Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

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Ep. 1626: A Wild Ride Apr 15, 2025

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Wild market swings, political chaos, and investor confusion set the stage for this episode. Don and Tom break down the emotional impact of volatility, the myths of market timing, and the wisdom in sticking to long-term plans. With insights from Jason Zweig and some smart listener Q&A, they remind us that discipline—not prediction—is what builds wealth, even in uncertain times.
0:01 Intro with the 'interesting times' curse and the current market confusion
0:48 S&P 500 drops 10.5% in two days, bounces back 9.5%—market whiplash
1:33 How volatility overloads the brain and leads to bad decisions
2:28 Few people understand tariffs—uncertainty drives market instability
3:24 The idea of the market as a fourth branch of government
3:38 Why owning stocks long-term still makes sense
5:03 Investor panic: emotional decisions vs. rational plans
6:27 Jason Zweig's four questions for investors—clarity through chaos
8:13 Why you own stocks: not trade stability, but long-term growth
9:08 What's changed? Trust, tariffs, and long-term resilience
10:27 You earn the premium by enduring market fear
10:31 The emotional trap of anchoring and chasing returns
11:44 The fantasy of upside-only investing—and the danger of chasing it
13:04 Caller Jeff: Should I dollar-cost into ETFs or sell and buy all at once?
14:27 Advice: In a retirement account, just make the shift—it’s lateral
16:04 Caller Bill: Accidental portfolio drift and how to rebalance to 50/50
19:05 Simple ETF plan vs. target-date funds for retiring investors
20:37 Caller Joe: Real estate success and why stocks aren’t for everyone
27:09 The overlooked danger of foreign countries selling U.S. debt
30:24 Bond prices, interest rates, and currency impacts explained
32:04 U.S. credit rating vs. the world—and why diversification still matters
33:28 Tariff risks, political uncertainty, and long-term investing perspective
35:25 If you’ve invested right, you don’t need to react
39:04 Tom’s "work trip" vacation and Don flying solo next week
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Ep. 1625: A Fool and His Money... Apr 14, 2025

Show notes

In this classic swirl of candor, humor, and financial sense, Don and Tom tackle the human habit of financial foolishness—from betting big on speculative ETFs to ignoring global diversification. They call out the irony of investment products like ELON, roast the current state of the Motley Fool, and offer real-world perspective on international investing, market timing myths, and retirement portfolio design. They even sprinkle in a few thesaurus gems for good measure.
0:04 Welcome and warning: this episode is full of tangents, tomfoolery, and truth
0:48 Netflix documentary detour: why are people (and investors) so dumb?
2:01 International investing: why people ignore it and why that’s… dumb
3:49 U.S. vs international returns in early 2025—surprise! It’s not all about the S&P
5:16 Market irony and the value of global diversification
6:09 A disappointing turn from The Motley Fool (and a very public grudge)
6:59 Enter the ELON ETF—double Tesla, short Ford, and down 64%
9:41 What happens when leverage meets marketing in the worst way
11:10 A $750K fund that made… $675 in fees. Yep.
11:57 Foolish investor behaviors: feelings ≠ foresight
13:37 The (simple) path to real investing: low-cost, tax-efficient, diversified portfolios
14:28 Punchline investing: don’t be a dunce—be global, be patient
15:52 Listener Q: Is my mix of S&P 500, TDFs, and Roth diversification enough?
17:26 Portfolio allocation advice: stock/bond mix first, account strategy second
19:28 Suggestion: get a professional plan before retirement
20:00 Buffered ETFs: what they are, why they’re pricey, and why they disappoint
23:22 Returns reality check: buffered funds vs plain S&P 500
24:47 The big lie of hedged products—"all the upside, none of the risk"
25:19 Wrapping up with more Q&A, grandkids, and international call jokes
29:33 Tom’s latest investment: soccer team ownership (yes, really)
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Ep. 1624: Q'in' and A'in' Apr 11, 2025

