Show notes
NFL Week 3 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 38-13 (75%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 3 card: his best bet of the week plus a second bet, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games and Joe Gibbs on the Week 3 referees.
It starts with four NFL matchups. The Chargers defense, stout against the run and falling apart against the pass, going to Buffalo to face Josh Allen. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has every Seattle touchdown this season, against a Washington defense that blitzes. The Cleveland Browns, who have played the two toughest run defenses in the league and now get one of the softest. And Drake Maye going to Jacksonville, into the coverage that keeps finding him.
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Games covered: Ole Miss at Florida, USC at Oregon, Texas at Tennessee, Chargers at Bills, Seahawks at Commanders, Browns at Panthers, Patriots at Jaguars, Jets at Lions, Titans at Giants, Chiefs at Dolphins, Texans at Colts, Rams at Broncos on Sunday Night Football and Eagles at Bears on Monday Night Football.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
• Why the Chargers are number two in the NFL against early down runs and still in trouble in Buffalo
• The play action and two high mismatch that Buffalo does not have to work to create
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s blitz usage and what Washington’s blitz rate does to it
• Why Cleveland’s whole offensive profile has been a strength of schedule story, and what changes this week
• The coverage Drake Maye keeps seeing, and who plays it most in the NFL
• Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games, including the one data point he trusts this early in the season
• Rich Hribar’s three Week 3 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders
• The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs’ three picks, including a crew the Broncos are 1-6 with at home
• Warren’s Week 3 best bet, plus one more bet on a second game
CHAPTERS
00:00 Warren’s best bets record and today’s show
01:33 Chargers at Bills
05:11 Seahawks at Commanders
08:21 Browns at Panthers
13:26 Patriots at Jaguars
16:06 College football with Ryan McCrystal
16:24 Ole Miss at Florida
18:53 USC at Oregon
20:42 Texas at Tennessee
24:46 45% off the season with code SHOW45
25:57 Rich Hribar prop 1: Jets at Lions
29:35 Prop 2: Titans at Giants
33:04 Prop 3: Chiefs at Dolphins
36:38 The ref report with Joe Gibbs
37:10 Texans at Colts
38:51 Rams at Broncos, Sunday Night Football
41:00 Eagles at Bears, Monday Night Football
42:41 OddsJam, code WARREN
43:11 Warren’s best bet of the week
47:43 One more bet
50:04 Wrap-up
Watch the video version on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis
PROMO CODES
SHOW45: 45% off any full season betting package at sharp.football
OddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, oddsjam.com
GUESTS
Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs
Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football
Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis
Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball
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