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    Government

    The Convergence – The Army’s Mad Scientist Podcast

    The Convergence is an Army Mad Scientist podcast with a distinct focus on divergent viewpoints, a challenging of assumptions, and insights from thought leaders and subject matter experts. The purpose of “The Convergence” is to explore technological, economic, and societal trends that disrupt the operational environment and to get a diversity of opinions on the character of warfare.

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    Latest Episodes:
    110. Generative AI: The New Ammunition in the Data Arms Race with Ben Van Roo Feb 20, 2025
    Show notes

    [Editor’s Note: Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back Ben Van Roo, recent author of our Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges blog post, to continue our exploration of the transformative potential of Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) — specifically its ability to democratize access across the U.S. Army to the vast reservoirs of Operational Environment information. In ingesting all of the OE Data Integration Network’s (ODIN) content — including the Worldwide Equipment Guide (WEG), Decisive Action Training Environment (DATE) and accompanying Force Structures, the Army Techniques Publication (ATP) 7-100 series, and the Training Circular (TC) 7-100 series — Gen AI offers the potential to respond to conversational queries from individual Soldiers with the TRADOC G-2’s aggregated and authoritative OE knowledge. Operationally, Gen AI could also help accelerate the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) loop, the intelligence cycle, and even kill chains — powerful stuff, indeed…. Read on!] Ben Van Roo is the Co-Founder and CEO of Yurts, a generative AI company partnering with the U.S. Department of Defense to advance mission-critical systems. He holds a PhD in Operations Research and has significant experience developing AI solutions for defense and national security applications. In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with Ben Van Roo to discuss Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI) models, how they can be integrated into secure networks, and how TRADOC can use them to enhance Army training. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation. Classic AI models could provide rudimentary identification abilities, whereas Gen AI is a newer class of modelswith the capability to produce long form documents, generate and critique ideas, and create new images, video, and music. The technology enabling Gen AI is moving at a rapid pace. As soon as a new model is available, competitors and adversaries will use that newer model to upgrade their own, fostering a rapid learning and adaptation cycle. When thinking about the geopolitical implications and competition, there is a very tight timeline of advantagebetween open-source communities, proprietary model vendors, and the U.S. and other countries. Where Gen AI is useful today is plugging into pre-existing systems andaugmenting the processes that already exist. TRADOC’s mission of preparing the Warfighter in basic aspects of readiness, for different environments (e.g., Decisive Action Training Environment [DATE]), understanding our adversaries’ materiel capabilities in the Worldwide Equipment Guide, and much more is a perfect use case for employing the current state of Gen AI technology. While DoD is experimenting with Gen AI in aspects such as computer vision or Course of Action development, it is more suited to bridge the gap between the technology vendors and the Warfighters. The Government lacks what a large venture-backed company with a sole focus on writing Gen AI software can provide. For large organizations like the DoD, within the next 2 to 3 years, the fundamental focus will be on how to bring Gen AI into production— how it’s integrated, where it shouldn’t be, and how management, costs, and analytics will be conducted. In the commercial technology space, generative AI technology will be ubiquitous in 7-10 years. Using Gen AI, the Army has the potential opportunity to rapidly learn and understand the conditions of an evolving Operational Environmentby querying a digital subject matter expert – e.g., the TRADOC G-2’s OE Data Integration Network (ODIN) authoritative digital resource — to access and process TRADOC’s corpus of relevant Army Techniques Publications (ATPs) and training circulars (7-100 series), insights, and intelligence reports – via plain language queries. In an operational setting, Gen AI could help accelerate the pace of our OODA loop(Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act), shortening the cycles between Observation and taking Action – affecting everything from the intelligence cycle to the kill chain itself. If you enjoyed this post, check out Ben Van Roo‘s previous Mad Scientist Laboratorypost — Unlocking TRADOC’s Potential with GenAI: Opportunities and Challenges Read TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with authoritative information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including: Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link). Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P. Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access). Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs). Then review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content exploring the transformative power of AI — spanning the gamut of potential applications: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Trends Takeaways Learned about the Future of the AI Battlefield and associated information paper Artificial Intelligence: An Emerging Game-changer Artificial Intelligence: Shaping the Future of Biological-Chemical Warfare, by Jared Kite Training Transformed: AI and the Future Soldier, by proclaimed Mad Scientist SGM Kyle J. Kramer The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 1) and associated podcast, with LtCol Joe Buffamante, USMC Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch and associated podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. Billy Barry and LTC Blair Wilcox Rise of Artificial Intelligence: Implications to the Fielded Force, by John W. Mabes III Integrating Artificial Intelligence into Military Operations, by Dr. James Mancillas “Own the Night”and the associated Modern War Institute podcast, with proclaimed Mad Scientist Bob Work Bringing AI to the Joint Force and associated podcast, with Jacqueline Tame, Alka Patel, and Dr. Jane Pinelis Thoughts on AI and Ethics… from the Chaplain Corps The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast, with Dr. Billy Barry, USAWC Gen Z is Likely to Build Trusting Relationships with AI, by COL Derek Baird Hey, ChatGPT, Help Me Win this Contract! and associated podcast, with LTC Robert Solano Chatty Cathy, Open the Pod Bay Doors: An Interview with ChatGPT and associated podcast The Future of Learning: Personalized, Continuous, and Accelerated The Guy Behind the Guy: AI as the Indispensable Marshal, by Brady Moore and Chris Sauceda AI Enhancing EI in War, by MAJ Vincent Dueñas The Human Targeting Solution: An AI Story, by CW3 Jesse R. Crifasi Bias and Machine Learning An Appropriate Level of Trust… How does the Army – as part of the Joint force – Build and Employ Teams to Compete, Penetrate, Disintegrate, and Exploit our Adversaries in the Future? Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

    Full show notes at the publisher

    109. Ghosts in the Battlespace: The UAP Threat with the James Gang Jan 23, 2025
    Show notes

    “We have craft that defy physics as we know it and are moving at speeds that are at least a hundred times faster than anything a human or robot… can produce on the planet.”

    [Editor’s Note: Today’s The Convergence podcast welcomes back our very own James Gang — proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — discussing a topic featured prominently in recent news stories and Congressional testimony: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, or UAPs, now referred to by Drs. Giordano and Canton as Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena.

    The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) issued a preliminary assessment to Congress several years ago. This assessment documented the findings of the Department of Defense’s UAP Task Force (UAPTF) and the ODNI National Intelligence Manager for Aviation — focusing on reports that involved UAP largely witnessed firsthand by military aviators and collected from systems considered to be reliable. These reports described incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021 — 144 reports originated from U.S. Government sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors. This preliminary assessment states:

    “Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.”

    UAPs represent a currently unknown aspect of the Operational Environment — all the more troubling, given the possibility that they could be foreign adversarial systems, operating freely within U.S. territorial spaces. Drs. Giordano and Canton dismiss the “woo” factor often associated with this topic, describe what we do know about UAPs, and lay out three recommendations to better understand these phenomena — Enjoy!]

    Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Giordano is Pellegrino Center Professor in the Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry; Chief of the Neuroethics Studies Program; and Chair of the Subprogram in Military Medical Ethics at Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC. Dr. Giordano is a Bioethicist of the Defense Medical Ethics Center at the Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences; Distinguished Stockdale Fellow in Science, Technology, and Ethics at the United States Naval Academy; Senior Fellow in Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI; Senior Science Advisory Fellow of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Joint Staff / J-39, The Pentagon; Chair Emeritus of the Neuroethics Project of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Brain Initiative; and serves as Director of the Institute for Biodefense Research, a federally funded Washington, DC, think tank dedicated to addressing emerging issues at the intersection of science, technology and national defense. He previously served as Donovan Group Senior Fellow, U.S. Special Operations Command; member of the Neuroethics, Legal, and Social Issues Advisory Panel of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA); and Task Leader of the Working Group on Dual-Use of the EU-Human Brain Project.

    Dr. Giordano is the author of 340 peer-reviewed publications, 7 books, and 45 governmental reports on science, technology, and biosecurity, and is an elected member of the European Academy of Science and Arts, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine (UK), and a Fulbright Professorial Fellow. A former U.S. Naval officer, he held designations as an aerospace physiologist and research psychologist, and served with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps.

    Proclaimed Mad Scientist Dr. James Canton is a global futurist, social scientist, author, and strategic advisor. As a former Apple Computer executive and high-tech entrepreneur, he has been insightfully forecasting the key trends and technologies that have shaped our world, including AI-nano-bio-IT-neuroquantum-cloud. The Economist recognizes him as one of the leading global futurists. He has advised three White House Administrations, the DoD, Intelligence Community, and over 100 companies over 30 years. Dr. Canton is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank he founded in 1990 that advises business and government.

    Dr. Canton is the author of Future Smart, The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the Next Twenty Years, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations Will Transform Business in the 21st Century. Dr. Canton has been a lecturer at Stanford University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, New York University, the U.S. Army and Naval War Colleges, and the Joint Special Operations University. He has held appointments at Singularity University at NASA, the Kellogg School of Management, MIT’s Media Lab, EU, the Potomac Institute, and served on the International Advisory Council, Singapore Economic Development Board, and been an advisor to the National Science and Technology Council and the U.S. Departments of State, Defense, and Health and Human Services.

    In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sits down with our “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — to discuss Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAPs) and the potential threat they pose. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our conversation:

    • What were once called Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, or UAPs, are now referred to as Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena as they have been witnessed in multiple dimensions and domains, including the sea. They operate at speeds that seem to defy known physics, and their origins and attribution are currently unknown.
    • There is an abundance of evidence to support the UAP claims, much of which comes from highly credentialed individuals in the Department of Defense and Government at-large. The corroboration of these accounts further cements the veracity that “something” is encroaching on sovereign spaces, but what that “something” is – and what its intent is – remains a mystery.
    • There are various potential explanations for these phenomena – ranging from the plausible to the absurd. More sober possibilities include field tests by our own Government or friendly governments that haven’t been made public, adversaries or industry showcasing new technology, or experimentation by rogue actors.
    • Regardless of the owner – whether that be Nation State, Government, industry, or rogue actor – the capabilities of these phenomena represent a critical and potential threat to our national security. The craft are able to maneuver in ways that significantly outpace our own technology and capabilities – as well as those of our allies and partners – and have been witnessed around critical national security assets.
    • Preparing for these potential threats is difficult, due to the lack of information surrounding them. Giordano and Canton provide three recommendations to help address the nature of these phenomena:

    1) The appointment of a subject matter expert on the dimensionality of these events. This individual should be able to work within a whole-of-government approach that extends internationally.

    2) Increased transparency of any and all information (excluding classified information) that are relevant to public health and safety.

    3) The creation of a multi-disciplinary committee that sustains oversight on actionable information acquisition, analysis, and provision of a strengthened relationship between the “boots on the ground” investigators and whole-of-nation assets – to include being read on with national security clearances.

    If you enjoyed this post, check out the following previous blog posts and podcasts from our Mad Scientist “James Gang”:

    Threat #49: I Think There’s Trouble Brewin’ and associated podcast

    One Brain Chip, Please! Neuro-AI with two of the Maddest Scientists and associated podcast

    Review our TRADOC Pamphlet 525-92, The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

    Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the Operational Environment and how our adversaries fight, including:

    Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

    Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

    Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

    Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, 4QFY24, and 1QFY25 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).


    108. Soldier Dominance and Battlefield Primacy Dec 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Soldier Dominance and Battlefield Primacy

    “What we’ve got to think about is, how do we make our Soldiers more effective, how do we maintain that battlefield primacy for our commanders, for our Soldiers, and for our units.”

    [Editor’s Note: At the conclusion of Ian Sullivan‘s insightful blog post from almost four years ago, we were provided with a sage and cautionary admonition:

    “… I think it is important to ask ourselves which approach are we [the U.S. Army] following on our path to modernization? Are we are trying to revolutionize our approach to warfare, or are we simply trying to modernize a force based on yesterday’s ideas? Is our preferred way of war capable of standing up to our pacing threats’ transformations, or do we need to refine it? ... We must answer the question “Are we doing enough fast enough?” — but we also must inexorably link that answer to an even more fundamental question: “Are we building the right force, with the right people to prevail over adversaries who have thought long and hard about how to defeat us?”

    In our latest episode of the Army Mad Scientist’s The Convergence podcast, we sat down with proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Scott Shaw, Director, Maneuver Capabilities Development and Integration Directorate (MCDID), to learn how the Army Futures Command’s presence at the Maneuver Center of Excellence (MCoE), Fort Moore, Georgia, is accomplishing this challenge — helping transform the Army’s maneuver capabilities to ensure our war-winning future readiness — Read on!]

    [If the podcast dashboard above is not rendering correctly for you, please click hereto listen to the podcast.]

    COL Scott Shaw, U.S. Army, is a graduate from the University of Arkansas in August 1996 and was commissioned as an Infantry officer. Prior to his current assignment as the Director, MCDID, COL Shaw was Assistant Chief of Staff, G3, I Corps and Joint Base Lewis McChord. COL Shaw also commanded the U.S. Army Asymmetric Warfare Group, Ft Meade, Maryland, from July 2019 to the unit’s deactivation in May 2021.

    COL Shaw has held two combat commands — as the Commander, Headquarters and Headquarters Company, 2nd Brigade, 10th Mountain Division deploying to Kabul, Afghanistan, and as Commander, Company A, 2nd Battalion, 14th Infantry Regiment deploying to Baghdad, Iraq. He has had three additional combat tours in Iraq, plus another in Afghanistan, and has served abroad in the Sinai in Egypt, in Kuwait, and in Korea. COL Shaw holds three Master’s degrees – Military History (With Honors) from Norwich University, Military Art and Science from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and Strategic Studies (Distinguished Graduate) from the Marine Corps War College.

