Inflection Point

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China’s Growth: The End Is Near | Leland Miller Mar 09, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International for a deep dive into the Chinese financial system. After founding China Beige Book over 12 years ago, Leland provides a data driven assessment of the Chinese economy exploring whether China's growth model is coming to an end.

Leland also discusses China's financial deleveraging, the demographics of China's population, the reversal in globalization, tensions with the U.S, conflict between Russia & Ukraine & much more.

Follow Leland Miller: @ChinaBeigeBook

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Historic Sanctions Are Reshaping the World Order | Weekly Round Up Mar 05, 2022

Show notes

In this week's round up, Mark and I are joined by special guest Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management. This week we were focused on answering one big question: "how will sanctions and financial exclusion reshape geopolitics?"

We kicked things off with a quote from Dwight Eisenhower's famous 1961 farewell address, wherein he coined the term "the military industrial complex." Eisenhower alluded to a powerful idea, which is that nations will always face pressure from without, but they must resist the urge to toss aside their ideals to face it.

We discussed how Eisenhower's idea applies to today's geopolitical landscape, where hostile foreign powers and escalating conflict are leading to financial exclusion on both the domestic and international stage.

Ultimately the talk converged on Bitcoin and whether or not state free money was possible or desirable. For that conclusion, you'll need to watch the episode.

Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Will Powell Pivot Again In 2022? | Mr. Blonde Mar 02, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of “On The Margin,” Mike Ippolito is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde. Taking a break from diamond heists and bank robberies, Mr. Blonde joins us to discuss whether Jerome Powell will be forced to pivot Fed rate hikes in 2022.

Mr. Blonde also shares his outlook on growth for 2022 and chats about market returns during Fed tightening cycles. They discuss how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect markets and whether inflation is secular or transitory.

Follow Mr. Blonde: @MrBlonde_macro

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Ukraine Conflict Causes Market Volatility | Weekly Round Up Feb 26, 2022

Show notes

In this week's round up, Mark and I dug into the investor uncertainty caused by the Russia Ukraine conflict. Disclaimer: war is always first and foremost a humanitarian crisis. It goes without saying that our hearts go out to Ukraine and those involved in the conflict.

Mark and I focused on the markets angle because we aren't geopolitical experts and that is where our expertise lies. The most important part of this story is, of course, the human side.

We began with the response in US equities to the news of the invasion, including the Nasdaq's move higher. We also covered the behavior of Russian equities and debt markets.

Other topics we went over include the inverted correlation between gold and Bitcoin, energy prices, investor sentiment, and historical analogs based on past war time.

Finally, we concluded with a discussion around SWIFT and the potential deplatforming of Russia. For that take, you'll have to watch the episode.

Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

The Macro Forces Driving Bitcoin | Plan B & Jurrien Timmer Feb 24, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity & PlanB the anonymous quant investor & creator of the Bitcoin S2F model.

Jurrien & PlanB discuss the current macro forces that are driving markets from Fed rate hikes, yield curve inversion & equity market valuations. In the second half of the discussion, Jurrien & PlanB discuss valuation models for Bitcoin, how current market conditions could effect Bitcoin & what the next phase of Bitcoin will be as it enters the geopolitical landscape.

Follow Plan B: @100trillionUSD

Follow Jurrien Timmer: @TimmerFidelity

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Canada Freezes Citizens Bank Accounts | Weekly Round Up Feb 19, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, Mark and I covered the rising cost of energy and the impact it's having on global economies. Next we went on to discuss record bearish sentiment in markets, and what that may signal for the days and months ahead.

Next, we did an updated on "Powell Pivot Watch," and re-examined the similarities between the Fed rate hike cycle in 2018 to where we are today. We did a refresher on home prices, where they might be going in the future and the critical link between homes and financial freedom for Americans.

Finally, we closed on the ongoing saga of financial sanctioning in Canada. For that, you'll have to listen to the show.

Follow Timothy Peterson: @nsquaredcrypto

Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

Bitcoin's Role In The Freedom Convoy Protests | Alex Gladstein, Greg Foss & Jeff Booth Feb 16, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guests Alex Gladstein, Greg Foss & Jeff Booth to discuss the ongoing Freedom Convoy Protests in Canada. We invited our guests to discuss the origins of the protests & how the situation in Canada has evolved.

Tune in to hear Alex, Greg & Jeff cover why Canadian truckers are protesting, how these protests compare with Occupy Wall Street, why GoFundMe cancelled the Canadian Freedom Convoy's fund & what Bitcoin's role in their fight for freedom is.

Follow Alex Gladstein: @gladstein

Follow Greg Foss: @FossGregfoss

Follow Jeff Booth: @JeffBooth

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Bullard Backs "Supersized" Rate Increase | Jospeh Wang Feb 12, 2022

Show notes

In this week's episode, I am joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley & Joseph Wang for a surprise cross-over (that we all knew was coming eventually ;) We missed Mark unfortunately who is away skiing, but he was with us in spirit and wore his bitcoin bull market socks in solidarity. We'll get em next week Mark!

We kicked things off with a deep dive into the record 7.5% CPI print. We took a look at what the driving components were, headline vs core, and much more. We also questioned how much of inflation was due to the Fed (demand side) vs the supply side (supply chain disruptions) and how effective rate hikes would be in tamping down inflation.

Next, we dove deep into the topic of yield curve inversion and got Joseph's opinion on the link between an inverted curve and a recession. We also covered Joseph's framework for how the world changed post great financial crisis, and how banking regulations may impact how trustworthy a signal the long end of the curve is.

Finally, we closed with Joseph's high-level thoughts on where the market is headed in 2022. For that, you'll have to tune into the show.

Follow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96

Follow Joseph Wang: @FedGuy12

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Bitcoin's Role in the 80 Year Debt Cycle | Charles Edwards Feb 09, 2022

Show notes

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investments. After releasing his Capriole's 2022 Market Outlook newsletter, we invited Charles to the show for a discussion about what he expects for 2022 & beyond.

Charles shares his thoughts on the macro outlook for 2022, where Bitcoin becomes a value vs momentum play, Bitcoin vs Ethereum & Bitcoin's role in the long term debt cycle.

Capriole Investments: http://capriole.com

Follow Charles Edwards: https://twitter.com/caprioleio

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

How to Value Bitcoin | Timothy Peterson and Mark Yusko Feb 05, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Mark and I were joined by special guest Timothy Peterson to discuss a very important topic: how to properly value Bitcoin. I've included a summary of our content below, but if you are interested in finding out more info about Tim or his approach, there are lots of good resources on his website here.

To kick things off, Tim gave us his framework for how to value Bitcoin, which relies on Metcalfe's Law. We talked about other networks including Facebook, Amazon, and even Tesla whose valuations can be traced to the same underlying principle.

We dove into historical periods where Bitcoin exceeded its fair value, and what caused those deviations. Next we took a look at Bitcoin's trailing returns vs user growth, and some other shorter term drivers of price action such as transaction volume.

Tim gave us some helpful comparisons between Bitcoin and other markets, such as the market for negative yielding debt and the Nasdaq. We walked through why Bitcoin is correlated to those markets.

Finally we ended on Ethereum, other crypto networks, and how network effects could impact a multi-chain future. For our conclusions there, you'll have to tune into the show.

Follow Timothy Peterson: @nsquaredcrypto

Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

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