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    Science

    Science Fictions

    A weekly podcast about the latest scientific controversies, with Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie

    sciencefictionspod.substack.com

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Tom Chivers and Stuart Ritchie

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    Latest Episodes:
    Paid-only Episode 7: Youth gender medicine & the Cass Review Apr 23, 2024
    Show notes

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com

    The evidence for puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones for young people with gender dysphoria is “remarkably weak”. That’s according to the Cass Review, a new in-depth report commissioned by NHS England.

    As you might imagine, the report’s conclusions have been somewhat controversial. In this paid-subscriber-only episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart read through the Cass Report, consider the arguments of its critics, and try to put the whole thing in context.


    Episode 34: Does depression exist? Apr 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Several previous episodes of The Studies Show have covered depression and treatments for it, but none have really considered what depression is. It’s time to do that. It turns out that some scientists have made serious critiques of the standard way of thinking about depression, and argue that we need a revolution in the way we measure it.

    In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart take nothing for granted - they look into the idea of “latent variables”, read the studies critiquing the concept of a single, monolithic “depression”, and talk about what this all means for how we treat people with these often-terrible symptoms.

    We’re proud to be sponsored by Works in Progress magazine, which is, as they put it, “a magazine of new and underrated ideas to improve the world”. You can find their beautifully-illustrated and detailed essays on all kinds of scientific and technological subjects at worksinprogress.co.

    Show notes

    * Our World in Data on depression prevalence

    * And covering some of the problems in estimating depression prevalence

    * Meta-analysis on antidepressant trials

    * Study looking at how depression rates have (or haven’t) changed over time

    * Article criticising the serotonin hypothesis of depression…

    * …and a rebuttal

    * Study showing how tricky it is to find replicable brain correlates of things like depression

    * Eiko Fried’s website, with his blog and links to his papers

    * Study on “the 52 symptoms of major depression”

    * Study showing how depression measures might not be measuring the same thing over time

    * Study showing that the same seems not to be true for intelligence

    * Article “revisiting” (strongly critiquing) the theoretical and empirical basis for depression research

    * A new-ish statistical way of thinking about the symptoms of depression: as part of a dynamic network

    Credits

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

    Episode 33: Probability (and Tom's new book) Apr 09, 2024
    Show notes

    Everything is Predictable: How Bayes' Remarkable Theorem Explains the World. That’s the new book—out on April 25 in the UK and May 7 in the US—by our very own Tom Chivers!

    In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart cover some of the historical sections of the book, and talk about where some of our basic ideas about probability come from (it turns out to be a weird combination of inveterate gamblers and Presbyterian ministers).

    The Studies Show is sponsored by Works in Progress Magazine - the best place online to find deep discussions of the ideas that have driven human progress, and that might drive it even further in future. The latest issue of Works in Progress is available right now, at worksinprogress.co.

    Show notes

    * The only citation that matters this week: Tom’s new book, Everything is Predictable. It’s available NOW for pre-order in the UK, and in the US.

    * And for those reading this on Substack, here’s the rather lovely front cover:

    Credits

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

    Episode 32: Microplastics Apr 02, 2024
    Show notes

    Microplastics are everywhere: there are teeny-tiny plastic particles in your drinking water, your food, your air - and perhaps even in your internal organs. How worried should you be?

    In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart look into the research on microplastics, covering all the reasons that the health effects of microscopic particles are not straightforward to study. They also look in detail at a scary new study that apparently found, according to one headline, that microplastics “could raise [your] risk of stroke and heart attack”.

    Russian serfs! Railroad tunnels! Silkworms! The Zika virus! What do they all have in common? They’re all the subjects of fascinating, data-rich articles in the latest issue of Works in Progress magazine. We’re proud to say that Works in Progress sponsors The Studies Show.

