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    Business

    Sinica Podcast

    A weekly discussion of current affairs in China with journalists, writers, academics, policymakers, business people and anyone with something compelling to say about the country that’s reshaping the world. Hosted by Kaiser Kuo.

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    Latest Episodes:
    China's push for RMB internationalization Dec 08, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, Kaiser and Jeremy welcome Diana Choyleva and Dinny McMahon, who recently published a report for the Wilson Center on China's efforts to internationalize the Renminbi, its currency. Diana Choyleva is chief economist and founder of Enodo Economics, an independent macroeconomic forecasting consultancy she set up in 2016. Dinny McMahon is a former Wall Street Journal reporter and author of the book China's Great Wall of Debt. Their report is called “China’s Quest for Financial Self-Reliance: How Beijing Plans to Decouple from the Dollar-Based Global Trading and Financial System.”

    2:38 – The advantages the U.S. enjoys through the dollar’s global primacy

    4:40 – How Beijing sees the dollar’s dominance as a strategic vulnerability

    7:11 – Other countries who actively pursued internationalization of their currency

    10:07 – International trust deficit regarding China’s currency

    13:37 – Right-sizing China’s currency ambitions

    15:13 – How China incentives increased demand for the RMB

    24:19 – Are we currently at a critical turning point of currency displacement?

    36:42 – The role of digital currency in China’s monetary strategy

    43:42 – The BRI as a mechanism for expanding the circulation of the RMB

    A transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations:

    Jeremy: This is Going to Hurt: Secret Diaries of a Junior Doctor by Adam Kay; Kay's Anatomyby Adam Kay

    Diana: Picking up dancing as a pastime; China: The Gathering Threat by Constantine Menges

    Dinny: Lombard Street by Walter Bagehot

    Kaiser: The Amazon miniseries The English



    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    A familiar drumbeat: Michael Mazarr on the run-up to the Iraq invasion and parallels with China Dec 01, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, Kaiser is joined by Michael J. Mazarr, author of the book Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy, which examines the decision to invade Iraq in March 2003. Mike is a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation and a former professor at the National War College, and he warns of certain parallels between what happened 20 years ago and the growing sense of urgency and moral imperative to confront China that he now senses in Washington.

    3:40 – Patterns that lead to poor decision-making in the realm of foreign policy and warfare

    8:30 – Parallels between American discourse on Iraq and China

    13:54 – American exceptionalism and the missionary mindset

    15:51 – Much like the US experience after 9/11, could an equivalent “deeply felt imperative” trigger catastrophic conflict with China?

    21:15 – The danger of moralistic thinking overriding rational cost-benefit analysis

    27:37 – What does Washington hope to gain from the imputation of CCP illegitimacy?

    31:47 – Debunking the claim that Washington exaggerates threats for the sake of increasing the defense budget

    35:49 – The role of media and Congress in the lead-up to the Iraq war

    40:49 – The difference between effective policymaking and policy negligence: assessing the Bush and Biden administrations

    47:29 – Adapting the liberal “rules-based international order” to reflect contemporary realities

    52:27 – The shortcomings of a reductionist “democracy vs. authoritarianism” foreign policy

    A full transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations:

    Mike: Mr. X and the Pacific by Paul Heer; The Guardians: Kingman Brewster, His Circle, and the Rise of the Liberal Establishmentby Geoffrey Kabaservice

    Kaiser: Babel: Or the Necessity of Violence: An Arcane History of the Oxford Translators' Revolution by R.F. Kuang



    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Special episode: The COVID lockdown protests, with David Moser and Jeremiah Jenne Nov 29, 2022
    Show notes

    We've got a special bonus episode this week on the protests over the weekend of November 26th-27th in multiple cities around China. Joining Kaiser and Jeremy are old friends David Moser and Jeremiah Jenne, co-hosts of the Barbarians at the Gate podcast, who have 50 years in Beijing between them. David Moser is a linguist, academic administrator, and accomplished jazz pianist and composer. Jeremiah Jenne is a writer and historian. Both David and Jeremiah are still in Beijing, and they offer an on-the-ground account of what happened and what it all means.

