The Contrarian Investor Podcast

Hugh Hendry, OG Contrarian (Szn 4, Ep21) Aug 09, 2022

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 3 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month.

Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers...

Content Highlights

Hendry's most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40);
"We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years" after "les miserables" period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11);
"I don't think we have inflation." Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53);
Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56);
What's behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part... (39:49);
Markets are 'bucking broncos.' Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55);
Background on the guest. As an 'OG contrarian' Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58);
A little insight into Hendry's current life and psychology (1:10:40);
Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37);
The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44);
China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @Hendry_Hugh;
Substack: HughHendry;
Instagram: HughHendryOfficial;
YouTube: HughHendryOfficial;
The Acid Capitalist.

The Bullish Case for Rare Earths: Louis O'Connor (Szn 4, Ep. 20) Aug 01, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 26. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available.

Louis O'Connor, CEO of Strategic Metals Invest, joins the podcast to make the case for rare earth metals. These commodities, hitherto unavailable to retail investors, are now accessible and entering the mainstream...

Content Highlights

Rare earth metals (sometimes called rare earth elements) are intrinsic to daily life. They are part of modern technology as diverse as electric cars, military applications, solar applications, nuclear reactors, and more (3:01);
China produces more than 80% of the world's rare earths and refines metals even mined in the U.S. (5:39);
Okay, so what are these rare metals exactly? There are 17 in all, though not all are exactly rare, or vital... (8:12);
Rare earths have outperformed almost all major asset classes the last five years (14:22);
The supply picture for rare earths is complicated, while demand is quite inelastic, depending on a diverse set of buyers... (18:58);
Rare earths are entering the mainstream and production is increasing in the U.S., where it is more expensive (23:01);
There is a specific rare earth where the investment opportunity is particularly compelling at present (31:58);
Tellurium, on the other hand, is one that is not deemed particularly advantageous at the moment (35:50).

About the Guest

Oil Prices Will Rise to $200/Barrel: Salem Abraham (Szn 4, Ep 19) Jul 18, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available.

Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment.

Content Highlights

The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed -- so are investments in infrastructure (4:13);
Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07);
"I think we end up with stagflation," but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50);
Natural gas "is still a great investment" (14:14);
The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31);
There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52);
Background on the guest (29:36);
Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37);
The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the 'transitory' talk. The Fed will blink, eventually... (36:02);
Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49).

More Information on the Guest

Twitter: @SalemAbraham;
Website: AbrahamTrading.com.

Assessing the Precarious State of Markets With Marc Chandler (Szn 4, Ep 18) Jul 07, 2022

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers ton July 5 -- the same day it was recorded. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $10/month. Free trials are available.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannock Burn Global FX, joins the podcast to discuss the precarious state of markets and what he is expecting from upcoming releases of key economic data. He also provides a pair of investment ideas for these times, with the understanding that nothing here is to be taken as investment advice.

Content Highlights

The coming week brings a number of crucial economic data around employment and inflation. What to expect (2:50);
"I don't think we're in a recession yet. But I think it's going to be hard to avoid one." Cracks are appearing and these warrant attention (3:51);
Weekly jobless claims (up Thursday) can be a leading indicator of recessions (5:30);
Non-farm payrolls are up on Friday. What to expect (11:34);
Core inflation is actually receding from highs, but the Fed can't (and more importantly won't) declare victory over inflation quite yet (14:42);
Recent days have seen a shift in market sentiment, to where a rate cut is starting to be priced in (17:43);
What is an investor to do here? The guest has two ideas, at opposite ends of the risk spectrum (25:23);

More Coverage of These Topics

Don't Fear Inflation, the Fed is Right, 10-Year Yields to Drop to 0.5%: Alfonso Peccatiello Jul 15, 2021

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Alfonso Peccatiello joins the podcast to discuss his contrarian views on inflation, bond yields, and interest rates. The guest doesn't buy the inflation narrative entirely, believing credit creation has peaked. We are likely to see negative economic surprises and drawdowns in risk assets starting in the fourth quarter. Yield on 10-year bonds should peak at 0.5% due to a 'Eurofication' of the U.S. yield curve.

Content Highlights:

Why concerns about inflation are misguided (1:54);
The Fed is right. Inflation is transitory (6:37);
Demand for bank loans is "terrible," despite extremely low yields (13:54);
Why do bond yields continue to drop? (18:16);
The bond market is saying growth and credit creation has peaked (23:24);
Why central banks' digital currency experiments are potentially a game-changer (27:49);
Background on the guest (33:04);
The 'four quadrant' approach to macro investing and where we are right now (36:26);
The Fed tightening cycle should start in late 2022 and peak around 0.75% (47:50);
How low do we go on the 10-year this cycle? (57:00)

More Information on the Guest:

Website: The Macro Compass;
Twitter: @MacroAlf.

Not intended as investment advice.

Merger Arbitrage and Why to Not Fear The Antitrust Boogeyman, With Deepak Gurnani, Versor Investments Jul 08, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast.

To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber or join our substack, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast and briefing, published every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. ET.

Deepak Gurnani, managing partner of Versor Investments, joins the podcast to discuss merger arbitrage investing. Merger arb is the rare strategy that can (really!) consistently produce non-correlated returns. But it isn't easy to execute. Gurnani provides some information around what has worked for his firm and things to look for for those wishing to get involved with the strategy. Not intended as investment advice.

Content Highlights:(Spotify users can click on the time stamp to link to the start of the segment)

Versor Investments' unique approach to merger arbitrage and why it's different from most fundamental-based approaches (3:53);
Ultimately success in merger arb comes down to differentiating between mergers that will close successfully and those that will be terminated -- and then overweighting the former (5:39);
Some of the alternative data sources that Versor uses to track and rate announced deals (7:49);
A merger's time-to-completion and why it can be vital (13:51);
Digging in to the 10% failure rate for announced mergers and why it is likely inflated (15:41);
The antitrust environment under new FTC chair Lina Khan and other regulatory uncertainty (18:28);
Technology M&A: an opportunity? (21:44);
Background on the guest (25:12);
The state of M&A dealflow in the U.S. (28:50);
Improved offers and competing bids are on the rise, dramatically (33:23).

For More Information on this Topic:

Website: VersorInvest.com;
The Environment for Merger Arbitrage 2021: Link to paper.

Colin Lancaster is Fed Up! Jun 23, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber or join our substack, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Colin Lancaster, global head of macro/fixed income at Schonfeld Strategic Partner Fund, joins the podcast to discuss his book Fed Up! Success, Excess and Crisis Through the Eyes of a Hedge Fund Macro Trader. The book spans the period from October 2019 to June 2020 and includes the height of the coronavirus crisis. This features heavily into the conversation. We also discuss the Federal Reserve and his view of current markets.

Content Highlights: (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)

What went into him writing the book? What was the impetus? (3:50);
Macro investing and the need to be a diversifier and disaster hedge (7:38);
What is he most concerned about right now in markets? (12:07);
What does an investor do in this market, especially with the Fed continuing to hold rates near zero? (14:30);
The Fed's experiment is "dangerous" and the central bank has "very little credibility" when it comes to inflation (18:55);
Background on the guest (23:49);
The Fed's role in creating and fostering wealth inequality is significant, despite its good intentions (27:48);
How to go about fixing this? Does the Fed perhaps have too much autonomy? (31:30);
The book is technically a novel and has quite a few characters. Are these fictional or based on real people? (36:28);
Alternative data; some ideas of what to look for (40:35).

More Information on the Guest

Website: ColinLancaster.me;
Twitter: @ColinLancaster;
Buy the book on Amazon.

Not intended as investment advice.

Fed Meeting and Economic Outlook: Quick Call With Scott Colbert, Commerce Trust Co. Jun 15, 2021

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and state of the economy. This was a quick call recorded over a phone line on Tuesday, June 15.

Content Highlights:

The Fed meeting that concludes June 16 and the coming discussion around the rolldown of QE (0:52);
Colbert's reasons for being "grossly optimistic" about the economy (3:43);
The biggest concern is around the length of the current expansion (5:04);
The prospects of asset bubbles and why the 'dot plot' should see an increase from four to six or seven members of the FOMC who want to see higher interest rates (7:37);
Where does all this leave investors? (11:06);
What is driving the drop in bond yields (14:41);

Not intended as investment advice.

The Rise of Retail Investors, With Gav Blaxberg, WOLF Financial Jun 03, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Gav Blaxberg of WOLF Financial joins the podcast to discuss his views of the retail investors who have been pushing stocks like GameStop and more recently AMC. Blaxberg's research on this phenomenon predates the GameStop brouhaha. He has reasons to believe retail investors have been gaining in power and will be a growing force to reckon with when it comes to major movement, especially among small cap stocks.

Content Highlights: (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)

What happened with GameStop was not an anomaly. Expect more where that came from (3:47);
The trend did not start with GameStop, but can be traced to the 'Kodak movement' (5:07);
Institutions still have more capital and control more of public companies' shares. How are smaller retail investors able to move these stocks? Even small caps? (8:23);
The return of retail investors, which hasn't been seen since the heady days of the dot-com doom, can be traced in large part to commission-free trades (10:37);
Quick segue after the guest mentions he gets 9% APR on his blockchain-linked savings account -- in USD (14:25);
Background on the guest and how he came to start WOLF Financial (20:42);
Twitter remains the most actionable social media platform when it comes to moving stocks. Everything else is a distant second. Yes, even Reddit (32:30);
So what stocks are popular on social media right now? It's still growth stocks. Some examples (36:34);
What stocks have potential but don't do enough (or anything on social media) and could boost their popularity with retail investors if they changed this? Some examples (39:34).

More Information on the Guest

Wolf Financial website: WOLF.Financial;
Wolf Financial Twitter: @WOLF_Financial;
Personal Twitter: @GavBlaxberg.

