SA For FAs

Best Practices: Handling Speculation Demand Among Younger Clients Jun 11, 2021

Guest podcaster Jason Kirsch, CFP(R) discusses increasing demand for speculation among his younger clients.
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The Asset Allocator: DIY Disasters Are Avoidable Jun 01, 2021

The huge and rapid across-the-board gains of the current market make now the most relevant time to remind investors of the protective value of asset allocation. This podcast (5:46) argues that we should reduce risk and aspire to steady returns. While we cannot predict the future — indeed, because we cannot predict the future — we should plan our finances in such a way as to avoid calamitous outcomes.
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The Asset Allocator: Ron Surz On Protecting Boomers’ Portfolios From Today’s High Risk May 25, 2021

Ron Surz’s new book “Baby Boomer Investing in the Perilous Decade of the 2020s” offers guidance on protecting lifetime savings that now reside in the crossfires of financial disaster. He is making the book available for free this week, through May 28, on Amazon. In this podcast (21:34), Surz explains why he believes the 2020s are a time of heightened risk, how boomers, who are most exposed, can protect themselves from this risk, and how even those who have saved insufficiently can live a dignified retirement.
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The Asset Allocator: Intel’s Cure Precedes Its Illness May 18, 2021

Intel’s detractors criticize the company for falling behind competitors in data-center sales, for reducing buybacks and for declining profit margins. But it is when a company is down that its stock price provides an attractive entry point. This podcast (8:05) argues that Intel’s problems are fixable and that its new leadership appears to be busy fixing them now. And in the meantime, its stock sells at a modest price-to-earnings ratio of 12, a fraction of the industry average.
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The Asset Allocator: Economic Optimist Larry Siegel Doubts The Doomsayers May 11, 2021

Veteran investment research Laurence (Larry) Siegel’s response to all the doomsday stories in the daily news is his book “Fewer, Richer, Greener,” which offers a long view of the progress and economic growth our world has known, despite the proverbial bumps on the road. This podcast (20:40) challenges Siegel with a bit of the gloom and doom that we’re seeing. The financial analyst concedes that a sober view of markets is justified, but defends the view that the broader economy is progressing. In this interview and in his book, Siegel prefers to light a candle than to curse the darkness.
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The Asset Allocator: Investment Decision-Making In An ‘Everything Rally’ May 04, 2021

The Fed’s interventionist policies are the primary source of our current “everything rally,” and it is this same factor that will eventually upend it. This podcast (7:50) argues that discounted cash flows and other tools of fundamental analysis are compromised when the so-called risk-free rate of money has been openly distorted for so long, and why other factors are worthy of consideration. It also suggests that investors always be prepared for risk-off scenarios.
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The Asset Allocator: Baker Hughes Capturing The Carbon-Capture Opportunity Apr 27, 2021

At a time when oil majors are facing increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, a key question for investors concerns not which future technologies will prevail but who is helping these companies get rid of their methane right now. This podcast (6:40) argues that Baker Hughes’s solutions are performing right now in an area of rising regulatory scrutiny and hence growing market importance.
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The Asset Allocator: Ambev - A Major Brewery, Excellent Value Apr 20, 2021

Ambev (ABEV) operates in a country reeling under pandemic, but Brazilians continue to drink beer, revenue is growing and investor fear of Brazil will eventually subside as a commodity boom lifts its currency. This podcast (7:28) argues that Ambev is already increasing revenue while cyclical factors should help it cut costs, fueling a renewed look by investors at an emerging-markets company with a popular product and solid customer base.
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The Asset Allocator: A Peaceful Portfolio Apr 13, 2021

I have no regrets about missing out on a stock on my watchlist that moved up 700 percent this past year, but feel more regret for a value stock I failed to snatch before it moved up 25 percent. This podcast (6:21) argues that past experience, which in my case has shown that the market ultimately recognizes value, encourages me to hold cash while searching for value stocks with long runways, enabling me to enjoy the tranquility of a portfolio requiring just mild supervision.
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The Asset Allocator: Prediction Is Fiction Apr 06, 2021

