The Convergence - The Army's Mad Scientist Podcast

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60. Ukraine: All Roads Lead to Urban with Maj. (Ret.) John Spencer Jul 07, 2022

Show notes

MAJ John Spencer (USA-Ret.) is the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies with the Madison Policy Forum. He served over twenty-five years in the U.S. Army as an infantry Soldier, with two combat tours in Iraq as both an Infantry Platoon Leader and Company Commander. He has also served as a Ranger Instructor with the Army’s Ranger School, a Joint Chief of Staff and Army Staff intern, fellow with the Chief of Staff of the Army’s Strategic Studies Group, and Strategic Planner and Deputy Director of the Modern War Institute, where he was instrumental in the design and formation of the institute.

In today’s interview, MAJ Spencer returns to discuss what we’ve learned about LSCO, urban conflict, and the changing character of warfare from the last four plus months of Russia’s “special military operation” in eastern Ukraine. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

Modern technology forces our societies, and those of our adversaries, to be more connected to the battlefield. As the Ukrainian “Tik-Tok” war demonstrates, such connectedness can allow actors outside of the war to leverage open-source intelligence to influence the conflict by providing either side with logistical support and operational advice.

It is important to study wars firsthand to understand how they are evolving to the modern context; the U.S. military used to employ appointed observers for this mission. Given that the battle for Kyiv is a truly urban fight, there is much the Army can learn from the conflict.

The battle for Kyiv demonstrates that, especially in an urban environment, terrain still matters. Ukrainians flooded rivers and destroyed bridges to canalize Russian invaders into chokepoints and kill zones, demonstrating an understanding of their environment unthinkable to non-natives.

The Russian invasion also demonstrates the importance of civilian involvement in urban conflict, as volunteers collaborated to establish defenses in depth, targeting and ambushing their attackers. Here, too, technology played an important role. Images and messages from the Ukrainian government and their fellow citizens helped strengthen citizens’ resolve to defend their country.

Today, Soldiers and their families are more connected by technology than ever, allowing them to live with a foot in each world. This feature of modern warfare is important as it prevents Soldiers from feeling isolated, but also gives civilian families a clearer understanding of the realities of warfare.

What are we missing? The Army is not learning the lessons of modern war. Future conflict will happen in urban areas. The Army still doesn’t have a major school for urban warfare; and it still doesn’t have a unit focused on fighting in the urban environment. We now have the 11th Arctic Division — where is our Urban Division?

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence — How Russia Fights, Part 2 — to be published in a fortnight on 21 July 2022. To whet your appetite, read the highlights from Part 1 and listen to the associated podcast.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out our previous post and podcast with MAJ Spencer — War in Ukraine: The Urban Fight is Happening Now and the associated podcast

… as well as the following related content:

TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Waterworld: How Ukraine Flooded Three Rivers to Help Save Kyiv, by John Spencer and Liam Collins, published by our colleagues at Modern War Institute

Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat, and associated podcast

Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

Dense Urban Hackathon – Virtual Innovation

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1) and Democratized Intelligence, by Kate Kilgore

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Dr. Brent L. Sterling

Russia Landing Zonecontent on the Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page

How will the RUS-UKR Conflict Impact Russia’s Military Modernization?by Dr. Jacob Barton

The Bear is Still There: Four Insights on Competition with Russia

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

59. Outsiders Solving Wicked Problems with Shubhi Mishra Jun 23, 2022

Show notes

While Shubhi Mishra, founder and CEO of Raft, is a lawyer and data scientist by training, she’s better known as an intentional government technology (GovTech) disruptor at heart. She loves solving complex problems, even the kind that give you a headache while you’re working through them. But that process of discovery, of realization, and coming to a solution makes it all worthwhile. Her passion is working with bleeding-edge technology focused on the defense sector. Raft provides an innovation space for people who are similarly mission-focused, tackling vexing challenges with passion and enthusiasm. Ms. Mishra seeks to inspire other women in and out of the GovTech space and excite them enough to join the movement of providing better solutions and services to the defense industry through sustainable, emerging technology.

In today’s interview, Ms. Mishra discusses wicked problems in national security; finding creative, mission-focused solutions; and equipping the DoD with sustainable, emerging technology. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

Raft’s strategy seeks to build a data fabric, or mesh, on top of data lakes, to reduce silos and increase communication among data resources. This enables faster decision making, which ultimately benefits our warfighters.

When delivering a data product, it is important to maintain a human-centered design which considers for whom you are building the product. It is critical to experiment with the project and obtain user feedback.

When working with historical datasets, one must consider: [1] If the full data is present. Can other datasets be integrated to get a better picture?[2] How will we measure the success of the algorithm we are using the data to build? Will we obtain a new result, or are we simply pattern matching? [3] Who can we get comments from to ensure we have a beneficial feedback loop?

Warfare data presents unique challenges, as [thankfully] there is not high repetition. However, you do not necessarily need high volumes of data to get useful information. Being cautious about what outcome is being measured, using algorithms to pattern match, and enabling different values to be introduced for fair and non-biasedoutcomes can produce beneficial and informative results.

