The Dividend Cafe

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Tuesday - June 23, 2026 Jun 23, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea’s KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a rare reversal of decades-long chip price declines due to supply-demand imbalance, valuations still matter. On the economic front, flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing surged to 55.7, the highest in a little over four years, and services also beat expectations, supporting an improving growth backdrop tied partly to data-center CapEx. He addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar losing reserve status, arguing no viable replacement exists, citing dollar dominance in FX (90%) and global reserves (57%) versus the euro (20%).

00:00 Summer Market Check-In

00:31 Global Tech Sell-Off

01:38 Semis Valuation Reality

02:01 AI Chip Demand Shift

02:48 PMI Data Highlights

03:43 Dollar Reserve Status Fears

04:32 What Could Replace Dollar

05:53 Reserve Currency Numbers

06:32 Wrap Up and Q&A

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - June 22, 2026 Jun 22, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vxzpNy

David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe from Grand Rapids during the Acton Institute Symposium, noting a relatively quiet day that allows more market focus. The Dow rose 148 points while the S&P fell 0.37% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.33% amid weakness in communication services and mega-cap names. He highlights strong year-to-date energy performance, surprising small-cap outperformance, and argues much of the market’s gain is concentrated in AI/AI-adjacent and energy. Bahnsen cites speculative behavior in the SpaceX IPO, including extreme trading volume, limited float, and a sharp decline from recent highs. Bonds sold off with the 10-year at 4.51% and the 2/10 spread flattening to 28 bps from ~80 bps. He shares an anecdote about Allbirds rebranding to “Smartbird” to pivot to AI, covers UK political instability, Iran-US talks, pending US housing legislation, mortgage rates, Fed hike probabilities, Alan Greenspan’s death at 100, and oil falling to $75.19 as Hormuz uncertainty persists.

00:00 Welcome and agenda

01:24 Market close snapshot

02:19 Sector leadership and breadth

03:06 Small caps surprise strength

03:49 SpaceX IPO mania

06:23 Rates and yield curve shift

07:13 AI bubble anecdote

08:57 UK politics and US policy

09:59 Fed odds and Greenspan

11:08 Oil and energy outlook

12:06 Wrap up and reminders

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Is This the Dreaded Top Jun 19, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fUPJml

David Bahnsen hosts Friday’s Dividend Cafe from East Hampton on June 19, a Juneteenth market holiday, and discusses whether current conditions signal a “top” while rejecting short-term market timing. He notes elevated S&P 500 multiples based on operating earnings and warns that today’s concern is more about market mood and complacency than valuations alone, citing Bill Ackman’s SpaceX-related quote as symptomatic of circular reasoning about value. Bahnsen argues the risk paradigm is shifting as companies move from low reinvestment and buybacks toward heavy capex, more borrowing, and potential equity issuance. He highlights NVIDIA and Broadcom stocks lagging despite strong revenue growth as possible signs of over-discounted narratives, and points to extreme SpaceX valuation as a sentiment indicator. He also describes a Fed leadership shift toward a more constrained approach that may tolerate froth coming out of risk assets, concluding investors should prioritize rational, defensible portfolios tied to operating performance and dividend growth.

00:00 Summer Intro and Holiday

00:57 Is This the Top

02:33 Valuations Aren't the Trigger

04:45 The Market Vibe Problem

06:13 Ackman Quote Warning Sign

09:27 Risk Paradigm Shifts

11:59 NVIDIA and Broadcom Signals

14:32 SpaceX Valuation and Mood

16:19 Fed Regime Change

19:53 Do the Right Thing

22:19 Closing Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - June 18, 2026 Jun 18, 2026

Show notes

On Thursday, June 18, David Bahnsen recapped a strong market day led by the Nasdaq (up nearly 500 points, just under 2%), with the S&P 500 up just over 1% and the Dow up 72 points. Technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services led, while energy, financials, healthcare, and consumer staples lagged. He highlighted SpaceX’s roughly $2.5 trillion market cap (down from nearly $3 trillion days earlier after a 17–18% drop) and contrasted it with Amazon and Microsoft profitability versus SpaceX’s $19 billion in sales and a $9 billion loss. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 226,000 (four-week average 223,000). Bond yields reflected further curve flattening: the 10-year fell to 4.45% while shorter maturities rose.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:23 Market Rally Snapshot

00:44 Sector Winners and Losers

01:07 SpaceX Valuation Reality Check

02:33 Jobless Claims Update

02:54 Yield Curve Flattening

03:28 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - June 17, 2026 Jun 17, 2026

Show notes

David Bahnsen recaps a major market day following the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, where the Fed left rates unchanged but offered a notably brief statement with little forward guidance. The dot plot implied higher rates ahead, though Warsh declined to submit his own projection, reinforcing his opposition to forward guidance as a policy tool. In his first press conference, Warsh announced five task forces covering Fed communications, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks, and emphasized focusing on what data says about the economy rather than predicting the Fed’s reaction. Markets sold off: the Dow swung from +280 to close -500, the S&P fell 1.25%, and the Nasdaq more than 1.25%, alongside a yield-curve flattening with short rates up far more than the 10-year. All 11 S&P sectors ended down.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:10 Fed Meeting Recap

01:14 Dot Plot and Guidance

01:55 Five Fed Task Forces

02:44 Reaction Function Critique

04:17 Market Selloff and Yields

05:29 Sector Performance Breakdown

06:02 Economic Data Check

06:26 Wrap Up and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday - June 16, 2026 Jun 16, 2026

Show notes

David Bahnsen recaps Tuesday, June 16 market action with the Dow up 329 points (+0.64%) while the S&P fell over 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1.15% as big tech/AI names sold off. Oil fell another 4.5% with WTI around $77, and the 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.437%. Financials rallied about 1.5% (helping the Dow), with strength also in some healthcare names, while energy mostly continued lower. Bahnsen argues Monday’s rally was less about Iran/Strait of Hormuz headlines and more a return to AI-tech momentum, which reversed Tuesday, framing the key market tension as AI momentum and valuations versus more fundamental sectors like REITs, healthcare, industrials, and staples. He also defines “first-year maximum drawdown” as the largest peak-to-trough decline in a stock’s first year post-IPO.