Not intended as investment advice.

Cryptocurrencies and Regulatory Risk: Real and Present, With Jacob Ma-Weaver, Cable Car Capital May 20, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Jacob Ma-Weaver of Cable Car Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss the regulatory risk facing cryptocurrencies. This podcast was recorded on May 19, a day bitcoin dropped some 15% after the People's Bank of China published a report warning over the use of digital currencies. But even before the PBOC, cryptos were dropping in value. Bitcoin has declined more than 30% from its high set earlier this month.

Ma-Weaver's interest in cryptocurrencies originates with his work as an activist short-seller. He has held conversations with regulators on cryptocurrency exchanges in particular. That was much of the focus of the conversation. Not intended as investment advice. Nothing on this episode should be taken as an endorsement for or criticism of cryptocurrencies in any form.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the section directly)

What informs Ma-Weaver's perspective on cryptocurrencies and crypto regulation, and his thoughts on the PBOC move (5:37);
Crypto exchanges: How are they currently regulated in the U.S., and why is this one of the biggest areas of potential enforcement? (11:24);
A lot of the issue boils down to 'what is a security?' The definition is quite broad, contrary to what proponents of digital currencies might claim (14:50);
Why haven't any government agencies stepped in to try to regulate cryptos? (21:54);
More background on the guest (34:39);
Specifics on what might be coming from regulators in the U.S. (38:45);
Publicly-traded companies that serve as proxies for crypto. Are they at risk? (49:02);
Does increased regulation remove the utility of cryptos? (51:21);
Ten years from now, will cryptos still be a thing? The short answer: no (53:26).

More Information on the Guest:

Twitter: @CableCarCapital.

Distressed Investing for Retail Investors, With Chris Krug, Chatham Harbor Capital May 12, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Chris Krug of Chatham Harbor Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his hedge fund's strategy of buying equity of distressed companies. Krug has a unique background and a unique approach, targeting the equity of companies that are heavily indebted but face a transformation. He shares his insights with listeners with the understanding that nothing is to be considered investment advice.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)

Overview of Krug's contrarian investment strategy: buying stocks of companies that are loaded up with debt (3:49);
Debt-to-Ebitda is not a great metric. Investors should look at debt to free cash flow instead (5:57);
Chatham Harbor's screening process for new ideas (9:44);
The fund's largest holding right now: a collections agency for the IRS and student loans that is transforming to a healthcare company (15:27);
A look at the macro picture: what if interest rates go up and it becomes harder for these companies to refinance? (28:05);
Background on the guest (30:28);
More about Chatham Harbor's portfolio and its holding of a private prison company (34:03);
The small-cap game is about volume. You need to look at thousands of names and stay on top of the developments (43:42).

More Information on the Guest

The Case for Indian Stocks: Ethan Widell, Ironhold Capital Apr 29, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Ethan Widell, senior analyst at Ironhold Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the case for Indian stocks. The country is currently suffering under record cases of coronavirus, with horrific humanitarian consequences. This has understandably weighed on investors' minds. But there are other transformations underway in India's economy that make the investing prospects exciting in the long run.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)

India's macroeconomic positioning is "extraordinary" and conducive to growth (3:01);
Infrastructure and bureaucratic red tape remain an impediment to growth, but the trend is toward deregulation (7:10);
Covid cases are spiking. A clear concern and troubling from a humanitarian point of view, but where investing is concerned Ironhold sees this as a short-term issue. Indeed, most companies have already adjusted (11:20);
What sectors is Ironhold most excited about right now? (13:53);
Background on the guest (20:22);
A niche segment of India's stock market that the firm likes a lot right now (24:12);
Contrary to popular belief, there are opportunities to buy stocks for those willing to look in niche corners of the market. One is India's mutual fund industry (29:12).

More Information on the Guest

Website: IronholdCapital.com;
LinkedIn;
Podcast: Leaders in Business and Investing.

Risk Versus Returns: Rethinking the Connection, with Chris Belchamber Apr 15, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Chris Belchamber joins the podcast to discuss his book Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road to High Returns and challenge the axiom that market-beating returns are not possible without taking on large amounts of risk. Belchamber has studied the most successful investors' track records over decades. One thing they all have in common is prioritizing risk aversion and behavioral discipline. There are simple lessons to be learned for 'novice' investors.

Content Highlights: (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

Most financial advisers have bought in to the idea that more risk will generate higher returns. This "simple line of argumentation is just wrong." (6:39);
'Paradox investing' and Radobank's model (10:57);
The mindset of successful investors is all about risk aversion. The biggest problem facing investors is their own behavior (13:56);
'The optimization of the brain' function: what it is and how to go about it without getting exhausted (17:23);
Background on the guest (23:05);
Belchamber's meeting with John Meriwether (26:42);
Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies (28:52);
Red flags and other things investors should look for (33:07);
The current state of the economic and market cycle and why the second half of this year could be a lot different -- and worse (38:29).

More Information about the Guest:

Website: ChrisBelchamber.com;
Book via Amazon.com;
Twitter: @ChrisCBIM.

Markets to Peak in 2nd Quarter Before Bust: David Hunter Apr 01, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a 'parabolic melt-up' in risk assets that will be followed by a 'deflationary' bust. Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.

This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)

The coming 'parabolic melt-up': new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell's current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
"It won't take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry." People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the "final, vertical phase" of the melt-up (21:48);
The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).

More on David's newsletter Contrary to popular opinion, this subscription does not provide access to David's quarterly newsletter! That needs to be arranged with David himself. The best way to do so is through Twitter: @DaveHContrarian (DMs are open). Alternately, you can email contrarianpod@gmail.com if you do not have Twitter or don't wish to/know how to engage with it. In such instance the host will forward your emails to David. Not intended as investment advice.

Archegos Capital and Using Behavioral Finance to Protect Yourself From Yourself Apr 01, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Gary Mishuris, managing partner and chief investment officer at Boston-based Silver Ring Value Partners, joins the podcast to discuss using behavioral finance to protect against mistakes in one's own investing process. The conversation quickly moves to Archegos Capital and whether this is a contained event that can be a buying opportunity -- or whether it constitutes systemic risk for the market in general. Later we discuss financial literacy and how investment managers face a real conflict that prevents them from being true fiduciaries.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

Behavioral finance: not just to identify investment opportunities (3:42);
The first step is admitting you have a problem (5:25);
The Devil's Advocate Club (6:31);
Archegos Capital and the blocktrade controversy (14:19);
Is the Archegos Capital issue a contained event or something like the Long Term Capital Management crisis? Or perhaps a 'canary in the coalmine' type of thing? (21:40);
Central banks may not have the market's back indefinitely and relying on the Fed may be (24:19);
Background on the guest (32:51);
The conflict preventing fund managers from being true fiduciaries (31:31);
The need for fund managers to train their investors (35:20);
Financial literacy and educating the broader public about investing (46:54);
The name of the fund (Silver Ring) is not a Lord of the Rings reference. The story behind how the fund got its name (50:03)

More Information on the Guest

Website: SilverRingValuePartners.com;
Behavioral Value Investor publication;
Request the owner's manual discussed here (free).

Don't Call Tech Stocks Overbought: Shana Sissel, Spotlight Asset Group Mar 17, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Shana Sissel, chief investment officer of Spotlight Asset Group, joins the podcast to discuss her bullish outlook on technology stocks and other views on the markets. Just because tech stocks might not be overbought (yet) doesn't mean there aren't sections of the markets that are frothy. Take SPACs for example. That is sure to end badly. Sissel also has some views on working from home, why there aren't more women in professional investing, GameStop, and which cities in the U.S. have the best pizza, among other things.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)

The bullish case for tech stocks remains intact. They may be expensive, but you need to pay for growth at this stage of the cycle (3:11);
There's even upside for Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), though not as much as other stocks (7:09);
These other stocks include NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Marvell Technology Group NASDAQ:MRVL), and Activision Blizzard (NASDQ:ATVI) (9:32);
GameStop (NYSE:GME) discussion. Yes, really. Though AMC (NYSE:AMC) is a better example of what we're talking about (14:50);
The guest's views on the economic picture and why higher rates are not really a concern (19:07);
Her views on SPACs. Spoiler alert: this won't end well (24:19);
Background on the guest (39:39);
Her podcast, The Black Swans, and how it came to be (51:10);
Women in finance and why they're still under-represented (55:54);
A discussion of pizza: Worcester, Mass. versus New Haven, Conn. versus New York versus Chicago versus Detroit (1:08:18).

More Information on the Guest

Spotlight Asset Group: Who We Are;
Twitter: @ShanaS621;
Podcast: The Black Swans;
Instagram: @finance_queen2020.

Not intended as investment advice.

The Case for Precious Metals Miners, With Sean Fieler, Equinox Partners Mar 04, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Sean Fieler, president and chief investment officer at hedge fund firm Equinox Partners, joins the podcast to make the case for an unloved part of the equity markets: gold and silver miners. This case is based on several variables, starting with unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy that has marked this particular epoch in global financial markets. "The idea that gold and silver wouldn't do well in that environment are totally at odds with financial history," says Fieler. It goes a lot further than this, of course. Fieler discusses the variables and even presents some favorite stocks.

Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly)

The case for underlying gold and silver miners, including the compounding of fiscal and monetary policy. (3:03);
Why invest in miners rather than in the physical commodity, or futures contracts thereon? (7:26);
One concern with ETFs tracking prices of physical metals: the administrators are not necessarily reliable counterparties (9:00);
There are risks with owning miners as well, of course (11:41);
More information on the guest (15:17);
One surprising fact: West Africa is a good place to build a mine. Latin America is much more difficult (17:27);
Ghana's fledgling securities market may be a good opportunity for investment (19:48);
One favorite stock: Endeavor Mining Corp (OTC:EDVMF) (21:35);
A microcap name to watch: RTG Mining (GREY: RTGGF), a copper and gold miner in the Philippines (25:19);
A little background on the fund, which predates the gym of the same name (27:52).

