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39. Algorithms of Armageddon with CAPT (Ret.) George Galdorisi Jul 08, 2021

Show notes

CAPT George Galdorisi (USN-Ret.) is a career naval aviator whose thirty years of active duty service included four command tours and five years as a carrier strike group chief of staff. He is currently the Director of Strategic Assessments and Technical Futures at the Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific in San Diego, California. He is also a contributing blogger for the Mad Scientist Laboratory, having written Creating a Convergence of Technologies to Defeat the Deadly Fast Inshore Attack Craft Threat Before 2050 and Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to Meet Warfighter Needs. CAPT Galdorisi also presented Designing Unmanned Systems For the Multi-Domain Battle (please access this video via a non-DoD network) as a Mad Scientist Speaker Series presentation on 10 January 2018.

CAPT Galdorisi began his writing career in 1978 with an article in the U.S. Navy’s professional magazine, U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings. Since then, he has written fifteen books published by mainstream publishers, including the New York Times bestseller, Tom Clancy Presents: Act of Valor, the novelization of the Bandito Brothers/Relativity Media film, and The Kissing Sailor, which proved the identity of the two principals in Alfred Eisenstaedt’s iconic V-J Day in Times Square photograph. His latest projects include a new series of thrillers published by Braveship books, as well as a recent collaboration with St. Martin’s Press rebooting the Tom Clancy Op-Center series. His three Braveship thrillers are: The Coronado Conspiracy, For Duty and Honor, and Fire and Ice, just released in 2021. The first three books of the rebooted Tom Clancy Op-Center series, Out of the Ashes, Into the Fire, and Scorched Earth are New York Times, USA Today, and Publisher’s Weekly best-sellers.

In today’s podcast, CAPT Galdorisi discusses leading edge technologies, man-machine teaming, and algorithms of armageddon. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

All military services must identify the “low hanging fruit” where Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be injected quickly and easily into the operational force. For example, the U.S. Army lost Soldiers on fuel and water resupply convoys during the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. AI can be incorporated into logistics platforms, replacing vulnerable human drivers in order to save lives.
We are still assessing who — human or machine — has the innate edge over the other; however, man-machine teaming is really what holds the advantage. We are slowly developing how to best pair manned and unmanned platforms to create a sum that is greater than its parts.
History is replete with battles where Leaders were forced to make command decisions with a limited or incomplete understanding of all available information. AI intelligence systems and entities conducting machine speed collection, collation, and analysis of battlefield information will free Commanders to do what they do best — fight and make decisions, respectively. Commanders will be able to focus on the battle with coup d’œil, or the “stroke of an eye,” maintaining situational awareness without consuming precious time crunching data. AI’s role is not to make decisions free from human input, but rather to assist decision makers by presenting logical alternatives.
We are techno-realists, not techno-optimists. Fiction is a great tool to help determine the future of warfare; however, it often includes idealized AI solutions. Where as in reality, this is not the case. We are not trying to change the world with AI, so much as go after the low hanging fruit to initiate change.
The Army is leading the way in autonomous convoys and wearable devices that can help lighten the load for the Soldier. The most important thing is to recognize the importance of AI and autonomy for the Services and DoD which is happening at Senior Leader levels. Each Service can do much better in sharing their best practices and ideas for AI solutions and innovations.
For his novels, Mr. Galdorisi begins by thinking about what worries him regarding the military and builds a scenario around that fear. His novel, Fire and Ice, depicts Soviet meddling into Eastern Europe and the possibility of Russia holding its energy supply hostage in order to exercise power over Europe. With its European presence, the Army must be aware of the potential for Europe to become the next host of a new cold war and posture itself to prevail.
New writers should get their feet wet by writing articles for professional journals before undertaking an entire novel.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring our interview with Air Force Gaming leads Capt Zachary Baumann, Capt Oliver Parsons, and MSgt Michael Sullivan discussing how gaming breaks down barriers like rank and geography, the digital talent residing in the gaming community, and how video games can cultivate the future senior leaders of the military. Check out our video teaser from this upcoming podcast!

