The Convergence - The Army's Mad Scientist Podcast

Latest Episodes:

100. The Dictator's Dream: A Conversation with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) Jul 18, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: Last week’s Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post featured a timely “what if?” nightmare scenario by COL John Antal (USA-Ret.), set in a not-too-distant-future — imagining an Operational Environment where today’s National Defense Strategy threat members, colluding as a coalition of autocracies, launched simultaneous surprise strikes against United States’ Joint forces around the globe.

In today’s 100th episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist welcomes back COL Antal to read his scenario for our listeners and discuss its associated implications for the U.S. Army — Enjoy!]

COL John Antal (USA-Ret.) is a Soldier, military historian, and leadership expert. He served 30 years in the U.S. Army as a combat arms officer, senior staff officer, and commander. He is the author of two recent books on modern warfare: Next War: Reimagining How We Fight (September 2023) and 7 Seconds to Die: A Military Analysis of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and the Future of Warfighting (February 2022).

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with COL Antal to review and discuss his troubling scenario and the associated implications for the U.S. Army. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

The Dictator’s Dreamis a fictional story written as a wakeup call for Army Leaders to focus on a worst-case scenario. “Useful fiction” presents possible scenarios intended to develop creativity and strengthen foresight — solving problems in the short term and creating solutions for the long-run. The U.S. could end up in a war for national survival — something most people cannot imagine. This scenario helps our Leaders to imagine and think about how to respond to such an existential threat.
The increasing speed of battlefield adaptation requires the U.S. Army to innovate and develop courses of action very rapidly. We can use lessons from history, specifically recent history, to help inform our decisions on how to adapt our forces. Wargames and thought experiments are also essential, enabling our Leaders to engage in productive dialogues on creative, timely solutions.
We are living in a precarious time – possibly more dangerous than at any other time in the 21st century. American deterrence has been dramatically affected by events in the past several years, providing our adversaries with opportunities to exploit. These threats are now colluding in ways we have not previously seen – becoming allies.
Training rotations at our Combat Training Centers are capstone training events for our maneuver brigade combat teams. They must accurately depict the Operational Environment(OE), specifically regarding the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle/Counter-Unmanned Aerial System (UAV/C-UAS) fight and the dispersed battlefield. You do not rise to the level of your expectations; you fall to the level of your training.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 01 August 2024, as we continue to explore the Future Dynamics of Warfareproject with Army War College student LTC Kristine Hinds — addressing 5th Generation Warfare, the 6th Domain, and how we might need to adapt to defend ourselves and our Nation from these evolutions to the OE.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following previously published Army Mad Scientist content featuring COL Antal: The Dictator’s Dream,Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and associated podcast, and Sooner Than We Think: Command Post Survivability and Future Threats and associated podcast.

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterpriseweb page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

Read the following Army Mad Scientist OE and threat content:

Realer than Real: Useful Fiction and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientists P.W. Singer and August Cole

Rapid Adaptation

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Brent L. Sterling

Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts Oneand Two)

Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

WMD Threat: Now and in the Future

The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

99. Blending: The Art of Hiding in Plain Sight with LtCol Erik Keim May 30, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: Last week’s Mad Scientist Laboratory post featured an assessment by U.S. Army War College student LtCol Erik Keim (USMC) that “militaries will blend with civilian transmissions instead of relying solely on the specific military electromagnetic spectrum by 2030 due to the availability of Software Defined Radios (SDRs) and the proven success of digital camouflage.”

In today’s episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with LtCol Keim to discuss the Future Dynamics of Warfare project he and his U.S. Army War College classmates collaborated on, his research on blending in the electromagnetic spectrum, and how the Army can adapt to the modern battlefield — Enjoy!]

LtCol Erik Keim is currently a resident student at the U.S. Army War College. He holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science from the University of Wyoming and a Master’s Degree in Information Technology Management from the Naval Postgraduate School. He is the recipient of the 2015 Rear Admiral Grace Murray Hopper Award from the Naval Postgraduate School. LtCol Keim is a Marine Corps Communications Officer with over 20 years of service and deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, and throughout the Western Pacific.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with LtCol Keim to talk about his work on the Team Sullivan’s Travels project at the U.S. Army War College, what his research showed for the U.S. Army, and how blending might be a viable course of action on a cluttered battlefield. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

Current military tactics use reserved frequencies and high-powered transmitters for communications. These actions stand out in the electromagnetic spectrum and make it easy for the enemy to triangulate and pinpoint the origin of the emissions for targeting and destruction.

The on-going war in Ukrainehas shown that both sides are able to very quickly and easily identify and locate the source of communications transmissions and use a variety of kinetic attacks on those locations. Blending would be a viable alternative to using traditional military frequencies, with military communications “hiding within the noise” of commercial and civilian transmissions – e.g., WiFi, 4G and 5G, and Bluetooth.

Blending in with the background electromagnetic spectrum “noise” makes it much harder for an adversary to detect and discern specific military communications from normal environmental transmissions. This may come with added risk — Russia, for instance, transitioned to using cell phone communications but used unencrypted signals that Ukraine was able to intercept and act on.

The contemporary battlefield shows that if you are operating anywhere in the world, you can be seen, and if you can be seen you can be hit.Military operations require diligence when emitting and transmitting. Following the principles of shoot, move, communicate, and move again will help ensure survivability, but a mix of old and new techniques might be needed. Military software applications on cell phones that use cellular frequencies but protect transmissions may be key. High-fidelity decoys that can trick ISR systems might give forces just enough time to move before the enemy can discern what is real from battlefield deception.