Not intended as investment advice.

Contrarian Stock Picks in Health Care, Tech, Travel Feb 25, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning around 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

"Ze Contrarian," a well-known and well-followed fintwit investor (Twitter handle: @ZeContrarian7) joins the podcast to discuss his investment philosophy and provide several stock picks for listeners. A few segments of this episode contain adult language. Listener discretion is advised.

Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)

Investment philosophy and view of the markets: it's a brave new world with promoters on social media and elsewhere moving stocks (3:00);
Where are the opportunities right now? Things move quickly, but biotechnology and companies that are part of the "great reopening" are two fertile areas (9:17);
First idea: Odonate Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ODT) (15:33);
Second idea: MediWound (NASDAQ: MDWD) (18:41);
Third idea: Farfetch (NYSE: FTCH) (23:33);
Fourth idea: Hostelworld Group (PINK: HSWLF). "There's no better example for a contrarian investment than this stock." (28:17);
Brief discussion of hostels, where the host unwittingly reveals just how much of a boomer he really is (34:56);
Background on the guest (45:26)
The contrarian indicator that allowed him to get out of the market ahead of the COVID meltdown last February (50:55);
How does he find opportunities? It's all about building a network (54:37);
How to produce income? BDCs, or business development companies. Current favorite: Golub Capital (NASDAQ: GBDC) (59:32);
The coming boom in long-term travel and remote work and why it bodes well for the hotel industry (1:05:46);
The potential of Mexico (1:08:19).

Additional Material

Hostelworld investment thesis via Twitter;

Not intended as investment advice.

Energy, Aircraft Leasing, 5G: Favorite Stock Picks for the Road Ahead Feb 18, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning around 7:00 a.m. eastern time.

Leo Schmidt, chief investment officer of hedge fund firm River Eddy Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss some of his favorite ideas in three areas of the market he expects to out-perform. These areas are: Energy, aircraft leasing, and 5G infrastructure development. Stock picks are provided, but you have to listen to the podcast to hear (most of) them.

Content Segments (Spotify users can link to the start of the segment by clicking on the timestamp)

Energy markets: The coming supply/demand imbalance (3:03);
Equitrans Midstream (NYSE: ETRN) and the opportunity in natural gas pipeline companies (6:43);
The sell side's argument against ETRN, based around regulatory risk due to environmental issues (9:08);
Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere, even with electric vehicles and ESG initiatives (12:51);
Speaking of energy issues, who might be the winners and losers from the current situation in Texas? (17:26);
What is the most appropriate historical parallel to the current state of the market? (18:52);
Airlines are "a fantastic idea" but aircraft leasing companies may be even better (25:48);
Favorite airline leasing companies (32:09) and how to play the "internet of things" and 5G mobile (32:47);
More information on the guest (41:25);
"You can't just do the opposite of everybody. You need to have some sort of grounding principle. That principle is valuation to cash." (48:24);
The Gamestop Game has serious consequences (49:30);
Could 1970s-era stagflation be in the offing? Schmidt recalls his brief meeting with the late Paul Volcker (52:09);
The divide between Main Street and Wall Street (56:07).

More Information on the Guest

Website: CFA Society of New York
Twitter: @TheLeoSchmidt (semi-dormant)

Not intended as investment advice.

What Will Likely Prick The Everything Bubble, With Chris Stanton, Sunrise Capital Jan 27, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.

Chris Stanton of Sunrise Capital rejoins the podcast to discuss his views of what will upend the raging bull market in risk assets.

Content Segments(Spotify users can click on the timestamp directly to link to the start of the segment)

How we got here: the market price action is similar to late summer, 2019 (3:49);
However, there are some big differences between then and now, starting with volatility (5:44);
What's awry? Two things should have people's attention. One is that the retail market has figured out how to achieve leverage. The second is market structure (10:46);
Big market makers are being eliminated by the day, including hedge funds (16:59);
Where are the investors who have been moving the market? Not in the U.S. (20:38)
Believe it or not, U.S. investors do not appear to be "all in" on the bull market yet (24:48);
Central banks are setting up everybody's portfolio to be long. At the same time passive indexing has eroded cash reserves (29:57);
The "terrible" setup is in place: Vol is elevated against what it has done historically, the market structure is not set up to provide liquidity when it is needed most, and investors are in increasingly crowded trades (37:57);
What ends the bull market? First thing could be a resurfacing of trade tensions with China (45:56);
Vaccines could provide a "straight line" out of the coronavirus crisis, removing the need for ultra-loose interest rate policy (49:00);
It's only going to take one sentence in the Fed minutes to spook markets. Watch for the whole thing to be politicized too (50:49);
The next correction we see is not going to be 5%. "I will bet you it's 15...it's going to scare the living daylights out of you again." (53:39);
Commercial real estate is something else worth watching (57:04);
For now watch for the bull market to run until March. If that happens, short opportunities should be abundant (1:00:01);
Finally, keep an eye out for a currency crisis to trip up investors (1:02:02).

More About The Guest

Website: SunRiseCapital.com
Twitter: @CStantonCIO

Not intended as investment advice. Listeners are advised to do their own research and make their own decisions.

The Biden Administration and Risks to Global Growth Jan 21, 2021

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his view on "policy tremors" that could upend economic and risk asset growth in 2021. (Barry's dog Oliver makes a brief appearance as well).

Content (Spotify users can skip directly to the segment by clicking on the timestamp)

The current reflation theme is part of a recovery from what was actually a two-year recession in global manufacturing, trade, and capital spending (4:19);
The Federal Reserve will initially be pleased with rising inflation, having slayed the deflation boogeyman. This will eventually morph into discomfort (first from regional bank presidents) and concerns that inflation is moving "too far, too fast" (11:43);
Once this happens, Fed officials will begin discussing "policy normalization" and real rates will start to move, triggering a risk-off event (13:19);
The Georgia elections the first week of the year were a kind of "sneak preview" of this event, but look to mid-year for the real McCoy (16:37);
Another important indicator: Watch house prices through the spring selling season (20:40);
Two details of President-elect Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal that are not fully appreciated by the market (21:41);
The Democrats will likely ask for more than Republicans are willing to give, triggering reconciliation that would be a rude awakening for the market (28:38);
If the $1400 stimulus checks go through it may lead to another "speculative blow off" (30:50);
There is no indication President-elect Biden is willing to roll back tariffs on China, though he could re-engage in TPP. But anybody expecting a broader unwinding of the trade war "is pretty off-base" (33:00);
Look for further USD weakness, particularly against the yen and the euro (37:57);
Favorite asset classes for 2021 (41:09)

More About The Guest

Not intended as investment advice.

How To Find Compounders In Unusual Places Dec 31, 2020

This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.

Artem Fokin of Caro-Kann Capital joins the podcast to discuss his strategy of finding compounders in unusual places, specifically those listed on the "wrong" exchanges.

Content Segments (Spotify users can link to the section directly by clicking on the timestamp)

"What do I mean with the wrong exchange?" (3:42);
Why would a U.S. company not just list in the U.S.? Isn't there more upside? (7:19);
Why the Australian exchange is one of the guest's favorites for finding these companies (13:41);
What are the other criteria he looks for? (22:05);
What about valuation metrics for choosing an entry point? (31:06);
Background on the guest (35:05);
More information about his fund, which also focuses on special situations (37:18);
The focus has remained consistent, due to core competence (39:35);
One hidden gem, a portfolio holding, that he discovered recently: a software company with solid growth rate early in its lifecycle that trades in Australia -- and is already profitable (41:19);
More discussion of the company, its customer base and how that has changed post-COVID (48:52).

More About The Guest

Website: Caro-Kann-Capital.com

Buckle Up, The Bull Market is Just Getting Started Dec 22, 2020

Thank you to the sponsor of this episode, Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.

Ryan Worch of Worch Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views that even after the massive post-COVID rally in stocks, the bull market is just getting started.

Content Sections (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

The most appropriate historical parallel from a price-pattern standpoint may be 1999 and the massive "tech melt-up" that ended in 2000 (3:21);
"We believe the market is in this secular bull market -- for various reasons," particularly monetary easing. This should "supercharge" a move higher, much as in 1999 (5:35);
The similarities and differences between now and the late 1990s (8:40);
The Fed is "completely transparent these days." They will be forced to raise rates at some point, but the markets may not stop rallying for a while (12:21);
Current excesses are nothing compared to those of the late 1990s. People are still spooked by what happened (16:44);
Background on the guest (22:06);
How he started his fund in 2008 (26:39);
How Worch Capital was able to avoid the February-March correction this year (28:54);
Why he still likes growth, and which sectors (34:54).

For More Information on the Guest

Website: WorchCapital.com
Twitter: @WorchCapital

The Next 'Blow Off Top' is Coming: Brody Howatt, Bellator Asset Management Dec 16, 2020

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Brody Howatt of Bellator Asset Management joins the podcast to discuss his view that the market is getting closer to a "blow off top." The guest also talks about what it was like working for Steven Cohen at SAC Capital and Point72 before starting his own firm.

Content Segments

(Spotify users can link to the section directly by clicking on the timestamp)

"A lot of it has to do with positioning" -- the major difference from before the election versus now (3:23);
There could be another 5% upside to the S&P, which should be seen as an opportunity to bring down exposure (4:59);
The run-off in Georgia is worth watching (7:17);
Look at illiquid names and potentially "take advantage of the up move to get out" (9:59);
The rotation out of big tech and into small caps has mostly played out already (12:51);
Background on the guest: son of a professional hockey player, Choate, West Point, Iraq, SAC Capital (17:51);
Bellator Asset Management, a veterans-owned business (22:43);
What it was like working for the legendary Steve Cohen, cold trading floor and all (25:15);
More about the Bellator strategy (29:51);
"The syndicate market never sleeps" (34:55).