How did you like this podcast? Have you had a chance to rate or review it on Apple, Stitcher, Spotify, or wherever you accessed it? This feedback helps us to improve future episodes of The Convergence and allows us to reach a bigger and broader audience — Thank you!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following additional content by CAPT Galdorisi:

How Can the U.S. Army Effectively Leverage Leading-Edge Technologies? Are There Rewards and Risks?, with co-author Dr. Sam Tangredi (CAPT, USN–Ret.), U.S. Naval War College

Creating a Convergence of Technologies to Defeat the Deadly Fast Inshore Attack Craft Threat Before 2050

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to Meet Warfighter Needs.

Designing Unmanned Systems For the Multi-Domain Battle (please access this video via a non-DoD network)

… and review the following related content:

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

“Own the Night”

How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future?

Insights from the Robotics and Autonomy Series of Virtual Events

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

The Convergence: Bringing AI to the Joint Force, and the associated podcast

38. Worldbuilding with Dr. Malka Older Jun 24, 2021

Show notes

Dr. Malka Older is a writer, aid worker, and sociologist. Her science-fiction political thriller Infomocracy was named one of the best books of 2016 by Kirkus, Book Riot, and the Washington Post. This is the first novel of the Centenal Cycle trilogy, which also includes Null States (2017) and State Tectonics (2018). The trilogy was a finalist for the Hugo Best Series Award of 2018. She is also the creator of the serial Ninth Step Station and the author of the short story collection …and Other Disasters. Named Senior Fellow for Technology and Risk at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs for 2015, Dr. Older has more than a decade of field experience in humanitarian aid and development. Her doctoral work on the sociology of organizations at The Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po) explores the dynamics of post-disaster improvisation in governments. Dr. Older is a part-time Faculty Associate at Arizona State University‘s School for the Future of Innovation in Society (SFIS)

In today’s podcast, Dr. Older discusses worldbuilding and inspirations drawn from her humanitarian work. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

In Infomocracy, Dr. Older explores an alternative to our current media environment. Instead of fragmented media environments and the concept of media neutrality, she presents an idealized information management officer – a well-intentioned single source for information. With this comes the realization that even a single actor with good intentions could hold massive influence in society.
The inspiration for Infomocracy came from Dr. Older’s disaster relief work while responding to an earthquake for which the United Nations brought in a dedicated information management officer to collate all information and ensure the response team had what was fundamental to completing their work. This curated the idea of centralizing information that was then widely dispersed. Dr. Older began thinking about the role of information in our society and how it is portrayed through media.
When thinking about content for science fiction writing, it is important to experience things outside your comfort zone in order to give yourself an idea of the possible, while also taking an introspective look at yourself.
Experiencing diverse communities allows you to truly get a different perspective on future possibilities. Some places may vary so much from your “normal” world that they could resemble the past or a possible future.
The most effective tool for worldbuilding is being able to effectively observe your surroundings and tune into the way your brain works when everything seems new. Older’s goal is to have readers feel thrown into a story and do a little bit of work to figure out what is going on, why people act in a certain way, and what is important.
The contrast between predictions of the future we think of as non-fiction — even if we accept that they’re not necessarily true or correct all the time (e.g., weather forecasts or Fictional Intelligence) — with Science Fiction is important to keep in mind. We need to figure out how these two ways of talking about the future complement each other, so we do not falsely prioritize one over the other.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring our interview with CAPT George Galdorisi (USN-Ret.) about leading edge technologies, man-machine teaming, and algorithms of armageddon.

If you enjoyed this podcast, please consider giving us a rating or review on Apple, Stitcher, Spotify, or wherever you accessed it. This feedback helps us to improve future episodes of The Convergence and allows us to reach a bigger and broader audience — Thank you!

