The Breakdown

Latest Episodes:

The Bull Market Is Back on the Menu! (Did It Ever Leave?) Aug 12, 2021

Show notes

On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW covers bull market indicators, including:

Investment firms reporting positive market signals
Continued NFT boom
Markets ignoring outdated FUD

Both NYDIG and Arca released reports detailing their perceptions of positive market signals towards a bull run. Signs included Grayscale GBTC unlocks, institutional interest and risk appetite.

The NFT bubble has not burst. Capital continues to flow into the space and digital art collections like Crypto Punks have shot up in value, exceeding even the previous March highs.

Crypto seems to be rolling over FUD: Tether’s additional backing clarity and BitMEX’s nine-figure settlement helped to ease uncertainties in markets over regulations. China’s crypto crackdown and the subsequent Great Hashrate Migration caused little impact. Even the Poly Network’s $600 million hack this week made no dent to prices.

Is Bitcoin’s “defiance rally” part of a bigger bull run?

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The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Only in Time” by Abloom. Image credit: Overearth/iStock/Getty Images Plus, modified by CoinDesk.

Compromise Provision Tanked by Octogenarian Near-Retiree, but Crypto Shows DC It's Here to Stay Aug 11, 2021

Show notes

The compromise amendment to the crypto provision in the infrastructure bill was shot down in the Senate yesterday. On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW covers what’s happened, what’s next and what it all means, including:

The compromise’s demise
Next stop: The House of Representatives
Crypto’s newfound relevance in political discourse

The compromise – proposed by Senators Lummis and Toomey, and backed by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen – was rejected by a single senator. The amendment would have required unanimous consent but was tanked by Alabama Republican Sen. Richard Shelby over an unrelated dispute on additional military funding.

The bill now moves to the House where it will be deliberated more, though it is unclear how much room there will be for modifications once it gets there. Emerging crypto-friendly lawmakers continue to push to improve the broker definition within the provision.

The infrastructure bill saga represents the first act in crypto entering the highest echelons of political discussion in the U.S. Instead of pushing quiet legislation through, this crypto provision gave the industry an unprecedented platform and relevance in the eyes of lawmakers. Will crypto be a key issue for lawmakers in the future?

The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Tidal Wave” by BRASKO. Image credit: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News, modified by CoinDesk.

Bitcoin Rallies Defiantly as Senate Infrastructure Battle Hits a Snag Aug 10, 2021

Show notes

Contention over the crypto provision in the infrastructure bill continues. Today on “The Breakdown,” NLW brings the latest, including:

Consensus mechanism confusion
A weekend stalemate
The emergent power of the crypto industry

The amendment proposed by Sen. Rob Portman included an odd preference for proof-of-work over any other consensus mechanism. After significant pushback from the crypto community on this specific detail, the amendment was changed to cover all consensus mechanisms. But in a head-scratching turn of events, the amendment was updated once more to include proof-of-work and proof-of-stake, but no other mechanisms.

Sunday came with its own set of blockers, including a conflict around prioritization of the crypto provision versus other legislation that needs attention. Though the weekend brought little resolution, the debate continues and there is still time for a positive resolution. Will policymakers come to an agreement on one of the proposed amendments in time?

What Happens if the Dollar Loses Reserve Currency Status? Aug 08, 2021

Show notes

On this week’s “Long Reads Sunday,” NLW reads David Z. Morris’ “The End of Exorbitant Privilege: Inflation, the Global Dollar and What Comes Next,” which covers inflation’s potential impact on the status of the USD.

The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Tidal Wave” by BRASKO. Image credit: blinow61/iStock/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk.

'Crypto IS Macro Now': Raoul Pal on Bitcoin, DeFi and the Transformation of Power Aug 07, 2021

Show notes

On today’s episode, NLW is joined by Raoul Pal. Raoul is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, whose Real Vision Crypto community has raced to more than 100,000 after launching earlier this year.

They discuss:

The U.S. infrastructure bill and the increase in regulatory pressure
The current state of inflation and why markets disagree about its impact
Why transformation and technological change are the main forces shaping markets and society
Why DeFi is particularly threatening to central banks
Why Janet Yellen is the embodiment of the central bank and the federal government coming together
The real future of NFTs

The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Only in Time” by Abloom. Image credit: Nuthawut Somsuk/iStock/Getty Images modified by CoinDesk.

White House Unveiled as Puppet Master as New Amendment Threatens Crypto Industry Aug 07, 2021

Show notes

The infrastructure bill-related surprise in the U.S. Congress came in the form of a competing amendment with a short list of exemptions from the original language. On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW addresses the latest updates on the bill, including:

White House support of the Portman, Warner and Sinema amendment
Proof-of-work prioritization
The future of the bill

The White House claimed support of the Portman, Warner and Sinema competing amendment, citing its ability to strengthen tax compliance in the crypto industry. Crypto advocates have been quick to call out the intentional gaps in the amendment’s language as well as the clear lack of technological understanding.

