Supply Shock

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**Supply Shock**

Supply Shock, hosted by Pete Rizzo, The Bitcoin Historian, explores the latest Bitcoin news with a deep historical perspective. Featuring in-depth interviews with industry experts, each episode connects current events to key moments in Bitcoin history, revealing patterns, lessons, and insights shaping the future of digital assets.

Latest Episodes:

Stock Market Melt-Up Continues, Nvidia Earnings Beat | Weekly Roundup Feb 24, 2024

Show notes

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This week, Tyler Neville & Quinn Thompson join the show to discuss the continued rally in markets as Nvidia beat earnings expectations once again. We also discuss the current state of crypto markets, troubles looming in commercial real estate, Reddit's Bitcoin & Ethereum purchases & more!

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Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Remain High, Coinbase Beat Earnings | Quinn Thompson Feb 21, 2024

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This week, Quinn Thompson CIO at Lekker Research joins the show to discuss the bullish catalysts for crypto in 2024 as ETF inflows remain high, Coinbase beats earnings estimates & stock markets continue to reach new all time highs. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:29) Coinbase Earnings

(17:37) MANTRA Ad

(18:58) Bitcoin ETFs Update

(22:55) The Bitcoin Halving

(30:04) Are "Animal Spirits" Back?

(36:34) DAS London Plug

(37:50) The Ethereum ETF

(45:50) The 2024 Macro Outlook

(48:39) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

Huge Bitcoin ETF Inflows, Coinbase Earnings Beat | Weekly Roundup Feb 17, 2024

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the continued Bitcoin ETF inflows as they surpass $4 billion and increasing each day. We then deep dive into the huge earnings beat from Coinbase & the path forward for 2024 as the Bitcoin halving approaches. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...

Surviving The GBTC "Widowmaker" Trade That Blew Up In 2021 | David Choi Feb 14, 2024

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This week, David Choi Founder of MetStreet Labs joins the show to discuss a viral thread he wrote on the GBTC "widowmaker" trade that blew up in 2021. We deep dive into the mechanics of the GBTC arbitrage trade, the role of Bitcoin lenders (BlockFi, Genesis) & how the unwind of the GBTC widowmaker trade dragged down the industry in 2021 - 2022.

We then compare to todays market conditions and why 2024 & beyond may be a more sustainable market environment for crypto. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

Read David's thread here: https://twitter.com/0xZergs/status/1746126672451993999?s=20

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

(00:00) Introduction

(02:47) The GBTC Arbitrage Trade

(08:44) Structure Of The Trade

(15:24) BlockFi, Genesis & GBTC

(19:18) MANTRA Ad

(20:39) The Bitcoin Lending Market

(23:11) When The GBTC Trade Started To Spiral

(29:29) DAS London Plug

(30:45) Unwinding The Trade

(38:53) Current State Of The Market

(46:10) Final Thoughts

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue | Weekly Roundup Feb 10, 2024

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This week, Mike & Mark give an update on the Bitcoin ETFs as Grayscale outflows continue to slow down, as Bitcoin approaches $50,000 & stock markets continue to reach new record highs. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

The Bullish 2024 Thesis With Travis Kling Feb 07, 2024

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This week, Travis Kling CIO of Ikigai Asset Management joins the show for a discussion on his bullish thesis for 2024.

With Stock markets at all-time highs, a rate cutting cycle expected in 2024 & the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, Travis makes the case that he expects potential tailwinds into the coming year for both crypto & markets broadly. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:37) Travis' 2024 Thesis

(03:10) DAS London Plug

(04:27) Stock Markets Break ATHs, What About Crypto?

(14:05) The Bitcoin ETFs

(20:54) Trading Crypto Cycles

(26:07) Blockworks Research Ad

(26:55) Financial Nihilism

(39:26) Valuation & Reflexivity In Crypto

(45:02) Infrastructure vs Applications

(52:51) Can Crypto Disrupt Walled Gardens?

(56:36) Travis' Macro Outlook In 2024

Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF Outflows Begin To Slow, What Happens Next? Feb 03, 2024

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This week, Mike & Mark give an update on the Bitcoin ETFs as Grayscale outflows begin to slow down. We then discuss this weeks FOMC, the QRA & Meta's blowout earnings. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Joseph Wang & Jack Farley on “Hawkish” January Fed Meeting, Tapering Quantitative Tightening (QT), and “Boring” Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) Jan 31, 2024

Show notes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

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This week, Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro joins the show to discuss the latest in markets after Jerome Powell's FOMC conference.

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference"

(07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices

(10:04) Joseph's View on Rates

(20:52) Vaneck Ad

(21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money

(32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement)

(39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024

(44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)

(49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets

(52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally

(01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB)

(01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!!

Financial Conditions Remain Loose, Liquidity Has Surged | Mark Yusko Jan 27, 2024

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss Tesla's disappointing earnings, the stock market rally as liquidity has resurged & the current state of the Bitcoin & crypto markets. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

The Stock Market Is Pricing In A Soft Landing | Darius Dale Jan 24, 2024

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This week, Darius Dale Founder of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the current state of asset markets.

With the recession that never came to be, stock markets hovering around all time highs & Fed rate cuts in 2024, Darius makes the case that markets are pricing in goldilocks & a 2024 soft landing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:39) Markets Are Pricing Goldilocks

(06:29) The Recession That Never Came To Be

(10:55) DAS London Plug

(12:11) 2024 Elections & Janet Yellen's Liquidity Supportive Impulse

(15:25) The Highest Probability Is A Soft Landing In 2024