The Department of Defense (DoD), working with external partners, helps illuminate fresh perspectives and challenge assumptions, as well as pullnew talent. There is an appetite among private sector companies to work with the DoD, but many times companies are not aware of such opportunities.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, to be published in a fortnight on 7 July 2022.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Algorithms of Armageddon and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist CAPT (Ret.) George Galdorisi

Going on the Offensive in the Fight for the Future and associated podcast with former Undersecretary of the Navy (and proclaimed Mad Scientist) James F. “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary S. Davis, and Strategic Latency Unleashed!

Achieving an AI-era Workforce by 2025: A Modern, Scalable Approach to Retooling the United States (and its Army!)by Ted Hallum

The Language of AI and associated podcast with Michael Kanaan

AI Across the Enterpriseand associated podcast, with Rob Albritton

Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

Setting the Army for the Future (Parts II and III)

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield

“Own the Night”and the associated Modern War Institute podcast with proclaimed Mad Scientist Mr. Bob Work

58. The Light on the Hill: America and Non-Terrestrial War Jun 09, 2022

Show notes

COL Stefan Banach(USA-Ret.) is a Distinguished Member of the 75th Ranger Regiment and served in that organization for nine years, culminating with command of the 3rd Ranger Battalion from 2001-2003. He led U.S. Army Rangers during a historic night combat parachute assault into Afghanistan on October 19, 2001, as the “spearhead” for the Global War on Terror. Steve subsequently led U.S. Army Rangers in a second combat parachute assault into Al Anbar Province in western Iraq in 2003. He served with distinction in the U.S. Army from 1983 to 2010. Since then, he has provided executive consulting services to a diverse range of clients at a number of prestigious institutions. Steve Banach also serves as the Director, Army Management Staff College, an element of Army University responsible for “igniting the leadership potential for every Army civilian.”
In today’s interview with COL Banach, we explore non-terrestrial war, weapons of mass deception, and why we are at a pivotal point in the defense of our country. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

The United States is experiencing a new form of conflict known as “non-terrestrial warfare.” Our adversaries no longer seek to confront us on the traditional battlefield. Instead, they will use non-tangible capabilities in cyber, big data, space, and the information space to influence entire societies and create tangible results, the effects of which may remain invisible for weeks, months, or even years. It is an unbounded, global, strategic form of maneuver, performed by nation and non- state actors that is an enduring, new approach to warfare.

Non-terrestrial warfare encompasses strategies like mis-and disinformation — weapons of mass deception — where social media has emerged as a tool that can influence the behavior of entire populations. Data collected on human behavior while operating in this space creates new opportunities for actors to understand, exploit, and manipulate collective behaviors. This is a pre-meditated and well-orchestrated campaign that we are seeing implemented in algorithmic warfare today, dividing populations and creating dis-equilibrium and systemic shock in our society — it is a brilliant, elegant, strategic form of maneuver that is being levied against us. It is not by accident, and it is pervasive and growing!
As witnessed in the on-going conflict in Ukraine, the role of non-state actors is increasingly important.Elon Muskmaneuvered Spacexsatellites and provided Starlink ground stations to the Ukrainian government to ensure continued satellite internet communications in the face of Russian cyberattacks. Hackers targeted Russian communications infrastructure, while Ukrainian citizens engaged in hybrid warfare in the defense of their homeland. In non-terrestrial war, the lines between civilians and combatants will continue to blur, with “hacktivists” and influential individuals exerting power to damage state infrastructure and alter the behaviors of entire populations.
The U.S. Department of Defense should not wait for a catalyst event to begin adapting to this new style of warfare. Non-terrestrial war is a complex, adaptive challenge that requires our leadership to mobilize adaptive work acumen across the enterprise. It requires a whole-of-nation, whole-of-coalition response — a Manhattan Project 2.0. We should focus on bringing together subject matter experts to redesign and create a new learning ecosystem to conceptualize this reality, craft an enduring global non-terrestrial maneuver strategy, acquire a new synthesized and weaponized “Technology Palette,” and prepare to engage in and win this fight!

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence — featuring Shubhi Mishra, founder and CEO of Raft, a data-intensive digital consultancy, discussing wicked problems in national security; finding creative, mission-focused solutions; and equipping the DoD with sustainable, emerging technology.

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out its companion essay The “Convergence” and Non-Terrestrial War, as well as the following previous posts and podcasts by COL Banach:

Global Entanglement and Multi-Reality Warfare, and associated podcast

Virtual War – A Revolution in Human Affairs (Parts I and II)

… and the following related content:

Sub-threshold Maneuver and the Flanking of U.S. National Security and Is Ours a Nation at War? U.S. National Security in an Evolved — and Evolving — Operational Environment, by Dr. Russell Glenn

Hybrid Threats and Liminal Warfare with Dr. David Kilcullen, and associated podcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage, by Ian Sullivan

The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Raechel Melling

A House Divided: Microtargeting and the next Great American Threat, by 1LT Carlin Keally

The Erosion of National Will – Implications for the Future Strategist, by Dr. Nick Marsella

Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far… and Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events

57. The Most Consequential Adversaries with GEN Charles A. Flynn May 19, 2022

Show notes

Gen. Flynn is a native of Middletown, Rhode Island and Distinguished Military Graduate from the University of Rhode Island with a BS in Business Management. General Flynn is a graduate of the Infantry Officer Basic and Advanced Courses at Fort Benning, GA. He holds two master’s degrees, one in National Security and Strategic Studies from the United States Naval War College in Newport, RI, and one in Joint Campaign Planning and Strategy from the National Defense University.

