The "Daily Call" From Option Alpha

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#520 - Iron Butterfly Management: Close In Full Or Just Inside Legs? Feb 24, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to talk about iron butterfly management, close in full or just the inside legs. Many of you guys who follow us and follow the trades that I do… I do a lot of iron butterflies. I love doing them. We talked about them in detail about why we like them as straddle synthetics basically and then the ability to buy the outside legs for risk protection and margin protection for our account. And now, the question becomes – "When we get into a position that ends up hitting a profit target, what do we do? Do we close the full position or do we close just the inside legs?" Many people who are pro and elite members and follow the trades that I do, I will do both of these and it really just depends on the situation. And we're going to talk about that here in a second. But I will sometimes close the entire position in full. Sometimes I will close just the inside legs and I kind of flip back and forth between doing this. Now, it's not that I just flip a coin and I say, "Okay. This time, I'm going to close the position in full and this time, I'm going to close the inside legs." There's actually a logical process to how we do it and there's a reason why we would choose one over the other.

When it comes to closing an iron butterfly, what I look at specifically is the value of the outside legs or the outside wings. That alone will determine whether I choose to close the position in full or just close the inside legs. For example, if we are trading an iron butterfly and we sell it for let's say $100 and now, the iron butterfly in total, is worth say $50. Maybe it reached a 50% profit target for us and we're going to look to close the position. Well, if I look at the value of the outside wings of that iron butterfly and I see that those outside wings are not worth anything, maybe they're worth a penny and it's just a placeholder there until expiration, well, then I know that all of the value of that $50 is tied up on the inside legs. And so, by closing the outside wings if I were to get filled on the position which is still a big if, I'm not gaining much from that. I maybe take in $1 of credit for selling back those outside wings and then after commissions, maybe I'm only left with a little bit of money, a couple of quarters or if you trade on Robinhood or some of these free brokers, you only get $1 for doing it. It's not really worth it and you still got to fill those positions.

If they're worth $1, they're worth $2, in many cases, I'll leave them on, let them expire worthless and I'll just simply close the inside strikes because most of the value or all the value is tied up on the inside strikes. There's no reason to force ourselves to fill these illiquid outside options that are not worth anything anyway. What I'll do is I'll leave these on and I generally call them our little lottery tickets. If the market does blow up or if aliens invade earth, then these things will go bananas and will pay out huge. That generally does not happen. I've only ever I think maybe closed a couple these once or twice or maybe even less than a handful of times before in the past and it has not been major outsized gains. Sometimes they go up $50 and you can close them out for an extra little profit, but it really doesn't happen that often. We just leave them on because they're not hurting our portfolio. They're helping reduce black swan risk if you can consider it that way, but it's just not worth it to close them.

When I look at those outside wings and if I see that those outside wings have a lot of value left in them, say over $5, they're worth $10 or $20 or in some cases, still worth $40, $50 or have moved a lot, then I will definitely close the entire position because I know that if I can close all the wings and all the strikes together, I'm still left with a $50 kind of value and that's at my profit target after I closed everything, then I'll do everything in full. Again, to me, the biggest determinant for making this decision is the value of the outside wings of this iron butterfly. If the value of the outside wings is a couple of pennies, I'll probably just close the inside strikes, leave the outside wings on to expire worthless. Hopefully this helps out. If you have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#519 - How Much Money Do You Need To Short Sell Stock? Feb 23, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to answer the question – "How much money do you need to short or sell stock?" This is a big question that people ask all the time and it's particularly interesting when people start getting into the world of investing and trading. They learn that they can actually make money by shorting stock or selling short stock and they can make money after the stock drops in price. You don't have to make money necessarily by buying stock and then selling it at a higher price. You can sell it or short-sell it and then buy it back in at a lower price. Now, the question is – "Well, how much money do I need to start doing this?" Well, there's a couple of things you have to think about. One, you have to think about the initial margin that's required on a position and many brokers then kind of hamburger on or stack on top of that, their own individual brokerage requirements.

