The Breakdown

Latest Episodes:

The History of the Dollar System From Bretton Woods to QE Infinity, Feat. Luke Gromen Apr 22, 2020

Show notes

QE infinity. Corporate bailouts. Nudging UBI. The incredible economic phenomena going on now didn’t happen out of the blue. They are the byproducts of a key events spread across the 70 year history of the US dollar led global monetary system.

Luke Gromen is the founder of Forest From The Trees, a macro/thematic research firm. In this episode, Luke provides a TL;DR on those key events that got us to where we are today, including:

Bretton Woods and why the world went on a USD-based system rather than Keynes idea for a non-sovereign ‘bancor’ world reserve currency
The move to the Petrodollar in the 1970s
The financialization of commodities that started in the 1980s
The monetary policy vacuum after the Cold War ended
How a shift in executive compensation rules led to many of today’s problems with Wall Street
The export of Treasury Bills as a business model
The fallout of 2008 globally and domestically
The end of Treasury Bill buying in 2014
Why the Fed is the only sugar daddy left

From Proof of Health to UBI: How Everything Changes Post COVID-19, Feat. Joe McCann Apr 21, 2020

Show notes

Joe McCann currently works in cloud and AI at Microsoft and has spent decades in tech, crypto, and open source communities. He recently wrote a piece called “A New, New World Order” all about the second and third order effects of Covid-19.

In this conversation, Joe and NLW discuss:

Localism and the beginning of the end of globalization
The return of domestic manufacturing
The ‘Roaring 20s’ of Inflation
The inevitability of Universal Basic Income in response to inflation
QE infinity and the US’s nationalization by proxy
National healthcare as national security and why microbes are this decade’s terrorists
Proof of health, and why it’s likely to be implemented on a blockchain

Bearish or Bullish? What Oil, DeFi Hacks and Cash Hoarding Tell Us About Markets Apr 20, 2020

Show notes

It’s hard to look at recent news from both crypto and traditional markets and not feel like we’re getting pretty mixed signals. Stocks have been recovering, but oil is hitting historic lows. DeFi suffers a major hack over the weekend, but Coinbase sees a major spike in $1200 transactions right as $1200 stimulus checks hit. Cash hoarding is giving pretence for eliminating privacy-preserving money, but one of the world’s most successful hedge funds has authorized investment in bitcoin futures.

On today’s episode of The Breakdown, NLW separates bullish from bearish signals for the strange in between times.

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | April 18 2020 Apr 18, 2020

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The entire week's shows in one convenient episode

Monday | Off
Tuesday | The $20,000 Human IPO & 5 Other Stories That Have Nothing to Do With COVID-19
Wednesday | What the Economy Will Look Like 6 Months From Now, Feat. Ryan Selkis
Thursday | Libra vs. China's DCEP? The Battle for the Future of Money Heats Up
Friday | Why Money Is Losing Its Meaning, feat. Jared Dillian

Why Money Is Losing Its Meaning, feat. Jared Dillian Apr 17, 2020

Show notes

Bitcoiners are particularly sensitive to Fed intervention in markets, but the degree to which the Fed is willing to print to backstop basically all risk is drawing the attention of even normal market participants.

On this episode of The Breakdown, NLW is joined by Jared Dillian, market analyst, contrarian, and editor of The Daily Dirt Nap. They discuss:

What ‘safe haven’ means in today’s climate
How Jared became a bitcoin believer after being a skeptic
Why in an MMT world, taxation policy will be driven by ideology not practicality
Why money is losing its meaning

Libra vs. China's DCEP? The Battle for the Future of Money Heats Up Apr 16, 2020

Show notes

This week saw the latest salvos in the battle for the future of money.

Libra announced that it would be moving away from a single currency that was backed by a basket of national currency to a model of numerous individual fiat-pegged currencies. While the original model was akin to a disruptive implementation of John Maynard Keynes original concept for a global basket currency (which he called a “bancor”), this model seems more to position Libra to help existing central banks digitize their currencies.

China meanwhile steamed forward with its digital currency and blockchain plans. Screenshots of an app from the Agricultural Bank of China show how the DCEP digital currency is currently being tested, giving us insight into functionality, geographies and players involved.

China also announced the 71 members of its National Blockchain Council, as well as went live with their Blockchain Service Network. The BSN in particular has potential significance on a world scale as China tries to build and control a key piece of global digital infrastructure.

What the Economy Will Look Like 6 Months From Now, Feat. Ryan Selkis Apr 15, 2020

Show notes

As week (one million, it seems) of the COVID-19 lockdown plods on, many are wondering what the economy will look like on the other side.

Ryan Selkis is the CEO and founder of Messari. He was one of the earliest voices in crypto to sound the alarm on the potential impact of COVID-19 not only on the health system but on the economy.

In this episode of The Breakdown, Ryan joins @NLW to discuss:

Why the markets right now represent an economic and psychological relief rally
What it takes to reopen the economy
Why voluntary, privacy preserving contact tracing is part of the solution
Why crypto has performed largely as Ryan expected

The $20,000 Human IPO & 5 Other Stories That Have Nothing to Do With COVID-19 Apr 14, 2020

Show notes

Even as the market tries to make sense of everything happen (or ignores it, depending on your perspective), crypto keeps on plugging along.

Today on The Breakdown @NLW looks at 5 recent crypto stories that are representative of larger trends, including:

Coinbase Custody enabling staking for Polkadot DOTs
A Telegram-focused exchange shutting down due to regulatory compliance costs
A $20k Human IPO on Ethereum
Shapeshift acquires Portis & other crypto M&A
A G20 report on the threat of Stablecoins

The Breakdown Weekly Recap | April 11 2020 Apr 11, 2020

Show notes

The full week's episodes in one convenient file:

Monday | How Covid-19's Second Order Effects Could Make Humanity Stronger, feat. Emerson Spartz
Tuesday | Exit Plans, Premature Rallies and Frontline Heroes feat. Ben Hunt
Wednesday | The Questions We're Not Allowed to Ask, Feat. Hidden Forces' Demetri Kofinas
Thursday | Rebuilding the Resilience Economy, Feat. Anthony Pompliano
Friday | Quantitative Tightening and 5 Key Questions for Our Changing World

Quantitative Tightening and 5 Key Questions for Our Changing World Apr 10, 2020

Show notes

As we wrap up another crazy week - 6.6m more jobless claims, $2.3T more in stimulus - this episode offers a few key themes and questions for bitcoiners and the crypto-minded to think about over the long Easter weekend:

Crypto-dollarization: why money is pouring into USD stablecoins and how it could create a future onramp to bitcoin
‘Quantitative Tightening’: why a new brand for the bitcoin halving could help us better capture a unique narrative moment
What it takes to get the economy back to work: beyong the political hemming and hawking, how can we force the real, nuanced conversation of turning the economy back on?
What it takes to rebuild as a Resilience Economy - and how can bottoms-up networks get started now?
Moments of transition are moments of leverage: what opportunities can each of us take advantage of?

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