    A transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations –

    Jeremy: The Twitter account 李老师不是你老师 (Lǐ lǎoshī bùshì nǐ lǎoshī), with the handle @whyyoutouzhele; Cindy Yu’s Twitter account @CindyXiaodanYu

    Jeremiah: Hygienic Modernity: Meanings of Health and Disease in Treaty-Port China by Ruth Rogaski

    David: The Globe and Mail article “In rare show of weakness, China's censors struggle to keep up with zero COVID protests” by James Griffith; Speak Not: Empire, Identity and the Politics of Language by James Griffith

    Kaiser: Happiness is 4 Million Pounds, a New York Times documentary by Hao Wu

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Financial Times reporter Yuan Yang on China-Europe relations Nov 23, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, Kaiser & Jeremy welcome Yuan Yang, a reporter for the Financial Times who was until recently covering technology in Beijing. Now based in London, her beat is China-Europe relations, and on this episode she discusses German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent trip to China, and how Europe and European countries are navigating the fraught U.S.-China relationship.

    6:09 – Providing a balanced account of China’s tech ecosystem

    9:38 – German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent trip to Beijing

    16:00 – The strategic autonomy of European foreign policy

    18:41 – European countries’ fractured response to US tech restrictions on China

    21:58 – EU policies towards Xinjiang

    24:31 – The impact of tech restrictions on European supply chains

    27:39 – The efficacy of sanctions

    30:12 – How China’s position on Russia damaged its reputation in Europe

    33:48 – European reaction to Biden-Xi meeting

    35:57 – How a change in the American presidency could disrupt the Transatlantic alliance system

    40:55 – The formulation of Sunak’s China policy

    43:50 – Yuan’s new forthcoming book Private Revolutions

    A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com

    Jeremy: Jewish comedian Ari Shaffir

    Yuan: The Emily Wells album Regards to the End; The Dispossessed by Ursula Le Guin

    Kaiser: mongulai.com, an e-commerce website specializing in Mongolian artisanal crafts; the Netflix show Barbarians

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Evan Feigenbaum on the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region Nov 17, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, in lieu of the regular show we present a keynote address given by Evan Feigenbaum, VP for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at the recent East Asia Strategy Forum, held on November 1-2 in Ottawa, Canada. The forum is put on annually by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada — APF Canada — and by the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. The Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada is a not-for-profit organization focused on Canada’s relations with Asia. Its mission is to be Canada’s catalyst for engagement with Asia and Asia’s bridge to Canada. The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy (IPD) is non-profit and non-partisan international affairs think tank operating in the United States and Canada dedicated to promoting dialogue, diplomacy, prudent realism, and military restraint. The event's moderator was Jeff Nankivell, CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada or APF Canada. Jeff was the Consul General to HK before taking his post at APF Canada.

    Kaiser also offers his quick take on the three-hour meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden in Bali, Indonesia.

    3:23 – Kaiser’s analysis of the recent Biden and Xi Meeting

    10:19 – Start of Evan Feigenbaum's speech

    13:26 – The tension between economic and security interests in the Indo-Pacific

    20:06 – The tension between coalition-building and fragmentation in the Indo-Pacific

    24:02 – The American approach to strategic competition with China in the region

    32:34 – Question 1: What role can American allies play in setting a positive agenda?

    37:54 – Question 2: Do American national security issues have a tendency to get distorted by domestic political and economic considerations?

    51:34 – Question 3: Given domestic political constraints, is there any chance of diminishing the bipartisan consensus against China?

    54:29 – Question 4: Is there a conflict between the ‘rules-based international order’ and implementing targeted restrictions towards China?

    57:17 – Question 5: How sustainable is China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine war?

    A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.