In today’s interview, Gen. Flynn discusses the unique pacing threat posed by China, building interoperability with partner nations, and the future of multi-domain operations in INDOPACOM. The following bullet points highlight some of the key insights from our interview:

- While it is often argued that future conflicts in the Pacific will be fought in the air and at sea, the U.S. Army remains critical in securing our regional interests. The Army continues to build relationships with partners on land, and will likely be the only Service not hindered by China’s Anti-Access /Area Denial (A2/AD) system, which is not designed to find, fix, and destroy land forces. As a result, land power will serve as a counterweight to Chinese aspirations both regionally and globally.

- The Army’s Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center (JPMRC) integrates live, virtual, and constructive environments, enabling our forces and partners to conduct training via a mobile, regional training center in the Pacific’s Arctic, Jungle, and Archipelago conditions and environments. JPMRC enables the Army to maintain a constant presence in the region, train, and build readiness with our allies and partners.

- While training with technology in the region of operation is important, relationships matter. Building strong relationships between individuals, organizations, and countries is vital for deterrence by denial. We rely on our allies and partners for their understanding of the geography and the human terrain — the cultures, the societies, and the peoples of the region.

- There are three types of interoperability: human, technical, and procedural. There are also three dimensions: human, physical, and information. The crossover or intersection between interoperability and dimensions is the human. By focusing on the human dimension and investing in and building human interoperability with our allies and partners, other vital components of interoperability will follow.

- There are four principles for successful network integration. First, it will require an open architecture so Joint forces and mission partners may easily plug into it. Second, there must be a better way to both grant and evaluate the risk of granting authority to operate within these frameworks. Next, the Army needs to be more data-centric. Finally, our forces need to become transport agnostic for our data.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratoryfor our next episode of The Convergence podcast featuring COL Stefan Banach (USA-Ret.), Director, Army Management Staff College, returning to discuss non-terrestrial warfare, weapons of mass deception, and the future information environment.

If you enjoyed this post, learn more about China as our Pacing Threat at the TRADOC G-2’s China Landing Zone

… check out the wealth of regional training information on the TRADOC G-2’s DATE World Pacific page

… explore future conflict possibilities in this region:

“No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

The U.S. Joint Force’s Defeat before Conflict, by CPT Anjanay Kumar

Guns of August 2035 – “Ferdinand Visits the Kashmir”: A Future Strategic and Operational Environment by Team RSM3 from the Army Futures Study Group Cohort VI

Shén fēng: Military Use of Weather Modification Technology, by Rory Fedorochko

… and review the following additional Operational Environment content:

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, along with its source document

How China Fights and associated podcast

China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton

The Hermit Kingdom in the Digital Era: Implications of the North Korean Problem for the SOF Community, by Colonel Montgomery Erfourth and Dr. Aaron Bazin

Competition and Conflict in the Next Decade

Disrupting the “Chinese Dream” – Eight Insights on how to win the Competition with China

Competition in 2035: Anticipating Chinese Exploitation of Operational Environments

56. The Secret Sauce of America's Army with GEN Paul E. Funk II May 05, 2022

Show notes

Gen. Paul E. Funk II, CG, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command. (U.S. Army photo)

General Paul E. Funk II assumed duties as the 17th Commanding General, United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), on June 21, 2019. As TRADOC commander, Gen. Funk is responsible for 32 Army schools organized under 10 Centers of Excellence that recruit, train, and educate more than 750,000 Soldiers and service members annually. Gen. Funk was born at Fort Hood and graduated from Fort Knox High School. He was commissioned an Armor Officer through ROTC upon graduation from Montana State University. Gen. Funk has commanded at every level, Company through Corps; his combat and operational experience includes six deployments in support of Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Enduring Freedom, and Operation Inherent Resolve. Gen. Funk holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in speech communications, from Montana State University, and a Master of Science degree in administration, from Central Michigan University. He is a graduate of the Armor Basic Officer Leaders and Advanced Courses, the Command and General Staff College, and completed his Senior Service College as a fellow at the Institute of Advanced Technology, University of Texas at Austin.