    Show notes

    * The website of The Ocean Cleanup: the org removing vast amounts of macroplastic from the seas, and stopping it getting there in the first place

    * Zebrafish study showing how dyes can leach out of microplastics and cause confusion for researchers

    * Study on the effects of the solvent/dispersant, as well as the characteristics of microplastics, on cells

    * Review study noting the problem of bouyancy for in vitro microplastic studies

    * Review of health effects of microplastics, with a list of methodological problems for the field (and suggestions for how to solve them)

    * Another even more recent review

    * Widely-cited 2017 study of mice and microplastics…

    * …strongly criticised in a follow-up letter

    * The new NEJM study on microplastics, carotid artery plaques, and health

    * Coverage in the Guardian, The Conversation, and Medical Xpress

    Credits

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

    Studies Show Short 1: Emotional Intelligence Mar 29, 2024
    Show notes

    As an extra way of thanking our paid subscribers, we’re going to post some shorter episodes in addition to the usual weekly hour-long ones.

    This first short episode (available to everyone for free; after this they’re paid-only) is about the idea of Emotional Intelligence. Does your “EQ” matter as much as your “IQ”? How can you even test that, anyway?

    To listen to future short episodes, as well as accessing all our paid-only stuff, you need to become a paid subscriber. Go to www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe to see the options.

    Show notes

    * Useful debate paper from 2022 between proponents and sceptics of emotional intelligence research

    Credits

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

    Paid-only Episode 6: Bicycle helmets Mar 26, 2024
    Show notes

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com

    Most people think it’s obvious that you should wear a helmet when cycling. It might save your life if you fall off and hit your head. Duh.

    But over the years, many contrarian arguments have pushed back against this seemingly-obvious point. What if people engage in “risk compensation”, where they cycle more dangerously because they know they’re wearing a helmet? What about if encouraging helments puts people off cycling so they miss the health benefits?

    In this paid-subscriber-only episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart try to work out who’s right.

    To listen to the full version of this episode and see the show notes, you’ll need to be a paid subscriber to The Studies Show podcast on Substack. Go to www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe to see the options. If you’re already a paid subscriber: thank you!


    Episode 31: The trouble with meta-analysis Mar 19, 2024
    Show notes

    We all love to cite meta-analyses. They’re the review studies where scientists take every single piece of research ever published on a particular question, and then calculate the overall “true” effect across all of them. Putting together all those studies is a much better way to get to the truth… isn’t it?

    In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart give a intro to meta-analysis, and then talk about several major problems with the whole idea. Is meta-analysis—relied upon for making so many important scientific decisions, and cited in so many of our previous episodes—in serious need of a rethink?

    We’re proud to be sponsored by Works in Progress magazine. If you’re intrested in in-depth, data-rich articles on often-surprising topics relating to human progress, history of technology, and scientific discovery, there’s no better place than WiP. Their most recent February 2024 issue is replete with articles on organ markets, vaccine challenge trials, the underappreciated power of silk, and much more. Check it out at this link.

    Show notes

    * Slide show from the Cochrane Collaboration on the basics of meta-analysis

    * Description of the GRADE guidelines for assessing study quality

    * Below is a funnel plot, a method of testing for publication bias in meta-analysis. Source: we asked an AI to randomly generate some data and display it in a funnel plot, just for illustration. This funnel plot is relatively symmetrical and probably wouldn’t indicate much publication bias:

    * Criticism of funnel plots; Nature news reporting on the criticism

    * Stuart’s Substack article on the homeopathy meta-analysis (and the retraction note for that meta-analysis)

    * The PET-PEESE technique for meta-analysis; and a criticism of it

    * Useful paper that compares between different bias-correction methods for meta-analysis

    * The p-curve website, which has the paper explaining the technique and a useful app where you can do your own p-curve

    * Stuart’s Substack article on the meta-analysis on “nudges”

    * Further criticism of the nudge meta-analysis, with important points about “meaningless means” (and yet more criticism)

    Credits

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

    Episode 30: The origin of life Mar 12, 2024
    Show notes

    Don’t worry, it’s nothing important this week - only the origin of all life on planet Earth. No biggie. Sure, life evolved by natural selection, but to get evolution going, you need to have life in the first place. So where did it come from?