The contemporary prophet Harry Dent Jr. says the stock market will collapse this month. The financial newsletter writer even added that he will quit his job if he is wrong. This podcast (6:21) warns that even the most brilliant economic sages – like the great American economist Irving Fisher – falter when they make predictions, because their vast knowledge does not endow them with this ability. Hoping to cure investors of their innate credulity, I summon the story of the Witch of Endor, which memorably illustrates the fraudulence of acts of divination.
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The Asset Allocator: MMT - Neither Modern Nor Monetary Nor A Theory Mar 30, 2021

From Ancient Rome to Argentina under Peron to the U.S. over the past two decades, extreme spending unmoored to tax revenue has a hoary history ill befitting the title “Modern” Monetary Theory. This podcast (7:42) argues that MMT is not a theory awaiting adoption but rather a description of the bipartisan policy of the United States for some time now, though never more so than under its current “go big” moniker. But will “go big” become “go bankrupt?”
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The Asset Allocator: International Real Estate And Commodities At A Reasonable Price Mar 23, 2021

The Argentine conglomerate Cresud lies at the intersection of real estate and commodities, sectors that tend to do well in periods of changing inflation expectations, and its P/E is just 5. This podcast (7:47) explores why the stock seems to be especially well positioned to thrive in the current period, while raising questions about management and deeper concerns about the political and economic environment that weighs down Argentina.
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The Asset Allocator: Trepidation About Inflation Mar 16, 2021

Government stimulus and Fed indifference are stoking an investor fear of inflation that has been dormant for decades. This podcast (6:07) looks at research by investment strategist Michael Crook indicating that a global-equity portfolio may offer the most protection against inflation. It also contains surprising findings about gold’s relationship to price changes and interest rates.
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The Asset Allocator: Know Who You’re Up Against Mar 09, 2021

The lesson I take from the GameStop affair is that the stock market does not necessarily reward investment sophistication but is exquisitely responsive to investment speculation. This podcast (4:29) argues that no matter how smart you as an individual may be, your chances of success in the stock market are overwhelmingly influenced by how dumb everyone else is. To succeed in such a market, we must take a self-consciously long-term approach, as if we’re purchasing shares for our grandchildren.
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The Asset Allocator: Alternative Currencies (Podcast) Mar 02, 2021

The dollar is worth about one-twenty-sixth of its value a century ago, and loose fiscal and monetary policies portend a deepening of the trend. This podcast (8:03) looks at the few currencies that have held up well to the dollar over a decade or more, reflecting underlying monetary and fiscal discipline.
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Retirement Advisor: Inspiration For Advisors Jul 16, 2020

Financial advisor work should be regarded as a helping profession. This podcast (5:34) frames that notion via a few inspirational quotes from poets Edwin Markham and Rudyard Kipling, and Israel’s first prime minister David Ben-Gurion and anthropologist Margaret Mead.
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Retirement Advisor: Desperate For Income Jul 14, 2020

Analyst Marc Gerstein argues that senior secured loans are a safer bet than junk bonds, but even he considers them aggressive. This podcast (7:52) favors privately owned real estate as a source of income for those comfortable with that commitment, but suggests that accepting today’s low yields is a better choice than accepting a level of risk that can ruin your retirement.
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Retirement Advisor: An Untapped Network Jul 09, 2020

A new paper by David Blake of London’s Pensions Institute explains how nudges and peer-group networks further people along toward greater retirement security. This podcast (6:56) argues that instead of seeking peer-group validation, it would be far more helpful if younger people were paired with older people, a pairing financial advisors are uniquely capable of making, to everyone’s advantage.
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Retirement Advisor: Famous Last Words Jul 07, 2020

The story of America’s first celebrity economist, Irving Fisher, should cure anybody still milling about for expert predictions. This podcast (7:06) argues that investors, instead of spinning their heads listening to other people’s predictions, would do well to secure for themselves predictable income.
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Retirement Advisor: Don’t Fear Retirement Jul 02, 2020

The Society of Actuaries has released a report on over a dozen significant retirement risks. This podcast (8:32) suggests that investors needn’t sweat such lengthy checklists if they get the big issues right before entering retirement, and proposes a major issue people ought to concern themselves with but which nary gets a mention.
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Retirement Advisor: Public Finances And Your Retirement Location Jun 30, 2020