New or modified Military Occupational Specialties may be necessary as the role of Frequency Manager evolves. Instead of ensuring that forces have the requisite frequencies reserved for operations and working with host-nations to deconflict, they will instead need to become more proactively tactical — sensing the EM spectrum to understand what “normal” looks like, identifying anomalies that may indicate enemy operations, and knowing what ambient conditions are so that they can seamlessly blend in to hide their signals.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 20 June 2024, as we continue to explore the Future Dynamics of Warfareproject with Army War College student LTC Kristine Hinds — addressing 5th Generation Warfare, the 6th Domain, and how we might need to adapt to defend ourselves and our Nation from these evolutions to the Operational Environment.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out LtCol Erik Keim‘s Hiding in Plain Sight: Blending in the Electromagnetic Spectrum, as well as Team Sullivan’s Travels‘ Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target and their associated Final Report.

Review our series of blog posts exploring what we’re learning about the Operational Environment:

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

Rapid Adaptation

WMD Threat: Now and in the Future

The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics

Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterpriseweb page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment (OE) and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Information Paper(TIP).

Read the following related posts:

Timeless Competitions

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Pattern Detected! Masking by Injecting Randomness, by Chris Butler

Nowhere to Hide: Information Exploitation and Sanitization

War Laid Bareand Decision in the 21st Century, by Matthew Ader

Warfare in the Parallel Cambrian Age, by Chris O’Connor

Battlefield sensing and AI discussions in The Future of Ground Warfare and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Scott Shaw

Battlefield transparency and masking discussions in Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War and associated podcast, as well as Sooner Than We Think: Command Post Survivability and Future Threats and associated podcast, both with COL John Antal (USA-Ret.)

98. The OSINT Odyssey: Unmasking Digital Clues with Mr. Shawn Nilius May 16, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: The TRADOC G-2 appreciates the value of Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) in informing us about emergent trends across the Operational Environment (OE). For almost two years, analysts within the G-2 ACE collated insights on Russia’s on-going “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine to learn about the contemporary Russian way of war, understand how they were adapting and innovating across enduring Large Scale Combat Operations, and identify potential ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P. The associated weekly “scrum” methodology generating weekly TRADOC Running Estimates and associated Narratives is described in greater detail in this Red Diamond article.

Beginning in January 2024, the G-2 ACE adapted this methodology to address its FY24 Program of Analysis key intelligence questions spanning the OE and conducted bi-weekly “scrums” to generate monthly OE Running Estimates and associated Narratives, and quarterly OE Assessments.

Each of these weekly TRADOC Running Estimatesand monthly OE Running Estimates were “synchronized” with corresponding classified products prior to their publication to ensure the highest fidelity and accuracy in OE reporting. Capturing these insights has proven invaluable in the G-2 describing the evolving OE — foundational to TRADOC’s mission of training Soldiers and supporting unit training; developing adaptive Leaders; guiding the Army through doctrine; and shaping the Army by building and integrating formations, capabilities, and materiel. Links to our archives of these TRADOC and OE Running Estimates may be found at the end of this blog post.

In today’s episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, to discuss why OSINT is important to the Army, how it is being used in contemporary operations, and how he sees it evolving over the next 10 years — Enjoy!]

Mr. Shawn M. Nilius was appointed Director, Army Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) Office in March 2022. The Army OSINT Office (AOO) serves as the OSINT operational support lead for Army OSINT and provides technical oversight, compliance, management, and governance of open-source activities while synchronizing resourcing and requirements across the Army Intelligence and Security Enterprise (AISE). Prior to becoming a Department of the Army civilian, Mr. Nilius served as a career Army Military Intelligence Officer, whose previous assignments included Director of Intelligence (G-2), U.S. Army Africa; Director, Combined Joint Intelligence Operations Center, U.S. Forces Afghanistan, Kabul, Afghanistan; Director, Joint Intelligence Center Special Operations Command, U.S. Special Operations Command, Tampa, Florida; and Director of Intelligence (J-2), U.S. Forces – Iraq, Baghdad, Iraq. Mr. Nilius has a Masters of Science, Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania; a Masters of Science, Strategic Intelligence-Middle Eastern Studies, National Intelligence University, Washington, DC; and a Bachelors of Arts, Political Science, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, to learn what OSINT is, how it is collected, and how it is having an impact on current conflicts. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

OSINT is not the same as Publicly Available Information (PAI). Around 85% of the information available worldwide is PAI – this includes content on the internet. However, the general population spends most of their time being exposed to only 4% of the entirety of the internet – the tip of the iceberg. Below the surface, in the deep and dark web, is where the Army goes to counter nefarious actors.

Not everyone can collect OSINT. Only intelligence professionals with an assigned mission, authorities, and a collection requirement from the Commander can retrieve open-source information and process it into finished intelligence.

Training intelligence professionals in OSINT collection is vital. The Armywas the first service to put OSINT training into the training program at the Intelligence Center of Excellence. After completion, collectors are given a set of ‘tools’ to use on the open internet to aid in their search. The Army OSINT office also monitors all collectors’ actions to ensure compliance with guidance, rules, and applicable laws.

OSINT is not new, but changes in the character of warfare have impacted OSINT collection – predominantly the increase in the speed of the battlefield. Recent conflicts have shown that information from the battlefield can be communicated in near real-time. For example, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was first shown through a civilian with a cellphonelive-streaming the Russian tanks crossing the border – publicly available information, captured by a collector, and turned into intelligence.

