Supply Shock

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**Supply Shock**

Supply Shock, hosted by Pete Rizzo, The Bitcoin Historian, explores the latest Bitcoin news with a deep historical perspective. Featuring in-depth interviews with industry experts, each episode connects current events to key moments in Bitcoin history, revealing patterns, lessons, and insights shaping the future of digital assets.

Latest Episodes:

An "Ocean Of Liquidity" Is Reversing | Neal Berger Oct 18, 2023

Show notes

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On today’s episode, Neal Berger Founder of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show for a discussion on navigating the uncertain year of 2023.

After launching his contrarian macro fund in 2021, and posting some of the best hedge fund returns in 2022 of 163%, Neal describes how 2023 has been a "challenging year" as his fund remains short stocks & bonds. Expecting the bond market sell-off to continue, Neil shares the path ahead for the rest of 2023 & into 2024. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) 2023 Has Been Challenging

(06:43) This Bond Market Sell-Off Isn't Over

(11:12) Higher Interest Rates Are Negative For Stocks

(14:12) Blockworks Research Ad

(14:59) The Ocean Of Liquidity Is In Reverse

(27:30) Looking Ahead To 2023/2024

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Inflation Has Peaked, Unless Oil Resurges | Weekly Roundup Oct 14, 2023

Show notes

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This week Mike & Mark discuss the recent sentiment in crypto markets. We then dive into this weeks CPI print, the bond market & how recessionary headwinds could start to emerge in the coming months. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in!

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Digital Asset Summit 2024 | London: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

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Bond Market Sell-Off Will Drive Equities Lower | Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic Oct 11, 2023

Show notes

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On today’s episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Logan’s speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063

The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle

(06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market

(17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off

(19:43) Blockworks Research Ad

(20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening

(27:48) Debt & Deficits

(35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets

(41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island

(47:41) Inflation

The Global Wrecking Ball: Surging Yields, U.S Dollar & Oil | Weekly Roundup Oct 07, 2023

Show notes

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the historic declines in the bond market with the long end sell-off continuing. We also discuss the blowout payrolls data, which under the surface may not be as hot as the headline suggests. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

Digital Asset Summit 2024 | London: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:14) DAS London

(06:11) Sell-Off In The Bond Market

(11:24) Payrolls Come In Hot

(18:54) The Global Wrecking Ball: Oil, U.S Dollar & U.S Yield's

(24:36) Blockworks Research Ad

(25:24) Beware Of FOMO

(35:10) Diving Into The Payrolls Data

(37:25) Are Equities About To Crack?

(41:49) What Stops This Bond Market From Selling Off?

(44:27) The BoJ Steps In To Curb Yen Losses

China's Old Economic Model Is Dying | Leland Miller Oct 04, 2023

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On today’s episode, Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the death of China's old economic model.

With China's weaker than expected reopening & many expecting the imminent collapse of China, we invited Leland Miller to the show to give a data driven look into the Chinese economy, to help us understand what is really going on beneath the surface. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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(00:00) Introduction

(02:31) Thing Aren't Great In China, But It Isn't Collapsing

(10:20) China's Old Economic Model Is Dying

(14:05) Xi Jinping's Push To "Common Prosperity"

(20:59) Blockworks Research Ad

(21:46) Inflation & Deflation In China

(27:30) How China's Growth Impacts Market's

(32:46) China's Rippling Inflation Impact

(37:54) U.S & China Relations

The Next Phase Of The Bond Bear Market | Weekly Roundup Sep 30, 2023

Show notes

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Mike and Mark tackle an explosive week of tremendous pain in the bond market alongside a continuing surge in oil prices. The pair consider the news surrounding potential Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and Mark reminds listeners of his saying that "risk cannot be destroyed, it can only be transformed." Filmed on September 29, 2023.

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) Renewed Bond Bear Market

(11:57) Oil Surges Again

(27:58) Blockworks Research Ad

(28:45) Bitcoin & Ether ETFs

(38:43) Sinister Saturday: Does Inflation Benefit The Elites?

(51:28) "Risk Is Like Energy: You Cannot Destroy It, You Can Only Transform It"

Is Goldilocks Going To End Soon? | Darius Dale Sep 27, 2023

Show notes

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Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, returns to On The Margin to update Mike on his views on stocks, bonds, and the economy. Dale expects a true soft landing will be unlikely in the absence of a productivity boom, and, having correctly called the economic resiliency of the U.S. this year, he explains why he is now expecting a hard landing. Filmed on September 21, 2023.

Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/DariusDale42

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) The Fed's New Dot Plot

(09:08) Darius's View On Interest Rates & Bond Yields

(20:50) Blockworks Research Ad

(21:37) The Sticky Inflation Narrative

(30:04) Darius' Outlook on Stocks & Bonds

The Market Doubts The Fed | Weekly Roundup Sep 23, 2023

Show notes

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

(00:00) Introduction

(01:10) Fed Meeting

(17:06) Foreign Holdings Of Treasurys

(26:20) Blockworks Research Ad

(27:07) Market Views On Stocks and Bonds

(55:27) Crypto & Bitcoin

Brent Johnson: “Heaven Help The World If Dollar Continues To Skyrocket” Sep 20, 2023

Show notes

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Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

On today’s episode, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to On The Margin to share his view on the scorching summer rally in the U.S. dollar against other currencies. The surge in the dollar has been so fast and steady that Johnson expects a pullback, however, he warns that if the dollar continues to skyrocket then “heaven help the world.”

Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:43) Where Is The Dollar Headed?

(11:59) Federal Reserve and Treasury Bond Prices

(21:19) Blockworks Research Ad

(22:07) Japan & China

(38:00) Inflation and Interest Rates

(44:20) Brent's Views on Recession Risk

A Second Bout Of Inflation, Or Disinflation? Sep 16, 2023

Show notes

Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T

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Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX

This week, Mike & Mark reflect on Blockworks' very own Permissionless II conference down in Austin after a busy week of panels, networking & most of all... Texas BBQ! We then take a deep dive into this weeks inflation data. Should we expect a second bout of inflation, or is disinflation still the consensus view? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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