More Information on the Guest:

Website: BellatorFunds.com

Codie Sanchez on the Trouble -- And Opportunities -- Brewing in Small Business Dec 10, 2020

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Codie Sanchez of Entourage Effect Capital joins the podcast to discuss her view that wide swaths of the U.S. economy, those linked to small business, have yet to see many benefits of the post-COVID economic recovery. Eventually, "the music will stop" and stock markets will see more sellers than buyers. To protect themselves, investors should seek recession-resistance sectors of the economy and try to access their own cash flows.

Content Segments

(Spotify users can link to the section directly by clicking on the timestamp)

There is a large segment of the market -- 47 million Americans who are employed by small business -- that has so far been left behind by the post-COVID economic recovery (4:02);
The leading macro and micro trends Sanchez is watching and how they are slowing (6:22);
Other things she watches to gauge small business growth, or in this case contraction (10:09);
All of this creates a buying opportunity for those seeking to gain a foothold in the "mom and pops" of the economy. Even retail investors can gain access (13:48);
Background on the guest (21:42);
The host introduces his three rules for this podcast, one of which is to not to discuss cannabis investing, which is promptly broken -- to get the guest's assessment of this asset class (24:35);
Investing in cannabis via public stock markets (27:20);
Legalization, decriminalization, and how it might happen federally in the U.S. (31:42);

More Information on the Guest:

Personal Website: CodieSanchez.com
Firm Website: EntourageEffectCapital.com
Substack: contrarianthinking.substack.com
Twitter: @Codie_Sanchez

How Bubbles and False Narratives Made Financial Markets, with Jamie Catherwood, Author of InvestorAmnesia.com Nov 25, 2020

Become a premium subscriber and get this podcast a day or more before the general public! No ads or announcements either! Contrarian.Supercast.Tech With the Dow Industrial Average hitting 30,000 on the day of this recording, revisiting historical booms and busts feels particularly timely. Jamie Catherwood, the author of InvestorAmnesia.com and a self-proclaimed financial history nerd, is a perfect guide to this discussion. We discuss booms in treasure hunting, bicycles, railroads, breweries, and of course tulips (which it turns out was greatly exaggerated. The guest debunks this). Content Segments (Spotify users can click on time stamp to link to the section directly)

What epoch in financial history is perhaps most apt in light of today's period? (3:38);
How long do these cycles typically last? (12:40);
Bubbles in transportation technology: bicycles, railroads (twice), now electrical vehicles (16:25);
"Tulip mania," often cited as the "mother of all financial bubbles" was in reality nowhere near as crazy as commonly believed (18:40 );
What are common elements that prick bubbles? (27:08);
The role of central banks and the money supply in the bursting of bubbles (29:59);
Background on the guest (40:36);
How he started his website on financial bubble history (45:44)
Contrarian investors through history (51:59);
Epilogue: bonus content for supporters of Tottenham Hotspur only (57:05).

More Information on the Guest

Website: InvestorAmnesia.com
Twitter: @InvestorAmnesia
Financial History Course (premium subscribers get 10% off the price).

Theron De Ris, Eschler Asset Management, on the Bullish Case for Precious Metals, Energy Stocks Nov 20, 2020

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Theron De Ris of London-based Eschler Asset Management joins the podcast to discuss why now may be an optimal time to invest in shares of precious metals companies and energy concerns. One of De Ris' favorite stocks -- and primary portfolio holdings -- is discussed at some length in the second half of the program.

Content Segments (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

Why Eschler Asset Management is bullish on precious metals (3:14) and why the pullback could be a buying opportunity for gold equities in particular (8:02);
The picture for energy and why it is reminiscent of the precious metals industry circa 2015 (9:03);
Demand from emerging markets, especially China, should persist despite economic difficulties (11:44), nor should renewable energy crimp demand in the short term (13:08);
Background on the guest and how he got started waiting tables in Frankfurt, Germany (18:03) and eventually started his own fund (23:41);
His process for finding ideas and picking stocks (26:34);
How royalty and streaming companies work. Most are focused on precious metals, including Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE:FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM), and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) (28:00);
The favorite stock and one of the fund's main holdings: EMX Royalties (NYSE:EMX) (30:07).

Additional Information on the Guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

Election Special: Watch for 'Blue Wave,' Followed by Rotation Into Value Stocks Nov 01, 2020

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Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the state of the economy on the eve of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

In Colbert's view, the economic recovery is "square root" shaped, with a quick bounce from the bottom followed by "the lazy L that comes after the easy V-part." Politically, he anticipates a Biden victory and return of the Senate to democratic control. This will eventually lead to a higher tax rate for corporations, which together with a coronavirus vaccine will cause a rotation into value stocks.

(Spotify users can access the segment directly by clicking on the corresponding timestamp)

The current state of the U.S. economy on the eve of the presidential election: "a deep and severe contraction with a pretty significant bounceback that is entirely V-shaped -- at the moment." (3:51);
The real unemployment rate is about 10% according to Colbert's calculation, almost exactly the same level that it was at the height of the Great Recession (5:21);
The "final stimulus bridge" is still lacking to get us to where a vaccine can enable a full reopening of the economy (8:18);
What if there are more serious lockdowns in Europe? (11:32);
The election: A Biden victory and "blue wave" will return democrat control of the Senate (13:27);
From an investing perspective, the biggest change (and opportunity) will be taking advantage of a rotation into value stocks (16:50);
This because democrats will increase corporate taxes, which will disproportionately hurt growth companies (18:59);
Worst-case scenarios include the deficit (24:56);
Employment may not grow very quickly. An 8% unemployment rate may still be a year or more away (27:48);
The firm's asset allocation for 2021 and how that has changed since January (29:11).

Read Colbert's latest presentation here.

Not intended as investment advice.

Opportunities May Be Brewing in Cyclical Stocks: Christian Putz, ARR Investments Oct 21, 2020

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Christian Putz is an Austrian-born hedge fund manager currently based in London. His fund has outperformed benchmarks this year during one of the more unpredictable periods in recent memory.

Behind this success is an understanding and appreciation of the big-picture macro environment. Only when that is taken into account does the fund look at individual stocks.

Right now the macro picture is mostly benign with the U.S. election looming. Many sectors remain strong. There are buying opportunities brewing, especially in the oil and gas industry.

Content (Spotify users can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

The macro picture versus individual stocks and where things stand right now (7:28);
Economically, things look rather benign. Buying opportunities may abound in the energy industry especially (13:09);
Risks "are more to the upside," with steepening yield curve. This may bode well for the financial sector (16:05);
Recent months have seen a rebound in copper prices. That may be overdone. There is a bear market case to be made post election (18:38);
Background on the guest (22:39);
The fund's current portfolio allocation (32:10);
The benefits of utilities right now (33:42);

For more information on the guest:

Website: ARRinvestments.com
LinkedIn

Not intended as investment advice.

James Altucher and Where (Not) to Invest Ahead of the Election -- And Beyond Oct 14, 2020

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James Altucher needs to introduction. For several decades he has been an outspoken contrarian on matters ranging from investing to politics, society, entrepreneurialism, and all points in between.

We planned to limit this conversation to investing. That didn't happen. Instead Altucher spoke on a wide range of issues -- including investing -- and introduced some items that he hadn't discussed before publicly.

If you do want to skip to the investing content, it starts at (20:26).

Content Segments

(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)

We start with a discussion of Altucher's recent controversial articles, about the death of New York and why he's not voting in next month's election (4:21);
"Why should I have to choose between two different crime families?" (8:57);
Still, there should be a good turnout this year. Altucher does not expect anybody to follow his lead in not voting -- and is not suggesting they do, anyway (12:57);
Who he thinks is going to win the election, and why (19:41);
Views on markets at present (20:26);
The worst-case scenario for the election and beyond (24:23);
Muni bonds and closed-end funds: sound boring, but there are opportunities (27:32);
Additional background on the guest. What were the major turning points in his life and his career? (33:18);
Warren Buffett, the OG of investing (39:45);
What are the growth areas he is excited about today? (42:14);
What to look for, and what to avoid, when it comes to "fallen angels" (46:24);
His upcoming projects, including a new company that facilitates video and audio streaming, and podcasting (50:35);
Altucher remains in NYC, despite what media might have reported (53:15)

For More Information on the Guest:

The Real 'Melt-Up Is Still Ahead of Us': David Hunter Oct 06, 2020

This episode was recorded Sept. 30 and released to premium subscribers on Oct. 1. Become a premium subscriber for just $8/month or $88/year.

David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his vision of a "parabolic melt-up" in risk assets that will presage the next market crash.

What we've seen since late March was not the real melt-up, Hunter says. Most of the gains are still ahead, in fact the coming months should see the final (and most dramatic) period of the rally. Then things get ugly.

Content (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly):

What we saw in September was a "fake out sell off". We will regroup and see the real meltup later this year (3:25);
The target for the S&P 500 is still as high as 4,500. The NASDAQ could go as high as 15,000. The final move into the secular top should begin this month and will continue through the election and quite possibly beyond (4:15);
A new stimulus package by the U.S. Congress may be the catalyst that extinguishes all the bearishness currently seen in the market (6:11);
The election and its aftermath surely pose a risk. What about the coronavirus? (8:49);
The Fed could resume stimulus measures as well. Indeed, Powell & Co may have already started (15:11);
After the melt-up there will be a crash that will be very ugly indeed (17:35);
A Fed policy misstep will likely be the cause (19:04);
No, a Biden administration will not likely lead to a new Fed chairman. The crash will unleash additional stimulus and loosening measures by the Fed -- another overreaction -- in the second half of 2021 that will eventually lead to inflation, though not until about 2023 (23:43);
"This is a call people are going to want to lock me up for...I think you will see potentially a full retrace of the last 40 years of declining inflation and interest rates" (28:45);
This inflation cycle will result in commodity prices "you can't imagine:" $10,000 gold, $15 copper, $300/barrel oil (29:52);
Ultimately you may see "a collapse of the entire system" that will make the 1930s "look like a picnic." (38:14)

Find out about David Hunter's newsletter by following him on Twitter @DaveHContrarian and sending him a direct message.