Right now, FINRA who's the regulatory agency for this requires that you at least have $2,000 in your account if you're going to go on margin to do this which is what you would essentially be doing when you go short stock and many brokers like Charles Schwab or Fidelity or TD Ameritrade require that you have something more than that in your account before you start selling stocks. There's the standard for FINRA and the regulatory side and then the brokers will also later on top of that, their own requirements for what you have to do to sell short stock. Besides this, FINRA also requires a maintenance margin which is 25% of the value of the shorted stock in your account. This is important because they want to make sure that you have enough money to cover any potential losses should the stock actually increase in price. If you short stock at say $20 a share and it goes up to $30 a share, you're going to have to come up with more cash or just have enough cash there as a cushion to allow for the 25% of that new stock price in the future. Some brokers are even as high as 40% or 50% in maintenance margin.

Again, FINRA is just kind of setting the bar here of 25%, but then most brokers will have some sort of layered protection on top of that based on their own risk parameters and how risky they perceive your account or people with your types of accounts being when you short stock. Ultimately though, as an options trader, I don't think you ever need to short stock. You can go short a security and bet against that security if you want to do that with options and you can do it in a much more risk defined capital efficient manner with a much higher probability of success. I think shorting stock is great and is fine. I think it's a good thing for the industry. I just don't think that people need to do it on the retail level, the personal level like me and you when we're actually trading. I think it's just way too much risk for individual traders to be shorting stock. I don't think you need to do it. I think you can use options as a means to bet against the security or bet against the stock going down and it's much more controlled, much more capital efficient. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#518 - How Reliable Are Option Probabilities When Markets Are Volatile? Feb 22, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to answer the question – "How reliable are option probabilities when markets are volatile?" I want to tackle this question by using an analogy and just kind of telling a quick story here with my son. My son who's our third child is about nine months old now. He started to crawl just recently. Now, he's starting to kind of lift himself up on things. He thinks he's really cool and he can lift himself up on chairs and desks and walls and so, now, he's starting to progress into this different stage of going from crawling to eventually walking. But just the other day, he was lifting himself up and then tripped himself basically because he was trying to figure out how his feet works and he tripped and fell and kind of hit his head pretty hard on the floor as he was trying to lift himself up. And so, in this moment now, this has now changed how I view him and how I'm parenting him in the sense that I'm much more protective and I'm right there next to him with my hands on both sides when he starts to lift himself up because now, I know he's got enough strength to do it and he could potentially fall again and kind of trip himself and roll and hit his head and so, now, I'm overprotective. Now, any little sudden movements even if potentially, that's not going to lead to him falling down and hurting his head ends up being something that I catch him on or I hold him up or I tilt him back in the right direction, kind of like lean him in the right direction. And the reason I use this analogy is because conceptually, the same thing happens if you think about it in the options market when we go from periods of low implied volatility or low volatility to periods of high volatility.

When markets are calm and there's no volatility, option pricing I would say as a whole starts to contract. People are not as afraid. They're not as worried because they just don't know what's coming. They don't know that something is going to happen, some black swan event is coming down the line. And so, generally, during low implied volatility markets, we see this contraction in option pricing and option probabilities and now, the probabilities start to more mirror what the expected outcome is in the market. Now, this is not to say that option probabilities end up being exactly what the expected move is. We still see over-expectation in option probabilities. Let's say the market is expecting a stock to move 10%. The stock might move 8%. There's still an over-expectation, but it's becoming smaller and smaller. That margin or that spread is starting to contract. When we start to see now a black swan type of event, say my son falling and I didn't know that he had enough strength to get himself up and then trip himself, now, this black swan event totally changes the market and so, now, option probabilities and option pricing swell and people start buying options aggressively and there's much more volatility and there's much more movement in the underlying stock and what happens is that the market overreacts by a much larger margin. Now, volatility might be expected on a stock of say 20%, but the option pricing is assuming the stock is going to move 30%. Yes, the markets are volatile, but what we end up seeing in these volatile markets is that option pricing is over-reactionary to what actually ends up happening. This is why during these time periods, you end up generally making the most amount of money trading options on a kind of per trade P&L basis because the markets overreact. Just like me as a parent when my son fell for the first time just the other day, kind of standing himself up, now, I'm over-reactionary and I'm right there with him no matter what happens and in many cases, he hasn't fallen a lot. He kind of trips and stumbles, but he's kind of getting his balance and so, that's what ends up happening in the market too. Markets overreact, option pricing swells, we get a much wider margin or disparity between the implied expectation and the actual reality of the stock.