Warren Buffett offered some retirement advice a year ago, little noticed at the time, which is more relevant now than then. This podcast (7:24) recalls the Oracle of Omaha’s post-annual-letter CNBC interview, where Buffett advised people take appropriate due diligence on just what liabilities they’re “walking into.”
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Retirement Advisor: Some Risks Are Unaffordable Jun 25, 2020

The “The Baby Boomer Investing Show,” produced by Ron Surz and Kathy Tarochione, offers a perspective void of Wall Street sloganeering, combined with a rare financial sophistication. This podcast (8:34) considers why the lifecycle matters so much, explaining why near and new retirees shouldn’t risk what they cannot afford to lose.
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Retirement Advisor: How MassMutual’s First Responders Handled The Crisis Jun 23, 2020

MassMutual’s Bob Carroll offers a front-row view of his firm’s response to the coronavirus crisis, with regard to retirement savers and advisors managing workplace plans. In the interview (20:32), Carroll shares a touching story of how the crisis brought competing advisors together to help their community.
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Retirement Advisor: More Important Than ‘Time In The Market’ Jun 19, 2020

Investors need to step up and do the hard work of saving their own capital for retirement. This podcast (6:06) suggests that the calendar, that is to say the passage of time, is a less reliable guide to success than human effort and accomplishment.
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Retirement Advisor: Memo To Calpers – Don’t Leverage Retirement Funds Jun 16, 2020

The Financial Times reports that Calpers is seeking to juice returns through the use of leverage. This podcast (6:30) suggests a pension fund shouldn’t borrow heavily to goose up returns, especially as big institutions do not win all their bets. The conservative approach adopted by the Yale Endowment does far more to deliver returns and ensure the payment of pension benefits.
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Retirement Advisor: When Is Enough Enough? Apr 17, 2020

A slogan in retirement investing holds that investors who reach a certain level of success are free to reduce risk. This podcast (7:09) suggests that this idea merits quantitative definition and practical implementation, to ensure that future retirees do not face the same sense of impoverishment as the Class of 2020, who have seen their portfolios plunge at the time their retirement has required portfolio withdrawals.
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The Asset Allocator: An Outside Perspective Apr 15, 2020

The advantage of financial advice is the outsider’s perspective, which is the reason so many professional fields of counseling, coaching and training continue to expand. This podcast (6:02) argues that just as a prisoner cannot free himself, so too it is the outsider that can provide the discipline or the method to get the person to make progress in the area of life he or she is challenged by.
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The Asset Allocator: 3 Planning Strategies For Times Of Crisis Apr 14, 2020

Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors’ Mike Hennessy discusses Roth conversions, gifting strategies and qualified HAS funding distribution, planning strategies of particular value in 2020. This podcast (9:02) suggests there are creative planning strategies advisors can employ to help clients during these uniquely challenging times.
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Retirement Advisor: A PSA For The Financially Distracted Apr 13, 2020

A public service announcement meant to educate the public on the dangers of texting and driving reminds us that that all forms of distractedness, including financial, are dangerous.
This podcast (6:56) suggests that financial advisors have a public-service role to play when the fact that financial calamity happens to 50 percent of retirees doesn’t impact the behavior of the distracted masses fumbling their finances.
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The Asset Allocator: What Advisors Need To Know About The Mortgage Market Apr 10, 2020

Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors’ Mike Hennessy provides a big-picture view of the mortgage market’s interaction with Fed funds and the 10-year Treasury. This podcast (6:22) explains the host of factors influencing mortgage rates, including the surprising reason his own refi effort fell apart.
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The Asset Allocator: Magnifying Volatility Apr 08, 2020

Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors’ Mike Hennessy discusses a trade that lost nearly two decades of performance in March, and claimed the lives of two hedge funds. This podcast (6:36) suggests that clients holding alternative investments or structured notes are likely already exposed to complex derivative strategies, and that advisors should therefore know about the workings of trades like variance swaps that can magnify an already volatile environment.
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The Asset Allocator: A Guide To Reality (Podcast) Apr 07, 2020

Seeking Alpha contributor Jim Sloan’s article, “’A Little Ice Age’ Is Upon Us,” is the guide investors need to the reality of our new era. This podcast (8:15) concurs with Sloan that there is a future in stock-market investing, but investors need to take a different approach to decision making. Investing has returned to becoming a long-term proposition, where due diligence matters, where top-line growth without corporate window-dressing returns to its former importance.
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Retirement Advisor: When Aggressive Is Excessive Apr 06, 2020