37. Realer Than Real: Useful Fiction with P.W. Singer and August Cole Jun 10, 2021

Show notes

Peter Warren Singer is Strategist and Senior Fellow at New America. He has been named by the Smithsonian as one of the nation’s 100 leading innovators, by Defense News as one of the 100 most influential people in defense issues, and by Foreign Policy to their Top 100 Global Thinkers List. Mr. Singer is the author of multiple best-selling, award winning books in both fiction and nonfiction. Described in the Wall Street Journal as “the premier futurist in the national-security environment,” Mr. Singer is considered one of the world’s leading experts on changes in 21st century warfare, with more books on the military professional reading lists than any other author, living or dead. He has consulted for the U.S. Military, Defense Intelligence Agency, and FBI, as well as advised a range of entertainment programs, including for Warner Brothers, Dreamworks, Universal, HBO, Discovery, History Channel, and the video game series Call of Duty.
August Cole is an author and futurist exploring the future of conflict through fiction and other forms of storytelling. He is a non-resident fellow at the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Creativity at Marine Corps University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council; he directed the Council’s Art of the Future Project, which explores creative and narrative works for insight into the future of conflict, from its inception in 2014 through 2017. Mr. Cole is a regular speaker to private sector, academic, and U.S. and allied government audiences. He also leads the Strategy team for the Warring with Machines AI ethics project at the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
Messrs. Singer and Cole co-authored the best selling Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War, a near-future thriller about the next world war. Foreign Policy states “Every Army officer should read it…. we need to imagine what war will look like in the future so that we are prepared to win.” Last year, Messrs. Singer and Cole co-authored Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution — our colleagues at War on the Rocks stated that this novel “will do more for defense experts’ understanding of this brave new world with literature than a thousand non-fiction assessments would have.”
In today’s podcast, Messrs. Singer and Cole discuss the power of fictional intelligence; the importance of storytelling, narrative, and verisimilitude in crafting tales of future possibilities that resonate and inform; and the significance of imagination. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

FicInt, also known as fictional intelligence or ‘useful fiction,’ combines extensive research and futures forecasting with worldbuilding and narrative, one of the oldest forms of communication. The finished product involves an engaging and plausible storyline to introduce readers to novel trends and problems.
FicInt has four “rules of the real” that separate it from science fiction: research must be embedded in the story (usually via footnotes); the story must take place in a real-world setting; the story must involve real world people; and the timeline must be realistic. Using these rules, any white paper, report, or executive summary can be distilled into its key themes and drafted into narrative.
FicInt is also distinguished from science fiction via its engagement with the policy community. Fictional intelligence strives to react and be useful to the policy community, and thus engages with policy experts before, during, and after its development. This engagement may involve commissioned stories, workshops on how to create FicInt, or briefings on the end product.
The goal of FicInt is often to expose and prevent a possible future, rather than predict it. By creating plausible storylines, the security industry can adapt and develop programs and technologies to create an alternate future that prepares for the situations exposed by FicInt.
The value of narrative, compared to non-fiction research, can be found in three elements:
- Understanding: Narrative effectively packages information the way our brains are designed to absorb it, creating lasting messages.
- Action: By connecting information to our emotions, narrative is more likely to promote action.
- Connection: People are driven to share narratives, leading the audience of FicInt to become part of its marketing. This virality contributes to the creation of a network of people with increased understanding of potential futures.
Establishing FicInt credibility involves connection with target audiences and the real-world people featured in the narratives and responding to their feedback. This process ensures the end story is as accurate and plausible as possible.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring our interview with Dr. Malka Older – author of the Centenal Cycle series of science fiction novels – where she’ll discuss world-building, experiential learning, and inspiration from her humanitarian work in the third of our special series of podcasts exploring the power of science fiction, the importance of storytelling and narrative, and the significance of imagination.

36. Moonshot: A Sci-Fi Adventure with Ronald D. Moore May 27, 2021

Show notes

“The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them, into the impossible.” — Sir Arthur C. Clarke, 20th Century British science fiction writer, futurist, and inventor

Mad Scientist is pleased to introduce a new series of The Convergence podcast interviews with writers, creators, and producers who have a wealth of knowledge and experience in envisioning the future in diverse and unique ways! Creative writing and narrative building helps us to explore how emergent technologies and other capabilities could be employed and operationalized. Today’s post highlights key points from our interview with Ronald D. Moore — award winning screenwriter and producer of the several science fiction, fantasy, and alternative history television shows — in the first of our special series of podcasts exploring the power of science fiction, the importance of storytelling, and the significance of imagination

Ronald D. Moore is a multiple Emmy and Hugo award-winning screenwriter and producer for Star Trek: The Next Generation; Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, the re-imagined Battlestar Galactica (for which he also won a Peabody award), the Outlander historical fantasy series, Philip K. Dick’s Electric Dreams, and the For All Mankind streaming series portraying an alternative history featuring an enduring American/Soviet Space Race after the Russians beat us to the Moon.