Hopefully this helps out and hopefully this answers the question. If you have any comments or have any other questions you want to get added to the show, please head on over to optionalpha.com/ask and until next time, happy trading.

#517 - Using Other People's Money (OPM) For Investing In Options? Feb 21, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we got an interesting topic and we're talking about using other people's money (OPM) for investing in options. Somebody recently wrote in the Facebook group and they said, "Using other people's money or bank loans for investing is common in startups and real estate. (which it is) Is there any particular reason why this shouldn't work for options considering that we're only investing in this vehicle out of the three mentioned here (we can invest in options, startups or real estate) that can set realistic probabilities of success? Why risk yourself getting a mortgage, buy a house and try to rent it to cover the mortgage payments and other expenses and not getting a loan with the lowest possibly APR to increase your capital to invest in options?" Now, look. I will definitely blanket say this statement that I do not agree necessarily with this style of investing. One, because I feel like as opposed to other things like startups or real estate which in some cases, you have a little bit more control over which is different than options trading, that when you get into the world of options trading, what is your single biggest risk in this environment (and we have talked about this on weekly podcasts) is the idea of this sequencing risk that comes with a high probability system like this. Just using real estate because I also invest in real estate, so I can speak to this on very high level terms, when you invest in real estate, you have a lot more control over what you're going to do, so there's no blanket like you're going to rent it or you may not for eight months because you could reduce the rent and potentially rent it out for less than expected, but at least you're going to keep it rented for eight months. Maybe you shoot for $1,000 in rent and you can't get anybody for a month, so you drop it down to $900 and boom, you've got a tenant.

There's a lot more control over what you can do there. In the options market, though you have control over position size and all these things that we talk about, tickers, diversity, portfolio balance, what you still don't have control over are things like black swans and sequencing risk. Even the best portfolio, the best position size, everything can go through just a bad sequence of returns where you just have a pretty good drawdown that you have to ride out. And so, the question becomes – "If you go through that type of scenario and you're using OPM or other people's money, how long can you survive in that void or that gap before you start having to miss payments or leverage other things to make ends meet? And so, I'm not a fan of it for that reason. Sure there's probably exceptions to the rule. There's probably people who like if you can get a 1% 30-year loan and it's interest only payments, okay, maybe, I don't know. You could probably build a case for me and sway my decision. Generally though, I don't think it's a good idea only because of the sequencing risk that's involved in markets and I think people end up doing things that are not necessarily the best for their portfolio, is trying to fight back and especially when you have loans hanging over you or payments hanging over you, you tend not to make the best decisions. Anyways, that's my take on it, but as always, really good interesting topic to discuss. If you have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#516 - Should You Take Profits Early When Selling Naked Puts? Feb 20, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, our question is – "Should you take profits early when selling naked puts?" Again, this question came out of an email that somebody sent me and they said, "Kirk. When we're selling puts on a quality stock, is it more advantageous to go ahead and take the 50% profit like we would on a spread or should we let it go to expiration for the full credit being that the worst-case scenario is you put the stock and you wouldn't mind owning it anyway? The idea is that to turn right around and sell covered calls on it should we get assigned." We're basically talking about a concept called "the wheel strategy" which is you sell a put, if you get assigned, you end up doing the covered call and then you go back and forth through this cycle or this wheel of selling puts and selling covered calls, etcetera.