An investing culture geared toward aggressive stock allocation fails to consider the risk of insolvency that spikes precisely at times such as the present. This podcast (6:20) suggests that retirement investors make stability as important a goal as growth to correct this common and fundamental problem.
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The Asset Allocator: A Time For Leadership Apr 03, 2020

With job losses shattering records in the wake of the coronavirus, an obvious question advisors are thinking about is: ‘What about mine?’ This podcast (6:45) suggests that now is a time that financial advisors can have a greater impact than ever before - by learning, teaching and leading. Helping people see that they have a financial future is what will make advisors’ own futures viable.
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The Asset Allocator: A 3-Step Path To Recovery Apr 02, 2020

The path to recovery consists primarily of these three things: the success of restrictions that slow the progress of the coronavirus; government action to economically sustain businesses and households; and renewed employment that will set a pace for household spending. This podcast (6:57) argues that the lengthy and painful process imposed by today’s economic crisis will have the effective of turning “investors” into real investors, who buy for the long-term, knowing what they’re buying and why, and what they’re avoiding and why.
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Retirement Advisor: A Teachable Moment Apr 01, 2020

There’s no time like a downturn to revisit “sequence of returns” risk, which holds that investment performance is dependent on returns the market generates at the point of retirement. This podcast (6:56) suggests there are unpredictable occasions like the present market crisis, where anything less than a 100 percent assurance that retirees’ expenses are covered, would be calamitous.
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Retirement Advisor: Subject To Interpretation Mar 31, 2020

A newly minted carona-retiree laments the harsh impact on his family, finances and work prospects. Looked at differently though, we can see that he’s actually doing great. This podcast (6:56) suggests that new retirees are naturally wracked with anxiety over this big life change and that how well one does in retirement is highly subject to interpretation.
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The Asset Allocator: The Pressure Has Been Building Mar 30, 2020

The huge run-up in debt, Federal Reserve activism and a trend towards economic nationalism in the last decade may be the factors that most effect the current one, with the coronavirus pandemic merely triggering the shift. This podcast (8:42) suggests that a squeeze on consumer staples and agricultural commodities could trigger inflation, and a surge in inflation could prevent the Fed from easing financial conditions, which could trigger a debt crisis.
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The Asset Allocator: Coping With The Crisis Mar 27, 2020

This crisis is different from others in its details, but this we can say from a historical perspective: The doom people have dreaded has never materialized. We’ve always moved on. This podcast (8:12) suggests that what makes market and economic crises so harsh is that they activate fight-or-flight responses, but in scenarios where we cannot fight and have nowhere to flee. It is precisely for this reason that we must distinguish between factors we have influence over versus things that are beyond our control.
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Retirement Advisor: The 8% Rule Mar 20, 2020

Five years after the enactment of major retirement reform in the UK, the Association of British Insurers presents an evaluation. This podcast (7:05) notes that the reforms were intended to promote “pension freedom,” but the report is now pushing for the use of financial advice to keep people from misusing that freedom.
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The Asset Allocator: Mayport’s Adam Grossman On Financial Advice In Exciting Times Mar 19, 2020

Mayport Wealth Management’s Adam Grossman offers an anatomy of the type of client reactions he’s seeing in the current market meltdown, along with analysis of value in the muni bond market and an incremental approach to stock-buying. In this podcast interview (17:53), the Boston-based advisor also offers insight into investment rules of thumb, his approach to helping clients clarify goals and his thoughts on correcting America’s dearth of retirement savings.
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Retirement Advisor: A More Ideal Retirement Mar 18, 2020

In research on the end-of-life regrets of elderly Americans, the trip they did not take was one of the highest-ranked items. This podcast (5:34) suggests the extra time in quarantine with those closest to us can guide us to how we can achieve a more ideal retirement, one that more precisely defines which pursuits generate the greatest “happiness” returns.
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The Asset Allocator: Wrong For Too Long Mar 17, 2020

I recall an incident where a senior analyst at a major investment research firm was “right” about the Fed – and took a maximalist position at least eight years too early in a career-ending move. This podcast (6:33) suggests investors determine their central tendency – towards fear or greed – and balance against it via asset allocation.
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Retirement Advisor: Coronavirus Considerations Mar 16, 2020