Not intended as investment advice.

Finding Next Generation Growth Stocks, With Liz Hall Sep 30, 2020

Become a premium subscriber today for just $8 per month or $88/year. Get early access to podcasts, bonus episodes, transcripts, locked groups on our Slack channel and Discord server, and a whole lot more: Contrarian.Supercast.Tech

Liz Hall, well known on the Twittersphere as @LizQuidity, joins the podcast to discuss some of her methods for locating the next generation of growth stocks.

Hall doesn't have an investment process per se. She lets investment ideas find her by exploring niche interest and going down "rabbit holes" on YouTube and Reddit.

Content (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

How to let the investment idea "come to you" by locating niche areas of interest at their source (2:38);
One example from earlier this year: Games Workshop Group (GMWKF), publisher of the Warhammer game (4:34);
Some more on her research methods (10:48);
What led her to Nintendo (13:16);
Background on the guest (17:22);
Brief discussion of Tesla (TSLA) and Nikola (NKLA) (23:32).

For more on Hall's research process, visit her website LizardBrain.Substack.com

Not intended as investment advice.

Economic Growth Prospects Are Better Than Advertised Sep 23, 2020

Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics joins the podcast to discuss his view that economic recovery in the U.S. is on firmer footing than widely believed.

Content (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

Downside risks do exist. Flu season is approaching but the data is painting a more encouraging picture (3:37);
The top leading indicators are predicting a business cycle rise in 2021, led by the consumer (6:17);
Employment is a lagging indicator. Other metrics are more telling about the economy's future prospects (9:53);
The election and how that might impact things (11:50);
Background on the guest (18:31);
The prospects for commercial real estate. Is the office doomed? (30:34)
Current opportunities: Look to the defense sector and export-intensive industries in the U.S. (34:44);

For more information on the guest:

Twitter: @achausovsky
Website: ITReconomics.com

Reminder: Become a premium subscriber for just $8/month. Details here

The 'Weird Portfolio': Adding Gold and Real Estate to Traditional Allocation Sep 16, 2020

Value Stock Geek, well known on the Twittersphere as @ValueStockGeek, joins the podcast to discuss his concept of the "weird portfolio."

This portfolio allocates to gold and real estate as well as stocks and Treasuries.

The guest also revisits his prediction from his first visit to the podcast last year, when he said retail stocks were undervalued.

The paper explaining this concept in more detail can be read in its entirety here.

Content Segments (Spotify users can link to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):

Background on constructing the "weird portfolio" (3:04);
How exactly is the portfolio allocated? (5:14);
Is gold still an effective disaster hedge? (8:55);
The equity portion of the portfolio (14:02);
What makes up the small-cap value portion? (17:04);
Is there really enough diversification offered by international equities over their U.S. counterparts? (19:03);
How the real estate allocation is accomplished (21:05);
Revisiting the contrarian calls from last summer (27:17).

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John Kay on Radical Uncertainty Sep 02, 2020

University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, "Radical Uncertainty" and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.

Content (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):

The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
It is "almost impossible to overstate" the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
What's an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren't the same thing (12:53);
Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
Background on the guest (30:28);
What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).

More Information on the Guest

Website: JohnKay.com
Twitter: @ProfJohnKay
Book: Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future (also available on Amazon).

Not intended as investment advice.

Pulling Back the Curtain on Emerging Markets Distressed Debt Aug 26, 2020

Genna Lozovsky of Sandglass Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss investing in emerging markets distressed debt and credit.

Sandglass Capital invests in sovereign and corporate credit across global EM, typically seeking to be a liquidity provider "at prices that we think significantly underestimate the recovery potential of those assets."

Highlights (Spotify users can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp):

Short background on emerging markets and how we arrived at the current situation (2:03);
What to look for in terms of entry points for investments (4:53);
The fund's involvement in Argentina (10:00);
Where is Sandglass looking to invest now? (15:05);
Background on the guest (20:32);
Investing in local currency versus USD-denominated paper (22:55);
What kind of information does a fund like this look for? (26:07);
What's the typical holding period for these investments? (29:05);

Additional Information on the Guest

Website: SandglassCapital.com;
LinkedIn page;

Not intended as investment advice.

Math and Algorithms: Overrated When it Comes to Investing Aug 07, 2020

Eric Chung, chief investment officer of Lighthaven Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his view that math, financial models, and algorithms are insufficient when it comes to investing.

"The widespread use of math in the investment management industry, while it can be helpful ... I think there's been some pretty significant overreliance on these things," says Chung.

Content Highlights (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):

The example of Long Term Capital Management and how it got him to take notice (2:41);
Not enough has been written about the fallacy risk parity (13:59);
Background on the guest (24:36);
Lighthaven Capital's investing strategy (28:30);
Chung's decision to de-risk the portfolio in Q1 (31:49);
The "external, exogenous factors" that go into his risk models (34:59);
A Joseph Biden presidency and what it could mean for markets (37:39);
What is the market getting wrong right now? (39:05);
Contrarian opinion on the potential Biden administration's stance toward China (46:42);
Reasons for optimism (49:49).

More Information on the Guest:

Website: LightHavenCapital.com
Video about CV-19 that was trending on LinkedIn:
Twitter: @LighthavenFund
Eric Chung on LinkedIn
YouTube channel

Not intended as investment advice.

The COVID Disconnect And The Coming 'Melt Up' In Markets Jul 28, 2020

The evolution of media has led to a "disconnect" between the reality of coronavirus and public perception of the pandemic, according to Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research.

"We are on the precipice of COVID almost being over, or functionally as a major impact on society, mortality, etc.," says Abeyta. This, along with unprecedented liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve, will lead to a melt-up in global financial markets.

Highlights (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

The disconnect in popular political and economic analysis and the actual situation with COVID in the U.S. (4:38);
Look at the numbers in aggregate; they are clearly declining (8:52);
The war on COVID is almost over and the coronavirus could effectively be over "in six weeks" (12:52);
What does all this mean for investors? Look at gyms and movie theaters (16:07);
A simple options strategy to play the coming melt-up that looks a lot like 1999 (18:07);
Three contrarian views and why the coming melt-up will be the best investing and trading environment in a generation (24:48);
Background on the guest (27:33);
How do you get your ideas? (39:28);
The "V-word" and why it doesn't matter and doesn't work (41:10);
The case for Match.com (42:48);
"Shorting sucks" (45:04);
Asset management is a religion (49:21);
Short discussion of risks (51:12).

More Information on the Guest

Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com;
Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta.

Not intended as investment advice.

Time to Build a Position in Semiconductor Manufacturers? Jul 14, 2020

Siddarth Singhai of Ironhold Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views of semiconductor manufacturers and auto parts suppliers. He also shares his bullish views on industry sectors in his native India.

Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly):

Singhai's look at the macro situation with COVID (3:27);
The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry (5:59);
Long-term prospects are "fantastic," and the macroeconomic environment should allow for the opportunity to build positions (8:06);
Electrical cars will provide a tailwind to auto manufacturers (10:40);
Background on the guest (13:52);
The most profitable industry in India (17:19);
Favorite ideas in semiconductor suppliers (27:04);
Favorite ideas in automotive suppliers (32:14).

More Information on the Guest:

Ironhold Capital is a value-based hedge fund in New York focused on leveraging both the Indian and U.S. markets. Its priority is to preserve capital, which is accomplished by buying high quality businesses with no leverage for cheap, followed by layers of risk management.
Website: IronholdCapital.com
YouTube Channel: Leaders in Business and Investing
Podcast: via Spotify and Apple Podcasts

Not intended as investment advice.

Prepare for the 'L-Shaped' Recovery: David Neuhauser, Livermore Partners Jun 30, 2020

David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners joins the podcast to discuss his expectation of a "L-shaped" economic recovery and corresponding sideways market activity in the years to come.

There are still opportunities for investors. Here Neuhauser is bullish on certain companies tied to hard assets like oil and copper.

Content (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly)

The "best days" of the market rally have likely passed (3:00), expect more rangebound markets in the short run (4:24);
What this period of low growth means for markets in the medium term (8:16);
What it means to be a contrarian today (9:39);
Background on the guest (12:11);
How he spends his time in terms of activist situations (17:40);
More specifics on opportunities in energy markets. Hint: it's not in shale (20:31);
Concerns about the demand picture? (24:09);
There will be a "massive reset" in markets and fundamentals will take hold, causing "further grinding" to the downside, especially amid high-priced securities (26:45);
Neuhauser's process for finding opportunities (27:46).

For more information on the guest:

Website: LivermorePartners.com
Twitter: @LivermoreOps
Video of presentation at Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference No. 2

Not intended as investment advice.

The Case for Investing in Sports Teams, With Jonathan Boyar Jun 24, 2020

Jonathan Boyar, principal at Boyar Value Group, joins the podcast to discuss the merits of investing in the public equity of professional sports teams.

Boyar is specifically bullish on the Liberty Braves Group (NASDAQ: BATRA), a tracking stock that consists of the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball team and real estate development.

Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly):

Sports teams as investments and two that have the guest's attention at present (3:34);
Liberty Braves discussion (5:50);
Why now? "You're at a point of maximum pessimism," with MLB specifically (8:24);
The opportunity brought by sports gambling (14:06);
Background on the guest (16:38);
The Boyar Value Group's investing style (19:15) and recent purchase of Twitter (20:50);
The makeup of the firm's portfolio and how it deviates from the S&P 500 (24:22);
The opportunity with Hanesbrands (26:40).

For more information on the guest:

Website: BoyarValueGroup.com
Twitter: @BoyarValue
Video of presentation at Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference No. 2

Not intended as investment advice.

Picking Spots in Volatility, Interest Rate Markets, With Chris Nicholson Jun 16, 2020

Hedge fund portfolio manager Chris Nicholson joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on volatility, interest rates, and other markets.

Forecasting these assets has become increasingly problematic in recent years, but there are a few thing Nicholson looks to in an effort to identify opportunities for arbitrage.

Content (Spotify listeners can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp):

U.S. equity prices are determined largely by two axes (3:40);
Inflation expectations have been, well, inflated. This speaks for the relative value of certain bonds (7:03);
What drives inflation anyway? (11:38);
Where to look in currencies (19:05);
Nicholson's Number One recommendation for investors: take the cheap borrow. Where to put it is the question (21:40);
Sometimes being contrarian is not the smart move. This may be one of those times, at least in FX markets (23:38);
China and the yuan versus the Japanese yen (29:24);
Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan (33:06);
The portfolio manager's concern about a second wave of COVID (35:40);
Other issues that could be catalysts in 2020 (40:39);
How to trade these views (46:18);

For more information on the guest:

Twitter: @2Christopher
LinkedIn: ChrisNicholson

Not intended as investment advice

The Methods of a Short Activist: Gabriel Grego, Quintessential Capital Management Jun 09, 2020

Gabriel Grego of Quintessential Capital joins the podcast to discuss his short activist strategy.

Grego finds three or four "high conviction" ideas to trade a year. His process is exhaustive but straightforward, though few managers have the stomach to replicate it. The reasons for this are discussed in the second half of the podcast.

Content (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment)

How it all starts. Finding the right target is crucial. Grego's focus on "extreme corporate catastrophic situations" (1:39);
Some of the typical "red flags" to look for (3:43);
Trendy industries are often clusters for fraudulent behavior. COVID-19 is the most recent example (6:01);
Narrowing the target list and creating a thesis (10:37);
The final step: "boots on the ground" research (16:46);
Background on the guest (21:57);
Activist shorting is "scary stuff" (25:38);
More terrifying than being a paratrooper? (27:29);
Background on QCM's fund and current exposure (30:28);
How QCM has dealt with the events of 2020, including a rare (and successful) attempt to time markets in March (34:05);
Chinese companies traded in the U.S. look "very very interesting," though Chinese fraud is "a different beast" (42:14).

More Information on the Guest:

Website: QCMFunds.com
Twitter: @QCMFunds
Email tips to info@qcmfunds.com
Watch Grego's presentation on Akazoo at the Inaugural Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference

Not intended as investment advice.

Finding 'Disruptive Ideas' In Autos, Media, Telecoms May 27, 2020

Vitaliy Katsenelson of ContrarianEdge.com joins the podcast to discuss his current views on markets and his recent thesis on automakers.

That industry has been disrupted by the entrance of Tesla. Other industries face a similar fate and Katsenelson discusses some of the winners and losers.

Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to reach the segment directly)

The automotive industry faces an "unstoppable" tsunami and Tesla is at the forefront (1:58)
Tesla as "iphone"-type disrupter (7:27)
What other companies are exciting? Recent investment Twitter (14:12)
Value versus growth: Knowledge is cumulative (16:07)
Background on the guest (22:08)
Views on coronavirus (28:39)
Makeup of the portfolio and one notable recent addition (33:58)

For More Information on the Guest:

Website: ContrarianEdge.com and its audio equivalent, Investor.fm
Twitter: @VitaliyK
Investment service IMA
"Why The Survival Of Traditional Carmakers Is Far From Certain": link to paper

Not intended as investment advice.

Chinese Economic Reforms Are Already a Thing of the Past: Dexter Roberts May 20, 2020

Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book "The Myth of Chinese Capitalism."

In Roberts' view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China's middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country's population, remains well below the middle class -- and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies.

The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their "pivot" to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world.

Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly)

The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39)
The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35)
The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China's "factory to the world" model (9:21)
Authorities' options are very limited (10:45)
Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China's middle class are gone (13:10)
Background on the gust (20:15)
What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14)
Brief discussion of Hong Kong: "Don't think that the protests are over." (30:22)

For More Information on the Guest:

Website: DexterRoberts.com
Twitter: @DTiffRoberts
The Myth of Chinese Capitalism: The Worker, the Factory, and the Future of the World (Amazon page)

Healthcare, Tech Stocks May Not Be As Defensive As Believed, With Chris Brown of Aristides Capital May 13, 2020

Christopher Brown of Aristides Capital joins the podcast to discuss his investment strategy, which has produced positive returns every calendar year since 2008.

In Brown's view, healthcare and information technology stocks should not be treated as defensive investments that will protect portfolios in times of stress -- especially after their recent run-up. There are reasons many companies in this sector are overvalued and could see their shares drop as the economy begins to see further difficulties from coronavirus.

Aristides Capital has an active short book, which framed most of the second half of the conversation.

Content Segments: (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)

Why investors' thinking about defensive stocks may be misguided (4:49)
Growth stocks' recent performance is reminiscent of the late-1990s tech bubble (7:05)
The concerns with healthcare stocks (11:45)
Background on the guest (15:07)
Some of the red flags short sellers look for and why the "big picture" is often more pertinent (20:22)
Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: INO) discussion (22:52)
CytoDyn Inc. (OTC: CYDY) discussion (25:44)
Vuzix Corp. (NASDAQ: VUZI) discussion (28:37)
Accelerate Diagnostics (NASDAQ: AXDX) discussion (30:59)
Insider purchases are not always a bullish indicator (35:02)
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) discussion, at the guest's suggestion (host didn't want to go there originally) and why it could be an indicator for future market direction (36:17)
Reasons to be bearish on markets and the economy (39:17)
How to protect your portfolio against inflation (42:13)

For more information on the guest:

Website: AristidesCapital.com
Twitter: @MidwestHedgie

Not intended as investment advice.

The Anti-Quant Quant, Beating Indexes With Three ETFs May 06, 2020

Chad Glauser of Denver-based Alpine Quantitative Management joins the podcast to discuss his fund's strategy of using just three ETFs as a way to manage risk, gauge volatility, and produce returns.

The three ETFs track short-term Treasuries, long-term bonds, and the S&P 500. Alpine has been actively trading the strategy since late 2017 after an incubation period of about two years. The approach has worked, with the fund beating the hedge fund index for 22 straight months (and counting).

Content: (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)

About the strategy: quick background and using volatility as an indicator (1:10)
The "real-world example" of what happened in January and February, and how the fund adopted (2:42)
How often, and quickly, the portfolio adjusts and why it is 100% allocated at all times (4:39)
The current view of markets (5:46)
Why Alpine views itself as the "anti-quant" quant (9:04)
Background on Chad Glauser (12:35)
How to get in touch (20:04)

For more information on the guest:

Alpine Quantitative Management website: Alpine-Quant.com
Chad Glauser's LinkedIn

Not intended as investment advice.

Buy Individual Stocks or Bonds, Not ETFs: Maya Joelson, Metapoint Advisors Apr 29, 2020

Maya Joelson, founder and president of Metapoint Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss her view of exchange-traded funds.

These instruments are seen as efficient and cheap ways for investors, especially retail investors, to gain access to various asset classes. But this is misguided, especially when it comes to ETFs tracking bond markets. Even stock ETFs aren't always a good idea. Investors are better served picking individual securities themselves (or hiring somebody to do it for them).

Content (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment)

A short history on the rise of ETFs in the U.S. (2:10)
Why bond ETFs don't make as much sense as equity ETFs (6:49)
How long before investors get wise to this? (10:41)
What about stock ETFs, how efficient are they? (15:20)
Background on the guest (20:24)
"Better Safe Than SARS-y": Looking back on the call to derisk portfolios in early February and where we are now (25:43)
Buy stocks that should do well in this environment: consumer staples, healthcare, Kraft Heinz, Chewy (29:53)

For more information on the guest:

Website: MetaPointAdvisors.com
Twitter: @MMetapoint
Link to research publications discussed on the podcast:
- Strategic Single Stock Investing: Now is the Time to Refine Your Portfolio
- Better Safe Than SARS-y: Understanding The Risks of Staying Invested

Not intended as investment advice

Market 'Melt Up' Will Continue Until Late Summer, Before Onset of 'Global Deflationary Bust' Apr 14, 2020

David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, has for some time predicted a final "melt up" stage of the market cycle before markets crash.

This stage is now underway as markets recover from an initial sell-off caused by the coronavirus (which Hunter admits he did not and could not have predicted).

What comes next is a "secular top that I expect to be the high-water mark for decades to come," he says. After markets peak around late summer, a "global deflationary bust" will ensue, with as much as 80% downside for equities.

Content: (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly):

Target of 4,000 for the S&P as part of "the final melt up" (2:23)
The downside target. Forget the "reset narrative" in the short term (10:39). Markets should drop by 80% from the top (11:58)
Unprecedented leverage doesn't leave policymakers much time (14:09)
Background on David: 47 years in financial markets (18:46)
The current crisis in historical context (26:35)
Deflation allows for liquidity injections. Until it creates inflation (32:01)
Discussing the potential political and social fallout from the coming economic crisis (36:12)
How deflation will eventually turn to inflation (40:20)
Discussion of the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status (45:56)
Bullish outlook for gold and silver (51:37)

For more information on the guest:

Twitter: @DaveHContrarian
LinkedIn

Not intended as investment advice.