In today’s interview, Gen. Funk addresses how the Army is modernizing doctrine given the Operational Environment, what are the challenges facing our all-volunteer force, what the Army can observe and learn from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and how it is adapting to the changing character of warfare. The following bullet points highlight some of the key insights from our interview:

The all-volunteer force is at risk.Demographic trends show that the population of individuals qualified for recruitment is diminishing. Finding the “Secret Sauce” that motivates people to serve and stay in the Army will be vital to ensuring the Nation’s Senior Service remains an effective and capable force.
Professionalizing the U.S. military gave the United States a quarter century of global dominance. At its core, it prioritized the Soldier – a mission that should still be emphasized today. Though the character of war is changing, it remains, in essence, a human endeavor. Today, prioritizing the Soldier must be done holistically – nutrition, sleep, and education will all contribute to mission success.
Education is the best tool to prepare our Soldiers, and should be prioritized at every echelon.Strong doctrine can help form successful training programs and modernize the Soldier to out-think our adversary. Such education should also teach ‘disciplined disobedience,’ enabling Soldier-Innovators to adapt creatively to ensure mission success.
Soldiers and their families will continue to be targets of disinformation.As a result, it is essential to promote trust in the chain of command, and to ensure military families have a safe, secure, and accurate flow of information.
The adage that “it requires 10,000 hours” to master a task reigns true in military training.Synthetic training environments can facilitate necessary practice on critical tasks, but should not entirely replace live training exercises.
Sensor saturation, in which every service member and civilian can both track the data of others and be tracked themselves, has made it impossible to hidein today’s Operational Environment. The ability to operate in a reduced-technology environment may be required in future conflict.
There are four audiences of information in every conflict: the leadership of one’s own country, the Soldiers and families of our military, our allies and partners, and our adversaries.Successfully navigating the distribution of information to these groups will remain paramount to mission success.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratoryfor our next episode of The Convergence podcast featuring General Charles E. Flynn, Commanding General, U.S. Army Pacific (USARPAC), discussing the unique pacing threat posed of China, building interoperability with partner nations, and the future of multi-domain operations in INDOPACOM.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

Recruiting the All-Volunteer Force of the Future and The Inexorable Role of Demographics, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth; and U.S. Demographics, 2020-2028: Serving Generations and Service Propensity

The Future of Talent and Soldiers with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma and associated podcast; New Skills Required to Compete & Win in the Future Operational Environment; and The Trouble with Talent: Why We’re Struggling to Recruit and Retain Our Workforce, by Sarah L. Sladek

Innovation at the Edge and associated podcast; Strategic Latency Unleashed!, Going on the Offensive in the Fight for the Future, and associated podcast with former Undersecretary of the Navy (and proclaimed Mad Scientist) James F. “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary S. Davis; and Tactical Innovation: The Missing Piece to Enable Army Futures Command, by LTC Jim Armstrong

Disinformation Threats to the All-Volunteer Force and associated podcast, with MAJ Joe Littell and CPT Maggie Smith; Maximizing the Army Team’s Potential!; China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage by Ian Sullivan; The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology by proclaimed Mad Scientist Raechel Melling; A House Divided: Microtargeting and the next Great American Threat by 1LT Carlin Keally; and The Erosion of National Will – Implications for the Future Strategist by Dr. Nick Marsella

From Legos to Modular Simulation Architectures: Enabling the Power of Future (War) Play, by Jennifer McArdle and Caitlin Dohrman; A New American Way of Training, and associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle; and The Synthetic Training Environment, presented by then Maj. Gen. Maria R. Gervais, Director, STE Cross Functional Team (CFT) / now LTG and Deputy Commanding General/Chief of Staff, TRADOC, from the Mad Scientist Installations of the Future Conference, and her associated slide deck

Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare, by Dr. Richard Nabors; Nowhere to Hide: Information Exploitation and Sanitization; and War Laid Bare, by Matthew Ader

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC)