CNBC ran an article a week ago arguing that the coronavirus should make people rethink the idea of retiring abroad based on the quality of overseas healthcare and the inability to get Medicare coverage. This podcast (6:31) suggests these two arguments are fairly easy to overcome, but that the true coronavirus critique of retirement abroad is that in the social distancing caused by this pandemic, many a family are drawing closer than ever before, something that international borders would block.
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The Asset Allocator: Do You Believe In Yesterday? Mar 13, 2020

The Beatles’ classic ballad “Yesterday” offers some perspective on today’s falling markets. This podcast (6:08) takes comfort in the Beatles’ hint that the troubles that once seemed so far away only look as though they’re here to stay, and offers further thoughts about the British band’s strange notion that “yesterday came suddenly.”
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Retirement Advisor: Countercultural Cash Mar 12, 2020

A novel piece of financial research put out by the Asian Development Bank seeks an explanation for an unexpected growing global demand for cash. The paper does not discuss retirement per se, but inspired thoughts of an advantageous approach for retirement savers. This podcast (6:41) argues that use of old-fashioned cash could discourage spending, serve as a budgetary monitoring tool and facilitate securities purchases at times like the present when stocks are falling.
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The Asset Allocator: At What Price Do You Get In? Mar 10, 2020

The implicit timeline for most stock-market trades and most stock-market analysis is short-term, yet most investors’ personal timelines are long-term. A lot of stock-market analysis will therefore fail to satisfy investors’ personal questions. This podcast (6:22) suggests investors not overthink things. Accumulators of capital should buy. The current market crisis may well be the event whose importance to our future wealth we did not fully appreciate as it occurred.
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Retirement Advisor: Unleashing Your Inner 50-Year-Old Mar 09, 2020

What would rekindle the aggressiveness of a 50-year-old in a 65-year-old investor? Ironically, adopting what is thought to be a highly conservative approach: annuitizing a portion of the portfolio. This podcast (6:50) argues that the “smell of death” consumers detect in annuities is really a function of feeling like they can never again take risk; yet a partial annuitization strategy can actually increase capacity to take risk.
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The Asset Allocator: Keep Your Head When All About You Are Losing Theirs Mar 06, 2020

If you’re an advisor getting lots of panicky phone calls or text messages, what should the approach to this quasi-gladiatorial contest between bulls and bears be? This podcast (6:22) suggests that Rudyard Kipling’s classic poem “If” provides the best advisor job-description at a time like this: “If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs and blaming it on you...” Indeed, a key benefit of employing a financial advisor is to place an intermediary between the assets we want to protect and increase – and our itchy fingers reaching for the trade button.
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Retirement Advisor: Where Have The Late Boomers’ Retirement Gone? Mar 05, 2020

The Center for Retirement Research reports a little-known demographic difficulty: the significant drop in 401(k) and IRA assets for “late boomers,” aged 55 to 65, beginning with the Great Recession. This podcast (6:49) explains the report’s findings and the researchers’ tentative conclusions, and adds some possible lines of further research inquiry. Overall, the unexpectedly sharp fall in retirement wealth for this cohort should strengthen our motivation to shift assets towards our future needs.
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The Asset Allocator: Dalbar Rethinks Asset Allocation Mar 04, 2020

New Dalbar research takes a look at asset protection strategies through the prism of opportunity cost, with a view toward lowering investors’ hedging costs or even increasing their total returns. This podcast (8:10) suggests that Dalbar’s alternative allocation findings are quite helpful, so long as advisors do the appropriate due diligence for their clients, but also proposes another strategy for Dalbar’s quants to test empirically.
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Retirement Advisor: Bad News, Good Guidance Mar 03, 2020

Roll Call reports that the Teamster’s largest fund is headed toward insolvency, and the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation fund that serves as its backstop is about four years from depletion. CNBC reports a closed Catholic hospital’s nearly 700 former employees may wind up with nothing from its insolvent pension. This podcast (6:51) suggests that people can survive portfolio depletion more easily than the drying up of lifetime income, and that advisors’ income plans must therefore specify how much their clients should save, what they can spend and when they can retire.
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The Asset Allocator: Comfort Stocks Feb 28, 2020

