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    Business

    The Contrarian Investor Podcast

    The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.

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    • Google Play
    • Spotify
    Latest Episodes:
    Some Disparate 'Best Ideas' for the Rest of 2023: Brooker Belcourt Aug 23, 2023
    Show notes

    This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here.

    Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform's best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged...

    (Not investment advice).

    Content Highlights
    • What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37)
    • The platform's 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), 'high-quality' names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55);
    • What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40);
    • Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international... (16:04);
    More About the Guest
    • Website: Covey.io;
    • Twitter: @CoveyInvest;
    • LinkedIn: CoveyInvest.
    The Economy's Soft-Landing Will Be Short-Lived: Peter Kraus, Aperture Investors Aug 10, 2023
    Show notes

    This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.

    Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the 'soft landing' to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.

    Content Highlights
    • An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38);
    • The Fed is unlikely to 'break more stuff' as this spring's banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12);
    • Inflation will be more persistent and 'sticky' than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn't leave bonds in a very good position (7:20);
    • When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17);
    • The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33);
    • Background on the guest (26:06);
    • China's driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).
    More on the Aperture Investors
    • Website: ApertureInvestors.com;
    • Twitter: @ApertureInvstrs;
    • LinkedIn: Aperture-Investors;
    • Instagram: @ApertureInvestors.
    Investor Confidence Is Fast Approaching 'Invulnerable Extremes': Peter Atwater Jul 27, 2023
    Show notes

    This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack.

    Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity." Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' that indicates a top in markets...

    Content Highlights
    • Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48)
    • Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52);
    • Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08);
    • How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17);
    • When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16);
    • Background on the guest (24:10);
    • Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37);
    • Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing 'sentiment diversification' (30:08);
    • Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).
    More on the Guest
    • Website: PeterAtwater.com;
    • Twitter: @Peter_Atwater;
    • Ways to order the book here.

    Not investment advice.

    Contrarian Wealth-Generation, With Stephanie Walter Jul 20, 2023
    Show notes

    Premium subcribers received this (and every) episode early and without ads.

    Stephanie Walter of Erbe Wealth joins the podcast to discuss some of the trade secrets of ultra-wealthy investors. Listeners may be shocked to hear about their very small allocation to public equities...

    Content Highlights
    • A unique way to generate tax-free income through so-called premium financing insurance (1:51);
    • The security works as a life insurance policy with a premium paid by a bank (5:45);
    • These securities are illiquid, with a lock-up of 10 to 15 years, but the coupon pays double-digit percent -- tax free (7:34);
    • Cap rates are starting to rise, creating opportunities in commercial real estate. One example is retail in Wyoming (14:23);
    • Office space is a different animal however. Too much risk, not enough reward (18:50);
    • Background on the guest (22:27);
    • Some of the ways ultra-wealthy allocate funds (very little to public equities), and the mindsets behind them (26:06);
    • What about cryptos? (33:48);
    • There are reasons to be concerned about the economy. Taxes could be a wild card here. Also interest rates (34:48).
    More Information on the Guest
    • Website: ErbeWealth.com;
    • LinkedIn: Erbe-Wealth.
    Trend-Following Strategy Primer and Current Opportunities, With Anthony Todd, Aspect Capital Jul 13, 2023
    Show notes

    This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits for the premium service, which are spelled out on our Substack.

    Anthony Todd, the founder of Aspect Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the trend-following investment strategy he helped pioneer almost 50 years ago including where it might be particularly applicable in today's markets.

    Content Highlights
    • What is trend-following? Quick primer (1:06);
    • What makes a trend? (5:23);
    • What markets does Aspect Capital trade? (7:52);
    • Current opportunities (9:11):
      • Fixed-income (10:09);
      • Agricultural commodities (10:58);
    • Price action is paramount in the trend-following model, and it can lead to closing or reversing certain trades. For example, a bond rally... (14:15);
    • Wait, so is trend-following anti-contrarian? (16:11);
    • Background on the guest (21:24);
    • His thoughts on artificial intelligence, or AI... (28:20);
    • ...and on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (31:55).
    For More Information:
    • Website: AspectCapital.com;
    • LinkedIn: Aspect-Capital.
    Not investment advice.
    Regional Bank Credit Risk, AI Tech Hype, Trouble in Commercial Real Estate: Chris Bemis, X-Cubed Capital Jun 20, 2023
    Show notes

    This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on June 15 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits to premium subscriptions, which are spelled out on our Substack.

    Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing.

    Content Highlights
    • Last September, X-Cubed's credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest... (1:21);
    • AI tech stocks: It's not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11);
    • Background on the guest (15:40);
    • The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46);
    • The bearish argument on office space and why he's bullish homeowners (26:20);
    • Making use of mobile phone data and other 'alternative' data sources (30:00);
    • AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18);
    • Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37).
    More Information on the Guest
    • Website: x3cmllc.com
    Inflation Will Persist Above the Fed's Comfort Level: Naomi Fink Jun 07, 2023
    Show notes

    This episode was made available to premium subscribers on June 1 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

    Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating -- and how and where this impact will be felt.

    Content Highlights
    • Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15);
    • There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09);
    • Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03);
    • Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52);
    • Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don't will be left behind (16:34);
    • AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23);
    • Background on the guest (24:53);
    • Japan and Japan stocks (28:36);
    • Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59);
    • What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17);
    • Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword... (46:28).
    More From The Guest
    • Website: Europacifica.com.
    AI is Overhyped, Will Only Worsen Inequality: Simon Johnson May 31, 2023
    Show notes

    This episode was made available to premium subscribers on May 24, without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

    MIT Economist Simon Johnson joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity' and specifically why artificial intelligence is likely overhyped, and that not just from an investment perspective.

    Content Highlights
    • Artificial intelligence's default trajectory is about machine intelligence, code for replacing people with machines. Historically, this has not brought great things (1:21);
    • Indeed technological progress has not always benefited everybody, but just a small group at the top. Today's advancements are no different (5:11);
    • Don't expect a boost to business either. Productivity gains should be limited (9:17);
    • Some of the dangers of Chat GPT and Google's Bard that is driving most business development around AI (20:12);
    • Background on the guest (24:26);
    • Thoughts on the current market environment and its potential to spill over into crisis (27:43).
    For More Information
    • Get the book on Amazon: Power and Progress;
    • Simon Johnson's Wikipedia page;
    • Twitter: @BaselineScene.
    Value Stock Geek on Google, Meta, Taiwan Semiconductor May 18, 2023
    Show notes

    This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 16 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

    Value Stock Geek rejoins the podcast to discuss recent portfolio acquisitions Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), what's on his watch list, and where and when he could be looking to buy.

    Content Highlights
    • The case for Google stock (1:54);
    • Artificial intelligence and how that is impacting Google's business (6:40);
    • Meta and the Metaverse: investing in the legacy business plus Instagram (7:38);
    • Taiwan Semiconductor: cyclical, yes, but a good bet for the long term (12:39);
    • 'The Weird Portfolio' and how that works (16:07);
    • The watchlist and two notable stocks worth watching right now: NVR (NVR) and Deere (DE) (20:39).
    • Home Depot (HD), another watchlist stock, just reported earnings and lowered guidance due in part to consumers pulling back on big-ticket purchases (29:00).
    More Information on the Guest
    • Substack: SecurityAnalysis.org;
    • Twitter: @ValueStockGeek;
    • The Weird Portfolio is discussed in some detail on a previous podcast appearance.
    Mild Recession Brings Opportunities in Tech Stocks, Corporate Bonds: Elliot Kallen May 11, 2023
    Show notes

    This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 9 and a short highlights reel was made available to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode followed a day later. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.

    Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.

    Content Highlights
    • Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31);
    • The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04);
    • The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds -- corporates (8:47);
    • Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers... (12:02);
    • Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38);
    • Background on the guest (24:00);
    • Active management has its place (30:24);
    • Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).
    Not investment advice. Do your own research. Make your own decisions. More Information on the Guest
    • Website: ProsperityFinancialGroup.com;
    • Facebook;
    • YouTube.
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