Talking Real Money - Investing Talk

Latest Episodes:

Ep. 1726: Opportunities Overseas Sep 11, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom dig into international investing — why diversification across borders is essential, why timing international markets is a mistake, and how currency fluctuations affect returns. They revisit Japan’s lost decades, talk emerging markets, discuss John Bogle’s arguments against international investing, and explain why owning all markets all the time makes the most sense. Listener questions cover tax perceptions about California, long-term return comparisons, 401(k) rollover and Rule of 55 withdrawals, and the realities of retiring abroad — including the sticker shock of Guatemala’s healthcare spending.
0:04 Should you invest internationally now that foreign markets are rising?
1:29 Morningstar data shows non-U.S. markets doubling U.S. returns in 2025.
2:38 The dollar’s weakness as a key factor in performance.
3:20 Mexico, Brazil, Japan, and China’s strong year — but should you chase it?
4:02 Market leadership cycles: U.S. vs. international across decades.
4:50 The “1990 Japan” cautionary tale: why timing single markets can disappoint.
6:17 Concentration risk, emerging markets, and why you need global diversification.
7:33 Exposure to global companies you can’t get by owning U.S.-only funds.
8:42 Dimensional’s chart shows no country wins every year — own them all.
9:40 Addressing the John Bogle “you already own international through U.S. firms” argument.
10:21 Nestlé example: why local economy exposure matters.
12:45 Listener Greg challenges Don’s California tax comment — clarification given.
13:45 State tax comparisons, why there’s no perfect tax haven.
14:41 New York vs. California tax burdens — where it’s worst.
15:30 Listener Tim asks about long-term return periods — Don points to IFA data.
17:40 1,700+ episodes milestone and show longevity banter.
18:30 Listener Jeff’s complex retirement accounts and Rule of 55 rollover question.
19:09 Discussion of retiring abroad and health care concerns in Guatemala.
22:20 U.S. health care spending vs. Guatemala — a sobering gap.
23:39 Gallows humor about quick death and end-of-life planning.
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Ep. 1725: Why So Mean? Sep 10, 2025