Misinformation and disinformationwill flood a collector’s search. Properly trained, they will be able to identify fact from fiction.Early in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, video surfaced online of troops parachuting into the battlefield, purporting to be a recent development. A seasoned OSINT collector correctly identified the video as footage from the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

OSINT should be the ‘INT’ of first resort. The speed at which it can be collected, processed, exploited, and disseminated means that it should be used to ‘tip’ or ‘cue’ the other INTs early in the planning and operations stages. The Army can use OSINT to quickly and effectively orient their decision making in the right direction to ultimately achieveinformation advantage.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 30 May 2024, featuring LtCol Erik Keim (USMC) discussing the Future Dynamics of Warfare project he and his AWC classmates collaborated on, his research on blending in the electromagnetic spectrum, and how the Army can adapt to the modern battlefield.

If you enjoyed this post, check out our series of blog posts exploring what we’re learning about the Operational Environment:

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

Rapid Adaptation

WMD Threat: Now and in the Future

The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics

Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterpriseweb page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment (OE) and how our adversaries fight, including:

Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our RUS-UKR Conflict SharePoint site’s weekly TRADOC Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

Our OE Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Information Paper(TIP).

Read the following related Mad Scientist Laboratoryposts:

Democratized Intelligence and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore

Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore

Weaponized Information: What We’ve Learned So Far…, Insights from the Mad Scientist Weaponized Information Series of Virtual Events, and all of this series’ associated content and videos

China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage, by Ian Sullivan

97. Threat #49: I Think There's Trouble Brewin' with Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton May 02, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: Humanity is entering an era of hyper-innovation as the potential of Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, and Neurocognitive Sciences are harnessed to revolutionize human endeavors. As these exponential convergences of technologies spin ever faster cycles of adaptation and innovation, the quest for dominance and advantage will favor those who jettison outdated industrial age processes and implement (and resource!) whole-of-nation strategies integrating private and public sector science and technology enterprises.

In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, our “rock star” proclaimed Mad Scientists — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — return to discuss the transformative convergence of neuroscience and artificial intelligence and its implications for the Operational Environment — Read on!]

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano is Pellegrino Center Professor in the Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry; Chief of the Neuroethics Studies Program; and Chair of the Subprogram in Military Medical Ethics at Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC. Dr. Giordano is a Bioethicist of the Defense Medical Ethics Center at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences; Distinguished Stockdale Fellow in Science, Technology, and Ethics at the United States Naval Academy; Senior Fellow in Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI; Senior Science Advisory Fellow of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Joint Staff / J-39, The Pentagon; Chair Emeritus of the Neuroethics Project of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Brain Initiative; and serves as Director of the Institute for Biodefense Research, a federally funded Washington, DC, think tank dedicated to addressing emerging issues at the intersection of science, technology and national defense. He previously served as Donovan Group Senior Fellow, U.S. Special Operations Command; member of the Neuroethics, Legal, and Social Issues Advisory Panel of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); and Task Leader of the Working Group on Dual-Use of the EU-Human Brain Project.

Dr. Giordano is the author of 340 peer-reviewed publications, 7 books, and 45 governmental reports on science, technology, and biosecurity, and is an elected member of the European Academy of Science and Arts, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine (UK), and a Fulbright Professorial Fellow. A former U.S. Naval officer, he held designations as an aerospace physiologist and research psychologist, and served with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps.

Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Canton is a global futurist, social scientist, author, and strategic advisor. As a former Apple Computer executive and high-tech entrepreneur, he has been insightfully forecasting the key trends and technologies that have shaped our world, including AI-nano-bio-IT-neuroquantum-cloud. The Economist recognizes him as one of the leading global futurists. He has advised three White House Administrations, the DoD, Intelligence Community, and over 100 companies over 30 years. Dr. Canton is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank he founded in 1990 that advises business and government.

Dr. Canton is the author of Future Smart, The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next Twenty Years, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century. Dr. Canton has been a lecturer at Stanford University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, New York University, the U.S. Army and Naval War Colleges, and the Joint Special Operations University. He has held appointments at Singularity University at NASA, the Kellogg School of Management, MIT’s Media Lab, EU, the Potomac Institute, and served on the International Advisory Council, Singapore Economic Development Board, and been an advisor to the National Science and Technology Council and the U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Health and Human Services.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with our “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — to discuss a new threat that combines neuroscience and artificial intelligence. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

Big Datais underpinning advances in both neurocognitive sciences and artificial intelligence – especially machine learning and deep learning. The exponential convergence of technologies (Nanoscience and Nanotechnology, Biotechnology and Biomedicine, Information Technology, Cognitive Science and Neuroscience, and Quantum Science) is leading to revolutionary achievements – we’re on the cusp of realizing neuromorphic chips that mimic brain function.
The private sector has made significant leaps forward in the advancement of big data, synthetic intelligence, and neuroscience, while the Government is just now catching up to integrating the convergence of these technologies into our capabilities.
We are currently in an era in which innovation is happening near simultaneously, facilitated by the exploitation of entirely new kinds of artificial intelligence. “AI time” is infinitely collapsible – computing time has become exponentially quicker than human labor.Large Language Models and pattern recognition algorithms are revolutionizing creativity and innovation across all human endeavors, including competition and conflict.
Due to the rapid pace of science and technology advancements and convergences, we must be on the other side of perfect — better is truly the enemy of good enough! Twentieth century industrial age processes taking multiple years or even decades to yield exquisite and expensive capabilities are no longer viable in an era of rapid adaptation— we will compete and fight in an Operational Environment where adversarial systems will be smaller, faster, cheaper, and more disposable. Moore’s Law is out – instead of 18 months for advancements to double, it’s now 18 days.
Our previous fights have been asymmetrical — the next war will be far more symmetrical as advances in science and technology continue.While our international peer competitors have well-defined strategic scientific and technological plans, the U.S. lacks a strategic plan of the same caliber. A whole-of-nations approach is necessary to define a unified government posture and strategic plan for science and technology, married to a governmentally-sponsored effort to join the research and commercial communities to realize this plan -– absent this, we will fail.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 16 May 2024, featuring Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, discussing why OSINT is important to the Army, how it is being used in contemporary operations, and how he sees it evolving over the next 10 years!