    COL Shaw has also been a frequent guest of The Convergence podcast and is a proclaimed Mad Scientist.

    Army Mad Scientist sat down with COL Shaw to talk about the Maneuver CDID, how it supports Army innovation, and how you can contribute to its mission. The following bullet points highlight the key takeaways from our conversation:

    • A capabilities development and integration directorate (CDID) is the Army Futures Command’s lead for an Army force modernization proponent. The Maneuver CDID (MCDID), specifically, determines and develops future force capabilities and future infantry, armor, and robotic requirements. This allows for a trained and ready maneuver force that will be fully integrated in Army Combined and Joint operations in order to maintain the battlefield primacy of our Soldiers and the formations in which they fight. The MCDID works to deliver the maneuver force of 2030 and design the maneuver force of 2040.
    • A major focus for the MCDID is “transformation in contact” – evaluating and refining technologies for use in combat through troop rotations and deployments. This ensures that requirements are captured and doctrine is written so Soldiers can fight a transform-in-contact-organized, equipped, and led Brigade Combat Team (BCT) across the DOTMLPF-P capabilities spectrum. Other initiatives include improved strategic and tactical mobility, integrating robotics, and simplifying command and control for all BCTs.
    • As concepts and technology mature within the next 10 years, the MCDID will shift its focus to other initiatives, such asformation based layered protection, treating the squad as a system vice just Soldier load, and several signature modernization efforts. In addition to these efforts, an important initiative is captured under the situational awareness strategy which includes new night vision capabilities for the close combat force and the close combat support force.
    • Beyond 10 years, the MCDID is striving to “never again trade blood for first contact.” Integrating robotics further into formations for robotic-enabled maneuver is how Soldiers will be relieved of dull, dirty, and dangerous tasks so they can focus on what humans do best – making ethics-based decisions.
    • All Soldiers, Commanders, and Leaders have the opportunity to be a part of the innovation and modernization process! The MCDID is actively soliciting ideas, suggestions, and comments from the field. Many divisions and installations have innovation efforts with direct and regular connection to the MCDID. This is a Mad Scientist call to action!

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 16 January 2025, when Army Mad Scientist’s own “James Gang” — Dr. James Giordano and Dr. James Canton — returns to discuss Unidentified Anomalous (vice Aerial) Phenomena, or UAPs, and their associated National Security implications!

    If you enjoyed today’s podcast and blog post, check out the TRADOC G-2’s new OE Assessment — The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

    Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:

    Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

    Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

    Our Iran Landing Zone, including the latest Iran OE Watch articles, as well as the Iran Quick Reference Guide and the Iran Passive Defense Manual (both require a CAC to access).

    Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24, 3QFY24, and 4QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

    Then check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:

    “Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel by Ian Sullivan

    China’s PLA Modernization through the DOTMLPF-P Lens, by Dr. Jacob Barton

    Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

    Other People’s Wars: The US Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts and associated podcast, with Brent L. Sterling

    The Future of Ground Warfareand associated podcast, with Proclaimed Mad Scientist COL Scott Shaw

    The Case for Restructuring the Department of Defense to Fight in the 21st Century, by LTC Christopher J. Heatherly

    Innovation at the Edge and associated podcast

    Strategic Latency Unleashed!, Going on the Offensive in the Fight for the Future, and associated podcast with former Undersecretary of the Navy (and proclaimed Mad Scientist) James F. “Hondo” Geurts and Dr. Zachary S. Davis

    Tactical Innovation: The Missing Piece to Enable Army Futures Command, by LTC Jim Armstrong

    Mission Engineering and Prototype Warfare: Operationalizing Technology Faster to Stay Ahead of the Threat by The Strategic Cohort at the U.S. Army Tank Automotive Research, Development, and Engineering Center (TARDEC).

    Innovation Isn’t Enough: How Creativity Enables Disruptive Strategic Thinking, by Heather Venable

    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC)


    107. Hybrid Intelligence: Sustaining Adversary Overmatch with Dr. Billy Barry, LTC Blair Wilcox, & TIM Oct 25, 2024
    Show notes

    [Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, on 6-7 November 2024 — additional information on this event and the links to the conference agenda and registration site may be found at the end of this post (below). In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist welcomes back Dr. Billy Barry, who is joined by LTC Blair Wilcox from the Army War College (AWC) to discuss their recent case study using their “AI Study Buddy” — TIM — to pass an AWC class, explore how hybrid intelligence can augment human cognition, and address how AI could be used to amplify learning during Army wargames — Enjoy!] Dr. Billy Barry is a Professor of Emerging Technology and Principal Strategist of the Artificial Intelligence/Intelligence Augmentation (AI/IA) Program for the Center for Strategic Leadership at the United States Army War College. Before working at the Army War College, Dr. Barry was a visiting professor of Philosophy and Just War Theory at the United States Military Academy at West Point. A pioneer in Human-AI/IA teams, he is the first to introduce AI-powered intelligent augmentation androids, robots, digital virtual beings, and strategic advisors as teaching and learning partners in civilian university and Professional Military Education classrooms. A sought-after TEDx and international keynote speaker, Dr. Barry’s influence extends to Fortune 500 companies and global leadership symposiums and conferences. His current research interest centers on non-invasive brain-computer interfaces, driving the conversation on ethical technology interactions. His contributions to academia and industry establish him as a leading authority on the future of human relationships with emerging technology. Blair Wilcox is a lieutenant colonel, U.S. Army Strategist (FA59), and Assistant Professor currently assigned as the Deputy Director in the Strategic Landpower and Futures Group in the Center for Strategic Leadership at the U.S. Army War College. Before his current assignment, he taught in the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy from 2016-2020. His first functional assignment as a Strategist was at V Corps where he was the lead author for the Corps Subordinate Campaign Plan and Operational Approach. LTC Wilcox helped stand up the Corps, deployed with the Corps during crisis, and served as the Chief of Plans during his final year in the G5. Army Mad Scientist sat down with Dr. Barry and LTC Wilcox to discuss their fascinating use case of pairing with an artificial intelligence (AI) to pass an AWC course, how hybrid intelligence can amplify a Soldier’s cognitive abilities, and how AI is a wargaming game changer. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation: Hybrid intelligence takes the concept of human/AI teaming to a whole new level, requiring both sides of the partnership to accomplish a task.One major benefit of hybrid intelligence is the ability for the machine to continuously learn through its interactions with humans, as opposed to static AI which has a pre-determined and finite base of knowledge. The application of hybrid intelligence will be extremely useful to the Army and Joint Force at the strategic level – corps through theater. Trustin machine augmentation to support decision making must become standard for Senior Leaders. The strategic application of hybrid intelligence into commanders’ decision making will help them achieve decision dominance faster. As a civilian with no military experience, Dr. Barry illustrated the power of hybrid intelligence by participating in and completing a seminar course at the U.S. Army War College as a student with AI support from his machine, TIM(Technically Impossible Maneuver). While both Dr. Barry and TIM had limitations throughout the course, Dr. Barry was a “super student” – interacting dynamically with his AI to achieve a higher level of cognition that would not have been achieved otherwise — with TIM‘s instantaneous access to course material and relevant historical data prior to the class as well as during class discussions. The Army War College classroom was a useful space to see how hybrid intelligence could work, as it mirrored the same type of environment with military senior leaders that would be found at any strategic-level command. If trust could be achieved in the classroom, it can likely be achieved inside a corps and theater-level command’s staff with the replicated processes. TIM’s role during wargames provided players the ability to consult with an AIthat knows and can recall the specific rules and mechanisms of the game universe, in real time, to optimize game play. TIM was beneficial for players to achieve quick analyses on the science of war, but also helped them achieve a greater appreciation for the art of war, as well [Editor’s Note: check out the associated LSCO implications of this in the “The Art vs. the Science of War” section on page 24 of the TRADOC G-2′s latest Operational Environment]. In the next few years, Dr. Barry and LTC Wilcox envision building an AI-enabled strategic advisor that can graduate with a student partner as an augmented pair through the Army War College. The second phase is to send this concept to BSAP, Basic Strategic Arts Program, to be a functional AI-enabled strategic advisor for Functional Area 59 (FA59) Strategists. In 10 years, it will be ideally networked throughout various Army commands and staffs at the strategic level to quickly coordinate, collaborate, share, and advise Army Senior Leaders with authoritative, crafted, and curated knowledge. The way for the Army to achieve dominance and maintain cognitive advantage is by employing hybrid intelligence-enabled decision making that ensures U.S. adversary-overmatch. Dr. Barry will address how hybrid intelligence tools like TIM can augment and amplify learning during wargames and Professional Military Education in the Next Gen Wargaming – New Technological Advances panel discussion on Day 2 of our Game On! Wargaming in the Operational Environment conference on November 7th in Washington, DC. — Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society cordially invite you to attend: What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment When: 6-7 November 2024 Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057 Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military. ***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!*** Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to madscitradoc@gmail.com In the meantime, check out Dr. Barry‘s The AI Study Buddy at the Army War College (Part 2) and associated podcast … and the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content: “Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Parts 1 and 2) Whipping Wargaming into NATO SHAPE and associated podcast, with COL Arnel David Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates Taking the Golf Out of Gamingand associated podcast, with Sebastian Bae Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associatedpodcast with Andrew Olson Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts Oneand Two) Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Futureand associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).