Show notes

In this episode, Don and Tom dig into the podcast rankings to explain why Talking Real Money isn’t at the top—and why Dave Ramsey still is, despite offering more shame than substance. They explore the concept of financial shaming vs. education, reflect on listener Judy’s brilliant retirement planning, and take aim at stock-trading politicians, especially California Rep. Ro Khanna with his 4,700+ trades in one year. Listener questions cover inheritance allocation, condos as investments, and 401(k) vs. Roth vs. brokerage savings. Bonus: Tom yells at his grandkids, Don hates condos, and Congress gets roasted.
0:04 Who’s #1 in investing podcasts? Spoiler: It’s not Don and Tom—it’s still Ramsey
1:18 Financial shaming, bullying, and the “toxic” tone of the Ramsey Show
2:22 The lost LinkedIn post that called out Ramsey culture
3:49 Should shame ever be part of financial advice? (They say no)
5:05 How Talking Real Money tries to educate—not humiliate
7:04 What should great financial advice sound like? A compassionate take
8:47 Caller Judy (age 72) seeks advice on a $200k inheritance—Tom and Don love her plan
11:51 Municipal bond ETFs (like VTEB) vs. international bonds vs. risk tolerance
13:53 Judy’s journey learning finance solo—Don gets emotional
14:38 Why are podcast rankings volatile? Don suspects cheating again
16:03 Listener question: Should you max both 401(k) and IRA? (Yes, and here’s why)
17:59 Roth > Traditional > Brokerage: A savings priority guide
18:45 Target-date funds vs. S&P 500 returns—why it’s not apples to apples
20:05 Caller Nathan: Getting married, no kids, and thinking of buying a condo
22:56 Warning: Condos are almost always terrible investments
25:44 Real estate reality check—condos lag, freestanding homes rebound better
27:52 Don’s definitive answer: “I would never own a condo”
28:33 Congress and stock trading: 86% of Americans say it should be banned
30:20 Ro Khanna made 3,000+ trades in 2023… and wants to ban stock trading?
31:52 Why Congress shouldn’t trade stocks—and how index funds are the solution
34:24 Ro Khanna’s $103 million in trades and 149 conflicts of interest
36:46 Wrapping up: Condos, curmudgeons, and Central Florida emptiness
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Ep. 1724: Too Great Expectations Sep 09, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom break down the overhyped expectations around recent market returns, referencing Jason Zweig’s analysis of 230 years of stock market data. They emphasize that spending and saving habits matter more than chasing 15% returns, and explain why realistic planning using a 3–6% real return assumption over 30-year rolling periods is more prudent. They also tackle questions about RMD strategies from Vanguard IRAs and the TSP’s F and G bond funds. The show ends with a tongue-in-cheek breakdown of NFL team valuations—yes, the Raiders rank surprisingly high.
0:04 Welcome, fatuousness defined, and realistic investing begins
0:52 Why you shouldn’t expect 15% returns forever—even if you got them
1:52 What Jason Zweig’s long-term data reveals about stock returns
2:51 Bogle warned us not to expect high returns—now what?
4:16 Spending and saving: more important than investing performance
5:08 Don’s “prepaid gains” analogy for future expectations
7:00 Real market returns since 1793—spoiler: they’re not 15%
8:58 Stocks might only beat inflation by 3%—and that’s still a win
9:45 Start saving early: waiting until 50 is a losing game
10:18 How to plan with lower expected returns (realistic scenarios)
11:56 Use expected return to guide your savings rate (3% = save 20%)
13:45 “You weren’t smart. You were lucky.” Now diversify.
15:31 Tom’s wife dreads football season—Don celebrates Chiefs loss
18:42 Listener RMD question: Which ETFs get tapped at Vanguard?
19:29 Bonds are back: fixed income up ~6% this year
20:24 Rebalancing vs. just selling: how to handle RMDs smartly
21:04 Raiders rank #4 in NFL valuations… but why?
24:36 Top NFL team values: Cowboys rule, Cardinals drool
27:27 Arizona sports: low attendance, low valuations
28:59 TSP question: F fund vs. G fund—what to use, when
30:25 Don favors the G fund for simplicity and ballast
31:45 Tom and Don disagree—F fund might return more, but…
32:26 Don’s vegetable-spiked coffee and Justin’s final TSP allocation
34:13 Listener Barbara has multiple annuities—Don and Tom say, “Yikes”
35:47 Why you probably talked to a salesperson, not a fiduciary
37:04 The free Appella consultation is steak-free and no-pressure
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Ep. 1723: Extended Child Care Sep 08, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom dive into the emotional, financial, and practical realities of supporting adult children. From layoffs to loans, down payments to dog surprises, this episode tackles the growing trend of parents funding their 20- and 30-something offspring—and how to do it without wrecking your retirement. Plus, listener questions about gifting stock, promissory note scams, and why shady annuity sellers keep showing up on the airwaves.
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Ep. 1722: Ready for a Few As Sep 05, 2025