In today’s podcast, Mr. Moore discusses creativity, the power of science fiction in exploring future technologies, the importance of storytelling and narrative, and the significance of imagination in formulating fresh perspectives about future possibilities. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

Thinking about the future involves both world-building and storytelling. To do this process successfully, futurists must first identify constants and relevant social elements (e.g., religion, government structure, culture) for the desired time period. Then, one can consider key changes in the time period, and think through their second and third order impacts on the society being discussed.
By harnessing the powerful process of developing science fiction narratives, the U.S. military can develop and prepare for alternate futures in the operational environment. These narratives can help communicate complex and abstract ideas in concrete ways and provide Army leaders with explicit examples of problems they may encounter in the future.
Sharing stories and thinking critically about the future not only allows us to prepare for it, but inspires us to be involved in its creation. Science fiction has inspired generations of scientists and explorers, and created ambition to travel to new worlds. It is important to incentivize this innovative spirit, given that progress is not inevitable.
Science fiction and futurist thinking can also help the U.S. military consider ethical implications of technology development. Creating and sharing stories about technology use can help contextualize the impact of research and development on human society.
Competition among great powers is inevitable. It is important to recognize the impact that national prestige plays in predicting the actions of our competitors. For instance, the Space Race was an extraterrestrial extension of the Cold War competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, driven largely by each side’s desire to showcase the exceptionalism of their respective political and economic systems for international acclaim. Narrative is a key component of soft power influence, for both domestic and international audiences.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring our interview with proclaimed Mad Scientists Peter W. Singer and August Cole — co-authors of the sci-fi techno thrillers Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War and Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution — in the second of our special series of podcasts exploring the power of science fiction, the importance of storytelling and narrative, and the significance of imagination.

35. Women Warriors Fighting for the Future with Gayle Tzemach Lemmon May 13, 2021

Show notes

Gayle Tzemach Lemmon is the author of the New York Times bestsellers, The Dressmaker of Khair Khana(2011), Ashley’s War: The Untold Story of a Team of Women Soldiers on the Special Ops Battlefield (2015), and The Daughters of Kobani (2021). Additionally, Ms. Lemmon is the Chief Marketing Officer at Rebellion Defense, and is an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, serving as an expert on their Women and Foreign Policy Program, She also serves in private sector leadership roles in emerging technology and national security firms, Ms. Lemmon is a frequent speaker on national security topics, including at the Aspen Security Forum and TED forums, and has given talks at the U.S. Military Academy, Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the U.S. Naval Academy, and the National Infantry Museum.

In today’s podcast, Ms. Lemmon discusses writing about disruptors, the emergence of female fighters and military leaders, and the future of women on the battlefield. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

In The Daughters of Kobani, Lemmon details the story of an all-female Kurdish Militia that partnered with the United States to fight ISIS in Syria. Their story demonstrates the evolving nature of women in combat, as role-breakers step forward to lead both women and men in conflict.
The successful collaboration between this militia and the U.S. military provides strong justification for the formation of future counterterrorism partnerships. These efforts could include a ground partner force, a light U.S. special operations presence, and U.S. air support. While partnerships with local groups can be challenging, success in Kobani shows significant advantages to such endeavors.
As the United States forms these partnerships, it will be critical for the U.S. military to consider and define U.S. responsibilities post-conflict. Partner allegiance to the United States involves significant risk, and thus the United States should be certain to support partner efforts before, during, and after conflicts.
The Daughters of Kobani demonstrates the advantages for the inclusion and advancement of women in conflict operations. By harnessing all available talent and integrating women across all levels of the military, the United States can significantly advance U.S. national security interests. Importantly, this effort may involve the dismantling of structures that no longer serve U.S. interests and a reshaping of the conceptualization of power.
The establishment and preservation of U.S. values will be essential in order to maintain U.S. leadership internationally. The United States is not competing against other democracies for global influence, and thus will have its policies and behavior criticized on the international stage. Commitment to high democratic standards will be critical in maintaining U.S. soft power.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring our interview with Ronald D. Moore — screenwriter and producer of the re-imagined Battlestar Galactica television series and the For All Mankind streaming series portraying an alternative history of an enduring American/Russian Space Race — in the first of our special series of podcasts exploring the power of science fiction, the importance of storytelling, and the significance of imagination. We’ll be talking to writers, creators, and authors, who have a wealth of knowledge and experience in thinking about the future in unique ways!