    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    New America President Anne-Marie Slaughter on balancing China competition and global imperatives Nov 10, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Anne-Marie Slaughter, a leading American public intellectual who serves as president of New America and was Director of Policy Planning for the U.S. State Department during the first Obama administration. Anne-Marie talks about how collaboration on issues of global concern — pandemics, global warming, and more — requires the U.S. to deprioritize some aspects of its competition with China.

    1:59 – Contradictions of the Biden doctrine

    5:18 – Reconciling Biden’s China policy and the possibility of climate cooperation

    13:43 – Deemphasizing national security on the American foreign policy agenda

    20:23 – Potential for “positive competition”

    21:50 – The concept of networked governance

    36:04 – The dynamics of groupthink in US decision-making

    43:05 – Hope for the younger generation’s prospective policy shift

    47:38 – Does race factor into our hostility towards China?

    50:19 – Potential for an affirmative vision on Biden’s China policy

    54:52 – How revisionist are China’s ambitions?

    59:49 – American tolerance for a diminished global role

    A transcript of this interview is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations:

    Anne-Marie: To Paradiseby Hanya Yanagihara; A Little Lifeby Hanya Yanagihara; The Ministry for the Futureby Kim Stanley Robinson; What It Feels Like to Be a Birdby David Sibley

    Kaiser: Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century by Sergei Guriev and Daniel Treisman





    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    The 20th Party Congress postgame show with Damien Ma and Lizzi Lee Nov 02, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, our friends at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs invited us for a live show taping before a small group. Kaiser is joined by Lizzi Lee, MIT-trained economist-turned-reporter who hosts the Chinese-language show "Wall Street Today" as well as The China Project's "Live with Lizzi Lee," both on Youtube; and by Damien Ma, who heads the Paulson Institute's in-house think tank MacroPolo. These two top-shelf analysts of Chinese politics break down what was important — and what was just a sideshow — at the 20th Party Congress, and offer their knowledgeable perspectives on the individuals named to key posts and what this likely means for China's direction. Don't miss this one!

    2:40 – Findings from MacroPolo’s “fantasy PBSC” experiment

    8:18 – Did China watchers overemphasize Xi Jinping’s political constraints?

    12:31 – Support for Li Qiang across different political factions

    17:23 – The changing factional composition of Chinese elite politics

    20:20 – Return of the technocrats

    23:27 – “Generation-skipping” in China’s recent political promotions

    28:26 – The selection of Cai Qi

    32:46 – Li Shulei as a successor to Wang Huning

    37:07 – The future of China’s economic leadership

    39:52 – Selection of the vice premiers

    41:18 – The future of China’s diplomatic core

    45:28 – The Hu Jintao episode

    49:22 – Revising the “Zero-COVID” policy

    51:17 – Reassessing China’s intentions vis-à-vis Taiwan

    A transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations:

    Lizzi: Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: Elite Power Struggles in the Soviet Union and China after Stalin and Maoby Joseph Torigian

    Damien: Slouching Towards Utopia by Brad DeLong

    Kaiser: "Taiwan, the World-Class Puzzle," a Radio Open Source podcast hosted by Christopher Lydon

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Grifter, chaos agent, or CCP spy? The New Yorker's Evan Osnos on Guo Wengui Oct 27, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, Evan Osnos, staff writer for The New Yorker, joins hosts Kaiser Kuo and Jeremy Goldkorn to talk about his new piece on one of the most puzzling figures to come out of China: Guo Wengui, a.k.a. Miles Kwok, who took what he learned about dealing with power and money in China and applied those lessons to the U.S., insinuating himself with leading figures of the American right. Who is this mysterious man, and what is he really after? In an unscripted episode that will bring some listeners back to the grotty apartment in Beijing where Sinica recorded in its very early days, Evan, Kaiser, and Jeremy parse the mysteries of the strange phenomenon of Guo Wengui.

    03:37 – Who is Guo Wengui?