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It’s a full-on Q&A Friday as Don tackles listener questions on account consolidation, fund choices, proper bond allocation, and portfolio construction. From dissecting the merits of AVGE vs. DFAW vs. VT+AVUV, to helping federal employees estimate how much to save, and even clearing up confusion about average returns—this episode is a masterclass in real-world investing for every phase of life. Whether you’re building your portfolio, nearing retirement, or just trying to clean up a financial mishmash, there’s clarity here. Oh, and snark-free math explanations, too.
1:36 First caller: Accumulation phase advice—Fidelity vs. AVGE vs. Vanguard
3:15 Follow-up: Retirement accounts, target date funds, and cleaning up a messy portfolio
5:06 Safe Harbor 401k rules explained
5:53 Deep dive into 401k fund options—why some funds may not be ideal
7:43 Old TSP account—combine or leave it?
9:34 Caller: How to start adding bonds after years of 100% stocks
10:43 Two strategies for shifting into bonds slowly and smartly
11:42 Listener from Texas asks: How is average return actually calculated?
12:44 Why averages are simple math, not magic
14:13 Caller: TSP investor wants to grow $114k to $500k in 10 years—what it’ll take
15:55 Fidelity Roth IRA options: AVGE vs. DFAW vs. VT + AVUV tilt
17:40 Pros and cons of each fund setup—risk, fees, and portfolio simplicity
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Ep. 1623: Talking Real Rules Apr 11, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom put popular retirement rules of thumb under the microscope—testing everything from the 4% withdrawal rule to the idea of downsizing your home in retirement. With equal parts logic and skepticism, they explore whether these oft-repeated guidelines still hold up in today's financial landscape. Along the way, they touch on portfolio construction, social security timing (with Don’s real-life dilemma), and why rules are made to be... at least bent. Plus, a few listener questions round out the episode with practical portfolio advice and fund critiques.
0:04 Intro: Humans love rules—including rules of thumb
1:30 Should we ditch retirement rules altogether? Or are they helpful shortcuts?
3:23 Rule #1: The 4% withdrawal rule—what it gets right (and what it doesn’t)
5:08 Rule #2: The 80% income replacement rule—Tom hates it, and here’s why
7:49 Rule #3: Defer taxes with traditional IRAs—good idea or future tax trap?
10:02 Roth vs. traditional contributions—what young workers should do
10:39 Rule #4: The Rule of 110 for stock allocation—Don calls it dumb
12:32 Risk tolerance and personal flexibility matter more than age-based math
14:13 Rule #5: Wait till 70 for Social Security—Don admits he might not
16:38 Don's real-life dilemma: Take Social Security now or wait?
19:23 Rule #6: Downsizing your house in retirement—easier said than done
22:08 Final thoughts: Plans > rules of thumb, especially after age 50
23:07 Q&A: Why don’t you like Fidelity’s zero-fee funds? (Short answer: they’re not fully diversified)
26:50 Are they bad? No. Would we recommend them? Also no.
27:25 Q&A: Retirees with $4M+—how to rebalance IRAs, Roths, and taxable efficiently
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Ep. 1622: Tariffs Feed Inflation Apr 09, 2025

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This episode dives deep into the market’s latest mood swing and the potential impact of new tariffs on consumer costs—like the real price of your next iPhone. Don and Tom explain what tariffs are, how they work, and why they’re likely to fuel inflation. Plus, they tackle a range of listener questions, from the risks of fixed-income annuities and rebalancing portfolios, to why bonds (yes, still) deserve a place in your portfolio. And of course, they throw shade at both annuity commissions and self-proclaimed “legendary” market forecasters. Emotional investing? That’s the real danger.
0:04 Opening banter and why this has been “a heck of a money week”
1:01 What exactly is a tariff? And why you’re paying more than you think
4:29 The real cost breakdown of an iPhone—and what tariffs could do to it
6:58 How rising costs could slow down upgrades and hit the tech economy
8:11 Why economists (even at WSJ) are mostly anti-tariff
9:27 Listener question: Did Andrew make a mistake buying a fixed-income annuity?
14:47 The ethics of $45,000 commissions and what you give up with annuities
21:12 What if Andrew had just invested the money instead?
25:48 Listener challenge: Are bonds really worth it if returns lag inflation?
30:23 The real reason to own bonds—and it’s not about return
32:57 SQQQ gamble pays off—should Devin take the money and run?
34:35 Wrapping the week with a reminder: it’s not about guessing, it’s about planning
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Ep. 1621: Ups and Downs Apr 08, 2025