34. Own The Heat: DoD Climate Change Action with Mr. Richard Kidd Apr 29, 2021

Show notes

Mr. Richard G. Kidd IV, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Environment & Energy Resilience, provides policy and governance for programs and activities that enable resilience and cyber-secure energy for weapon systems and installations. This includes budgetary, policy, and management oversight of programs related to climate change, compliance with environmental laws, prevention of pollution, management of natural and cultural resources, and cleanup of contaminated sites, as well as energy resilience, risk, and performance. Prior to his current position, Mr. Kidd served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Strategic Integration where he led the strategy development, resource requirements, and overall business transformation processes for the Office within the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment. He was responsible for developing and monitoring performance metrics for the Army’s installation management community as well as leading a strategic effort to examine options for future Army installations.

In today’s podcast, Mr. Kidd addresses threats to the force from climate change, operating conditions in a worsening climate, and how the DoD can be proactive in this existential fight. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our discussion:

Climate change presents an inevitable threat to world peace, economic prosperity, and capital investment. It is likely to impact the U.S. military in three major ways:
- Increased Operational Requirements: Climate change will overwhelm the governing capacity of weak states, increasing conflict and extremism abroad and subsequently increasing foreign threats. Domestically, demand for the Army National Guard, the Corps of Engineers, and civil authorities will increase in responding to and preventing damage from severe weather.
- Increased Vulnerability of Installations: Prevalence and intensity of floods, erosion, drought, fires, wind shear, and sea level rise will grow as a result of climate change, threatening military installations.
- Degradation of Performance: Performance parameters of both people and equipment will be challenged as they are forced to operate in extreme temperatures. Keeping Soldiers alive in an increasingly hostile climate will challenge the U.S. Army.
U.S. adversaries will craft strategic narratives to criticize U.S. action, or inaction, on climate change. China has heralded, and indeed, ‘weaponized’ its own prioritization of climate change policy and technology development, highlighting its actions in contrast to previous U.S. failures to engage in the Paris Accords. Despite this element of competition, the United States should cooperate with China on climate change policy, given the two nations’ significant impact on the environment.
Through a series of executive orders, and specifically via EO14008, the Biden administration has established climate change as a priority, putting the climate crisis at the center of U.S. Foreign Policy and National Security. Policies such as setting a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require the DoD to plan to reduce emissions and build climate awareness into every level of the Joint force. Finding innovative solutions to address legacy weapons systems’ emissions will be an on-going challenge. Creating solutions by leveraging experts and relevant data will be essential to DoD’s success in addressing this challenge.
In order to manage the existential threat posed by climate change, the U.S. Army and DoD must prepare strategies for both adaptation and mitigation. Adapting to climate change will focus on ‘managing the unavoidable’ aspects of climate change, such as building sea walls, developing new land use patterns, and moving vulnerable power lines underground. On the other hand, mitigating climate change will focus on ‘avoiding the unmanageable’ by reducing current greenhouse gas emissions.
Adaptation and mitigation strategies can overlap. The development of cyber-secure micro grids with on-site power generation can protect against a range of threats, whether from adversarial cyber-attacks or extreme weather events, enhancing overall installation resiliency, while reducing carbon emissions.
Short term solutions will focus on increased efficiencies, while long term solutions will dramatically reduce fuel consumption via promising new technologies and innovation. These include: incorporation of winglets on fixed wing aircraft, hybridization of vehicles, on-site solar power generation, super efficient solar cell technologies capable of beaming power from point-to-point, and small modular nuclear reactors — “You can’t be concerned about climate change and be opposed to nuclear power.”
The U.S. military should prioritize ways to ‘own the heat,’ mirroring former initiatives to develop advanced night vision technology. Technology development in this arena will involve creating tactical cooling systems, increasing vehicle performance, developing individual Soldier cooling solutions, and increasing their medical monitoring.
Advanced technology for operating in extreme temperatures could provide the United States with a strategic advantage in conflict. Emphasizing DoD climate awareness and efforts to mitigate military environmental impacts will help the Army recruit the next generation of Soldiers, who are increasingly impacted by climate change and interested in climate solutions. Conversely, "If we as a military are not addressing climate change, if we're not serious about this, we're going to lose appeal to many future Soldiers... They're going to say, 'If the military is not onboard with climate change, I don't want to serve.'"

32. Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the 2nd Nagorno-Karabakh War Apr 01, 2021

Show notes

COL John Antal served 30 years in the Army and has commanded combat units from platoon through regiment and served on division, corps, and multinational staffs. He also served at the National Training Center and has extensive experience in Korea, serving multiple tours on the DMZ. After retiring from the Army, COL Antal was selected by Microsoft Games Studio to help develop an interactive entertainment company in Texas. He then became the Executive Director for Gearbox Software with studios in Texas and Canada. He led teams to develop multiple AAA+ video games and is an innovator in the interactive gaming and learning industry. As an author, COL Antal has published 16 books and hundreds of magazine articles. He has served as Editor of the Armchair General magazine, and appeared on TV and the radio to discuss leadership, historical, and national security issues. He is a freelance correspondent for Euro-based Military Technology (Mönch Publishing Group) and Mittler Report Verlag.

In today’s podcast, COL Antal discusses the implications of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, the psychological effects of drone warfare, and the future of maneuver. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview with him:

U.S. success in future conflicts depends on our ability to analyze the trends found in conflicts today. By examining the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war, the United States can gain valuable insights on the future of warfare, and better respond to threats in future conflicts.

Ten lessons learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are:

Know Yourself, Know your Enemies. The Azeris had reviewed the underlying causes of their previous defeat at hands of the Armenian armed forces, meticulously studied their current capabilities, and adapted/incorporated new ways of warfare, enabling them to decisively win this conflict in 44 days. Better equipment, organization, training, preparation, and leadership are key.
Set the Conditions for Success before you Fight. The Azeris had cultivated strategic relationships with both Turkey and Israel — providing them with access to sophisticated ISR and strike UAS and loitering munitions. They also induced hesitation with Armenia’s sponsor, Russia, causing them to equivocate whether the defense of the Nagorno-Karabakh region fell within the scope of the Armenian-Russian mutual defense agreement.
Strike First. The innovative use of obsolete, remotely piloted air assets to probe and force Armenian air defense radars to “light up” enabled the Azeris to then fix, target, and destroy the Armenian layered air defenses using precision weapons, granting them first mover advantage.
Dominate across all Domains. While the Maritime domain did not factor significantly in this conflict (Nagorno-Karabakh being landlocked), the Azeris dominated all other domains, successfully synchronizing actions across the Air, Land, Cyber, and even the Space domains — with their Turkish-supplied Bayraktar TB2 ISR and strike UAS leveraging Turkish satellites for communications links.
The Battlefield is Becoming Increasingly Transparent. Despite camouflage, Armenian command posts and air defense assets were easily targeted and destroyed. If you are sensed, you are targeted; and if targeted, you are destroyed or rendered inop. Sensors are more important than shooters, enabling shooters to now execute with greater precision than ever before. High definition full motion real-time videos from UAS and loitering munitions not only allowed the Azeris to target and destroy Armenian systems and personnel, but provided intelligence, battle damage assessment, and video content used to win the information war. There is nowhere to hide.
Masking is Essential to Survive in the Future Battlespace. Masking is a full spectrum effort engaging all active and passive measures to make systems and personnel hard to target. Camouflage is no longer enough. We must define, study, and promote the concept of masking as a key element of war — possibly elevating it as a separate principle of war. Our mantra must be “Mask or Die.”
Top Attack is Becoming the Decisive Method of War. Azeris’ UAVs and loitering munitions provided them with a relatively inexpensive substitute for conventional air power. Any state (or non-state actor) with the resources to purchase top attack systems on the global market has the potential to achieve air supremacy.
Long Range Precision Fires will Dominate Future Fights. Azeris use of both dumb and smart artillery fires, in conjunction with UAS and brilliant loitering munitions, enabled them to win decisively in just 44 days. There was no decisive close combat fight. We need to develop our own standoff strike capabilities, while simultaneously denying our adversaries the use of theirs.
Active Protection Systems and Air Defense. Active defense systems are needed to survive in the new battlespace. Armenian ground forces had about seven seconds to react to incoming strikes by UAS and loitering munitions, resulting in devastating crises in their Soldiers’ morale and will to fight. Layered, multi-capable, air defense against top attack munitions, missiles, aircraft, and low-speed and high-speed threats, is vital. We need an “Iron Dome-like” top attack protection capability for our combat, command and control, combat support, and combat service support elements.
Warfare is Accelerated. Roboticization and automation mean battles will be increasingly executed faster than ever before. This trend will turn the existing “kill chain” into a “kill web,” where artificial intelligence (AI) will prioritize and synchronize weapons engaging targets across multiple domains. This synchronization will be AI-led, with humans-in or on-the-loop, then executed with humans-out-of-the-loop at hyperspeed.