Bargain Hunting in Frontier Markets, With Hedi Ben Mlouka of FIM Partners Apr 07, 2020

Hedi Ben Mlouka joins the podcast to discuss his views of frontier markets in light of the coronavirus crisis.

Ben Mlouka has been investing in frontier markets for more than a decade as CIO and CEO of Dubai-based FIM Partners. He sees the asset class in general as being at greater risk of being impacted by fallout from the COVID-19 epidemic. The political risks are particularly vexxing.

Content segments: (Spotify users can skip to the section by clicking on the timestamp)

Is this a good time to be investing in frontier markets? (6:03)
The first part of the equation: Frontier markets are less prepared for the coronavirus than developed markets (7:05)
The impact will be larger from a healthcare perspective while the policy response can be expected to be weaker, especially in fragile economies (9:56)
The crisis will expose the "downside of globalization," precluding a "V-shaped" recovery (11:30)
Where are the opportunities? Oil importers like Pakistan and Egypt can benefit (15:26)
Speaking oil, forget about the demand shock for now. Oil prices should recover to $50 or $60 per barrel (18:57)
Beyond the macro picture, industries with access to capital are preferred. Avoid travel, hospitality, banks. (21:07)
Healthcare, education, retail, and consumer discretionary companies should recover over the long term (23:56)
Political risk is a major concern for many countries in frontier markets. Who's most vulnerable? (31:09)

More information on the guest:

FIM Partners website
LinkedIn

Not intended as investment advice.

Coronavirus Crisis Continues: Expect 'Rolling' Recessions Mar 23, 2020

Rachel Ziemba, a geo-economic and country risk expert, joins the podcast to discuss the continuing, and intensifying economic impact from the coronavirus.

It's become clear that the crisis has caused a demand shock that will likely bring "rolling recessions" in its wake. The most likely scenario appears to be for a "W-shaped" recovery. In the meantime, there is still a lot that go wrong.

Content Segments

(Spotify users can click on time stamp to link to section directly)

The demand shock, shift in demand, and rolling recessions (4:27)
Unique characteristics of the coronavirus crisis (7:57)
Oil and oil-producing countries may be at most risk. Sino-U.S. relations can be expected to suffer (16:35)
Background on the guest (25:55)
Discussion of historical parallels: some similarities, but there is no precedent (30:16)
The unlikely prospect of a "V-shaped" recovery (36:26)
How deep might the trough be? (39:55)
Are there any safe harbors from this? (47:57)

For more information on the guest:

Website: ZiembaInsights.com
Twitter: @REZiemba

Not intended as investment advice.

The Medical Opinion on Coronavirus: A Bonafide Doctor Shares His Views Mar 20, 2020

Dr. Robert Bednarz joins the podcast to provide his professional opinion on the coronavirus: Just how serious of a health crisis is COVID-19? And how long might it persist until economies around the world can spring to life again?

Dr. Bednarz records from his home in Dundee, Scotland, where he is currently under self-quarantine. Unlike typical guests on this podcast, he has no experience or knowledge of investing or the economy. To that effect, this episode contains no stock picks or tangible views on economics. However, the medical view he supplies is certainly valuable for all members of the investing community.

Content

(Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the time stamp in question)

What is happening in Italy can happen anywhere (2:43)
The cases and fatalities in Scotland and how hospitals are dealing with the effects (5:47)
Hope relies on the local communities and people should "just stay home" (8:04)
The chances of a mutation of the virus exist, but it is unlikely to be more lethal than the current iteration (10:41)
Warmer weather should help (13:39)
The worst case scenario scaring medical professionals (15:31)
What medicines are being used for treatments? Antivirals show some promise (19:30)
Masks are useful only for those with symptoms. But buyer beware (23:23)

For more information on the guest:

Dr. Bednarz hosts a podcast, The Patient Will See You Now, available on all podcasting platforms, including iTunes and Spotify
Twitter: @Robert_Bednarz

Not intended as investment advice.

Coronavirus Crisis: Assessing the Economic Damage and the Way Forward Mar 17, 2020

Marc Chandler, a political economist and currently managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, joins the podcast to provide his assessment of the coronavirus impact on the global economy.

Content:

(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment)

This crisis is different, not brought about by the economic cycle but by an exogenous shock (3:15)
Assessing the fiscal and monetary response by policymakers (4:36)
Will there be a "V-shaped" recovery? (6:55)
Recovery in Q3, Q4, but growth will be limited (12:07)
The crisis may accelerate the move to a cashless society (13:12)
Background on the guest (17:43)
What's something the market is missing? (27:39)
The Age of Surplus (34:13)
Greater accountability for the Federal Reserve (38:21)
The crisis could result in expansion to enfranchisement. To 16-year olds? (43:21)

For more information on the guest:

Website: MarcToMarket.com
Twitter: @MarcMakingSense
Bannockburn Global Forex LLC website

Not intended as investment advice.

Oil Sell-Off Special Edition: Inside The Saudi-Russia Supply Standoff Mar 10, 2020

Kirill Zadov, political analyst at Russian-language radio station RUSA Radio, joins the podcast in this special episode to discuss the recent sell-off in oil prices.

Zadov has some unique insights into the Russian oil economy and the political economy of the Middle East. His prediction: Saudi Arabia and Russia will have to come together to agree to output cuts, and soon. How low will oil go in the interim? Here too Zadov has some views.

Segments:(Spotify listeners can skip to sections by clicking on the time stamp)

What's motivating Russia on their decision to not cut output? (4:02)
Why Russia and Saudi Arabia need to cut output, and soon (7:07)
What other countries in the region are affected by this? (9:19)
How long will it take for Russia and Saudi Arabia to agree to cuts? (10:28)
Background on the guest (11:35)
How low will oil prices go? (13:26)

For more information on the guest:

Not intended as investment advice.

Defending Value, Shorting Selectively With Tobias Carlisle Mar 03, 2020

Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Fund LLC, is well known in value investing circles. He defends this method while also pointing to the short opportunities that have emerged recently.

Where the macro picture is concerned, the coronavirus is still front and center. Here Carlisle expects corporate earnings to be impacted and doesn't anticipate central banks being able to help much. (This podcast was recorded before the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut announcement on March 3).

Highlights:

The case for value investing (4:28)
Coronavirus and the impact on supply chains (7:36) and how the market will react this year (8:47)
The fund's short position in Tesla (12:58)
Favorite contrarian ideas right now, including short Etsy (21:25)
Exposure to energy (27:15)

More information on the guest:

AcquirersMultiple.com for podcasts and other materials;
AcquirersFunds.com for information on the firm;
AcquirersFund.com for information about the fund;
Fund ticker: ZIG
Twitter: @Greenbackd

Not intended as investment advice.

Global Crisis Investing Through 'Psychological Arbitrage' Feb 18, 2020

Philip Reade, founder and managing partner at Helm Investment Partners, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to crisis investing on a global basis.

Reade does not follow the "buy when everybody else panics" maxim. Instead, he searches first for a country that is emerging from a crisis and then buys that market's largest, most liquid public equities. Helm Investment Partners seeks to capture shifts in the "psychological cycle" where the perception of a market changes.

Content:

Reade's approach and how it's different from value investing (1:12)
Identifying buying opportunities (5:35)
Timing the purchases is just as important as identifying the opportunity (15:30)
Some of the firms' investments in 2019 (19:09)
When to sell positions (20:30)
Reade's "origin story" of how he came to investing (23:51)
Where are the opportunities now? (30:30) Greece (31:29), Turkey (32:09), Chile (33:36), Pakistan (35:04)
China and the coronavirus (37:57)
Potential future investment targets in Egypt, Mexico, Argentina (39:25)
Why there is still upside in Greece (42:42)

For more information about Philip Reade and Helm Investment Partners, visit HelmIP.com.

Not intended as investment advice.

Private Credit is Fentanyl, With Gregory Obenshain, Verdad Capital Feb 11, 2020

Gregory Obenshain, director of credit at Verdad Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his concerns about private credit investing.

Obenshain and Verdad Capital founder Dan Rasmussen recently penned an article in Institutional Investor: "High-Yield Was Oxy. Private Credit Is Fentanyl." Subtitle: "Investors are hooked, and it won't end well."

In this 29-minute conversation, Obenshain tells listeners about his thesis.

Content:

How private equity has become the dominant player in this market (4:02)
The lending is a lot more dangerous and indeed riskier than the high-yield bond market (7:39)
Obenshain's background (15:03)
Historical returns for private credit investments (19:50)
Ramifications of new lenders entering the market (22:22)
Potential timing of an unwind (24:17)
More constructive ideas for investors (25:27)

For more information on the guest and his firm: VerdadCap.com

Not intended as investment advice.

News Headlines: The 'Subtle Fallacy' Confounding Investors Jan 29, 2020

January 2020 has been an eventful month. Geopolitical events and other exogenous factors have roiled global financial markets. In the end, they may not matter all that much where the trajectory of the global economy is concerned. In fact, they may not matter at all.

Nicholas Reece of Merk Research shares his thesis that there is a "subtle fallacy" that events in the news are important to the global economy and financial markets. This is due to evolutionary biography, behavioral biases, and the nature of the news business in the digital age.

In a wide-ranging conversation, Reece tells listeners how to cut through the noise to identify data that has real economic repercussions. One conclusion is that in 2020 (at least so far) to be a contrarian means being optimistic.

Content:

The "subtle fallacy" of news (1:32)
Humankind's innate negativity bias (2:43)
So what news is relevant to the economy and to markets? (4:09)
Discerning the signal from the noise for investors (5:50)
Economic damage from the coronavirus (7:53)
"Unknown unknowns" (9:32)
Nick Reece's "origin story" as an investor (12:41)
The changing public perception of the Federal Reserve (20:30)
Being positive is contrarian (26:21)
A short discourse on political commentary (27:25)
Favorite economic indicators that can supply contrarian signals (30:19)

For more information about Nick Reece and Merk Research, visit their website.