00:00 Market Recap Overview

00:38 Sector Rotation Snapshot

01:31 Bonds and Tech Divergence

02:11 Debunking the Iran Rally

03:04 AI Momentum vs Fundamentals

04:07 What Drawdown Means

05:02 Wrap Up and Contact

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Monday - June 15, 2026 Jun 15, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eITc6m

David Bahnsen covers a broad “around the horn” Monday Dividend Cafe, highlighting extreme SpaceX IPO trading volume as evidence of IPO mania rather than price discovery. Markets rallied on weekend news of a forthcoming U.S.-Iran agreement and a planned signing, with the Dow up 469 points, the S&P up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up over 3%; technology led while energy fell, small caps continued to outperform, and the 10-year yield held near 4.47%. He notes key unknowns in the Iran deal (Hormuz terms, enforcement, uranium, funds). Economic and policy updates include May industrial production up 0.1%, falling homebuilder sentiment (35), and housing affordability bill uncertainty. He previews the FOMC meeting and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference, cites the ECB’s first hike in over three years, discusses lower oil and gasoline prices, answers a question on dividend growth returns, and closes celebrating the Knicks’ first title in 53 years.

00:00 Welcome and Agenda

01:02 SpaceX IPO Mania

03:11 Markets Rally and Rotation

05:27 Iran Deal Unknowns

07:28 Economic and Policy Updates

09:13 Housing Sentiment Check

10:01 Central Banks and Fed Week

11:05 Oil and Gas Price Moves

11:50 Dividend Growth Q&A

13:37 Knicks Championship Moment

15:31 Closing Thanks

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

IPO Mania Jun 12, 2026

Show notes

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49T1HsR

David Bahnsen returns Dividend Cafe to its normal market focus and records Thursday to avoid being influenced by SpaceX’s anticipated IPO trading. He discloses he and some clients own SpaceX via an SPV and will be locked up for a year, after which he expects to sell. Using SpaceX’s planned $75B raise with a very small public float and huge valuation, plus prospective trillion-dollar IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI, he argues public markets face unprecedented IPO valuation “indigestion.” He challenges the belief that IPOs are easy money driven by hype, limited supply, or forced index buying, citing history of large drawdowns after major IPOs and warning about post-lockup selling. He also notes private-company markups boosting reported earnings at mega-cap tech firms. His central message: IPO mania distracts from fundamentals and ignores risk-reward symmetry; “free money” doesn’t exist, and disciplined long-term investing matters.

00:00 Welcome Back Update

00:42 Why Record Early

02:18 SpaceX IPO Setup

05:00 Valuation Shockwave

08:00 IPO Pop Myth

09:38 Index Inclusion Hype

12:02 Hidden Earnings Impact

13:31 Ask Better Questions

17:16 Private To Public Shift

19:34 No Such Thing Free Money

20:47 Discipline And Wrap Up

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thursday - June 11, 2026 Jun 11, 2026

Show notes

Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal after a broad sell-off tied to Iran war rhetoric gave way to gains on news of progress toward a deal, with the Dow up about 900 points, the S&P 500 up 1.7%, and the Nasdaq up 2.25%. He notes meaningfully lower interest rates (10-year down 9 bps to ~4.45%) and oil’s reduced sensitivity to Strait of Hormuz headlines as shipping reroutes and supply adjustments develop. Economic data included a hotter-than-expected headline May PPI (1.1%) but cooler core PPI (0.4%) alongside slightly worse initial jobless claims (229k). He highlights earnings growth concentration in energy (+117%) and technology (~60%) versus weak growth in consumer discretionary and financials, and responds to a college grad’s question by framing AI as a tool, emphasizing human trust and expressing optimism about job opportunities.

00:00 Welcome and Setup

00:23 Market Reversal Rally

01:38 Rates and Oil Calm

02:41 PPI Inflation Breakdown

03:52 Jobless Claims Update

04:05 Earnings Sector Split

05:48 AI and Entry Jobs

07:21 Closing Remarks

07:37 Disclosures and Disclaimer

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

Wednesday - June 10, 2026 Jun 10, 2026

Show notes

From The Bahnsen Group’s West Palm Beach office on June 10, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off driven by a continued rotation out of overvalued tech/semiconductors and later by news the U.S. would resume strikes on Iran, after an initially encouraging CPI report helped markets rebound mid-morning. The Dow fell 953 points (1.87%) to session lows, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% and Nasdaq down 2%. Headline CPI for May was 0.5% (4.2% year over year), while core CPI was cooler at 0.2% (2.9% year over year), which he views as encouraging amid strong growth and employment. He notes oil rose but markets seem more desensitized as supply chains adapt. He also answers that splitting between a dividend growth portfolio and the S&P 500 is not a hedge due to high correlation; true hedging comes from asset allocation across stocks, bonds, alternatives, real assets, and cash.

00:00 Market Selloff Recap

01:26 CPI Surprise and Fed Focus

03:13 Middle East Risks and Oil

03:50 Oil Market Adapts

04:29 Ask TBG Portfolio Hedging

05:08 Real Hedging Asset Allocation

06:00 Wrap Up and Sign Off

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com