55. Going Boldly: Military Thinking with Science Fiction Apr 21, 2022

Show notes

To Boldy Go, edited by COL Jonathan Klug and Steven Leonard, and published by Casemate Publishers in 2021, is subtitled “Leadership, Strategy, and Conflict in the 21st Century and Beyond.” Army Mad Scientist’s The Convergence podcasters Luke Shabro and Matthew Santaspirt explore how science fiction can inform the Army about the Operational Environment and the changing character of warfare with the books co-editors and contributors:
COL Jonathan Klugis a U.S. Army Strategist serving as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Strategy, Planning, and Operations at the U.S. Army War College. Commissioned as an Armor officer, he served in Haiti, Bosnia, South Korea, Egypt, and Iraq. His strategy assignments included writing U.S. Army, U.S. Joint, and NATO Joint counter-insurgency doctrine; teaching at the U.S. Air Force Academy and the U.S. Naval Academy; serving as V Corps Deputy Plans and Strategy Officer; and strategic planning in the NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan, International Security Assistance Force Joint Command, and Operation Resolute Support Headquarters. He holds degrees from the U.S. Military Academy, Louisiana State University, and the U.S. Army School of Advanced Military Studies. He is a PhD candidate in Military and Naval History at the University of New Brunswick. COL Klug co-edited To Boldly Go and co-authored “Yours is the Superior” with Steven Leonard (below), and contributed “You Rebel Scum!” and “To Live and Die at My Command.”
Steven Leonard is an award-winning faculty member at the University of Kansas, where he chairs graduate programs in Organizational Leadership and Supply Chain Management. As a former military strategist and the creative force behind the defense microblog Doctrine Man, he is a career writer and speaker with a passion for developing and mentoring the next generation of thought leaders. He is a senior fellow at the Modern War Institute at West Point; the co-founder of the national security blog Divergent Options; co-founder and board member of the Military Writers Guild; and a member of the editorial review board of the Arthur D. Simons Center‘s Interagency Journal. He is the author, co-author, or editor of five books, numerous professional articles, countless blog posts, and is a prolific military cartoonist. Mr. Leonard co-edited To Boldly Go and co-authored “Yours is the Superior” with COL Klug (above), and contributed “Beware the Beast Man” and “The Mirror Crack’d.”
Dr. Kathleen McInnishas worked in the Pentagon, the UK Parliament, and in think tanks on both sides of the Atlantic. Having earned her PhD in War Studies at King’s College London, she currently analyzes International security and defense issues for the U.S. Congress at the Congressional Research Service. The author of over fifty publications on international security matters, she has commented on international affairs on outlets including CNN, Sky News, BBC, Al Jazeera English, and the Voice of America. She is also the author of two books. Dr. McInnis contributed “Sun-Tzu, Ender, and the Old Man.”
Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan is a retired Australian Army officer. A combat engineer, he has commanded tactical units at the troop, squadron, regiment, task force, and brigade levels. He is a veteran of East Timor, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and served on the Pakistan-Afghanistan Coordination Cell in the U.S. Joint Staff. A distinguished graduate of Johns Hopkins University and the U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) Staff College, and graduate of the USMC School of Advanced Warfare, he is an enthusiastic writer, reader, and a passionate advocate of professional education and lifelong learning. Maj. Gen. Ryan contributed both the Foreword and “From Tactics to Galactic Grand Strategy.”

In today’s interview, COL Jonathan Klug, Steve Leonard, Dr. Kathleen McInnis, and Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan discuss the lessons captured in To Boldly Go; leadership, strategy, and conflict; the importance of storytelling; and the value of science fiction. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

Science fiction can help military strategists creatively conceptualize the Operational Environment. To Boldly Gocompiles contributions from over 30 national security experts (a number of whom are proclaimed Army Mad Scientists!) exploring how science fiction can be used to illustrate real-world security challenges.
Science fiction can be used to develop creative Leaders in the national security arena by forcing them to consider alternate futures and the ethics of new technology.Science fiction also exposes how no strategy exists in isolation. Strategists are constantly bound by multiple strategic goals, limited resources, and conflicting opinions.
Examining Orson Scott Card‘s Ender’s Gamecan help the U.S. Army understand the importance of ‘strategic empathy,’ where strategists seek to understand the thoughts, emotions, and ideas of an adversary. This skillset is critical in enabling Leaders to get inside of an adversary’s OODA loop and help shape the battlefield, yet it is often not actively cultivated. Paying better attention to the motivations of others can help policymakers and commanders comprehend the motivations, priorities, and objectives of our competitors.
Stories like Dune, Star Wars, and The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxylet readers understand the challenges of sustainment, intelligence gathering, and realistic absurdities in an entertaining and imaginative way. Reading or watching these works exercises a unique portion of consumers’ brains, enabling them to be more active and creative thinkers.
The United States will not always be able to spend its way through problems; instead, it will be forced to think creatively.Both reading and writing science fiction stories will help strategists build a creative skillset and leverage existing tools to think of new ways to examine current problems.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratoryfor our next episode of The Convergence podcast featuring General Paul E. Funk II, Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), discussing how the Army is modernizing doctrine given the Operational Environment, what are the challenges facing our all-volunteer force, what the Army can observe and learn from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and how it is adapting to the changing character of warfare.

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out the following related content addressing the importance of narrative and science fiction in helping the Army to contextualize the future:

Moonshot: A Sci-Fi Adventure with Ronald D. Moore and associated podcast

Realer than Real: Useful Fiction with P.W. Singer and August Cole and associated podcast

Worldbuilding with Malka Olderand associated podcast

Alternate Futures 2050: A Collection of Fictional Wartime Vignettes, by LTC Steve Speece

Shén fēng: Military Use of Weather Modification Technology, by Rory Fedorochko

Takeaways from the Mad Scientist Science Fiction Writing Contest 2019

53. Innovation at the Edge Mar 24, 2022

Show notes

In today’s interview, Senior Leaders and Soldiers discuss how the Army is successfully harnessing its disruptive thinkers to cultivate innovation at the tactical level. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

The 3rd Infantry Division’s The Marne Think Tank, the 101st Airborne Division’s EAGLEWERX, and the 18^th Airborne Corps’ Dragon’s Lair are leading the U.S. Army’s efforts to crowd-source innovative ideas from every echelon of the force. While innovation tends to focus on technology, these organizations also invite creative ideas on policy, process, and quality of life.

These organizations provide opportunities for Soldiers to pitch their ideas to senior leaders, then collaborate with their peers to refine their ideas and create actionable solutions. Soldiers themselves lead their projects, developing leadership, creativity, and problem-solving skills.