The sticking point on this question I think that's really interesting is what they said when they set a quality stock or basically a stock that they wouldn't mind owning. The question is always and I post this to people a lot when we're doing coaching is – "Do you want to own the stock or are you more interested in generating income from selling options against it?" And then if you want to own the stock, then I would say go ahead and ride it out for the full credit because what is ultimately going to happen at some point is you're going to end up owning the stock. It's not a matter of – If it's going to happen, but when it's actually going to happen. But if you're more concerned with potentially generating income and making money from trading options around a stock, then I would say you're better off to take profits.

Now, again, the tradeoff here is that when we do back-testing and research, we know taking profits early helps improve win rates, reduce drawdowns. All that stuff is good. But what we do know from research too is that when you hold it a little bit longer towards expiration and in some cases, not all the way to expiration, but maybe hold it for a 75% profit versus a 50% profit target, you end up generating more money overall, but in exchange for that additional benefit of generating more money, you also have a little bit more volatility in your account which means that you might potentially have slightly lower win rates in some case, you might have bigger drawdowns in some cases on the way to generating more money. It is a tradeoff. It's not that you can just arbitrarily do one versus the other and it ultimately ends up being the same result. You are going to have a little bit of a tradeoff from generating more money to maybe a little bit more volatility in your account.

Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you have any of these scenario type questions you want to shoot over to us, head on over to optionalpha.com/ask and click the big red button in the middle of the screen. That's where we get a lot of these for the daily calls and also for the live Q&As that we do and until next time, happy trading.

#515 - Does Low IV Mean We Should Be Less Active Selling Options? Feb 19, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're answering a question which is – "Does low IV mean that we should be less active selling options?" When we're talking about IV, we're talking about implied volatility. This can either be implied volatility rank or implied volatility percentile for an underlying security that you're looking at. But the question again is – "Should we be less active when selling options during low implied volatility environments?" And I think the answer to this question is yes, we should absolutely be less active overall. Now, that does not mean that we are not active in selling options. We still need to be selling options, but what we should be doing is we should be scaling back our position size and waiting for higher implied volatility markets to be a little bit more aggressive.

Again, this doesn't mean that we should not be option-selling and perform option-selling strategies like straddles and strangles, iron butterflies and iron condors. You should absolutely still be active in selling options, but we should just be less active than we would otherwise be in a high implied volatility market. And the reason that we want to do that is because we know during high implied volatility setups, we generally see better win rates, we see better total P&Ls, we see less volatility in the portfolio generally, so that means during low implied volatility markets when we're still going to have an opportunity to make money selling options, we just want to scale back our position size and not be succumb to basically plowing a bunch of capital into a non-perfect environment or a non-close to as perfect environment as we could possibly get to. When implied volatility rises and we start to see a lot more volatility in the market, then was start scaling our position size up a little bit to take advantage of that. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you have any questions, let us know and until next time, happy trading.

#514 - Should You Manage An Iron Condor As Two Credit Spreads? Feb 18, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to answer another question which is – "Should you manage an iron condor as two credit spreads?" Again, this question came out of our Facebook community. Somebody asked in there and posted a comment and they said, "Kirk. Assuming you have two credit spreads, do you have an opinion as to if these need to be sold simultaneously or could you try to watch the price a bit and sell the put credit spread and the call credit spread at two different times, hopefully optimizing either entry or exit?" And so, conceptually, I think this makes a lot of sense why you would want to manage a position as two separate spreads. If the market is down potentially and looks like it could be going back up, maybe you sell the put spread and then later, you add the call spread after the markets rally.

I think conceptually, it makes a lot of sense why you can do it. I think in reality and in practice, I don't think it's as easy to do it because we're still trying to pick direction and movement of this underlying security and I think that's still really hard to do. I understand when people ask this question and again, in theory, it works really, really well, but the reality or the practice of it doesn't work as well. I would generally default to not managing it as two separate spreads. I would manage it as one single position and I would then use the opportunity to ladder into different contracts as a means to basically accomplish the same thing without having to sell one side first and then add the other side. What I see as being potentially harmful to this type of strategy is that if you sell one side of a credit spread for example, assuming you're going to do the iron condor later on, the stock could move against you very quickly and you have a massive loss on your hands. You would've been better-served had you taken in the additional credit from selling the other call spread side at the same time. It would've kind of reduced some of the pain from the stock moving against you.

