Sound Investing

Latest Episodes:

4-Fund Combo and Your Overall Financial Picture Apr 15, 2020

Show notes

This podcast introduces the Distribution and Contribution Tables for the 4-Fund Combo, plus Paul discusses how these results compare with the other equity asset classes on the Fine Tuning, Distribution and Contribution tables. More than 60 new and updated tables are now available at PaulMerriman.com, generously created by Daryl Bahls.

These tables are designed to help you decide which equity asset classes you should have, and .how much fixed income you should hold to both meet your need for return and stay within your risk tolerance. Also the new tables help you compare the fixed and flexible distribution strategies using many different rates of distributions.

The challenge is to consider each of the pieces until you put it all together and find the one column that suggest you will meet your personal financial goals. When you find that column, you’ll know how much and which equity asset classes you should own, how much you’ll have in fixed income, how much you’ll have to spend in retirement, and how much you’ll likely leave to others.

Follow along in the discussion of the 4-Fund Combo with links to:

Contribution Tables: Table 47, Table 48, Table 50, Table 52 and Table 62

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The Ultimate Distribution Strategy-2020 Apr 08, 2020

Show notes

One of the biggest financial decisions we make can be the choice of distribution strategy in retirement. In this podcast Paul compares the risks and returns of flexible and fixed distribution strategies, not just in terms of money available for retirement expenses but also for heirs and charities at the end of life. He compares results of 4 and 5 percent fixed and flexible distributions, using both the S&P 500 and the Worldwide Equity Portfolio. For more on the subject, read our MarketWatch article, How much should you take out of your portfolio when you retire?

To get the most out of The Ultimate Distribution Strategy Paul suggests you download the following tables:

Fine Tuning Tables 1 and 2

Fixed Distribution Tables 8 and 9

Flexible Distribution Tables 28, 29, 32 and 33

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20 Q&A for March 2020’s Bear Market Apr 01, 2020

Show notes

From explaining how index funds are built to his opinion on how far the market will fall; from where to find resources for teaching highschoolers about personal finance to custodial accounts and rebalancing Target-Date funds, Paul answers 20 questions from his readers and listeners. Scan through and listen to those that interest you or tune in to the whole podcast for answers and insights into a variety of investor questions.

How to build the best comeback portfolio Mar 25, 2020

Show notes

When the market finally turns around and heads back up, what kind of portfolios are likely to perform better than the market in general? In this podcast Paul shares what he calls the Comeback Portfolio. During the discussion he uses some existing tables plus a couple of new tables to make his case. For those who want to download the tables here are the links in order of use:

Summary of 1, 15 and 40 years of Equity Returns (1928-2019)

Table 1 and Table 3 from Annualized Asset Class Returns by Decade: 1930-2019

Ultimate Buy and Hold Worldwide Equity Portfolio Tables (50% US / 50% Int'l)

4-Fund Combo Equity Portfolio Tables (100% US / 00% Int’l)

Fine-Tuning Table 4-Fund Combo Equity Portfolio

On April 11, Silicon Valley AAII is hosting an online workshop with Paul and Chris Pedersen. For those interested in attending please find the details at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/sv-aaii-april-main-event-the-ultimate-buy-and-hold-strategy-tickets-100032899094

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Bear Markets and Fixed Distributions Mar 18, 2020

Show notes

The two most important articles and podcasts The Merriman Financial Education Foundation produces each year are the "Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy” — which helps you determine what equity asset classes to hold in your portfolio — and "Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocation” — which shows how much you should own in bonds to control volatility. However, when it comes time to take money out of investments for retirement, our site includes a series of tables to aid you in determining the Best Distribution Strategy.

In this podcast, Paul focuses on strategies for investors who have saved “enough” but not much extra. These investors usually use a Fixed-Distribution Strategy. There is a long series of Fixed-Distribution Tables, but today Paul talks specifically about Tables 7, 8, 9, 12 and 13.

Paul also discusses the beginnings of the recent bear market, plus longer-term bear market results. The average bear market loss is 33% to 37%, depending on the period covered.Next week Paul addresses Flexible or Variable Distributions, the "Ultimate Distribution Strategy".

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20 things you should know about small-cap value Mar 11, 2020

Show notes

Focusing on small-cap value from every angle Paul knows, this podcast compares Price-to-Earnings ratios, Price-to-Book ratios, average size company and one-year and 40-year period returns. Paul shares the latest academic research on small-cap value, comparison of risk and return for S&P vs. small-cap value asset classes, and the likely long-term impact of adding even a little small-cap value to a portfolio. He also discusses the Fine Tuning Your Asset Allocations table for small-cap value, and Tables 1 and 3 from "90 Years of Evidence Shows Investor Patience Leads to Better Returns".

Also See: “All About Small-Cap Value"

2020 paper by Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French paper, The Value Premium

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Should I try to time the market? Mar 04, 2020

Show notes

Paul shares writings and wisdom from two of his trusted Truth Tellers, George Sisti of On Course Financial Planning and Dr. Jim Dahle of The White Coat Investor. Both of these experts are focused on helping people be better buy-and-hold investors. George's blog post is titled “Here We Go Again!” and Jim’s blog post is “Should I try to time the market?”