Innovation requires both time and resources — the Army must dedicate specific time to innovation, particularly outside of focused technology development efforts. This tactical-level innovation, harnessing insights from Soldiers on better ways to perform missions and duties, is often overlooked. Ideas can range from the adoption of preparedness measures for assault survivors to new methods of range scheduling, team cohesion building, and rucksack transportation.

Prerequisites for innovation include a welcoming environment and platform rather than extensive incentive structure. Soldiers already want to improve the Army – providing a positive space for them to proactively engage and collaborate on problems allows disruptive seekers to find each other and excel at innovation.

The Army can cultivate its tactical innovators by fostering partnerships with academia and industry. By building a network ecosystem of interested parties, Soldiers are empowered to leverage existing technologies and processes in new ways to help solve Army problems now.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratoryfor our next episode of The Convergence podcast — Crossing the Valley of Death for Innovation — featuring Trish Martinelli and David Schiff, both At-Large Regional Directors with the National Security Innovation Network, discussing innovation, the value of hackathons and crowd-sourcing in harnessing the Nation’s intellect to benefit National Security, and integrating their programs in support of U.S. Army innovation.

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out the following related content addressing Innovation:

Keeping the Razor’s Edge: 4th PSYOP Group’s Innovation and Evolution Council, by the 4th Psychological Operations Group (4th POG) Innovation and Evolution Council

Strategic Latency Unleashed!, Going on the Offensive in the Fight for the Future, and associated podcast with former Undersecretary of the Navy (and proclaimed Mad Scientist) James F. “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary S. Davis

Tactical Innovation: The Missing Piece to Enable Army Futures Command, by LTC Jim Armstrong

The Convergence: The Future of Ground Warfare with COL Scott Shawand associated podcast

The Convergence: Innovating Innovation with Molly Cain and associated podcast

Dense Urban Hackathon – Virtual Innovation

“Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel and Making the Future More Personal: The Oft-Forgotten Human Driver in Future’s Analysis, by Ian Sullivan

Mission Engineering and Prototype Warfare: Operationalizing Technology Faster to Stay Ahead of the Threat by The Strategic Cohort at the U.S. Army Tank Automotive Research, Development, and Engineering Center (TARDEC).

Four Elements for Future Innovationby Dr. Richard Nabors

The Changing Dynamics of Innovation

Innovation Isn’t Enough: How Creativity Enables Disruptive Strategic Thinking, by Heather Venable

52. War in Ukraine: The Urban Fight is Happening Now with Maj. (Ret.) John Spencer Mar 10, 2022

Show notes

MAJ John Spencer (USA-Ret.) is the Chair of Urban Warfare Studies with the Madison Policy Forum. He served over twenty-five years in the U.S. Army as an infantry Soldier, with two combat tours in Iraq as both an Infantry Platoon Leader and Company Commander. He has also served as a Ranger Instructor with the Army’s Ranger School, a Joint Chief of Staff and Army Staff intern, fellow with the Chief of Staff of the Army’s Strategic Studies Group, and Strategic Planner and Deputy Director of the Modern War Institutewhere he was instrumental in the design and formation of the institute.

In today’s interview, MAJ John Spencer (USA-ret.) discusses the on-going war in Ukraine, urban warfare strategies employed by both Russian and Ukrainian military forces, the changing character of warfare, and what this portends for the future of conflict. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

Both with respect to the current Russia/Ukraine conflict and with modern conflict in general, urban warfare strategies are critical.This is true whether the objective requires getting past urban terrain or involves an objective that is urban in nature.

Despite Russia’s initial plans falling in line with traditional invasions, characterized by a large mass of forces that are then rapidly deployed in a “shock and awe” campaign, Ukraine’s combined arms approach to defense has prevented Russia from quickly gaining control of critical areas.
Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs) and Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) have been very effective in this conflict due to Russia trading combined arms operations for speed. Russia’s rush to seize ground objectives in convoy without effectively utilizing their air superiority has led to many of their ground assets being destroyed.

It is tough to find a recent battle where an urban area was not the strategic or decisive objective.As Antony Beevor once stated, “The age of combined arms maneuver on the open plain is over.” The conflict in Ukraine is challenging the idea that urban fighting can be bypassed.
The Russia/Ukraine conflict is sending a clear reminder to the U.S. and allied forces that many of the lessons we’ve learned in the past— using combined arms in urban warfare, the dangers of emitting large Electronic Warfare (EW) signatures, and the importance of Command and Control — are all still relevant on the battlefield today.

Information from around the world can be received in the combat zone and directly influence on-going kinetic operations.When Mr. Spencer observed the call for Ukrainian civilians to be added to the military force structure, he wrote a series of tweets on the most basic things civilian auxiliary forces could do to help in defending their nation (i.e., installing barricades at choke points along probable axes of advance to deter/halt Russian forces). He received videos proving that Ukrainian civilians had put his advice to good use, demonstrating that the information age is changing the character of war.

Ukraine is capable of winning in urban warfare, because they do not have to actually defeat the enemy’s military power. In this situation, not losing is winning.Every day the Ukrainians maintain control of key urban areas, Russia cannot achieve its strategic objectives. Every day that passes, Russia’s political will continues to be sapped. All war is politics. Ukraine must only hold long enough for the political situation to change in their favor.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratoryfor our next episode of The Convergence podcast — Innovation at the Edge — featuring senior military leaders, field and company grade officers, and young Soldiers discussing innovation at the unit and individual level, thinking differently about modern warfare, and implementing grassroots transformation in the U.S. Army.