Show notes

In this Friday Q&A edition, Don fields listener questions on rolling over a large 401(k) after a layoff, whether IRA money should ever be used to buy real estate, Vanguard’s new active ETF offerings, choosing between Vanguard and Schwab 2035 target-date funds, and whether to treat a foreign apartment purchase as part of an investment portfolio. Along the way, he highlights diversification benefits, cautions against high-cost self-directed IRAs, and emphasizes that homes are assets but not investments.
0:04 Friday intro, royal “we,” and reminder on how to submit questions
1:42 Scott from Louisiana: rolling over a $1M retirement account after layoff
4:07 Scott’s follow-up: using IRA funds to buy real estate
5:42 Caller asks about Vanguard’s new active ETFs and why indexes still win
8:02 Sylvia from Connecticut: comparing Vanguard vs Schwab 2035 target-date funds
11:12 Caller from Colombia: whether to factor a paid-off foreign apartment into portfolio allocation
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Ep. 1721: Passive Bubble? Sep 04, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom dismantle the “passive bubble” trope, walk through Morningstar’s active/passive scorecard (great one-year anecdotes vs brutal long-run stats), and recap the steady shift of investor dollars toward indexing. A caller tries to drag the show into politics via data independence (BLS/Fed), prompting a level-headed reminder that markets price reality over rhetoric. The TSP’s revamped I Fund gets kudos for finally adding emerging markets (with a nudge to pair it with value tilts outside TSP). Two meaty segments cover long-term care: costs, weak benefits on traditional policies, when hybrids can make sense, and why many households effectively self-insure or rely on Medicaid as the backstop. Another caller asks about Die With Zero; verdict: great mindset—if your plan already covers worst-case needs.
0:05 Holiday opener, calls invite, “passive is a bubble?” setup
2:06 Is price discovery “broken” if money flows to index funds?
2:40 Active still >50% of U.S. fund assets; global passive ≈20% AUM
4:22 Morningstar barometer: 42% of active beat in 1-yr… so 58% didn’t
6:36 Long-run stats: 3-yr 17.7%, 5-yr 8.2%, 10-yr 2.5%, 15–20-yr ≈~1% of active beat
8:32 Flows: from 1 in 20 dollars passive (’97) to 1 in 2 today; costs matter
10:58 Caller (Sammamish): data independence, politics, rates, inflation risk; market effects vs reality
16:19 Inbox: TSP update—I Fund now includes EM; still thin on value/small tilts
18:32 Why add small/value (incl. intl); performance pops don’t change the case
22:26 Caller (LTC): traditional vs hybrid; math on premiums, caps, Medicaid backstop
26:37 Basic quote math: ~$1,900/yr at 60 for ~$150k cap; lump-sum hybrids trade-offs
29:10 Caller (Maya, Los Altos): Die With Zero—great if plan covers tail risks; most retirees can’t
34:38 Caller (Americus, GA): Mutual of Omaha pitch; self-insure debate; taxes/deductions misconceptions
38:55 Wrap: how to send questions; where to get advice
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Ep. 1720: September Nonsense Sep 03, 2025

Show notes

Don and Tom mark Labor Day weekend with a lively discussion of the so-called September Effect—Wall Street’s superstition about historically negative returns in September. They remind listeners that short-term market timing is a losing strategy and that knowing (not guessing) your risk tolerance and asset allocation matters most. The conversation ranges from Florida’s endless summer and biblical rains to ETF overload, collective investment trusts, tax quirks, and the futility of dodging volatility. Along the way, there’s humor about Costco, fertilizer, wrong numbers, and shameless plugs for Don’s LitReading podcast.
0:04 Labor Day banter, Florida heat, biblical rains, Asheville trip
2:12 September Effect explained—history and hype
4:41 Why you should know, not do, with your portfolio
6:15 Average September returns since 1928 and investor psychology
8:28 Market timing pitfalls and missing best days
10:28 Costco’s Jim Sinegal quote and life’s sugar vs. manure metaphor
12:29 Bogle wisdom: don’t peek at your portfolio
14:05 Listener correction: senior deduction phase-out details
19:14 Don plugs LitReading’s return with an O. Henry story
20:34 ETF explosion—4,300 funds in U.S., 12,000 worldwide
26:15 How to eliminate bad ETFs (fees, leverage, active management)
29:11 Don tests a new GPS analogy ad for Appella Wealth
31:12 Listener question on state tax burdens (California vs. Washington)
34:05 Call-in about 401(k) funds converting to CITs
37:19 CIT regulations, reporting, and transparency explained
39:39 Apple vs. Spotify podcast listener demographics
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Ep. 1719: Q&A&B(onds) Sep 02, 2025