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In this episode, Don and Tom address the market’s recent correction—without ever saying the “D-word.” They explain how global diversification cushions the blow, why balanced portfolios aren’t as battered as headlines suggest, and how reacting emotionally is the real danger. They also dive into classic investing mistakes, like stock concentration and chasing headlines, and share guidance on rebalancing thresholds. Listener questions include when to rebalance, how to strategically tap accounts in retirement, and whether it’s time to break up with Edward Jones (spoiler: it is).
0:04 “D-word” banter and market correction intro
1:24 The $5 trillion “missing” from markets—why it’s not doomsday
2:10 Tariffs, uncertainty, and what markets hate most
3:29 Year-to-date performance: S&P 500, total U.S., and global portfolios
4:56 Diversification works—global value stocks still positive
5:14 Media panic vs. reality—why not watching CNBC is a good move
6:11 Real portfolio check-in: diversified and down just 5%
7:36 What to do when the market drops—don’t panic
8:00 “It’s different this time”—but not really
9:35 Risk check: how much are you really taking?
10:43 Concentration risk: why individual stocks and tech are volatile
11:50 Tesla and Apple tank—example of why you diversify
13:45 Expert noise: Bill Gross vs. Ed Yardeni—ignore both
15:54 Market predictions: why you should tune out “legendary” investors
16:31 Jason Zweig’s pyramid of regret—make small, smart moves
18:28 Tariffs aren’t good, but they’re also not the end
20:19 Listener Patty asks: When should I rebalance? (5–10% rule explained)
25:31 Listener Karen asks: Which account should I draw from in retirement?
33:07 Listener Dan asks: Should I still sell stocks and buy ETFs? (Yes.)
35:21 Listener Frank asks: Is it time to stop trading with Edward Jones? (Absolutely.)
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Ep. 1620: Inviolate Investments Apr 07, 2025

Show notes

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom sound the alarm on a troubling trend: more people are dipping into their 401(k)s for emergencies. While hardship withdrawals are allowed under IRS rules, they come with serious penalties, taxes, and long-term setbacks. The hosts stress the importance of building an emergency fund before maxing out retirement contributions to avoid turning your future into a piggy bank. They also respond to questions about how to find fiduciary advisors and critique a high-yield income portfolio packed with risky, expensive ETFs—offering a reality check on chasing returns without understanding the risks.
0:04 Retirement talk kicks off with 401(k) praise—and a warning
2:08 Hardship withdrawals hit record levels; 5% of participants tapped accounts
3:50 Emergency fund should come before heavy 401(k) contributions
5:25 Auto-enrollment rises, but so does temptation to pull money
6:06 Weigh a 401(k) loan before a withdrawal—less damage long-term
7:47 IRS penalty exceptions outlined—some hardship cases qualify
9:35 Adulting tip: build that emergency fund, even if it’s hard
10:57 Better to borrow elsewhere (even a credit card!) than touch your 401(k)
12:59 SEP IRAs great for self-employed—but require discipline to fund
14:17 Listener asks why they don’t mention NAPFA more—they do!
17:25 Listener portfolio review: lots of income ETFs, lots of risk
20:33 Many holdings have high expense ratios, junk bonds, or complex strategies
22:33 Bottom line: get a professional review—and simplify the portfolio
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Ep. 1619: Capital Queries Apr 04, 2025