The proposed amendment specifically excludes proof-of-work mining from the reporting requirements, a surprising stance compounded by the fact that the language itself seems to misunderstand the difference between validation and mining. Some Bitcoin maximalists rejoice at their preferential treatment over proof-of-stake networks like Ethereum, but it remains unclear whether this amendment would protect even Bitcoin in the long term.

If the amendment were passed, the bill itself would not go into effect until 2023. Organizations like Fight for the Future are creating resources for crypto allies to contact their senators. If the amendment passes, how will crypto adapt?

The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Razor Red” by Sam Barsh. Image credit: Alex Wong/Getty Images News, modified by CoinDesk.

With EIP 1559, Has ETH Become Ultra Sound Money? Aug 06, 2021

Show notes

On today’s episode of “The Breakdown,” host NLW discusses:

Proposed amendments to the infrastructure bill
Notable EIP 1559 changes
“Ultra-sound” money meme explained

Amendment proposals came from a variety of political figures, including Sen. Ted Cruz’s bid to scrap the crypto provision altogether. A more realistic option, however, came from Sens. Wyden, Toomey and Lummis, who chose to insert a definition excluding non-custodial intermediaries.

In the main discussion, the London hard fork to Ethereum took place early this morning. The changes aimed to improve the user experience on the network and included the introduction of a maximum bidding tip, increased block size in times of high demand and the change to burn the base fee.

The base fee burning modification has sparked conversation about a potentially powerful side effect. In new EIP-1559 transactions, the protocol will burn the ETH used for to pay the base fee. If more ETH is burned this way than is issued, it will make ETH deflationary. If bitcoin’s fixed supply constitutes “sound money,” does ether’s declining supply “ultra-sound?”

The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Only in Time” by Abloom. Image credit: Zoltan Tasi/Unsplash modified by CoinDesk, modified by CoinDesk.

What’s Really Behind SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s Crypto Speech Aug 05, 2021

Show notes

SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s speech at the Aspen Security Conference has Crypto Twitter in a frenzy. On this episode, NLW covers the latest in regulatory action, including:

Infrastructure bill update
Overall take of Gensler’s speech: hostile or bullish?
More concerning crypto opposition

Gary Gensler’s “Remarks Before the Aspen Security Forum”

Crypto Twitter has not reached an agreement on the tone of Gensler’s comments. While some claim this is as a catalyst for incoming regulation and the most aggressive stance to date, others saw it as a run-of-the-mill conservative, consumer protection-focused take.

Aside from securities definitions discussion, Gensler’s comments did point to a Bitcoin bias and an admiration for some of the ideals behind crypto. This outlook contrasts with the negative perception of crypto from Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is attempting to shift to a more negative narrative and from Congressman Don Beyer, who recently dropped a surprise comprehensive crypto bill.

Who will be the biggest adversary to crypto with securities, stablecoins and ‘systemic risk’ on the minds of so many regulators?

The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Razor Red” by Sam Barsh. Image credit: Melissa Lyttle/Bloomberg/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk.

The Senate Meets the Cyber-Hornets: The Nascent Crypto Lobby Is Actually Effective Aug 04, 2021

Show notes

The infrastructure bill’s crypto provision had the industry scrambling to lobby for change. On this episode of “The Breakdown,” NLW covers the continuing saga of the bill, including:

A recap on the bill’s crypto provision and subsequent backlash
Crypto industry’s resistance going mainstream
Regulatory battles to come

A last-minute addition to the infrastructure bill met with fierce resistance from figures across the crypto sector, from industry executives to crypto-friendly lawmakers. These statements called out the destructive nature of the bill as it would require non-broker crypto intermediaries to comply with strict IRS reporting standards, a nearly impossible task.

The extensive lobbying has not gone unnoticed. Mainstream media picked up the story as more and more statements called out the potential dangers of the bill. Policymakers are now forced to face the angry cyber-hornets headed their way.

The infrastructure bill battle is the first of many regulatory clashes to come. For example, debate is currently raging on crypto Twitter about the implications of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s speech on crypto today. Will the crypto industry tackle future regulatory collisions with a similar ferocity?

A Partial Victory in the Infrastructure Bill Battle Aug 03, 2021

Show notes

First, the Brief:

Bank of America’s research highlights the pros of El Salvador's bitcoin law
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard discusses the need for a U.S. CBDC
Bank of China intends to continue significant pressure on crypto
No sign of a slowdown in U.S. bitcoin mining industry
Kentucky as the fifth state to stop BlockFi
Lastly, a record week for NFTs and the emergence of a new institutional narrative

Our main discussion centers on the ongoing battle surrounding a crypto provision within the highly debated infrastructure bill. The original language of the draft targeted crypto intermediaries, from hardware wallet manufacturers to miners, mandating that they report transactions made through their services. Doing so would be virtually impossible and hinder the U.S. crypto industry.

In response, the community rallied for an updated bill with more forgiving standards. Crypto allies, from industry heavy hitters like Coin Center’s Jerry Brito to Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon, expressed their discontent with the original language of the draft. With an amendment process underway, will these statements be enough to make a significant change?

The Breakdown is written, produced by and features NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Razor Red” by Sam Barsh. Image credit: XXX/iStock/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk.

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