The Wall Street Journal notes that investors have grouped around consumer staples amidst the big sell-off, for fear of an economic downturn. This podcast (7:00) suggests tweaking the consumer staples category, first to “sin” stocks, then to “comfort” stocks, to accent the more robustly selling products and services during downturns.
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Retirement Advisor: Come On The Amazing Journey Feb 27, 2020

The retirement journey that people dream of is actually a sort of journey, one which they burden by overpacking. This podcast (5:27) suggests that it behooves investors to think about what they will “pack” for that retirement journey long before they’re going to take it; doing so may help frame decisions as to what they need today versus what they will need in retirement.
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The Asset Allocator: Bad News Is The Best Time To Buy Feb 26, 2020

We lack complete clarity about the coronavirus situation, but from an abstract investment point of view, we can say that embracing volatility is generally the path to increasing returns. This podcast (6:20) suggests investors discriminate between deservedly and undeservedly punished stocks in the indiscriminate market plunge, with the understanding that bad news is generally the best time to buy.
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Retirement Advisor: 4 Tropes Clients Get Stuck On Feb 25, 2020

The weekly blog of Rick Kahler, a well known financial planner with a national reputation, turns up with four solid ideas to counter common investor mistakes. This podcast (6:20) suggests that Kahler’s four decades of experience speaking with flesh-and-blood clients sounds more real, and is thus more persuasive, than a lot of the trendy behavioral finance research out there.
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The Asset Allocator: Between A Rock And A Hard Place Feb 24, 2020

One of the surprises on Blackstone Group’s Byron Wien’s annual “Ten Surprises” list was that an oil price shock would send West Texas Intermediate Crude to over $70 a barrel. At about the same time, BlackRock announced its big move away from fossil fuels. Their positions are closer than they seem. This podcast (7:01) argues that energy companies, which today reside in the bargain basement, may be worthwhile investments, from a value-perspective if not values perspective (leaving it to listeners to determine the moral path of their portfolios).
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Retirement Advisor: Rob Isbitts On ‘Tapping The Brakes’ Before Retirement Feb 21, 2020

Financial advisor Rob Isbitts of Sungarden Investment Management, based in Weston, Florida, defines his style as “aggressive capital preservation.” In this podcast (19:33), the veteran advisor, and publisher of advisor site TheHedgedInvestor.com, keeps the focus on remaining humble, which he characterizes as balancing reward and risk at all times.
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The Asset Allocator: The Cost Of Criminalizing Innovation Feb 20, 2020

The main public claims against Michael Milken back in 1990 are today mainstream and widely understood as beneficial, whereas the technicalities that sent him to prison and banned him from the financial industry remain as opaque today as then. This podcast (8:01) argues that criminalizing innovation not only took a financial genius out of commission, but sent a signal to other would-be innovators not to be overly creative. It may even have reduced economic growth and cost you your job.
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Retirement Advisor: Little Leak Leads To Large Losses Feb 19, 2020

Most Americans do not have emergency funds, a seemingly small oversight that likely has very large repercussions. This podcast (6:11) argues that the absence of such funds lies at the root of a hazard that reduces retirement savings by about a fifth, a “leakage” that amounted to $69 trillion in a year, in one recent U.S. government study.
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The Asset Allocator: An Election-Year Market Feb 18, 2020

Presidential election years tend to be strong for markets, the incumbent has shown great interest in the stock market’s progress and the Fed seems supportive. This podcast (6:33), suggests that the biggest apparent risk right now is the coronavirus, which will surely adversely affect one if not two quarters of global GDP. And yet that delay in the resumption of economic growth could lead to a big pop in consumer spending, bolstering the economy in 2020, barring unexpected exogenous shocks.
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Retirement Advisor: Paying For Your Parents’ Retirement Feb 14, 2020

A new survey by AgeUp finds that people don’t know much about their parents’ finances and are worried they may have to kick in their own funds to sustain them during retirement. This podcast (6:33) takes a look at the MassMutual unit’s re-packaging of deferred income annuities as a solution for this very contemporary worry, noting that DIAs can be a more cost-effective way to guarantee income because of the long lead time for saving and fewer years to cover.
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The Asset Allocator: BBB-Rated Bonds And Other Risks You Might Not Have Thought About Feb 13, 2020