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out the following related content:

TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92-1, The Changing Character of Warfare: The Urban Operational Environment

A Chinese Perspective on Future Urban Unmanned Operations

Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

Dense Urban Hackathon – Virtual Innovation

Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat, and associated podcast

Then and Now: Using the Past to Secure the Future, and associated podcast

Content from the Current and Future Operations in Megacities Conference, 16-19 July 2019 in Tokyo, Japan; the Multi Domain Battle (MDB) In Megacities Conference, 3-4 April 2018 at Fort Hamilton, New York, and the Megacities and Dense Urban Areas Conference, 21-22 April 2016 at Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona. Videos of the presentations from each of these conferences may be accessed here, here, and here, respectively.

Military Implications of Smart Cities, by Alexander Braszko, Jr.

Warfare in the Parallel Cambrian Age, by Chris O’Connor

Integrated Sensors: The Critical Element in Future Complex Environment Warfare, by Dr. Richard Nabors

For additional insights regarding combat in urban terrain, please also listen to the following podcasts, hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute:

Walking the Urban Battlefield of Shusha, with MAJ John Spencer (USA-Ret.)

The Battle for Mosul, with COL Pat Work

The Future Urban Battlefield, with Dr. Russell Glenn

Disclaimer: The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

51. Then and Now: Using the Past to Secure the Future with W02 Paul Barnes Feb 24, 2022

Show notes

Paul Barnes is a serving Warrant Officer in the British Army, employed as a Doctrine Writer at the Land Warfare Centre. He is uniquely a Chief of the Air Staff’s Fellow, a Chief of the General Staff’s Fellow, and a former MWI fellow at West Point in 2021.

In today’s interview, Warrant Officer Class 2 Paul Barnes, British Army, discusses his article Learning the Wrong Lessons: Biases, the Rejection of History, and Single-Issue Zealotry in Modern Military Thought, featured by our colleagues at Modern War Institute; learning from historical conflicts; and fighting against “neophilia” and “presentism”. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

In the aforementioned article, Paul Barnes discusses the dangers of “presentism,” in which current events are catastrophized and used to inform the future without adequate acknowledgement of historical context. This mindset creates two dangerous fallacies: 1) that the world is more dangerous than it has been before; and 2) that technology is developing more rapidly than ever before.These statements are both false and promote the idea that history cannot help us understand our operational environment.

The misconceptions promoted by presentism are generally accepted due to a lack of contextual historical understanding.However, militaries also promote the ideas of presentism to secure greater budget allocations. Analysts, too, use presentism to promote the legitimacy of their ideas and engagement with their work.

Leveraging historical context to avoid the bias of presentism can be challenging. Even information from on-the-ground analysts throughout history will include bias. Multiple perspectives from history should be recognized, thus creating the opportunity to ‘learn from committee’ and avoid the pitfalls of biased reporting.

The age of the tank is not over, as seen in the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. Modern and future warfare will continue to leverage a combination ofinformation operations and heavy combined arms maneuver.

To avoid presentism, enhanced education on critical thinking,bias recognition, and military history should be incorporated in professional military education for both Soldiers and Leaders.The latter is especially important, as an understanding of the past helps provide context for comprehending the present. While we can “train for the known,” education will help the Army be better prepared for the unknown.

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out the following content:

The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict, the entire document from which that post was excerpted, and the TRADOC G-2’s Threats to 2030 video addressing the challenges facing the U.S. Army in the near operational environment (i.e., now to 2030)

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts, with Brent L. Sterling, and associated podcast

Ultimate Victory: Lessons on Future Warfare from Field-Marshal Viscount William Slim, by Luke Shabro

Making the Future More Personal: The Oft-Forgotten Human Driver in Future’s Analysis and “Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel, by Ian Sullivan

Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and associated podcast

Insights from the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict in 2020 (Parts 1 and 2)

The Convergence: The Future of Ground Warfare with COL Scott Shaw and associatedpodcast

Lessons from the Cold War: “The Ugly American” and Multi-Domain Operations by Peter Brownfeld

Why the Next “Cuban Missile Crisis” Might Not End Well: Cyberwar and Nuclear Crisis Managementby Dr. Stephen J. Cimbala

How Big of a Deal are Drone Swarms?by proclaimed Mad Scientist Zak Kallenborn

The Dawn of the Loitering Munitions Era, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Daniel S. Nasereddine

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC); nor the UK Ministry of Defence, British Army, or Land Warfare Centre.

50. Disinformation Threats to the All-Volunteer Force with MAJ Joe Littell and CPT Maggie Smith Feb 10, 2022

Show notes

MAJ Joe Littell is a U.S. Army officer and researcher assigned to the Army Cyber Institute at the United States Military Academy. He has been an instructor in the Math and History departments, teaching statistics and intelligence history. His research includes computational propaganda, open source intelligence, narrative warfare, de-platforming, and generative media (such as deepfakes).