The United States should remain prepared to deter or fight and win decisively future conflicts by leveraging its spending power to lead in technology development. While the U.S. Army’s greatest asset remains its people, developing technologies to help Soldiers win should remain a priority.
Technology development has allowed an increased number of actors to engage in warfare through the use of inexpensive drones. In the future, mercenary forces may serve as “drones for hire,” further expanding access to this disruptive technology.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring our interview with the Undersecretary of the Navy, the Honorable James “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary Davis, Senior Fellow, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, discussing how to think radically about the future, capitalize on talent, and unleash technological convergences to out-compete our adversaries, and when necessary, defeat them decisively in conflict, on 15 April 2021.

31. The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives with Cathy Hackl Mar 18, 2021

Show notes

Cathy Hackl is a leading tech futurist and globally recognized business leader specializing in AR, VR, and spatial computing. Ms. Hackl hosts the Future Insiders podcast and has been designated as one of LinkedIn’s Top Tech Voices. She founded and leads the Futures Intelligence Group, a futures research and consulting firm that works with clients in tech, fashion, media, government, and defense implementing innovation strategies, strategic foresight, and emerging technologies. BigThink named Cathy “one of the top 10 most influential women in tech in 2020” and she has been called the CEO’s business guide to the metaverse. She was included in the 2021 prestigious Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.

In today’s podcast, Ms. Hackl discusses forecasting, the metaverse, and women in tech. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview with her:

The world is approaching a pivotal moment for VR/AR/MR. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated adoption of these technologies, as they allow for an elevated sense of presence in a distanced physical world.
AR/VR technologies have extremely diverse applications, from filters on social media to the treatment of PTSD and Alzheimer’s disease. Novel applications for these technologies are in constant development, particularly as wearables like “smart glasses” proliferate in the commercial sphere.
Although AR/VR are frequently associated with altered visuals, other senses are increasingly incorporated into these platforms. Currently in development is AR that would allow users to focus on a single conversation amidst significant background noise.
As the metaverse, a digital copy of the world available in real time, is developed, the way we engage with the physical world will change. Information available to VR/AR users in various “layers” could be manipulated or controlled by actors capable of altering the available data.
In order to recruit future generations to technology development, it will be essential to “meet them where they are.” By identifying online platforms, interests, and values of youth, recruiters will be able to present opportunities to create meaningful change in an attractive manner.
The federal government’s focus on artificial intelligence has de-prioritized AR/VR. However, AR/VR are innately American technologies, and increased focus on their development could allow the United States to maintain its current advantage in the field.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring an interview with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) discussing the implications for future conflict from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, the psychological effects of drone warfare, and the future of maneuver, on 1 April 2021.

30. The Future of Ground Warfare with COL Scott Shaw Mar 04, 2021

Show notes

COL Scott Shaw commands the Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG), whose mission is to provide global operational advisory support to U.S. Army forces to rapidly transfer current threat based observations and solutions to tactical and operational commanders in order to defeat emerging asymmetric threats and enhance multi-domain effectiveness.

In today’s podcast, COL Shaw discusses the future of ground warfare and the realities of combat for tomorrow’s Soldiers. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview with him:

AWG was developed to promote U.S. Army understanding of asymmetric threats. Today, this effort is focused in three research areas: the operations and information environment, electronic warfare, and countering unmanned systems.
The United States needs to balance focus, spending, and training among threats from China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Strategists need to remember that “the enemy gets a vote,” and thus efforts will need to remain adaptable.
While the United States excels at fighting at a Brigade Combat Team-level, future success will stem from excellence in space and cyber operations, electronic warfare, air defense, information operations, and lean logistical planning. These areas are challenging and will require extensive organization and advanced exercise design.
The use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) for reconnaissance and targeting will increase. As these systems proliferate, they will lower the ‘entry fee’ into combined arms operations, granting even non-state actors a localized air force and creating a general environment of fear.
Development of sensing technologies has made it increasingly challenging to hide. When combined with developments in artificial intelligence (AI) that will increase the tempo of warfare, it is likely that survivability moves will be required near-constantly.
Information operations, including the use of misleading videos and ubiquitous attack surfaces, will create a chaotic operational environment. Leaders will be required to quickly discern the truth in order to make decisions, while simultaneously attempting to interfere with the decision cycles of adversaries.
U.S. Soldiers and Leaders are the United States’ greatest asymmetric advantage. In the future, training will need to be adapted to ensure forces are comfortable operating dispersed and with less constant communication.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of “The Convergence,” featuring an interview with Cathy Hackl — Futurist and Founder of Futures Intelligence Group, one of LinkedIn’s Top Tech Voices, and the host of the Future Insiders podcast — discussing forecasting, the future of augmented and virtual reality, and women in tech on 18 March 2021!

29. The Policy and Law of Lethal Autonomy with Michael Meier and Shawn Steene Feb 18, 2021

Show notes

Michael Meier is the Special Assistant to the Judge Advocate General (JAG) for Law of War Matters at Headquarters, Department of the Army. As such, Mr. Meier serves as the law of war subject matter expert for the U.S. Army JAG Corps, advising on policy issues involving the law of war. Mr. Meier also reviews all proposed new U.S. Army weapons and weapons systems to ensure they are consistent with U.S. international law obligations. Additionally, he is an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University Law Center, instructing courses on the Law of Armed Conflict. Mr. Meier is a retired JAG officer, having served in the U.S. Army for 23 years.

Shawn Steene is the Senior Force Developer for Emerging Technologies, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, where his portfolio includes Emerging Technologies and S&T, including Autonomous Weapon Systems policy and Directed Energy Weapons policy. Prior to joining OSD Strategy & Force Development, Mr. Steene worked in OSD Space Policy, where his portfolio included Space Support (launch, satellite control, orbital debris mitigation, and rendezvous and proximity operations), as well as strategic stability and all space-related issuances (Directives, Instructions, DTMs, etc.). He is a proclaimed Mad Scientist, having presented and served as a discussion panelist in our Frameworks (Ethics & Policy) for Autonomy on the Future Battlefield, the final webinar in our Mad Scientist Robotics and Autonomy series of virtual events.

In today’s podcast, Messrs. Meier and Steene discuss the ground truth on regulations and directives regarding lethal autonomy and what the future of autonomy might mean in a complex threat environment. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview with them:

Current law and policy do not specifically prohibit or restrict the use of autonomous weapons. However, these systems will need to operate within the law of armed conflict and Department of Defense (DoD) directives. These restrictions entail that autonomous systems will need to be capable of distinguishing between appropriate targets and non-combatants, maintain proportionality in attacks, and undertake feasible precautions to reduce risk to civilians and protected objects.

Ultimately, operators and human supervisors will be held responsible under laws of conflict and U.S. policy. Thus, appropriate safeguards will need to be adopted to ensure appropriate human oversight of autonomous systems. DoD directives establish guidelines for this supervision and facilitate case by case reviews of systems with autonomous capabilities.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy are not interchangeable. While some autonomous systems use AI, this is not always the case.

The United States is concerned with and making efforts to address the ethical components of autonomous systems. DoD directives and AI principles are examples of ethics in action and facilitate an acceptable code of conduct for lethal autonomous weapons.

Importantly, DoD directives on autonomous systems are not threat informed in an effort to avoid a “race to the bottom.” This feature allows definitions, such as “appropriate level of human judgement,” to change with technology development without sacrificing core ethical principles.

Initially, lethal autonomous systems will need to perform far above the “better than human” standard. Over time, as trust in these platforms increases, this standard may be re-evaluated. The introduction of younger generations, who may be more likely to trust advanced AI-enabled machinery, is likely to affect the trust and use of autonomous weapons.

Human machine teaming is a priority in weapons development, indicating that semi-autonomous systems are currently preferred compared to fully autonomous weapons. Development of semi-autonomous platforms may pave the way for increased trust in fully autonomous platforms.

“Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of "The Convergence," featuring COL Scott Shaw, Commander, U.S. Army Asymmetric Warfare Group, discussing the future of ground warfare, including lessons learned from the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in 2020 and the realities of combat for tomorrow's Soldiers, on 4 March 2021!”

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