Energy Markets at a Turning Point, With Economist Peter Sainsbury Jan 23, 2020

Economist and energy specialist Peter Sainsbury joins the podcast to discuss his thesis, that the fossil fuel industry faces a dilemma similar to what confounded big tobacco a generation ago.

Oil companies in particular are starting to be seen as "sin stocks" with institutions divesting themselves on ethical grounds. Much like tobacco companies reinvented themselves in the 1990s, energy companies can undergo a similar renaissance. Indeed the process of oil companies divesting harmful assets is already underway. This causes opportunities for investors. But first, expect headwinds.

Content:

Peter Sainsbury introduces his thesis (1:59)
The impact on energy companies' share prices (8:16)
What about alternate energy? (10:27)
Background on the guest (15:58) and other areas of interest, including gold and gold miners (18:15)
Palladium may be frothy. One little-known indicator worth tracking (23:16)
Potential catalysts for supply-side disruption in energy markets (27:08)

For more information on Peter Sainsbury:

Visit his website, Materials-Risk.com
Follow him on Twitter
Check out his books, Commodities, 50 Things You Really Need to Know and Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits and Profits in the Commodity Casino

Not intended as investment advice.

The Next Market Meltdown is Coming Jan 14, 2020

Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his bearish views on the market at the start of 2020.

There are reasons to believe a market correction is overdue, Stanton says. Risk is everywhere: geopolitical, volatility, repo markets. A drop of 18% to 20% can be expected before March 31.

Highlights:

"Rest assured, we're heading for a correction and I would argue it's going to be terrifying when it comes" (5:43)
The "Phase 1" deal with China is a temporary measure that will be revoked if Donald Trump wins reelection in November (9:55)
A likely catalyst for a correction is in the repo market (11:36)
A "volatility-led sell off" is likely before the end of the first quarter (16:12)
Where's inflation? (26:34)
It may not take an actual headline for investors to decide equities are overbought (31:01)
Background on Stanton's firm, San Diego-based Sunrise Capital (38:03)
The "origin story": Background on Stanton himself (53:03)
What should retail investors do, right now? (1:02:49)

Not intended as investment advice.

For more information on Sunrise Capital: www.sunrisecapital.com

Healthcare, Russian Natural Gas and Other Ideas for Investing in 2020, With Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital Dec 18, 2019

Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his investing strategy and ideas for 2020.

Contents: The case for Russian natural gas companies (3:05) and healthcare stocks (5:28). What's to like about UnitedHealth (9:24). Background on Tomicki (13:48). Handicapping the 2020 US presidential election (20:50). The outlook for growth in the US (23:01).

Austin, Tex.-based LRT Capital is a long-biased, concentrated equity fund started by Tomicki in 2012. For more on LRT Capital, visit the firm's website.

Unpacking 'The Finance Curse,' With Nicholas Shaxson, Author Dec 05, 2019

Nicholas Shaxson, author of The Finance Curse, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis, that the financial sector is at the root of many problems facing economies and society, and where to look for possible solutions.

Content

The paradox: Too much finance can make you poorer (1:47)
How did we get here? (3:11)
Angola as the genesis of the finance curse concept (7:58)
Rising inequality. Where might solutions lie? (14:11)
Debunking private equity (18:34)
Antitrust solutions may be the answer (27:06)
What sectors are most at risk? (33:19)

For More Information

The Finance Curse book website, including ordering information
(Or just go to the Amazon page directly)
Nick's Twitter account
Nick's Guardian articles
Nicholas Shaxson Wikipedia page

Investors' Worsening Mood is a Bullish Indicator: Nick From Demonetized Blog Nov 20, 2019

The collective mood and risk appetite of investors may be turning more cautious, but this makes for a more optimistic outlook for risk assets. The author of the Demonetized Blog (and corresponding Twitter account) joins the podcast to discuss this concept and what it means for the economy and markets going forward.

Content:

Investor surveys as contrarian indicators (2:40) and the "basic principle" that broader conservative positioning makes for bullishness (5:13)
Nick's "origin story" as an investor (13:36)
Timing is everything. How much longer does this bull market have to run? (17:45)
Interest rates should stay low indefinitely (20:37) and the economy is not facing an imminent recession (22:00)
Prospects of a new president in the U.S. (24:12)
What this all means for asset allocation (26:05) and why investors should keep wary of inflation (28:25)

Not intended as investment advice.

Andrew Redleaf on Today's Low-Rate, Low-Growth, Restricted-Access-to-Capital World Nov 12, 2019

Andrew Redleaf is best known as the founder of Whitebox Advisors, a hedge fund that at its peak managed $6 billion. He joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that the world is increasingly bifurcated between those who have access to cheap capital and those who do not.

Content: The contrarian take on low interest rates (2:33). Who has access to capital (5:16)? Small banks an outlier (7:28). The macro outlook (9:02). Andrew's "origin story" (12:10). Cultural elements of financial markets (19:11). Biggest concerns facing markets and best ideas (23:20).

Not intended as investment advice.

The Dangers of Interest Rate Volatility Risk, With Nancy Davis of Quadratic Capital Oct 28, 2019

Nancy Davis of Quadratic Capital joins the podcast to discuss the danger of interest rate volatility risk.

The market is at "peak confidence of central banks being able to control markets" (2:27), as evidenced by the historic low in all gauges of interest rate volatility (5:36). The risks of stagflation (8:37) and a trade war with Europe (10:16) are similarly discounted.

Background on Nancy (14:39), further information on her fund (17:23), why gold is an ineffective inflation hedge (22:05).

Peter Borish on Economic Cycles, the Case for Active Investment Management Oct 16, 2019

Peter Borish is a founding partner at Tudor Investment Corp and current chief strategist at Quad Group. In his long career on Wall Street, Borish has seen multiple market cycles and met with and allocated to many hedge fund managers. He shares his wisdom with listeners.

Content: The need for active management in today's market (6:23). A contrarian view on ego (8:35). State of the economic cycle and deflationary pressures (10:29), political realities (14:26), concepts to keep in mind for the long run (16:31). What to look for in an investment adviser and hedge fund manager (20:46). The current state of hedge fund talent (22:57). Areas for concern in the macro picture (26:45) and possible inflection points (29:18).

Not intended as investment advice.

More information on Peter Borish and Quad Group: www.quadgroup.com

No Recession Imminent, Adam Johnson of Bullseye Brief Provides Bullish Stock Picks Oct 09, 2019

Adam Johnson of Bullseye Brief joins the podcast to discuss his optimistic views on the US economy. He supplies ideas for stocks to take advantage of this situation, and talks about his background and how he came to start his investing service.

Content: Labor markets, consumer spending speak to strong economic currents in the US (0:46). The bullish case for financial stocks (2:55) and United Rentals (6:04). Semiconductors should do well (9:49). Adam's background and how he came to start Bullseye Brief (14:23). Ideas in biotechs (19:07).

More information about Bullseye Brief: www.bullseyebrief.com

The Need for Non-Consensus Investing, With Rupal J. Bhansali Sep 25, 2019

Rupal J. Bhansali joins the podcast to discuss her just-published book "Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else is Wrong."

Ms. Bhansali is the chief investment officer, international and global equities, at Ariel Investments in New York. Over the course of the conversation she explains why she wrote the book, some of its most valuable lessons for stock analysts, and why investors should eschew FAANG stocks for a new acronym: MANG (Michelin, Ahold, NTT Docomo, Glaxosmithkline).

Skip to segments: The need for developing non-consensus views (2:20), focusing on balance-sheet risk rather than earnings (3:50), "kicking the can down the road" is not an option (6:27), FAANG vs. MANG (7:27), a special message to young women (12:20)

More information on the book: https://cup.columbia.edu/book/non-consensus-investing/9780231192309

Microinvesting Primer and Idea Generation, with GeoInvesting's Maj Soueidan Sep 18, 2019

Maj Soueidan, co-founder of GeoInvesting LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to microcap investing and his process for sourcing ideas before concluding with one of his favorite stock picks at the time of the recording.

Content: The case for microcaps (1:25), how to find ideas (5:14), sectors (9:04), monitoring and holding periods (10:08), catalysts and "problems" (12:30), an illustrative case study (15:10), Maj's background and how he came about microcap investing (18:43), more about GeoInvesting (24:19), current idea: Rand Worldwide Inc. (26:09), how to find more information (37:14).

The Coming 'Melt Up' in Markets, With David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors Sep 04, 2019

David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, discusses the current state of the economic cycle and why risk assets have a final upleg left before the onset of the bear market.

Content: The Federal Reserve is behind the curve of the economy (2:00), the coming bust (5:00), predictions for bond prices (8:15), the final "melt up" and why it will be "parabolic" (12:29), echoes of 1982 (16:50), the 2020 bear market (19:34) and recovery, which will bring the first inflationary cycle since the 1970s (21:21), favorite places to be in terms of investments (26:45), $10 oil (30:00)

Not intended as investment advice.

Follow David on Twitter

2/10 Yield Curve Inversion: No Ill Effects for US Economy, Says Barry Knapp Aug 19, 2019

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics joins the podcast to discuss the 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion. The gauge is viewed as a harbinger of recession and while global trade has clearly slowed, the U.S. economy should not necessarily see any ill effects in the immediate future, says Knapp.

Content: The 3-month/10-year yield curve versus the 2-year/10-year (2:52), for historical precedence see Japan in the early 2000s (7:50), recession in global trade but not in the U.S. (8:42), positives for the U.S. economy (13:00).

For more information on our guest: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/

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