I'm more of a fan of spreading the trade out over time, just doing more laddered entries as opposed to doing separate spreads. This isn't to say though that we don't do spreads individually to help balance out the portfolio and we'll do one side of a position knowing that we could adjust into an existing iron butterfly or iron condor later, but that's more of a means to balance out other positions in the portfolio. For example, if our portfolio is really bullish and we need some bearish positions, we might deliberately go out and sell a call credit spread on something because that's what the portfolio needs at the time. We want to make sure that individual position is still a good position, high probability of success, adds diversity, but we don't need to do the full iron condor or iron butterfly because what the portfolio needs is more bearish exposure. That's why we would sell the call spread. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#513 - When Should You NOT Add More Laddered Trades? Feb 17, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to answer another question from the Facebook community that we got recently which is – "When should you not add more laddered trades?" Again, the question that somebody asked was the following and they said, "How do you decide if you should add more trades to the same underlying (basically ladder into more positions) if the first trades have already started to get challenged?" This is a really good question and it's something that comes up again and again. It's this concept of laddering which most people understand, but really quickly, it's just the idea that we're going to spread our trades out over time. Like rungs of a ladder, you don't jump from the bottom of a ladder to the top. You have rungs that you kind of slowly creep up or creep down to get up and down the ladder. Very much like that for trading, we're going to ladder into positions by entering a small batch of trades in a ticker, then if the stock moves or when the stock moves, we'll enter another small batch, say a set of two contracts, followed by another set of two contracts, followed by another set of two contracts.

The question is – "When do you stop laddering?" Well, the first answer to this is you would stop laddering when your position size is full. Once you have reached your targeted position size, whether it took two entries or three entries or five entries, you should stop laddering. That should be self-explanatory, but in case it's not, that's the first one. The second reason you would stop laddering is if the stock starts to move sideways. Now, this sometimes is going to happen potentially early in the expiration cycle and you might have planned to get into say three or four laddered positions in a security, but the stock is not moving. It's just trading dead sideways from your original entry. In this case, I choose to often not ladder into more positions or what I refer to as hamburgering which is not a technical term by any stretch, but I just made it up – is hamburgering your positions one on top of another, like I will not throw another hamburger or another position on top of an existing one. If the first position is working out and we wanted the stock to move sideways, it's moving sideways, why mess with it, why touch it, okay? That's the second way or reason that you would not ladder into more trades.

The third way or reason you would not ladder into more trades is if one of your long strikes when you're doing a risk defined strategy gets breached because when your long strike gets breached, if you are in a position where you're doing say an iron butterfly, an iron condor or a credit spread, you don't want to add those beyond a long strike. That creates a void or a gap in the payoff diagram which actually in many cases, could lead you to take in on more risk than you initially thought you might be taking for the position. We often use those long strikes as basically like the fail stop for laddering into contracts. If the stock has moved so far and so quickly that it has basically breached the long strike on either side, then we would stop all laddering procedures and start actually making adjustments to positions. Otherwise, I think laddering is pretty easy conceptually. You want the stock to move, you know the stock is going to eventually move, so why pick the direction? Start with an initial position where the stock is now and then as the stock continues to move, a couple of days later, add another position, a couple of days later, add another position, etcetera, etcetera. Hopefully this helps out. If you have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.

#512 - Scratch Profit, Keep Holding, Or Roll For A Credit? Feb 16, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to answer a question which is basically – "Scratch profit, keep holding or roll a position for a credit?" Now, this question came out of the Option Alpha community on Facebook which if you're not part of the Option Alpha community on Facebook, I don't know what you've been doing on Facebook just scrolling around aimlessly, but you should definitely join and take a look. But I asked everyone in there and I said, "Look. Give me a list of questions for the daily call podcast." This is one of the questions that ended up coming up and they said, "As expiration week approaches, if a trade has not reached our say 25% profit target, but is still positive, say where we have a 5% profit, is it better to roll the position for a credit if that's possible or close out the trade as a scratch?" Again, the question is, "Scratch profit, keep holding potentially or even roll the trade for a credit?"