    Full show notes at the publisher

    106. Whipping Wargaming Into NATO SHAPE with COL Arnel David Oct 17, 2024
    Show notes

    [Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, on 6-7 November 2024 — additional information on this event and the link to our registration site may be found at the end of this post (below).

    In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist welcomes back COL Arnel P. David, a frequent contributor to the Mad Scientist Laboratory and returning podcast guest, to learn how NATO is injecting new technologies into wargaming to integrate and build staff proficiency across the Alliance’s 32 member nations’ militaries — Enjoy!]

    [If the podcast dashboard above is not rendering correctly for you, please click hereto listen to the podcast.]

    COL Arnel P. David is the Director of the Strategic Initiatives Group at NATO Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE). He is a distinguished military graduate from Valley Forge Military College, completed a Master of Arts from the University of Oklahoma, a Master of Military Art and Science in the Local Dynamics of War Scholars Program at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, and is a distinguished graduate of the Joint Advanced Warfighting School (JAWS) where he was a National Defense University Scholar and completed a Master of Science in Joint Campaign Planning and Strategy. COL David is a PhD candidate with King’s College London. He is the cofounder of Fight Club International, a global gaming network seeking to improve the efficacy of warfighting across the spectrum of conflict and competition — find information on Fight Club‘s current online Tactical Decision Game at the end of this post.

    Army Mad Scientist sat down with COL David to discuss his views on wargaming in the U.S. Army and NATO, how technology is shaping its evolution, and how to push it to the forefront of Professional Military Education (PME). The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

    • NATO SHAPE recently stood up a wargaming department. They are creating and prototyping games at the strategic level that can incorporate many of the 32 member countries as well as counter-terrorism games.This nascent team is just beginning to build out its wargaming capability and is looking for experts to contribute to its mission.
    • The aforementioned wargaming department is crowdsourcing input to help better understand “what Multi-Domain Operations(MDO) looks like.” They plan to take the information they collect and use it to construct games that will help explore the crowdsourcing prompt. Additionally, the best ideas will be evaluated and briefed out to Senior U.S. Army and NATO leaders.
    • A mixed-method approach to wargaming is best. The wargame itself is not the end state; rather, the post-game analysis and the lessons learned from multiple iterations is what is important. For wargames that focus on the Balkans, NATO incorporated large-language models (LLMs) to create psychometric profiles on different ethnic groups in the region to help better understand customs, traditions, and norms to be played in a contested-narratives environment within the game.This not only allowed them to test out military operations, but also to test out specific narratives to see what is effective and what is not in countering an adversary’s information operations.
    • Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not supplanting human expertise in wargaming, but rather allowing much of the preparation to be completed more quickly. Orders of battle, rules, and doctrine can be loaded into the system and incorporated instantly, allowing more iterations of games to run and reducing the time spent during games discussing semantics and administration.
    • There are still significant challenges in incorporating advanced technology onto secure systems.However, there is urgency to seek solutions as potential adversaries are already working toward the same end. Ceding this advantage would allow them to gain more out of wargaming and potentially adapt their fighting more quickly and more effectively.
    • Wargaming is an effective way to improve critical thinking and decision-making skills. A combination of conventional, table-top games with physical pieces and cards and digital counterparts might be the best solution to approaching the margins of learning from wargaming. This will require a conscious effort from Senior Leaders to push for wargaming as a part of PME at all levels, as well as a change in mindset from current wargamers to accept technological innovation.

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 25 October 2024, when we will feature returning guest, Dr. Billy Barry, and LTC Blair Wilcox from the Army War College (AWC) discussing their recent case study using their “AI Study Buddy” T.I.M., to pass an AWC class, how hybrid intelligence (HI) can augment human cognition, and how AI could be used to amplify Army wargames.

    Fight Club’s new Online Tactical Decision Game (TDG), ‘Operation Parry’, recently went live on the Fight Clubwebsite. The game — played via the submission of text-based orders — features a mixed Estonian-United Kingdom Task Force launching a spoiling attack on a Donovian Tactical Assembly Area.

    Orders submitted by each player will be executed in-game against a single ‘AI Plan,’ and a winner declared based on final score and tactical outcome.

    The scenario has also been created to provide an example of an ad-hoc multinational formation (Estonian Mechanized Infantry with British Recon and Maneuver Support), operating under challenging conditions.