CPT Maggie Smith, PhD, is a U.S. Army cyber officer also assigned to the Army Cyber Institute, where she is a scientific researcher, an assistant professor in the Department of Social Sciences, and an affiliated faculty of the Modern War Institute. She is also the director of the Competition in Cyberspace Project.

In our interview with MAJ Littell and CPT Smith, we discussed the impact of information operations on recruitment, retention, and overall force readiness, and how we can gain information advantage over our adversaries. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:

Western liberal democracies’ concept of the internet as a platform for the free exchange of ideas is not shared by Russia and China, who regularly manage the information available to their populations via their concept of “cyber sovereignty.” As a result, Russia and China have extensive experience in manipulating online information to influence both domestic and foreign populations via propaganda. The United States has not developed this skillset.

While Russia and China see information operations as a critical component of every operation, the United States has yet to adopt this strategy. Consequently, the U.S. is lagging behind its peer competitors in information warfare, oftentimes considering the narrative-building component of its actions only as an afterthought.

The technologies facilitating today’s social media age are not the first to impact information operations — the printing press and radio were two revolutionary technologies that have been weaponized to control public opinion. Today’s digital technologies, however, are unique in that actors can now buy data to determine what messaging will be most impactful, enabling them to precisely target groups of individuals.For example, in the run up to the 2016 Presidential election, Russia created “Blacktivist” and “Back the Badge” social media accounts to exploit and push a divisive agenda, manipulating and polarizing American citizens.
- Russia and China are leveraging information operations to change the U.S. population’s perceptions, targeting military and veteran populations with false narratives that America doesn’t care about its military service members. Additionally, they seek to drive wedges between Service members and Commanders with divisive rhetoric. While it is difficult to confirm a causal relationship between these efforts and the military’s inability to hit recruitment targets, our adversaries’ efforts to exploit emotional issues and radicalize both sides of an argument have proven successful in other contexts.
While the Army and the Department of Defense are skilled at developing Professional Military Education(PME) programs, it is still unclear exactly what programming will provide the strongest defense against disinformation. At a minimum, programs will need to incorporate critical thinking practice at every level and diversity in units will be essential to prevent group think.
- Every source of information has some amount of bias, with media outlets delivering differing perspectives of the same story. Individuals with diverse life experiences view the world through diverse lenses; understanding this can help us find the truth across a plethora of media sources. Disinformation efforts capitalize on real events but push emotional narratives to the extreme. Soldiers should be taught how to evaluatethe information they consume — by examining their “media diet” or critically searching for the baseline truth in pieces designed to capitalize on human emotion.

We should build a cyber-resilient Army Team, to include Soldiers transitioning out of military service that are most at-risk of being targeted with disinformation.Supporting Soldiers in all aspects of their service and as they transition to new endeavors is critical to building a resilient force overall.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratoryfor our next episode of The Convergence podcast — featuring our interview with Warrant Officer Class 2 Paul Barnes, British Army, discussing his article Learning the Wrong Lessons: Biases, the Rejection of History, and Single-Issue Zealotry in Modern Military Thought, featured by our colleagues at Modern War Institute; learning from historical conflicts; and fighting against “neophilia” and “presentism”.

The Army Cyber Institute, in cooperation with the Modern War Institute and the Competition in Cyberspace Project, is conducting its Cyber Policy Challenge Essay Contest to generate new ideas and expand the dialogue within the military cyber community — for more information about this contest, click here!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the Army Cyber Institute’s Cyber Defense Review (CDR) journal for additional thought provoking scholarly articles and essays on the strategic, operational, and tactical aspects of the cyber domain…

… as well as the following related content:

The U.S. Congress’ original Cyberspace Solarium Report from 2020 and the 2021 Annual Report on Implementation, addressing the Nation’s progress in implementing the original report’s 82 recommendations, as well as recommendations added in white papers since its release.

Virtual Intervention: People First in 2035, by LTC James Leidenberg

Veritas, Agilis, Versabilis, by Ed dos Santos, Jr.

The Future of War is Cyber! by CPT Casey Igo and CPT Christian Turley

Sub-threshold Maneuver and the Flanking of U.S. National Security, by Dr. Russell Glenn

Global Entanglement and Multi-Reality Warfare and associated podcast, with COL Stefan Banach (USA-Ret.)

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage by Ian Sullivan; The Exploitation of our Biases through Improved Technology by proclaimed Mad Scientist Raechel Melling; A House Divided: Microtargeting and the next Great American Threat by 1LT Carlin Keally; The Erosion of National Will – Implications for the Future Strategist by Dr. Nick Marsella; Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far…; and Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events

U.S. Demographics, 2020-2028: Serving Generations and Service Propensity; The Inexorable Role of Demographics by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth; The Future of Talent and Soldiers with MAJ Delaney Brown, CPT Jay Long, and 1LT Richard Kuzma and associated podcast ; and The Trouble with Talent: Why We’re Struggling to Recruit and Retain Our Workforce by Sarah L. Sladek

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

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