Mike Hennessy of Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors argues that, of the many risks faced by fixed-income investors, three in particular are not adequately understood. In this podcast (9:58), Hennessy shows how investment-grade bonds could quickly turn into junk in a downturn, why liquidity in the ETF market may be overpromised and how a return of inflation could force the Fed to hike rates, adversely impacting borrowers, corporations and governments.
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Retirement Advisor: Something Is Right-On In Denmark Feb 12, 2020

The World Economic Forum posted a video about what it calls “the global pensions time bomb,” noting that the already large gap between resources and retirement is rapidly accelerating. This podcast (7:48) suggests that the approach taken by Denmark is right for our times, more so than the Chilean model, and discusses other U.S. retirement-system vulnerabilities.
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The Asset Allocator: Macroeconomics And Cheese (Podcast) Feb 11, 2020

A recent Barron’s analysis makes a compelling case that The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) might be ready to exit the bargain basement, especially if it can obtain decent prices for assets it sells. This podcast (7:03) argues that of greater importance than the assets it sells is the investment it makes in the assets it keeps. A new marketing-oriented CEO and favorable timing in the macro-economy may aid in this effort.
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Retirement Advisor: Bias or Habit? Feb 10, 2020

Which cognitive bias most speaks to today’s retirement challenges? Visual Capitalist offers 50 for you. This podcast (5:06) suggests that the multiplying list of cognitive behavioral biases fail to capture the essential problems as well as Benjamin Franklin’s aphorisms, which are rooted in character issues and poetically expressed.
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The Asset Allocator: Ian Bezek Prioritizes Quality Feb 07, 2020

Independent analyst Ian Bezek of Ian’s Insider Corner explains his quality-first approach to stock selection, with Hormel being a shining example. In this podcast (19:19), the Latin America-based analyst explains why oil and natural gas aren’t going away; discusses the appeal of consumer staples stocks; and offers his perspective on the Chilean market, Latin America investing and expat retirement.
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Retirement Advisor: Realize Your Potential Feb 06, 2020

In a video interview with Les Brown, the motivational speaker make three relevant points for advisors: that negativity keeps people from progressing; that people need to step out of their comfort zones; and that people need guidance. This podcast (6:11) suggests that it is useful for advisors to adopt a professional self-image as people who see the potential of their clients, and who help them to realize that potential.
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The Asset Allocator: A Cheesy Idea Feb 05, 2020

Amidst so much market commentary offering just a nano-second of value, I was more impressed with a silly video from a California-based pizza parlor titled “What Happens When A Cordon Bleu Trained Chef Tries Shakey’s Pepperoni Pizza?” This podcast (5:31) suggests that the distance between Cordon Blue and Shakey’s really isn’t that far when less money is sloshing around, as will eventually be the case, and argues that now is the time to look to accumulate shares of the slow, steady earners that people cling to in meaner times.
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Retirement Advisor: ‘Embarrassed’ Feb 04, 2020

A 58-year-old man with no retirement savings asks a USA Today financial-advice columnist for help, noting he was embarrassed to consult with a financial planner. This podcast (6:32) suggests that many of the people advisors meet with, specifically prospective clients, are not receiving the peace-of-mind benefits enjoyed by clients who have a relationship with an advisor and a framework within which to tackle what may be the No. 1 stressor, financial stress.
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The Asset Allocator: Shale-Oil Stocks Feb 03, 2020

Two Seeking Alpha analyses of the shale-oil industry, one from Kevin Wilson and the other from Andrew Butter, provide much insight and yet, one of them is quite grim and the other sanguine about the opportunities ahead. This podcast (7:19) suggests why it is that commodities investments that tend to long-term returns of zero are so tempting; why the success of such speculation is determined by timing, which is next to impossible to figure out; and what criteria investors should look for in a small, speculative play.
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Retirement Advisor: Where To Retire Jan 31, 2020

ElderIndex.org allows users to compare the retirement cost of living among up to four different places at a time. This podcast (6:57) suggests that a change in location is an important tool in the advisor’s retirement-planning tool kit since housing and health costs vary greatly from place to place, and notes the case of a couple whose move reduced costs by about 25 percent.
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The Asset Allocator: A Bigger Threat Than The Coronavirus Jan 30, 2020