    10:07 – Orville Schell’s experience with Guo Wengui

    14:48 – Steve Bannon’s comparison between Guo and Trump

    17:40 – The process of fact-checking this piece

    23:03 – Guo’s potential ties to the pro-Xi Jinping clique

    26:02 – VOA’s interview with Guo

    30:06 – Guo’s campaign against Teng Biao and other Chinese dissidents

    33:57 – Guo’s role as an interlocutor on behalf of the MSS

    39:00 – Steve Wynn’s efforts to extradite Guo

    42:10 – Guo’s impact on the Chinese diaspora community

    45:11 – Guo’s influence on US-China relations

    A transcript of this interview is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations:

    Jeremy: "President Trump's First Term," by Evan Osnos, a New Yorker article written in 2016 predicting what would happen to the U.S. if Donald Trump won in 2016. (Spoiler: he did. And Evan was right).

    Evan: An audio tribute to legendary New Yorker editor John Bennet: https://www.cjr.org/special_report/johnbennet.php

    Kaiser: The Pillars of the Earthby Ken Follet, a forgivably melodramatic historical fiction novel with an emphasis on architecture




    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Overreach and overreaction, with Susan Shirk Oct 20, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Susan Shirk, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific and Research Professor and Chair of the 21st Century China Center at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at UCSD, about how the deliberately collective leadership of the Hu Jintao years set the stage for the over-concentration of power under Xi Jinping and created conditions for overreach. She argues that Chinese overreach was met with American overreaction — not just in the Trump years, but continuing into the Biden administration.

    11:35 – The thesis of Overreach and misconceptions based on the title

    15:50 – The decline of collective leadership

    19:57 – Selection process of politburo members

    27:48 – The advantages of China’s former collective leadership system

    31:40 – How collective leadership often lead to overreach

    39:40 – How personalistic, overly centralized rule can also result in overreach

    43:02 – Increased paranoia, insecurity, and “permanent purge” culture under Xi

    49:59 – American overreaction to China’s ambitions

    A transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations:

    Susan – Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans, and the Making of the Modern World by Howard French

    Kaiser – His hobby of Asian archery and finding a community/activity you’re passionate about outside your professional line of work

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


    Podcasting The Prince: Sue-Lin Wong of The Economist on her Xi Jinping podcast Oct 13, 2022
    Show notes

    This week on Sinica, Kaiser and Jeremy are joined by Sue-Lin Wong, who until recently covered China for The Economist and hosted an eight-part podcast series all about Xi Jinping called The Prince. The podcast features interviews with a wide range of China-watchers, peers of Xi, dissidents, and many others who offer insights into what makes Xi tick.

    3:38 – Reason behind naming the podcast “the Prince”

    5:53 – Differences between traditional journalism and podcasting

    9:52 – The role of Sue-Lin’s mother in the podcast

    13:37 – How corruption influenced Xi’s leadership style

    19:29 – Identifying Xi’s greatest anxieties: party in-fighting, the collapse of the USSR

    22:48 – Early signs of Xi’s ideological underpinnings most China watchers missed

    29:33 – Did the CCP’s internal crisis make Xi’s rise inevitable?

    32:57 – Is Xi Jinping the most powerful man in the world?

    37:12 – Reframing the engagement debate after Xi’s administration

    41:51 – David Rennie’s view on China: “a giant utilitarian experiment”

    46:45 – Key insights on Xi that listeners of the Prince should walk away with

    52:16 – How Sue-Lin would brief an American policymaker on Xi Jinping’s main motivations

    A transcript of this episode is available at TheChinaProject.com.

    Recommendations:

    Jeremy – A Matter of Perspective: Parsing Insider Accounts of Xi Jinping Ahead of the 20th Party Congress, an article on The China Story written by Neil Thomas

    Sue-Lin – Race to the Galaxy,a two-player board game

    Kaiser – Interview with the Vampire, a new AMC TV series

    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.


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