If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out our previous pairing featuring Mad Scientist’s “James Gang” — One Brain Chip, Please! Neuro-AI with two of the Maddest Scientists and associated podcast

… review the following related content:

Speed, Scope, and Convergence Trends

There Will Be Data and associated podcast, with Dr. Inderpal Bhandari

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC

The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC

Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast

Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer

Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper

Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas

“Own the Night”and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

Rapid Adaptation

WMD Threat: Now and in the Future

The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

… then crank up the original James Gang‘s Funk #49!

>>>>REMINDER: Army Mad Scientist wants to crowdsource your thoughts on asymmetric warfare — check out our Operational Environment Wicked Problems Writing Contest.

All entries mustaddress the following topic:

How have innovations in asymmetric warfare impacted modern large scale and other combat operations, and what further evolutions could take place, both within the next 10 years and on towards mid-century?

We are accepting three types of submissions:

1500-word Non-Fiction Essay
1500-word Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) Story
Hybrid 1500-word submission incorporating a short FICINT vignette, with a Non-Fiction Essay expounding on the threat capabilities described in the vignette

Anyone can participate (Soldiers, Government Civilians, and all global citizens) — Multiple submissions are encouraged!

All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 16, 2024 at: madscitradoc@gmail.com

Click herefor additional information on this contest — we look forward to your participation!

96. Calling All Wargamers and Mad Sci Update! Apr 18, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: Crowdsourcing remains an effective tool for harvesting ideas and concepts from a wide array of individuals, helping us to diversify thought and challenge conventional assumptions. Army Mad Scientist seeks to crowdsource the intellect of the Nation (i.e., you — our community of action!) with two concurrent opportunities this Spring. In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we explore these crowdsourcing opportunities — Read the highlights here, listen to the podcast, then get busy crafting your inputs to both!] In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientists Matthew Santaspirt and Raechel Melling discuss our two concurrent crowdsourcing opportunities: Calling All Wargamersand Wicked Problems Writing Contest — check out the highlights from this conversation below. [If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click hereto listen to the podcast.] Calling All Wargamers! Regular consumers of Army Mad Scientist content — via this blog site and The Convergence podcast — understand how wargaming can enhance Professional Military Education (PME), hone cognitive warfighting skills, and broaden our understanding of the Operational Environment. Wargaming removes hierarchies and encourages players to attempt innovative solutions, while also creating a safe environment in which to fail repeatedly and learn from mistakes. Wargaming can also help us assess concepts and capabilities with a reasonable degree of verisimilitude — before committing the Nation to costly, and in some instances, irrevocable courses of action. In challenging our assumptions and reinvigorating our thoughts about Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO), wargaming can be a useful tool in facilitating life-long learning and guarding against that most fatal of flaws in assessing the Operational Environment — the failure of imagination! Army Mad Scientist wants to hear from you about your wargaming experiences: What are you learning about LSCO? What wargames do you find useful for learning about military operations? If you could imagine the perfect wargame, what would it look like? What Great Power peripheral flashpoints are you gaming? What emergent technologies (or convergences) are you integrating into your wargaming? What compelling insights from gaming would you most like to share with the U.S. Army? Submit your responses to these questions and more at: madscitradoc@gmail.com NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 1, 2024. Check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory blog posts on wargaming: Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts Oneand Two) Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Futureand associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges A New American Way of Trainingand associated podcast, with Jennifer McArdle From Legos to Modular Simulation Architectures: Enabling the Power of Future (War) Play, by Jennifer McArdle and Caitlin Dohrman The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY The Metaverse: Blurring Reality and Digital Lives with Cathy Hackl and associated podcast Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast Fight Club Prepares Lt Col Maddie Novák for Cross-Dimension Manoeuvre, by now COL Arnel David, U.S. Army, and Major Aaron Moore, British Army, along with their interview in The Convergence: UK Fight Club – Gaming the Future Army and associated podcast Operational Environment Wicked Problems Writing Contest During the past decade, conflicts around the globe have shaped our understanding of Twenty-first Century warfighting. The convergence of battlefield transparency, autonomous systems, and massed and precision fires have resulted in an increasingly lethalOE. Inexpensive, expendable, man-portable precision munitions in the hands of dismounted infantry are attriting exquisite, expensive, and finite combat systems — main battle tanks, capital warships, and strategic bombers — once the “gold-standard” of global military strength and dominance. Army Mad Scientist is hosting a writing contest to explore this aspect of the OE. All entries must address the following topic: How have innovations in asymmetric warfare impacted modern large scale and other combat operations, and what further evolutions could take place, both within the next 10 years and on towards mid-century? We are accepting three types of submissions: 1500-word Non-Fiction Essay 1500-word Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) Story Hybrid 1500-word submission incorporating a short FICINT vignette, with a Non-Fiction Essay expounding on the threat capabilities described in the vignette Anyone can participate (Soldiers, Government Civilians, and all global citizens) — Multiple submissions are encouraged! All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 16, 2024 at: madscitradoc@gmail.com Click herefor additional information on this contest — we look forward to your participation! Check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory blog posts associated with previous writing contests: The Future of the AI Battlefield: Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi Back to the Future: Task Force Wolf, by proclaimed Mad Scientist LTC Daniel Gomez The Operational Environment: What Will Change and What Will Drive It – Today to 2035? Splinternets, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Howard R. Simkin The Operational Environment in 2035 Writing Contest: Louisiana Maneuvers for the Age of Artificial Intelligence, by proclaimed Mad Scientist MAJ Michael B. Kim The Information Disruption Industry and the Operational Environment of the Future, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Vincent H. O’Neil Military Implications of Smart Cities, by Alexander Braszko, Jr. Information Warfare Vignettes Writing Contest: Three Best Information Warfare Vignettes, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Davis Ellison, Tony Stark, and Rob Kunzig Competition, Crisis, Conflict, and Change Writing Contest: The U.S. Joint Force’s Defeat before Conflict, by proclaimed Mad Scientist CPT Anjanay Kumar The Future of War is Cyber! by CPT Casey Igo and CPT Christian Turley A House Divided: Microtargeting and the next Great American Threat, by 1LT Carlin Keally CALLING ALL CREATORS ~ An Army Mad Scientist Multi-Media Contest: Kryptós, by proclaimed Mad Scientist CPT Katherine Hathaway 2nd Dense Urban Armored Brigade (DUAB) Personnel Evaluations, by Ed dos Santos, Jr. Fall / Winter 2021 Writing Contest: OASIS: A North American Proving Ground, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Steve Pomper The Army’s Next Failed War: Large Scale Combat Operations, by proclaimed Mad Scientist MAJ Anthony Joyce On Surprise Attacks Below the “Bolt from the Blue” Threshold, by Lesley Kucharski Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 2 May 2024, featuring Dennis Eger, Senior OSINT Advisor, and Shawn Nilius, Director, Army OSINT Office, discussing why OSINT is important to the Army, how it’s being used in contemporary operations, and how they see it evolving over the next 10 years! Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post and podcast do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