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It’s Q&A Day on Talking Real Money, and Don tackles listener questions on everything from crypto and REITs to emergency funds and IRA contributions. He reiterates his firm stance against crypto as an investment, warns about the risks of individual REITs, and supports diversified REIT funds for long-term portfolios. Don also confirms that yes, you can contribute to a Roth for 2024 and a traditional IRA for 2025 in the same calendar year, as long as you stay within annual limits. Emergency cash? A Treasury money market fund like VUSXX is a solid place. And yes—Don really loves Chattanooga.
0:24 It's Q&A Day—Don wants more spoken questions
2:37 No love for crypto—even with a “strategic reserve”
4:43 Crypto isn’t investing, it’s gambling
5:30 REITs okay in a fund, but never buy individual REITs
8:10 VUSXX is a great place for emergency savings
10:15 Yes, you can do a 2024 Roth and 2025 IRA in same year
11:54 Watch out for pro-rata tax rules when backdooring Roths
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Ep. 1618: Wait Long Enough? Apr 03, 2025

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In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don and Tom dive deep into the question of whether long-term investing in stocks truly guarantees returns. Challenging the conventional wisdom, they examine research by Professor Edward McQuarrie that reveals 10- and even 30-year periods in U.S. and international markets where investors lost money—especially when adjusting for inflation. Despite these sobering findings, the hosts reaffirm their belief in equity markets, emphasizing diversification and the historical outperformance of stocks over bonds. They also critique opaque, sales-driven investment products like private credit funds and annuities, urging listeners to remain skeptical, informed, and grounded in long-term strategy rather than promises of guaranteed returns.
0:24 David Booth says stocks average 10% long-term
1:20 McQuarrie: no guarantee of gains, even over 20 years
2:27 Long-term losses happened—inflation-adjusted
3:16 Diversification helps but doesn’t solve everything
4:08 Most individual stocks lose money—own them all
6:04 Stocks reward, but not guaranteed
11:43 Investing = optimism about the future
13:02 Market timing fails—psychics underperform
15:25 Private credit fund OCIC = high risk, low transparency
18:06 OCIC fees are sky-high—10%+ annually
19:42 Annuities explained—loss of control, high costs
21:53 Annuities ≠ bank CDs—know the difference
24:52 OCIC loaded with fees, risky loans
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Ep. 1617: The Rich Half Apr 02, 2025

Show notes

At Talking Real Money, we emphasize fundamental financial principles like disciplined saving, diversification, and cautious investing—highlighted this episode through insights on wealth distribution in America, noting that successful financial outcomes depend heavily on diligent saving and investing, particularly in equities, businesses, and real estate. We caution against chasing high-dividend stocks, explaining their risks and why they're often poor investment choices compared to a broadly diversified portfolio. Listener calls explored common pitfalls with annuities, especially high fees in variable annuities, reinforcing our advice on avoiding expensive financial products. We discussed efficient strategies like Roth IRAs, clarifying rules around backdoor contributions, conversions, and inherited accounts, emphasizing the importance of strategic tax planning. Ultimately, the path to financial success involves consistent saving, smart asset allocation, and avoiding high-cost investment traps.
1:24 Wealth distribution and how Americans build wealth
2:19 Discussed alarming wealth inequality statistics
3:27 Key to wealth-building: working, saving, and investing
5:20 Listener call questioning high-dividend stocks
6:46 Risks explained about investing in high-dividend companies
9:31 Clarified misconceptions about dividends and cash flow
11:10 Historical examples of high-dividend stock failures
14:21 Listener call regarding variable annuity transfer
16:21 Benefits of transferring from high-fee annuities
18:20 Humorous mix-up about hosts' identities
21:43 Clarification on inherited IRAs and Roth conversions
24:34 Discussed tax deductions for home improvements
25:30 Listener concerns over annuity safety and risk explained
30:07 Caller advised on diversifying using Vanguard ETFs
31:45 Listener call clarifying Roth IRA contributions and eligibility
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