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On the newest episode of the Compound Show, join Downtown Josh Brown for a discussion about the bubble in belief. The rise of "Special Purpose Acquisition Corp 2.0" involves the backdoor IPOs of DraftKings, Nikola, Utz Potato Chips, the Golden Nugget Online, Virgin Galactic and many other well known companies. Pershing Square's Bill Ackman just launched the largest SPAC ever this week. What does it mean? What does it signify about the current market environment? Plus, a conversation with Larry McDonald (A Colossal Failure of Common Sense) about whether or not the S&P 500 index committee can keep ignoring Tesla, now that it's reported four straight quarters of GAAP profits and its market cap is larger than almost all the other holdings.
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On this week's episode of The Compound Show, Josh discusses the Covid-19 economy and why Universal Basic Income (UBI) might be the inevitable and necessary solution. Next, Michael Batnick joins Josh for an all new round of What Are Your Thoughts. They discuss gold vs the S&P, Elon Musk vs Warren Buffett, and much more!
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On this episode of The Compound Show, Josh discusses this summer's huge rally in Chinese stocks, and the implications for investors when Europe and Asia seem to have done a better job addressing the pandemic. Vitaliy Katsenelson joins to talk about the problem with paying any price for growth stocks. Noah Kerner, the founder and CEO of Acorns joins Josh for a discussion about how he's taught 7 million people how easy it is to start investing at any age, with any dollar amount.
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On this episode of The Compound Show, Josh talks about the 4.8 million jobs added back in June, the wild dispersion within the Real Estate sector of the stock market, warehouses vs office buildings, and some plans for July 4th weekend. Michael Batnick joins for another round of What Are Your Thoughts to answer the question "Why would anyone invest right now?"
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In the first half of this week's episode, Josh discusses the coronavirus resurgence, 5 stocks that now make up 22% of the S&P 500, the precedent set by the Federal Reserve's pandemic response, and the growing interest in ESG investing. In the second half of the show, Josh talks with Jannick Malling, co-Founder and co-CEO of Public, about the measures his social investing app has taken to protect and educate young investors.
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On the new edition of What Are Your Thoughts with Michael Batnick and Josh Brown:
- Bubble behavior in a market crisis is nothing new or unusual.
- Fidelity says 18% of investors sold out of all their stocks during the last few months, and a third of investors over 65 years old!
- With the Fed buying the investment grade bonds of Apple and Microsoft, do its critics have a point?
- What did we learn from this crisis?
- Eating at restaurants again - weird but satisfying.
- Does Michael watch movies just to torture himself? Plus, why Josh likes westerns.
- Apple's App Store facilitated over half a trillion dollars in commerce last year!
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A Degenerate Gambler Walks Into a Stock Exchange... What Are Your Thoughts?
On an all-new What Are Your Thoughts - Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the biggest topics in finance this week, including:
- What should we make of massive one-day rallies in the stock market?
- What if the stock market is doing a better job of tracking the real economy than we think?
- Which is more dangerous for a degenerate gambler - legal sports betting or discovering the stock market?
- How will restaurants and bars conform to the new health challenge and make a comeback?
- What's one thing you've changed your mind about since the crisis began?
- How come people seem to begin investing as bulls and then get bearish when they're older?
Ten Rules for Retirement Investing
Josh here - my colleague Anthony Isola put together this list of ten rules for retirement. Tony spends a lot of his time giving advice to people who aren't typically savvy about investing or finance in general. Many of his clients are teachers but these rules are truly universal.
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Josh Brown and Michael Batnick discuss the recent rash of commentary about the "Death of Value Investing," a discipline that has already died a thousand deaths before and yet is continually resurrected. Michael points out that growth investing is currently on a 30-year win streak versus value investing, while the distance between cheap stocks and expensive stocks has never been more stretched. Josh's take is that the idea of buying an asset for less than it's worth is immortal, but the inputs we base these decisions on might need to change. Perhaps it's not a problem with the concept, but with the measurements.
You can find more of Michael's thoughts and charts on the topic at his post below: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/05/12/the-case-against-value-investing/
You can find Josh's written rant on value investing here: https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/05/12/value-investing-is-immortal/
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Unlimited Economic Stimulus: What Are Your Thoughts?
Join Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown for another all-new edition of What Are Your Thoughts? as they discuss:
- US stocks just had their best monthly performance in 30 years
- what was the catalyst?
- Has Warren Buffett's magic touch faded away? Why Berkshire's annual shareholder "meeting" was so underwhelming.
- Josh got the antibody test. Why wouldn't everyone? Maybe because it doesn't mean anything.
- Is there any limit to how much money the Fed and Treasury can throw at the economy? Do we have any choice?
- Michael Jordan talked about the downside of fame in this week's 'The Last Dance' - the press tears our idols down on Wall Street too.
The Yield Curve Indicator is UNDEFEATED
Josh here - Okay, so now we're officially in recession. What happens next? How long will this go on for?
Last fall we had Professor Campbell Harvey, partner and senior advisor to Research Affiliates, on The Compound to discuss the inverted yield curve, an economic indicator he had discovered in the 1980's. Cam explained that this indicator - when Treasury interest rates on shorter-term bonds rise above those being paid on longer-dated bonds - has been successful at predicting recessions 7 out of 7 times with zero false signals along the way. This recession means it's now 8 for 8!
Join us for a discussion about the way the signal should be thought about now with the Fed's overnight rate back at zero. We also discuss whether or not the economy is bottoming, what has to happen for the recession to end, and why this environment is like nothing we've ever seen before in history.
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Episode starts with Josh asing his friend Jeff Macke to pop on and tell us about what's happening with America's largest retailers, and how the coronavirus ended up being both a challenge and an opportunity for them. Jeff is an expert in all things big box retailing and ecommerce, He's also hilarious and one of the nicest guys I know. Hope you enjoy and learn some stuff from this!
Later, Michael Batnick talks with Logan Mohtashami, columnist for HousingWire, about where the housing market was prior to COVID-19, how quickly the market reacted, and what it will look like when the economy reopens.
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