Full show notes at the publisher

95. African Skies: Space Exploration and National Security Perspectives with Selina Hayes Mar 28, 2024

Show notes

“China sits in INDOPACOM, but the playground is Africa.”

[Editor’s Note: Regular readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory will recall that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) reported, “Relatively poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will account for almost all global population growth during the next two decades…” The World Economic Forum supported this assessment, projecting that Africa’s population is likely to triple by 2100. Specifically, Nigeria is set to become the second most populous country in the world by 2100, trailing only India.

The significance of this growth is not lost on China — our pacing challenge has already established a permanent military presence in Djibouti and it is seeking to establish another military base at Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. China is investing strategically throughout sub-Saharan Africa — it is now Africa’s biggest trading partner, with Sino-African trade exceeding $200 billion per year, and Africa has surpassed Asia as the largest market for China’s international construction projects. China continues to exert its influence across the continent via its Belt and Road Initiative.

In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Selina Hayes, Founder and CEO of The Hayes Group International, to discuss the nexus of space investment and operations in Africa — a critical region of focus for our adversaries — and the potential implications for the U.S. Army — Enjoy!]

Selina Hayes founded Hayes Group International (HGI) to provide unique access to people, places, and data. Designed to disrupt, Ms. Hayes has access to strategic partners and networks across Africa and the Pacific. With her intelligence background and unique on-the-ground experience, HGI has developed and delivered solutions involving multiple intelligence sensors, information gateways, information operations, cultural intelligence, data collection, geospatial, ISR, and Space-as-a-Service. Ms. Hayes has extensive experience leading defense and international business development strategies for emerging and disruptive ISR, PED, and geospatial technologies. She successfully combined the innovation of Silicon Valley with Washington, having successfully launched three new technologies in the DoD ecosystem to expand the capabilities of our country. As HGI’s CEO, Ms. Hayes has introduced her connections in Africa and the Pacific with this unique access to exquisite data sources and nonconventional methodologies.

Army Mad Scientist sat down with Ms. Hayes to discuss her work in creating access to the Space Domain in Africa and why the DoD should pay more attention to that continent. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

The Hayes Group International is a team of individuals that problem solves in unique parts of the world, specifically the continent of Africa, focusing on disruptive technology and how that tech is integrated into society.

Africa has become less of a focus with the U.S. national security shift from counterinsurgency to strategic competition— however, Africa is a playground for our adversaries. From a national security standpoint, it is critical to assess Chinese and Russian influences on the continent.

Financial institutions and commercial entities play an influential role in most African countries. Companies, such as Walmart and Amazon, are often more influentialto Africa than some nations. DoD has an opportunity to evaluate the role these organizations could play in national security and possible prospects for future collaboration in the region.

Africa is home to natural reserves of several rare earth materials needed for satellites and other critical military and commercial technology. More than 950 pounds of rare earth and critical minerals go into every F-35 combat aircraft and Cobalt is used as a vital component of lithium-ion batteries, of which 68% of the world’s supply of cobalt sits in the ground in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Hayes Group International, along with partners in Kenya, are working to establish a space port on the east coast of Africa.A space port would economically and strategically benefit Kenya, Africa, and surrounding nations, as many countries and organizations, including the U.S. and DoD, heavily depend on space-based capabilities. Today’s maneuver Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has over 2,500 pieces of equipment dependent on space-based assets for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT). The Army can explore this region cooperatively, and gain access to a new set of capabilities in a geographically and strategically important area.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 18 April 2024.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC G-2’s Operational Environment Enterprise public facing page, brimming with threat content, including:

… our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we have been learning about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P;

… and our Iran and North Korea Products pages, with additional threat information.