    Scientists have theories about “abiogenesis” - the moment around 3.5 billion years ago when, having never existed before, biology began. In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart look into the theories, and some of the recent studies where scientists have tried to recreate the conditions that might’ve sparked self-replicating molecules. Are we any nearer to answering one of the biggest questions of all?

    The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress, the online magazine where you can find the best writing on science, technology, and human progress. The latest issue of Works in Progress includes amazing articles on the history of serfdom in Russia, what it’s like to be deliberately infected with the zika virus, and how we can create safe markets for organ donation. You can read all that and much more, all for free, at this link.

    Show notes

    * Darwin’s 1871 “warm little pond” letter

    * JBS Haldane writing about the origin of life in 1929

    * The famous Miller-Urey experiment from 1953

    * Nick Lane and Joana Xavier’s 2024 commentary article in Nature, describing the RNA world hypothesis vs. the hydrothermal vents hypothesis, and the open science problems in origin-of-life research

    * 2015 review on the RNA world hypothesis

    * 2008 review of the deep-sea vents hypothesis

    * 2023 PNAS paper with a mathematical model of the co-evolution of replicators and reproducers

    * 2024 study finding that long-chain fatty acids can be produced in conditions resembling deep-sea hydrothermal vents

    Credits and acknowledgements

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. We thank Prof. Nick Lane for talking us through the theories of abiogenesis (but he’s not responsible for any mistakes in the show).


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

    Episode 29: Cognitive decline Mar 05, 2024
    Show notes

    The discourse has once again turned to a feverish discussion of cognitive decline. Which 2024 US Presidential candidate has it worse? What does that mean for the campaign and for the Presidency in general?

    In this episode of The Studies Show, your rapidly-ageing hosts look at some of the research on cognitive ageing and cognitive decline. What happens when you give cognitive tests to people of different ages? Do those tests actually matter? They then ask whether there’s a chance that the received wisdom about cognitive ageing is wrong, and that maybe they can hold onto their precious faculties for just a little longer…

    We’re proud to be sponsored by Works in Progress magazine. If you’ve ever been interested in the process of science, the history of technology, and how to use policy to speed up human progress, then WiP is the magazine for you. Their new February 2024 issue is out now.

    Show notes

    * Example of a recent article on Joe Biden’s cognitive decline; example of the same for Donald Trump

    * The above is Figure 1 from this 2019 review on cognitive ageing. The three panels show: levels of fluid reasoning ability at different ages; levels of crystallised knowledge at different ages; the prevalence rate of dementia in different age ranges

    * Yes, the Woodcock-Johnson Tests exist

    * 2016 study showing similar patterns of cognitive ageing in Tsimane forager-farmers in the Bolivian Amazon

    * 2012 review on cognitive ageing; see Figure 1 for the “Fortune 500 CEO” graph described in the podcast

    * Study on how IQ-type tasks and more practical tasks change together in old age

    * Study on cognitive ageing and susceptibility to scams

    * Tom’s IEEE Spectrum article on how robots learn

    * Older (2004) article on cognitive ageing; Figure 1 is a useful comparion between cross-sectional and longitudinal studies

    * Book chapter with a useful discussion on when cognitive ageing begins

    * 2022 Nature article on “brain charts for the human lifespan”

    * Systematic review from 2010 on interventions for cognitive decline

    * 2019 meta-analysis of “real-world” intervention studies

    * Remarkably biased US politics interview about Biden and Trump and their respective mental capacities

    Credits

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

    Mea Culpa 3 Mar 01, 2024
    Show notes

    Mistakes were made. By us. In this Mea Culpa episode we discuss several of them, big and small, from multiple previous episodes.

    If you’ve noticed us make a mistake on The Studies Show, please do get in touch on thestudiesshowpod@substack.com, and we’ll include it in a future Mea Culpa!

    Show notes

    * Eiko Fried’s research on the definition of depression (we’ll do a whole episode on this!)

    * The new BMJ meta-analysis on exercise and depression that came out literally one day after we discussed that topic on the show

    * Mark Pack’s book on the uses and abuses of opinion polling

    Credits

    The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sciencefictionspod.substack.com/subscribe

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