My opinion on this is to close the trade as a scratch profit. If you have held the trade all the way to the week of expiration and it still has not reached your profit target, but you have a profit on the table, I say you take the profit and reset the position in the next month manually with a brand-new trade. Now, can you roll the position to the next month for a credit? For sure, you can do that and you should take in a substantial credit on the roll. I would not roll a position that is a little bit of a profit for say a $5 extra credit in the next expiration month. The reason is that if you get into a situation like that and you can't roll for a substantial credit, it's probably because the position is not centered or is not neutral to the new stock price. The position might be on the edge of a breakeven. My opinion there is again, take the scratch trade, the scratch profit, remove the position and re-center the new option strategy over wherever the new stock price is in the next expiration period.

That's always been my position on trades like this that are kind of marginal at best. Sometimes we even close trades that are scratch losses. We're not of the opinion that everything should be rolled. If it's a $10, $20, $100 losing trade and it's kind of just a scratch loss, it's right on the edge, right around the breakevens, sometimes we'll just close the position, start over fresh, kind of reset the strike prices in the next expiration month. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you guys have any questions you want me to get added or queued up here to the daily call podcast, please head on over to optionalpha.com/ask. That is where we take these questions from. We get a list of those, we add those to the podcast and all the Facebook Lives that we do and we get them queued up for you guys and hopefully, start answering a lot of these questions. Until next time, happy trading.

#511 - What Indicators Are Best For Day Trading? Feb 15, 2019

Show notes

Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to answer the question – "What indicators are best for day-trading?" Truth be told, about two and a half years ago now I think, we released our research report on technical analysis indicators which we lovingly refer to as the Signals report. And so, you can get to it by going to optionalpha.com/signals, but in either case, I'm going to tell you what we found as it relates to day-trading. You don't have to purchase the report to actually get this information. I'm going to literally tell you right now in this podcast. But what we ended up doing is we ended up testing all kinds of different indicators across different ticker symbols for basically 20 years and what we wanted to figure out was – Is there a set or is there a specific parameter for a set of indicators that generates enough occurrences in the right direction and with enough profits to make it meaningful? Are these indicators basically a bunch of hot air or are there some indicators that generally end up working?

What we found is that there was no indicator, not even a set of indicators with very specific parameters… And we tested everything and what I mean by we tested everything, we tested a five-day moving average versus a ten versus a 15 and we tested all these different parameters among basically a handful of the top indicators that are out there. We found no indicator that actually created reliable signals for the purposes of day-trading securities. Now, to be clear, we did not test intraday indicators. We did not test on a minute or five-minute or 30-minute basis. What we were only testing was daily data. But still, as far as a day-trading indicator goes, we tried to figure out – Hey. Are there any indicators that could work for a couple of days? And most people who are day-trading are not truly intraday trading. They're day-trading over the course of five or six days or over the course of two weeks and they're trying to pick tops and bottoms. But again, what we found in our research is that there's no indicator that works on such a small time horizon, say under 14, under 30 days that has a lot of reliability. And so, the overwhelming answer that we concluded from doing this research and doing basically 12 million trades in back-testing was that day-trading is almost impossible to do and most indicators do not have enough predictive capacity to give you signals that end up working.

What are the best indicators for day-trading? I don't think there are any better indicators for day-trading. I think day-trading is a very hard conceptual business to get into. It's not to say that people can't do it. We talked about this in a previous podcast. I'm sure there's guys out there who do it. I know for sure there's probably guys out there who do it and do it well. That's not to take anything away from them, but they have probably skills that most investors don't have or they have access that most investors don't have. When it comes to day-trading, it's really hard to do. A lot of indicators that say they're day-trading indicators, at least the ones that we tested and the parameters that we tested end up yielding no good results. You're much better off being a position trader with options or even a position trader with stock and holding onto positions a little bit longer than a couple of days or a couple of weeks. Hopefully this helps out. As always, if you have any questions, let us know and until next time, happy trading.

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