Also review the following Mad Scientist Laboratory space and technology content:

Building Beyond: Preparing the Army for Lift-Off and associated podcast, with Dr. Olga Bannova

LSCO, PNT, and the Space Domain, by CPT Matthew R. Bigelow

Space: Challenges and Opportunities

Star Wars 2050, The Final Frontier: Directed Energy Applications in Outer Space, and The Evolution of Nation-States and Their Role in the Future, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy

Beyond Space and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Kara Cunzeman

Space 2035: A Surplus of Uncertainty and a Deficit of Trust, by Maj Rachel Reynolds

Accelerating American Space Settlements, by Dr. Lydia Kostopoulos

Table of Future Technologies: A 360 Degree View Based on Anticipated Availability, by Richard Buchter

… as well as the Dr. Moriba Jah on What Does the Future Hold for the US Military in Space? podcast hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute

94. A surprise Interview With a Mystery Guest Mar 21, 2024

Show notes

This is a special off-schedule episode of The Convergence where we talk with a mystery guest, possibly for the last time!

93. Insights from the Israel-Hamas War with LTC Kenneth Hardy Mar 14, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: It has almost been a decade since U.S. forces and coalition partners assisted Iraqi government forces in dislodging ISIS fighters from Mosul in what some observers described as the toughest urban battle since World War II. With the Islamic Resistance Movement’s (aka Hamas) October 7, 2023 cross-border terror attacks on Israel and subsequent Israel Defense Forces’ combat operations in Gaza, new lessons are emerging about engaging an entrenched adversary across 360 square kilometers of densely populated (over 2 million Palestinian civilians) and highly urbanized terrain.

As Dr. Brent Sterling reminded our readers and listeners, other observers are also watching and learning — especially our pacing challenge China with regard to potential operations in dense urban centers on Taiwan, North Korea with its subterranean operations beneath the Demilitarized Zone, and Iran and its “Axis of Resistance” in continuing to target U.S. and Israeli interests.

In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with LTC Kenneth Hardy, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) liaison officer to the Israel Defense Forces, and discusses the on-going Israel/Hamas Conflict and key lessons the U.S. Army is learning about contemporary asymmetric warfare in dense urban terrain — Read on!]

LTC Kenneth Hardy currently serves as the U.S. Army TRADOC Liaison Officer to the Israel Defense Forces. A Middle East Foreign Area Officer, LTC Hardy’s previous assignments have included In-Region Training (IRT) as a U.S. Security Cooperation Officer to the Moroccan Military in Rabat, Morocco; Political/ Military advisor to the Commander, USARCENT, and Security Cooperation/Liaison Officer to Kuwait and Qatar Armed Forces; Security Assistance Officer to the Egyptian Land Forces and Border Guard in Cairo, Egypt; and Middle East Analyst and CENTCOM J2 International Engagements, Tampa, Florida. LTC Hardy has a Bachelor’s Degree in Chemistry from the University of Central Oklahoma, an Associate’s Degree in Arabic from the Defense Language Institute, and a Master’s Degree in International Relations and Policy from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

Army Mad Scientistsat down with LTC Hardy to discuss his observations regarding the October 7^th Hamas attacks on Israel and insights into how this larger conflict is informing the U.S. Army about the Operational Environment. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas showcases the battle between low-tech and high-tech — for example Hamas employed massed salvoes of inexpensive, home-madeQassam rockets and grenades dropped by drones to defeat parts of Israel’s multi-million-dollar Iron Dome missile defense system.
Close integration of maneuver and specialized units is vital to any future conflict — especially so on complex terrain. The mobility of the IDF’s mechanized forces is being challenged in Gaza’s dense urban environment, with rubble further hampering maneuver, forcing them to learn on the fly from already thinly-stretched combat engineers.
Subterranean operationsis a huge force multiplier. Hamas leveraged years of experience excavating and improving its network of tunnels to maximize their survivability, incorporating twists and turns to baffle blast effects and create chokepoints to slow the IDF’s infiltration.
Air superiority needs to be redefined. The IDF assumed air superiority through its investment in exquisite, finite, capital-intensive, manned aircraft, but have been significantly challenged to identify, track, and target the host of small Unmanned Aerial Systems employed by Hamas.
The U.S. Army cannot assume success. The IDF’s overconfidence in their air and subterranean superiority blinded them to a low-tech ground invasion across the border. Adaptation is a critical element of victory that requires innovation and innovative thinking. The U.S. Army will be challenged to keep pace with any adversary that can adapt at a rapid rate on the battlefield.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 28 March 2024, featuring Selina Hayes, Founder and CEO of The Hayes Group International, discussing space investment and operations in Africa — a critical region of focus for our adversaries — and the potential implications for the U.S. Army.

>>>>REMINDER: Army Mad Scientist wants to crowdsource your thoughts on asymmetric warfare — check out our Operational Environment Wicked Problems Writing Contest.

All entries mustaddress the following topic:

We are accepting three types of submissions:

1500-word Non-Fiction Essay
1500-word Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) Story
Hybrid 1500-word submission incorporating a short FICINT vignette, with a Non-Fiction Essay expounding on the threat capabilities described in the vignette

Anyone can participate (Soldiers, Government Civilians, and all global citizens) — Multiple submissions are encouraged!

All entries are due NLT 11:59 pm Eastern on May 16, 2024 at: madscitradoc@gmail.com

Click herefor additional information on this contest — we look forward to your participation!