    Simulated tactical problems such as this can provide a good opportunity to bring together allied forces within a virtual environment to familiarize tactics, doctrine, communications protocols, terminology, and other critical interoperability factors.

    Fight Clubis exploring a range of interoperability-based simulation projects; aiming to develop low-cost resources that can be used ahead of combined arms exercises in the field. It seeks to enable units to ‘pre-familiarize’ with foreign partner formations in detail, enabling smoother, more efficient maneuvers out in the real world.

    The Operation Parry TDG will be demonstrated at Game Night scheduled on the Day 1 of Army Mad Scientist’s Game On! Wargaming in the Operational Environment conference on November 6th in Washington, DC (more below).

    We hope today’s podcast and post piqued your interest regarding how wargaming can inform us about the Operational Environment and support Professional Military Education. Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society invite you to learn more about this topic at our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational EnvironmentConference.

    What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment

    When: 6-7 November 2024

    Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057

    Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military.

    ***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!***

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to madscitradoc@gmail.com

    In the meantime, check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content:

    Wargaming: A Company-Grade Perspective, by CPT Spencer D. H. Bates

    Taking the Golf Out of Gamingand associated podcast, with Sebastian Bae

    “Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Part 1)

    Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associatedpodcast with Andrew Olson

    Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat

    Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts Oneand Two)

    Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

    Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

    Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Futureand associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges

    The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

    Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast

    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).


    105. Taking the Golf Out of Gaming with Sebastian Bae Oct 03, 2024
    Show notes

    [Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist continues our series of blog posts and podcasts in the run up to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference, co-hosted with the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, on 6-7 November 2024 — additional information on this event and the link to our registration site may be found at the end of this post (below).

    In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist interviewed Sebastian Bae, Senior Wargame Designer at CNA, adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University teaching graduate wargame design, and designer of the phenomenally popular Littoral Commander: Indo-Pacific — the single most cited game in the host of responses we received from our Calling All Wargamers crowdsourcing exercise last spring. In this fascinating conversation, Mr. Bae explores how wargaming can help better prepare our Soldiers and Leaders for a complex Operational Environment — Read on!]

    Sebastian Bae is a Research Scientist and Senior Game Designer at CNA’s Gaming & Integration program — working in wargaming, emerging technologies, the future of warfare, and strategy and doctrine for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. He is the game designer for Littoral Commander: Indo-Pacific, a commercially available, professional military educational wargame exploring peer conflict and future technologies. Sebastian also serves as an adjunct assistant professor at the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, where he teaches a graduate course on designing educational wargames. He has taught similar courses at the U.S. Naval Academy and the U.S. Marine Corps Command & Staff College. He is also the faculty advisor to the Georgetown University Wargaming Society, the Co-Chair of the Military Operations Research Society Wargaming Community of Practice, and a former Non-Resident Fellow at the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Creativity. Previously, he served six years in the Marine Corps infantry, leaving as a Sergeant. He deployed to Iraq in 2009.

    Army Mad Scientist sat down with Sebastian Bae to discuss his views on wargaming in the military, his thoughts on the various technology evolutions, and how the Department of Defense can better harness this unique tool. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

    • “Wargaming is sort of like golf –it is often the refuge of the “wealthy” — the senior leaders — and it does not get lots of play at different echelons typically.” Wargaming capabilities are rarely pushed down to the lowest echelons and tactical level. They tend to be concentrated at the Combatant Command-level, creating a unique challenge as the games often only serve a specific viewpoint on any given problem.
    • Integrating different types of wargames throughout different echelons allows Soldiers to practice decision making at all levels of their careers.This is critical because a Soldier’s decision space and perspective changes as they move from echelon to echelon. Ideally, the games should evolve as the Soldier moves up through their career path to represent the changes in their decision-making requirements.
    • Establishing a wargaming ecosystem consisting of both microgames and larger wargames creates an opportunity to explore topics outside of the typical kinetic, combat-centric wargames, such as Medical Services and CASEVAC, water distribution, and maintenance, that may be better suited for smaller games that can be played in 20-minutes. Additionally, a wargaming ecosystem with microgames provides additional opportunities to expose younger Soldiers to wargaming. Increasing wargaming literacy across the force enhances the quality of larger, kinetic games as the player pool improves.
    • Certain aspects of wargaming can benefit from advanced technology now available. However, integrating new technology into government or military wargaming comes with inherent limitations. Innovation with technology is difficult due to security risks, network incompatibility, and trademark, copywrite, and intellectual property constraints.
    • Collaboration between the professional and commercial sectors of gaming is possible with effective processes and exploration, specifically in publishing and education.The military can utilize commercial game publishers to produce games on a larger scale that can be proliferated throughout the force at different echelons.
    • Sebastian Bae’s educational wargame, Littoral Commander – Indo Pacific, began as a project during the COVID pandemic to inform the broader force about future force design and multi-domain concepts at scale. Over time,the game has become a critical part of education across the Joint force and partner nations.Originally designed for the Marine Corps, the Air Force uses Littoral Commander to teach their six-step dynamic targeting process — “find,” “fix,” “track,” “target,” “engage,” and “assess” or F2T2EA — while a German Officer training at the Marine Corp’s Expeditionary Warfare School has adapted the game to create a German version now utilized throughout the German Army.

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence podcast on 17 October 2024, when we explore how NATO is employing wargaming to integrate and build staff proficiency across the Alliance’s 32-member nations’ militaries.

    We hope this post has piqued your interest regarding how wargaming can inform us about the Operational Environment and support Professional Military Education. Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society want to invite you to learn more about this topic at our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational EnvironmentConference.

    What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment

    When: 6-7 November 2024

    Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057

    Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military.

    ***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!***

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to madscitradoc@gmail.com

    In the meantime, check out the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content:

    “Best of” Calling All Wargamers Insights (Part 1)

    Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO, Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones, and associatedpodcast with Andrew Olson

    Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat

    Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts Oneand Two)

    Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

    Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

    Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Futureand associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges

    The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

    Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast

    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).


    104. Achieving Victory & Ensuring Civilian Safety in Conflict Zones with Andrew Olson Sep 19, 2024
    Show notes

    [Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist first introduced Andrew Olson to our community of action with his insightful submission to our Calling All Wargamerscrowdsourcing effort entitled Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO. In today’s episode of The Convergence podcast, we sit down with Mr. Olson to learn more about CHMR — now a DoD priority with the implementation of DoDI 3000.17 on 21 December 2023 — and how incorporating it into the Army’s wargaming activities can help our Leaders understand how it “supports U.S. national security interests… furthering strategic objectives to achieve long-term strategic success, enhancing the effectiveness and legitimacy of military operations, and demonstrating moral leadership.” CHMR helps ensure we retain the moral high ground when executing military operations, are more precise with our application of lethal force, and are more effective at the operational level — all essential components of achieving victory — Enjoy!]