Show notes

Tom kicks off with a check-in on bond market returns, reminding listeners that bonds are about stability, not yield-chasing. He’s joined by advisor Roxy Butner, who helps answer listener questions about fixed-allocation vs. target-date funds, how much international exposure is enough, Ameriprise “CL” fund share classes with high fees, and whether hybrid long-term care annuity products are worth considering. Together they emphasize cost awareness, simplicity, and aligning investments with real-life needs instead of sales-driven products.
0:04 Intro and bond returns update (BND, DFIGX, SWSBX)
2:30 Why bonds belong in portfolios despite modest returns
2:47 Mailbag intro with Roxy Butner
3:13 Shelly asks about fixed-allocation vs target-date funds
5:34 Balanced vs LifeStrategy funds and international exposure
7:01 Frank asks about U.S. vs international allocation split
8:23 AVGE, DFAW, and “overthinking” the international percentage
10:39 Decades of U.S. vs international performance
11:15 Angie asks about Ameriprise “CL” fund share classes
13:32 Expense ratios and fiduciary concerns
14:54 Comparing low-cost index alternatives
15:18 Ford asks about hybrid LTC annuity products
17:30 Income planning first vs peeling off money for LTC
18:34 Real-life client experiences with LTC riders
20:33 Policy complexity, surrender decisions, and care costs
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Ep. 1718: Query Day Aug 29, 2025

Show notes

Don fields listener questions from Asheville in this Friday Q&A edition. Topics include calculating investment returns with XIRR versus simple time-weighted methods, rebalancing U.S. vs. international allocations in a Vanguard portfolio, whether children can have multiple custodial accounts (and why 529s may be better), AVGE versus VT and why factor tilts matter long-term, and a skeptical look at Frank Vasquez’s Risk Parity Radio strategy that leans on commodities and “golden ratio” portfolio construction.
1:03 How to calculate investment returns (XIRR vs. time-weighted)
4:19 Portfolio allocation: VTI + VT + BND vs. simpler mix
7:10 Custodial UTMA accounts vs. 529s
9:24 AVGE vs. VT: expense ratios, factor tilts, long-term logic
15:06 Frank Vasquez and Risk Parity Radio critique
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Ep. 1717: Looking Back Aug 28, 2025

Show notes

This episode of Talking Real Money digs into recency bias—our human tendency to expect the future to look like the recent past—and how it’s quietly reshaping retirement portfolios. Don and Tom examine rising stock allocations in 401(k)s and target-date funds, even among older investors, and why this performance-chasing is dangerous. They highlight the risks of target-date fund managers pandering to investors, the importance of rebalancing, and the need to stick to long-term allocation plans based on risk tolerance, not market trends. Listener questions cover immediate annuities, 529-to-Roth transfer rules, and whether paying an advisor’s 1% fee is worth it compared with DIY investing.
0:04 Recency bias explained and why it drives poor investment decisions
1:05 Stock allocations hitting record levels in 401(k)s across all age groups
2:48 Risk of higher stock exposure for investors in their 60s
3:33 Target-date funds increasing equity exposure and chasing performance
5:00 Example of an investor going from 60/40 to 90% stocks
7:00 Post-2008 shifts: investors moved into bonds when they should’ve been buying stocks
7:26 Importance of rebalancing twice a year to avoid creeping U.S./large-cap overweight
9:00 Why boring diversification still works long-term
11:26 How to check your target-date fund allocation on Morningstar
12:41 Active vs. index target-date funds: Vanguard vs. T. Rowe/Nuveen
14:03 Listener Q: Fixed immediate annuity trade-offs (“wizards of odds”)
17:49 Why insurers win: payout math vs. life expectancy
18:59 Why Don & Tom dislike most annuities but tolerate immediate annuities in some cases
20:52 DIY alternative: 5% bond/CD ladder vs. annuity payout
21:25 What if you get 6%? Extending sustainable income to 23 years
21:37 Listener Q: Rules for rolling 529 funds into a Roth IRA
23:00 Key 529 limits: 15-year account age, 5-year holding period, $35k lifetime cap
23:14 Listener Q: DIY investing vs. hiring an advisor at 1% AUM
24:22 Why a good advisor’s value is about more than returns—taxes, withdrawals, estate planning
25:42 Vanguard’s Advisor Alpha and why behavior coaching adds value
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