibly shaped by the era in which they grew up as an investor. This is more true of the lessons learned in that era that proved to be negative lessons than positive ones. Put differently, the major events that damage us in our formative years teach lessons that don’t go away easily.

I want to do a little history this week, talk a little investment biography, and ultimately, offer some lessons about my outlook on the present investing era that ought to transcend anything you will find in a chat room, on social media, or in the madness of the moment.

It’s a low bar.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Outlook w/ David L. Bahnsen - Zoom Replay - January 25, 2021 Jan 26, 2021

Show notes

Strong discussion on the market happenings shaping the lives of investors with David Bahnsen, Managing Director and CIO of The Bahnsen Group and Scott Gamm of Strategy Voice and Associates

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Great Debate - Part 2 Jan 22, 2021

Show notes

In this episode, the point I am making is more than just “politics is overrated in evaluating market conditions” (even though that is very true). I not only believe this subject of Inflation vs. Deflation is more important than anything else in understanding the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year state of financial markets, I also believe it is a welcome reprieve from what is just overdone, over-covered, over-saturated, and ready for a break.

Inflation vs. Deflation Part II – jump on in to the Dividend Cafe.

DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Great Debate Jan 15, 2021

Show notes

The Crux of the Matter

If you believed that interest rates were going to be 0-2% would you invest capital differently than if you believed they would be 5-7%?

If you believed that inflation would run 1-3%, would you invest differently than if you believed it would run 4-6%?

Does one’s view on interest rates and forward-inflation impact their expectations for P/E ratios (market valuations)?

If credit is going to tighten (ease of access to capital and cost of capital), would that alter one’s allocation to corporate credit, private equity, public equity, and a host of other risk asset classes?

Would one’s view on the U.S. dollar potentially influence their allocation to domestic vs. foreign assets?

And regardless of how one’s views on interest rates, inflation, credit, and currency impacts the decisions, they make on investment decisions, will all of these things impact the expected return on all asset classes (whether or not it alters your weightings in such asset classes)?

And if these things impact expected returns in various asset classes, does that have practical significance to one’s financial planning, accumulation goals, withdrawal goals, and other such tangible dimensions of wealth management?

The answer to every question above is YES, and pretty much all emphatically so, which means that every person reading this has a real dog in the hunt when it comes to the great economic debate of our time:

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Where to Begin? Jan 08, 2021

Show notes

Where to begin, indeed. It may have been exactly the kind of week investors wanted to start off 2021, but it certainly wasn’t the kind of week anyone wanted to start off 2021 from the vantage point of our country, her peace, her well-being, and her example to the world. The concept of a city on a hill is not working well, and this patriot feels total exasperation and desperation.

But I do know the readers of Dividend Cafe do not come to this publication for perspective on national conscience or psyche, especially not my clients. I believe there is a lot in this week’s Dividend Cafe that you will want to read, that matters to investors, that can better inform your beliefs and understandings in financial markets. So I am going to do what I normally do, and welcome any questions and comments any of you may have – as always.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Special Edition Dividend Cafe - Part 2 - Year Behind 2020/Year Ahead 2021 - National Call Jan 06, 2021

Show notes

In-depth discussion of the Year Ahead, predictions made last year, and the impact of the Senate race.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Special Edition Dividend Cafe - Part 1 - Year Behind 2020/Year Ahead 2021 Jan 05, 2021

Show notes

Our very special annual white paper is here, wherein we exhaustively recap 2020 and the year that just was (yes, even beyond the obvious stuff), and provide our key themes and perspectives for the year ahead. Reach out with any questions, and feel free to share/forward as you wish! Contact us at www.thebahnsengroup.com for your copy.

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Some Things Do Change Dec 18, 2020

Show notes

Last Friday, December 11, marked year number 25 since December 11, 1995, when my father passed away. His name was Greg Bahnsen, he was 47 years old (the age I will be next year), and he was my hero and my best friend. I have to imagine many of you have experienced things (including losses) that do not feel like they were as long ago as they actually were. I know those cliches are tired, but it just simply does not feel like it has been 25 years since my dad died. Yet it has been, and I imagine when another 25 years go by, I will be saying and feeling the same thing.

Time becomes a weirder thing as we get older, I suppose (some of you will have more expertise in this than I do), and I am sure that time dynamics get even muddier when we are talking about a loss. Last weekend as I was isolated away working on a project, I spent abundant amounts of time reflecting on this and many other things. Regardless of what it feels like, 25 years has gone by since dad died, and my entire life being upended and forever changed. Over these last 25 years, not just in my own personal life, but across society, the news, the world, the culture, and yes, the economy and markets, there are a whole lot of things that have barely changed or haven’t changed at all. But, there also are certain things that reflect substantial change. Not just “evolutionary” change, but real paradigmatic change.

And the biggest of those changes is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe …

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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