While Paul is not an advocate of timing for most investors, he tries to help investors understand that most comments about timing do not represent the realities of what timing is meant to accomplish, which is to protect investors during major market declines. For those interested in timing, this link takes investors to graphs by Dr. Edward Yardini that show timing at work for 90 years. Paul's hope is that investors will see that they may have periods of feeling pleased with the work of timing, but many more periods when market timing is very unproductive.

Paul also discusses changes in upcoming AAII presentations, as Don McDonald of Vestory has offered to substitute in making Paul's presentations in Boston, Westport and NYC, while Chris Pedersen may make the presentations in Silicon Valley and San Diego. None of these are finalized but we will have more on these in coming week. (Click here for upcoming presentations).

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Fine-Tuning Your Asset Allocations 2020 Update Feb 26, 2020

Show notes

Do you want to have a better idea of the range — or returns and risks of loss — that different equity asset classes have generated over a long period of time? In this podcast, Paul discusses 5 tables covering the S&P 500, Worldwide Equity (50% U.S./50% International), Worldwide Equity (70% U.S./30% International), All Value (50% U.S./50% International) All Value (70% U.S./30% International). In each case the table will show 50 years of annual returns of the equity portfolio, as well as returns with 9 different combinations of fixed income and equity. It will be helpful to listen to Paul’s podcast on the Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy 2020 Update before listening to this podcast. Our enormous thanks to Daryl Bahls for building the tables for this podcast and the balance of the more than 60 tables we will cover in the next 2 months.

Links to Tables:

S&P 500

Worldwide Equity (50% U.S./50% International)

Worldwide Equity (70% U.S./30% International)

All Value (50% U.S./50% International)

All Value (70% U.S./30% International)

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The Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy 2020 Update Feb 19, 2020

Show notes

The most important work we have done over the last 38 years has been to help investors identify the equity asset classes they should consider holding in their portfolio. In this podcast, along with the accompanying tables, Paul updates investors on the results of his Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy from 1970 through 2019. These tables are designed to help investors see the changes in risk and return when 9 equity asset classes are added to the S&P 500 index. The discussion and tables compare portfolios of 50% U.S./50% international equity asset classes, (See Table) and 70% U.S./30% International equity asset classes (See Table) with the S&P 500. They also compare the results for each portfolio using annual and monthly rebalancing. Additionally, there is a complete list of funds and indexes used in the study- Data Disclosure (UBH-AV) Data Disclosure (UBH-WW). Special thanks to Daryl Bahls for all the work he’s done in building the tables for this podcast and the balance of the more than 60 tables we will cover in the next 2 months.

Link also mentioned in this podcast:

Best of Class Recommendations for all the equity classes.

If you find this information of value, please like, share, and visit PaulMerriman.com to subscribe to our FREE twice-a-month newsletter. Join more than 20,000 savvy investors for Paul Merriman’s free “Sound Investing” newsletter delivered twice a month to your inbox at https://paulmerriman.com/signup/ All subscribers will receive a FREE copy of Paul’s new book coming out later this year.

View Paul’s videos at https://paulmerriman.com/videos/

Get you FREE “How To Invest” series books at https://paulmerriman.com/how-to-invest-series-complimentary-download/

The big payoff for asset class diversification Feb 12, 2020

Show notes

Paul was interviewed by Rick Ferri, the host of Bogleheads on Investing, on Feb. 3, 2020. During and after the recording, scores of questions and comments were written at the Bogleheads chatroom. This podcast is Paul's reply to a number of the topics discussed with Rick and the questions and comments, broken into two sections.

The first section focuses on the basic difference between the investment beliefs of John Bogle and Paul Merriman or, more appropriately, of Gene Fama and Kenneth French, the academics responsible for most of the early work on “factor” investing.

The second section is Paul’s responses to many of the comments and questions posted on the Boglehead Forum after the interview aired with Rick Ferri. These questions centered on small cap and value premiums, buy and hold vs. market timing, pros and cons of simple vs. complex strategies, how aggressive young investors should be, and Paul’s claim to making over 30% a year for 30 years. He also discusses the things he and Bogle totally agreed worked in the best interest of investors.

The Bogleheads® motto is Investing Advice Inspired by Jack Bogle. We, at The Merriman Financial Education Foundation, are part of his campaign "to give ordinary investors a fair shake.” The site consists of this wiki and the Bogleheads® forum, both built by volunteers dedicated to helping people begin or improve their investing by applying our investing principles. They even built a page for Paul’s book, Live It Up Without Outliving Your Money.

Also related to this podcast:

Rick Ferri’s “Core-4” website

Article and Tables: 90 Years of Performance

Join more than 20,000 savvy investors for Paul Merriman’s free “Sound Investing” newsletter delivered twice a month to your inbox at https://paulmerriman.com/signup/

View Paul’s videos at https://paulmerriman.com/videos/

Get your FREE “How To Invest” series books at https://paulmerriman.com/how-to-invest-series-complimentary-download/