Show notes
Hey everyone. This is Kirk here again from Option Alpha and welcome back to the daily call. Today, we're going to use a very simple Apple put option example just to help you kind of walk through how you can understand how to sell put options in a particular stock. I like to use Apple because it's a really popular ticker for everyone. Everyone knows Apple, they're familiar with it and it gets a lot of attention. We're just going to do this at the time that I'm actually recording this. And so, right now, ironically enough, Apple is trading pretty much at $200. It was just downgraded today, so it's trading a little bit lower on the day, about 2.5% or so, but it's trading right around $200 a share. When we look at a put option, obviously, what we're trying to do is sell a put option, hope that the stock does not go below our strike price or our blended breakeven price and look to collect all that premium or as much of that premium as possible before expiration. Now, at the time I'm recording this, it looks like August expiration is about 40 days out from now, so we've got a decent amount of time. It's not an insane amount of time, but we're just beyond 30 days, so we've got a pretty good amount of time for Apple to close within our expected range.
Now, you have a couple different choices and this is where you really have to decide ultimately what works best for you and what works best in this market environment that we're in right now. The first one that we'll look at… And we'll just look at two examples, so you can kind of compare and contrast the differences between them. But this is the beauty of options, is you do have really options (no pun intended) on how you can go about this and you can pinpoint your probability of success or how much premium you want to take in, how much risk you want to take on the position. It's all up to you. The first thing that we can do is we can look at something that's fairly close to where the stock is trading, but also gives us potentially a high probability of success. The 15 Delta put options right now are the 180 strike put options. Again, the stock is trading at about $200. If we were to sell the 180 strike puts, that would give us around a 15 Delta which means it probably has around a 15% probability of being in the money at expiration. If you think about it in the inverse, you probably got about an 85% chance of winning on this trade. Now, right now, the 15 Delta 180 strike put options are trading for $177, so if we want to sell those options, we would collect $177 and then we would carry a bunch of margin to cover that position. But again, we have a high probability of success, we have to put up a lot of money and capital just in case it does go sideways because we're likely to lose more than $177 if the stock starts going down. In that case though, if we sell the 180 put options and we have a credit of $177, that would actually make our blended breakeven price around $178.32 or $.23 or so. We'd have a breakeven price that's a little bit lower than where the stock is trading now.
Now, as opposed to doing the 180 strike put options, we could sell something a little bit further out. If you told me, "Kirk, I'm just not that risky. 180 might be close. The stock just got downgraded today. It's moving down on the day. I don't know if it'll go down to 180 by the time we get to expiration." Okay, fine. We can go a little bit further out and we can sell something around say like a five Delta. A five Delta would be super far out of the money at least for Apple is concerned or for any other stock is concerned and you're selling something that has a really high probability of success, but in exchange, you get a lot less premium. In this case, if we were to sell the five Delta put options which have a roughly 5% chance of being in the money, so a 95% chance that they would expire worthless or close to worthless at expiration, selling those put options would be selling options down at 165. Now, you're selling options that are much further away from where the stock is trading now, about $35 lower than where the stock is trading. That means that Apple could go through a massive move down lower and your option could still be worthless at expiration and you could collect all that premium. Now, because you have a much higher probability of success, you have to give up a lot of your premium. In this case, the 165 options are only trading for $.60, so when we use that against our breakeven point, we're only looking at kind of a blended breakeven point of 164.40.
As you can see here, this is the tradeoff in trading different strike prices and different out of the money contracts. You trade something a little bit closer, you collect a lot more money, but you also have a much higher probability that the stock goes in the money, so your P&L is going to fluctuate a lot more. You trade something a little bit further out and you have a higher probability of success, but you do give up on the premium. Now, we've done a couple podcast on this and kind of analyzed this on the weekly podcast, trying to figure out is there an optimal range and we think there's for many environments, probably a good range that you could look at. Again, check out the weekly podcast where we did talk about risk and reward and pricing of different spreads out of the money to help out. Hopefully this helps. As always, if you have any questions, let me know and until next time, happy trading.