    Andrew Olsonis an Associate Research Analyst at CNA, specializing in wargaming. He has experience with a variety of educational and analytical approaches, with a particular interest in wargaming policy challenges, climate change wargames, and emerging technologies wargames. He has facilitated wargames for the National Academies, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, Pew Charitable Trusts, U.S. State Department, and the Joint Staff, among others. Prior to joining CNA, Mr. Olson worked for the Department of State examining technology cooperation challenges. He has managed several print publications, including the Science and Technology section of the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, and served as lead researcher and lab manager for a biological research lab examining the genetic foundations of empathy. Mr. Olson holds a Master of Science in foreign service from Georgetown University and Bachelor of Arts degrees in biology and political science from Westmont College in Santa Barbara, California.

    Army Mad Scientist sat down with Andrew Olson to discuss CHMR, its evolution within wargames, and its impact on Army planning. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

    • Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) is not a constraint – it is how we win. Effective CHMR is a part of how the U.S. can achieve its strategic and operational outcomes. Wargaming provides Leaders with the opportunity of exploring unfamiliar scenarios in a fail-safe environment. Future conflicts are likely to include the possibility of civilian harm – integrating CHMR into wargaming is essential in allowing our decision-makers the space to understand the full consequences of their decisions and actions.
    • CHMR is not a single inject to tack on at the end of a wargame – it must be a consistent approach that is incorporated into the development of commanders’ guidance, mission planning, courses of action, and targeting plans. Diffusing CHMR throughout every step of a wargame forces every player to account for civilian harm in decision-making at all levels and steps of mission planning and execution. The importance does not fall on CHMR simply being injected into every step of a wargame, but in making informed decisions towards a strategic outcome, of which CHMR is a part.
    • The wargaming community is currently grappling with a form of “systems thinking” – how to deal with cascading effects, how to think about interconnected digital and electrical environments, and how to understand the information environment. Unintended consequences resulting in civilian harm are possible due to the interconnectedness of many “systems.”
    • Challenges presented in Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) — communications disruptions, volume and speed of targets, logistics, and distance — all play into CHMR, making it a critical aspect of operations. Although CHMR must be a priority regardless of adversary actions or thinking, adversaries in LSCO are likely to exploit instances of civilian harm and the associated disinformation opportunities that arise.
    • CHMR doesn’t prevent us from taking military actions — it means we consider the risks to civilians that exist and work to mitigate them where possible. That is a part of our theory of victory and additionally helps us become more effective on the operational level. “It is far better to hit the target that we wanted and the thing that is in fact a high value target, rather than a civilian fishing boat – we shouldn’t think about CHMR as a constraint, rather as a next level of precision.“

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, when we sit down with Sebastian Bae, Senior Game Designer at CNA’s Gaming Program and wargame design instructor at Georgetown University’s Security Studies Program, to discuss how wargaming can help prepare our Leaders for a complex Operational Environment.

    Army Mad Scientist and the Georgetown University Wargaming Society want to invite you to our Game On! Wargaming & The Operational Environment Conference.

    What: An in-person conference to explore Wargaming and how it can help the Army better understand the Operational Environment

    When: 6-7 November 2024

    Where: The Healey Family Student Center, Georgetown University, 3700 Tondorf Road, Washington, DC 20057

    Why: To explore new wargaming methods, new ways to incorporate learning into Professional Military Education, and have an open dialogue with wargamers inside and outside the military.

    ***In order to attend, you must register through Eventbrite — click here now to reserve your seat — access will be limited to registered attendees only!***

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for conference updates and forward any questions you may have to madscitradoc@gmail.com

    In the meantime, check out Andrew Olson‘s submission to our Calling All Wargamers crowdsourcing effort — Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) Considerations in Wargaming LSCO — as well as the following Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming related content:

    Brian Train on Wargaming Irregular and Urban Combat

    Live from D.C., it’s Fight Night (Parts One and Two) and associated podcasts (Parts Oneand Two)

    Would You Like to Play a Game? Wargaming as a Learning Experience and Key Assumptions Check and “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan, by Ian Sullivan

    Using Wargames to Reconceptualize Military Power, by proclaimed Mad Scientist Caroline Duckworth

    Gaming the System: How Wargames Shape our Futureand associated podcast, with guest panelists Ian Sullivan, Mitchell Land, LTC Peter Soendergaard, Jennifer McArdle, Becca Wasser, Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn, Sebastian Bae, Dan Mahoney, and Jeff Hodges

    The Storm After the Flood virtual wargame scenario, video, notes, and Lessons Learned presentation and video, presented by proclaimed Mad Scientists Dr. Gary Ackerman and Doug Clifford, The Center for Advanced Red Teaming, University at Albany, SUNY

    Gamers Building the Future Force and associated podcast

    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).


    103. On the Ground and In the Air in Ukraine with Wolfgang Hagarty Sep 05, 2024
    Show notes

    “I don’t think America, or the West in general, is prepared in any sort of way to fight a static war like we’re seeing over there in Ukraine.”

    [Editor’s Note: One of the twelve key conditions driving the Operational Environment (OE) in the next ten years is its increased lethality. According to the TRADOC G-2‘s recently published The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations:

    “LSCO will be increasingly lethal due to the intersection of sensor ubiquity, battlefield automation, precision strike, and massed fires.”

    We’ve seen an increase in the production, employment, and success of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) on the battlefield in recent years. These systems were integral components of the Azeri victory in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War – specifically the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli Harop – and are proving vital in the on-going Russo-Ukrainian war. Indeed, during this latter conflict, the ever evolving Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)/Counter-UAS (C-UAS) fight has led to rapid adaptations on both sides as they seek to achieve battlefield advantage. Yet any advantage achieved is fleeting — as observed by Daniel Patt, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, “The peak efficiency of a new weapon system is only about two weeks before countermeasures emerge.”

    In our latest episode of Army Mad Scientist’s The Convergence podcast, we sat down with Wolfgang Hagarty to learn first-hand about the on-going war in Ukraine, its rapidly evolving UAS/C-UAS fight, and the overarching impacts of technological innovation on the changing character of warfare — Enjoy!]

    Wolfgang Hagarty — a United States Marine Corps veteran — joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) in 2022 as an intelligence officer. He took part in the UAF’s Kharkiv offensive as well as the Kherson offensive. He became a team leader and focused primarily on the UAS/C-UAS fight as well as Electronic Warfare (EW) and counter-EW.

    Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Hagarty to talk about his experiences fighting in Ukraine, his opinions on the rise of UAS, and his thoughts on the evolution of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

    • First-Person View (FPV) drones have become a very cost-effective way for Ukraine to achieve precision strikes. Their ubiquity on the battlefield initially arose from Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells. The UAF soon realized dismounted infantry teams could find and finish Russian targets with precision strikes using fewer drones than conventional artillery firing masses of ordnance.
    • To counter Russian reconnaissance UAS, like the larger Orlan-10and -30, the Ukrainians would identify the systems through direction finding means and pass that information on to mobile anti-aircraft units to shoot them down. Russian FPV UAS presented the UAF with a much more difficult C-UAS conundrum. These smaller UAS have shorter ranges and flight times, so an individual UAF soldier or unit would have to already be in the vicinity of where the Russian FPV UAS were operating to effectively target and neutralize them using a man-portable EW C-UAS jamming gun.
    • The vast majority of the materiel Mr. Hagarty and his teams relied on employed open-source software and hardware. Occasionally, they would receive commercial products to test and employ, but the effectiveness of those systems was too inconsistent to be useful. For example, the only effective EW C-UAS jamming gun he employed was manufactured in Ukraine. Mr. Hagarty found that all EW C-UAS jamming guns manufactured in the West (that he used) were ineffective. Further, he recounted that no western-manufactured drones (that he used) lasted more than one mission — instead, his units relied on either Mavic drones produced by China’s DJI or custom-built (i.e., domestically-produced Ukrainian) systems.
    • The UAF have established a live-streaming system so that all relevant units can see live feeds from systems currently in the air. This common operating picture reduces overlap, allows operators to identify targets, and enables shooters to correct missed shots in real time without being told or waiting for observers to relay new targeting information. Now everyone in the UAF — not just special forces units — have “eyes in the sky.”
    • The future fight will allow for maneuver warfare or static warfare. Maneuver warfare requires air superiority or artillery superiority. In Ukraine, it’s largely been a static war of attrition. With adversaries able to produce effects in all domains, the U.S. may not have air superiority in the next fight. Mr. Hagarty also doesn’t believe the U.S. is prepared for a static fight, nor does he think the U.S. and its citizens are prepared for the combat losses associated with a protracted static fight.

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 19 September 2024, when we sit down with Andrew Olson to discuss how wargaming can provide our Leaders with the requisite situational understanding of how they can successfully execute combat operations, achieve mission objectives, and win decisively on the battlefield, while simultaneously complying with our Nation’s Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response (CHMR) policy.

    If you enjoyed this post, check out the TRADOC G-2’s new OE Assessment — The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations

    Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterprise web page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:

    Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

    Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

    Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

    Check out the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:

    Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

    Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

    Death From Above! The Evolution of sUAS Technology and associated podcast, with COL Bill Edwards (USA-Ret.)

    Jomini’s Revenge: Mass Strikes Back! by proclaimed Mad Scientist Zachery Tyson Brown

    Insights from the Robotics and Autonomy Series of Virtual Events, as well as all of the associated webinar content (presenter biographies, slide decks, and notes) and associated videos

    Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

    Through Soldiers’ Eyes: The Future of Ground Combat and its associated podcast

    The PLA and UAVs – Automating the Battlefield and Enhancing Training

    A Chinese Perspective on Future Urban Unmanned Operations

    China: “New Concepts” in Unmanned Combat and Cyber and Electronic Warfare

    The PLA: Close Combat in the Information Age and the “Blade of Victory”

    “Once More unto The Breach Dear Friends”: From English Longbows to Azerbaijani Drones, Army Modernization STILL Means More than Materiel, by Ian Sullivan.

    The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

    Rapid Adaptation

    Turkey and the TB-2: A Rising Drone Superpower and its associated podcast, with Karen Kaya

    Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).


    102. War, Inc: The Private Sector in Contemporary Conflict with LTC Kristine Hinds Aug 22, 2024
    Show notes

    [Editor’s Note: The Mad Scientist Laboratory featured LTC Kristine M. Hinds‘ assessment of private sector involvement in future conflicts in “Sixth Domain” – Private Sector Involvement in Future Conflicts last June. While some Army purists have taken exception to the Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security‘s use of the term “Sixth Domain” to describe the private sector’s sphere of activities supporting warfighting, no one disputes the vital role that the private sector has played in providing corroborative intelligence via space imagery, effective cyber security, and resilient Command and Control networks — heretofore the domain of public sector defense services and intelligence communities — in Ukraine’s on-going fight against Russian imperialism.

    In today’s episode of The Convergence Podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with LTC Hinds to address Fifth Generation Warfare, the Sixth Domain, and how we may need to adapt to defend ourselves and the Nation in the evolving Operational Environment.

    In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with LTC Kristine Hinds — a 90A Logistics Corps officer in the U.S. Army Reserve and Future Seminar student at the Army War College — to discuss her work on Team Sullivan’s Travels, what her research revealed, and the implications of a Sixth Domain and Fifth Generation Warfare. The following bullet points highlight key takeaways from our conversation:

    • In focusing on the central theme of “how innovations from contemporary conflicts impact the future dynamics of warfare,” LTC Hinds explored the impacts of non-military or non-federally governed entities in crisis and conflict, specifically those of the private sector.
    • Per The Atlantic Council, the sixth domain refers to the private sector’s role in warfare. In its on-going fight with Russia, Ukraine continues to receive private sector support in cyber, communications, and data migration services. The “sixth domain” has emerged as a critical consideration for operational planning and warfighting, not only for the assets and capabilities it can deliver, but also for its associated risk in blurring the distinction between noncombatants and combatants.
    • Private sector support is not guaranteed – it can be pulled or even turned into a threat.There is risk in relying too heavily on support that can be easily turned off. The private sector’s ability to deny services or withhold information creates the possibility of them adversely impacting strategic, operational, and tactical operations, such as targeting.
    • Fifth generation warfare loosely describes contemporary conflicts in which tactics like social media influence operations and cyberattacks play a more prominent role in warfare – essentially, the role of the citizen. Early coordination, collaboration, and planning for integrating the private sector and citizens into warfare is necessary prior to the onset of any conflict.
    • Everyone is a player, and everything is a target.A major consideration of integrating the private sector and citizens into warfare is the willingness for these traditional noncombatants to potentially become involved kinetically or non-kinetically in a conflict that seemingly no longer has any rules.

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 05 September 2024, when we sit down with “Wolfgang Hagarty” (a nom-de-guerre) to discuss the on-going war in Ukraine, the rapidly evolving Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)/ Counter-UAS fight, and the overarching impacts of technological innovation on the changing character of warfare.

    If you enjoyed today’s post and podcast, check out LTC Kristine Hinds‘ “Sixth Domain” – Private Sector Involvement in Future Conflicts, as well as Team Sullivan’s Travels‘ Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target and their comprehensive Final Report.

    Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterpriseweb page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:

    Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

    Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

    Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

    Review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory wargaming content:

    Democratized Intelligence and Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Sign Post to the Future (Part 1), by Kate Kilgore

    Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

    The OSINT Odyssey: Unmasking Digital Clues and associated podcast, with Shawn Nilius

    Space: Challenges and Opportunities

    War Laid Bare and What the Joint Force can learn from K-Pop “Stans”, by Matthew Ader

    LET’S TWEET, GRANDMA – Weaponizing the Social to Create Information Security, by CDR Sean M. Sullivan

    The Future of War is Cyber! by CPT Casey Igo and CPT Christian Turley


    101. Precursor to Victory: Understanding the Operational Environment with Mr. Ian Sullivan Aug 08, 2024
    Show notes

    [Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist is pleased to publish its 500th post! Since its inception on 09 November 2017, the Mad Scientist Laboratory has continuously sought to explore the Operational Environment (OE) and the changing character of warfare on behalf of the U.S. Army. Given this enduring mission, it’s fitting that this milestone post features the highlights from our latest episode of The Convergence podcast. Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Ian Sullivan, Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence (DCSINT) G-2, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), to discuss the TRADOC G-2’s newly published The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations.

    The OE underpins how the U.S. Army is organized, trained, equipped, and operates — it is foundational in ensuring the Army’s mission success — fighting and winning our Nation’s wars. This latest OE assessment focuses on how our adversaries are learning and adapting how they fight from recent and on-going conflicts around the globe (e.g., Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, Gaza, and the Gulf of Aden). It describes the twelve conditions that contribute to Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO) and five resulting implications for the U.S. Army.

    This new OE assessment is central to how the U.S. Army integrates the threat within our Leadership Development Training and Education system, our doctrine, and our modernization efforts across the DOTMLPF-P spectrum of capabilities. In preparing for LSCO against our pacing and acute threats (China and Russia, respectively), it represents the “gold standard” for which the Army must ready itself as a “precursor to victory.” Any and everyone associated with defending this great Nation should familiarize themselves with its contents — Read on!]

    Mr. Ian Sullivan is the Deputy Chief of Staff Intelligence, G-2, TRADOC. He holds a BA from Canisius University in Buffalo, New York, an MA from Georgetown University’s BMW Center for German and European Studies in Washington, D.C., and was a Fulbright Fellow at the Universität Potsdam in Potsdam, Germany. A career civilian intelligence officer, Mr. Sullivan has served with the Office of Naval Intelligence; Headquarters, U.S. Army Europe and Seventh Army; the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) at the National Counterterrorism Center; the Central Intelligence Agency; and TRADOC. He is a member of the Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service and was first promoted to the senior civilian ranks in 2013 as a member of the ODNI’s Senior National Intelligence Service. Mr. Sullivan is a frequent and valued contributor to both the Mad Scientist Laboratoryand The Convergence podcast.

    In our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, Army Mad Scientist sat down with Mr. Sullivan to discuss the newly released The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations, the twelve conditions that contribute to LSCO, and the five implications for the U.S. Army and the larger Joint Force. The following bullet points highlight the key takeaways from our conversation:

    • While the Army continues to study conflicts from around the globe illustrating aspects of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO), TRADOC’s updated Operational Environment (OE) describes LSCO through the lens of our adversaries, highlighting what they are learning.This foundational document departs from previous OE assessments’ focus on the broad capabilities and environmental factors (e.g., technologies and demographics) to a threats-based focus that serves as the center point for integrating threat knowledge across the spectrum of doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy (DOTMLPF-P) capabilities.
    • This new OE describes twelve conditions that contribute to LSCO and five resulting implications. Several LSCO conditions highlight threat actors’ abilities to challenge the Army through anti-access/area denial, potential use of weapons of mass destruction, and threats to the U.S. homeland. Additional conditions speak to concepts highlighted in FM 3-0, Operations — multidomain threats on an increasingly transparent battlefield, the proliferation of uncrewed systems, the impact of information operations, increased lethality, and the potential for dense urban warfare.
    • The new OE also assesses possible implications for the Army that may result in organizational, training, or equipment changes. Among these is the relationship between maneuver, fires, and protection as a defense from overhead observation and precision fires, the dichotomy that exists between the art and science of war, understanding annihilation versus attrition, and the paramount requirement for rapid adaptation. Additionally, the assessment recognizes the warfighting advantage of highly trained Soldiers and Leaders.
    • Everyone will benefit from reading this assessment — from Soldiers across the Army to fellow Service members of the Joint Force and our Allies and Partners. No matter where you are within the DoD, the OE underpins everything that you do professionally on a daily basis. It is critical for the Army to understand how our adversaries are preparing for LSCO and the full weight of its associated conditions and implications.

    Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence on 22 August 2024, when we sit down with “Wolfgang Hagarty” (a nom-de-guerre) to discuss the on-going war in Ukraine, the rapidly evolving Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)/Counter-UAS fight, and the overarching impacts of technological innovation on the changing character of warfare.

    If you enjoyed this post and podcast, check out The Operational Environment 2024-2034: Large-Scale Combat Operations.

    Explore the TRADOC G-2‘s Operational Environment Enterpriseweb page, brimming with information on the OE and how our adversaries fight, including:

    Our China Landing Zone, full of information regarding our pacing challenge, including ATP 7-100.3, Chinese Tactics, BiteSize China weekly topics, People’s Liberation Army Ground Forces Quick Reference Guide, and our thirty-plus snapshots captured to date addressing what China is learning about the Operational Environment from Russia’s war against Ukraine (note that a DoD Common Access Card [CAC] is required to access this last link).

    Our Russia Landing Zone, including the BiteSize Russia weekly topics. If you have a CAC, you’ll be especially interested in reviewing our weekly RUS-UKR Conflict Running Estimates and associated Narratives, capturing what we learned about the contemporary Russian way of war in Ukraine over the past two years and the ramifications for U.S. Army modernization across DOTMLPF-P.

    Our Running Estimates SharePoint site (also requires a CAC to access), containing our monthly OE Running Estimates, associated Narratives, and the 2QFY24 and 3QFY24 OE Assessment TRADOC Intelligence Posts (TIPs).

    Review the following related Mad Scientist Laboratory content:

    Know Your Enemy: Army Doctrine Starts with the Threat and associated podcast, with General Gary M. Brito, Colonel Rich Creed (USA-Ret.), and Mr. Ian Sullivan

    Insights from Ukraine on the Operational Environment and the Changing Character of Warfare

    Learning from LSCO: Applying Lessons to Irregular Conflict, by Ian Sullivan and Kate Kilgore

    Insights from the Israel-Hamas War and associated podcast, with LTC Kenneth Hardy

    Rapid Adaptation

    Unmanned Capabilities in Today’s Battlespace

    Revolutionizing 21st Century Warfighting: UAVs and C-UAS

    War Laid Bare, by Matthew Ader

    The Operational Environment’s Increased Lethality

    The Hard Part of Fighting a War: Contested Logistics

    Future Dynamics of Warfare: Everyone is a Player, Everything is a Target, by Team Sullivan’s Travels

    Dense Urban Environments (DUE): Now through 2050

    China and Russia: Achieving Decision Dominance and Information Advantage by Ian Sullivan

    WMD Threat: Now and in the Future

    Innovation at the Edge and associated podcast

    Rapid Adaptation


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