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related content:

TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92-1, The Changing Character of Warfare: The Urban Operational Environment, April 2020.

Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore

Rapid Adaptation

Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

Death From Above! The Evolution of sUAS Technology and associated podcast, with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.)

The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

Extremism on the Horizon: The Challenges of VEO Innovation, by Colonel Montgomery Erfourth and Dr. Aaron Bazin

Current and Future Operations in Megacities Conference: Observations and Recommendations, facilitated in Tokyo on 16-19 July 2019 — also review this conference’s complete Proceedings, as well as select speakers’ slide decks, presenter biographies, and conference agenda.

Megacities: Future Challenges and Responses, documenting key insights from the Multi Domain Battle (MDB) In Megacities Conference, facilitated at Fort Hamilton, New York, on 3-4 April 2018, as well as the agenda, presenter biographies, slide decks, associated videos of presentations, and conference Proceedings.

War in Ukraine: The Urban Fight is Happening Now and associated podcast, and Ukraine: All Roads Lead to Urban and associated podcast, with MAJ John Spencer (USA-Ret.)

A Chinese Perspective on Future Urban Unmanned Operations

Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

Dense Urban Hackathon – Virtual Innovation

2nd Dense Urban Armored Brigade (DUAB) Personnel Evaluations, by Ed dos Santos, Jr.

Fifth Generation Combat: SubTerranean Ops in Singapore, by the Radio Research Group

Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Brent L. Sterling

92. Know Your Enemy: Army Doctrine Starts with the Threat Feb 29, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: Grizzled readers of the Mad Scientist Laboratory will recall their well-thumbed copies of the forty-year-old FM 100-2 series, The Soviet Army. U.S. Army Soldiers and Leaders from the Cold War-era were expected to know their Soviet adversaries’ Operations and Tactics; Troops, Organization, and Equipment; and Specialized Warfare and Rear Area Support cold — as international tensions and crises could (and frequently did!) escalate to trigger alerts at a moment’s notice, sending units racing forward from their garrisons to occupy their GDP positions… ready and prepared to counter Soviet and their Warsaw Pact allies’ forces advancing across the Inner German Border (IGB)!

Flash forward to today’s Army, where knowledge of the Operational Environment (OE) and the five National Defense Strategy Threats — China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) — remain critical competencies within the Profession of Arms.

In this episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientistpartnered with the Breaking Doctrine podcast from the Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate, U.S. Army Combined Arms Center (CAC), to co-host a fascinating discussion with General Gary M. Brito, Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), Colonel Rich Creed (USA-Ret.), Director, Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate, U.S. Army CAC, and Mr. Ian Sullivan, Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, TRADOC G-2, exploring how understanding the OE and knowing Threat Doctrine remain core Soldier and Leader competencies, underpinning how the Army will fight and win decisively in the 21st century battlespace — Read on!]

[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click hereto listen to the podcast.]

General Gary M. Brito assumed duties as the 18th Commanding General, United States Army TRADOC, on September 8, 2022. He is responsible for building and sustaining a highly trained, disciplined, and fit Army by acquiring the best people, training the most lethal Soldiers, developing the most professional leaders, guiding the Army’s culture, and shaping the future force.

COL Rich Creed was commissioned an Armor officer in 1989 from the U.S. Military Academy and retired from active duty in 2021 after a variety of command and staff assignments from platoon to four-star level. Mr. Creed has been the Director of the Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate at Fort Leavenworth since December 2016, where he helped write and edit the last two versions of the Army’s capstone operations publication, FM 3-0. He was one of the authors and editors of ADP 6-22 (Mission Command: C2 of Army Forces) and ADP 3-13 (Information).

Mr. Ian Sullivan is the Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, TRADOC G-2. He holds a BA from Canisius University in Buffalo, New York, an MA from Georgetown University’s BMW Center for German and European Studies in Washington, D.C., and was a Fulbright Fellow at the Universität Potsdam in Potsdam, Germany. A career civilian intelligence officer, Mr. Sullivan has served with the Office of Naval Intelligence; Headquarters, U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army; the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) at the National Counterterrorism Center; the Central Intelligence Agency; and TRADOC. He is a member of the Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service and was first promoted to the senior civilian ranks in 2013 as a member of the ODNI’s Senior National Intelligence Service.

Army Mad Scientist and Breaking Doctrine sat down with GEN Brito and Messrs. Creed and Sullivan to explore competence in the Army Profession, the importance of Threat Doctrine, and how we can ensure our Army is prepared for the next fight. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

Our doctrine works because it starts with the enemy. It drives our thought processes, our operations, and even our on-going modernization. Competence as an Army professional includes educating at every echelon and instilling a strong baseline understanding of the threats we face: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs).

Aside from Professional Military Education (PME), Soldiers should be expected to rely on their own self-development – taking what was learned in PME and applying it to what is being observed on the battlefield, in the news, or regarding historical accounts. Leveraging historical fiction – Team Yankee or Red Storm Rising, for example – can contextualize the threat, make it more real, and help facilitate understanding.

The Operational Environment (OE) is more complex and dynamic now than thirty years ago because it has more and varied actors – nation states, groups of nation states, trans-national alliances, large non-governmental organizations, VEOs, and super-empowered individuals. This means that all aspects of the DIME spectrum (Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic) move faster and in a more rapid cycle. This necessitates U.S. Leaders who can accept confusion and discomfort and adapt quickly and dynamically.

GEN Brito believes that everyone – all Army components and civilian professionals – needs to be “on board” to embrace this level of development in their respective skillset and a have true understanding of an enemy’s capabilities. For Soldiers that means PME at Basic Officer Leader Course to the Captains Career Course and through the Command and General Staff College.

We will never get it exactly right, but if we’re constantly thinking about it, and studying it, we’ll never be surprised by the adversaries’ thought process. We must be able to close our eyes and visualize the fight over time and space. We cannot afford another failure of imagination.

91. Building Beyond: Preparing the Army for Lift-Off featuring Dr. Olga Bannova Feb 08, 2024

Show notes

[Editor’s Note: As longtime readers of the Army’s Mad Scientist Laboratory know, our adversaries are deploying capabilities to fight the U.S. Joint Force through multiple layers of stand-off in all domains – space, cyber, air, sea, and land. Per the Defense Intelligence Agency‘s Challenges to Security in Space 2022: Space Reliance in an Era of Competition and Expansion:

“Between 2019 and 2021 the combined operational space fleets of China and Russia have grown by approximately 70 percent. This recent and continuing expansion follows a period of growth (2015–2018) where China and Russia had increased their combined satellite fleets by more than 200 percent. The drive to modernize and increase capabilities for both countries is reflected in nearly all major space categories—satellite communications (SATCOM), remote sensing, navigation-related, and science and technology demonstration. Since early 2019, competitor space operations have also increased in pace and scope worldwide, China’s and Russia’s counterspace developments continue to mature, global space services proliferate, and orbital congestion has increased.”

Preserving our advantage in the space domain is critical — a contemporary U.S. Army maneuver Brigade Combat Team (BCT) has over 2,500 pieces of equipment dependent on space-based assets for Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT). This number of dependent systems will only increase as emerging technology on Earth demands increased bandwidth, new orbital infrastructure, niche satellite capabilities, and advanced robotics. Dominance in the space domain is vital to Joint Force and U.S. Army operations.

In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with Dr. Olga Bannova, Director of the Space Architecture Graduate Program, University of Houston, to discuss designing vehicles and habitats for space, how we can use austere environments here on Earth as proving grounds, and what these environments can teach the U.S. Army. — Enjoy!]

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Dr. Olga Bannova, conducts research and design studies that address a variety of topics, including: planning analyses for a broad range of space vehicles, habitats, and systems; inflatable hydroponics laboratory and logistic modules; special design influences and requirements for different gravity conditions in space; and habitat concepts for extreme environments on Earth. She is a corresponding member of International Academy of Astronautics, IAC Space and Society Symposiums coordinator, senior member of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, a Chair of the AIAA Space Architecture Technical Committee, and an elected member of the ASCE’s Executive Committee on Space Engineering and Construction. She recently received 2019 Outstanding Technical Contribution Award from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Aerospace Division. Dr. Bannova earned her PhD from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, in 2016, and Master in Architecture and M.S. in Space Architecture from the University of Houston in 2001 and 2005. She authored Space Architecture Education for Engineers and Architects (Springer, 2016) and Space Architecture: Human Habitats Beyond Planet Earth (DOM Publishers, 2021). Prior to arrival to Houston, she worked as a professional architect in Moscow, Russia, on industrial, office, and healthcare projects. Several of her designs have been built in Moscow city, and in the Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts.

Army Mad Scientistsat down with Dr. Bannova to discuss designing vehicles and habitats for space, how we can use austere environments here on Earth as proving grounds, and what these environments can teach the U.S. Army. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

When astronauts depart Gateway to return to Earth via the Orion spacecraft. / Source: NASA

Space architecture entails designing and building habitable spaces for humans in outer space,ideally for extended periods of time. Mission planning is essential to the design process – understanding the details of the mission (purpose, location, duration) and the required engineering support.

It is critical that systems designed for space integrate perfectly with the needs and ability of the crew, as well as the surrounding environment. Any design mistake can lead to loss of the structure, mission, and human life.

Space architects attempt to replicate space characteristics for testing conducted on Earth. Air-tight facilities are used to test certain systems, such as life support systems, while operations and psychological effects can be tested in isolated or confined environments. Bannova’s lab recently constructed an extended reality facility combining low fidelity mockups with virtual habitat designs to test crew operations.

As the Army looks to operate in varying environments from dense urbanto arcticconditions, systems must be designed through careful mission planning vice modifying or retrofitting current systems. Space conditions can be brutal to system integrity and employment, therefore space architecture concepts for robust structures, wheels, suspension, cargo and crew protection, and weight and payload restrictions can all be applied to Army system design for use in austere environments.

Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 29 February 2024, in collaboration with the Breaking Doctrinepodcast — featuring GEN Gary Brito, Commanding General, Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), Ian Sullivan, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, TRADOC G-2, and Richard Creed, Director, Combined Arms Doctrine Directorate — discussing the importance of threat doctrine, changes in the Operational Environment that drive new doctrine, and strengthening the Army profession by understanding the threat.

If you enjoyed this post, check out the following related Army Mad Scientistcontent:

LSCO, PNT, and the Space Domain, by CPT Matthew R. Bigelow

Space: Challenges and Opportunities

Star Wars 2050 and The Final Frontier: Directed Energy Applications in Outer Space, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Marie Murphy

Beyond Space and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Kara Cunzeman

Space 2035: A Surplus of Uncertainty and a Deficit of Trust, by Maj Rachel Reynolds

Table of Future Technologies: A 360 Degree View Based on Anticipated Availability, by Richard Buchter

… as well as the Dr. Moriba Jah on What Does the Future Hold for the US Military in Space? podcast hosted by our colleagues at Modern War Institute.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post and podcast do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

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