As coronavirus fears dissipate, a massive biological calamity taking place right now has gotten next to no attention: the worst locust swarms in 70 years. This podcast (5:00) argues that an extraordinary behavioral quirk in the species known as schistocerca gregaria should be duly noted by investors because of a parallel phenomenon found in “mercator gregaria,” i.e., investors whose behavior changes from harmless to destructive overnight. We saw an example of that this week, and it’s something investors need to proactively defend against.
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Retirement Advisor: The Deceptive Certainty Of Retirement Calculators Jan 29, 2020

Seeking Alpha contributor Ronald Surz’s article on the SECURE Act argues that it will encourage savings; it will encourage misuse of financial calculators; and that these calculators will not model risk properly. This podcast (5:23) suggests that asset managers’ robo-retirement-income tools are brilliant – from a marketing point of view – but are woefully inadequate models on which to base a retirement income plan.
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The Asset Allocator: How To Make Decisions Jan 28, 2020

Positioning for the new year and decade is worthwhile, but not before taking a step back and establishing a framework for making good decisions. This podcast (4:38) argues that key decisions about asset allocation and whether and from whom to seek advice precede and override the matters investors generally obsess about, such as which stock to buy.
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Retirement Advisor: The Advice Advantage Jan 27, 2020

A comprehensive study by the London-based International Longevity Centre found that receivers of financial advice fared substantially better than the unadvised. This podcast (4:37) suggests that the public has a lot of clarity about the cost of advice, but is deficient in its knowledge of the value of advice, something for which comprehensive U.S. research is needed, but also something that advisors can do a better job of communicating.
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The Asset Allocator: Tendencies Reassert Themselves Jan 24, 2020

An article on Prohibition on TheConversation.com, having nothing to do with investments per se, got me thinking about markets and mean reversion. This podcast (6:00) argues that tendencies with a solid human or historical basis reassert themselves, which is why I expect we’ll yet again see oil and gas and agricultural commodities spike, though I think trends of a more fleeting nature will not mean-revert.
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Retirement Advisor: The Centenarian Club Jan 23, 2020

The Retirement Income Journal, published by Kerry Pechter, includes a report of a sobering presentation by University of Oklahoma law school professor Jon Forman, arguing that near-ideal conditions (including a 9% contribution rate) are needed to reach retirement adequacy for the approximately 10% of the population that will make it to 100. This podcast (5:53) argues that we should target a 15 percent rate of savings, since ideal conditions do not exist, and that home ownership, portfolio wealth and longevity insurance all enhance financial resilience.
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The Asset Allocator: Jonathan Clements On How Advisors Add Value Jan 22, 2020

Jonathan Clements, formerly personal finance columnist for the Wall Street Journal and now founder and editor of HumbleDollar, has long provided a voice of sanity in the money-crazed media. In this podcast (19:08), the legendary columnist addresses how financial advisors can add value to the clients they serve; tells why the paycheck is the central organizing principle of our finances; and explains how investors need to attain a level of excitement to stay on track to achieve their goals. He also shares a riveting tale of the enormous family fortune he didn’t inherit.
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Retirement Advisor: A Tale Of Two Retirements Jan 21, 2020

NPR’s Weekend Edition recounts the story of retiring Indiana state employee Bob Vollmer at age 102. In contrast, TD Ameritrade commissioned a Harris Poll survey of the American public, finding that 50 percent retired earlier than they would have liked. This podcast (5:38) argues that advisors must take into consideration the high likelihood that clients in their peak savings years may be undercut by involuntary early retirement, and also speculates on the qualities enabling a robust late retirement of the kind exemplified by Vollmer.
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The Asset Allocator: Elliott Asset Management’s Love For Hated Investments Jan 17, 2020

Mark Elliott of Elliott Asset Management in Boston is a gutsy investor whose past contrarian moves have paid off. His latest moves reflect his continuing love affair with hated investments, notably in MLPs and Puerto Rican bonds. In this podcast (23:28), Elliott explains a court appeal in which he is the lead plaintiff that he expects will reward holders of COFINA bonds. And he elaborates on his affinity for the most hated sub-sector within the most hated sector – MLPs.
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Retirement Advisor: Pitfalls Of Early Retirement Jan 16, 2020

Retirement blogger Chris Mamula, writing on MarketWatch, offered some candid reflections on the things he got wrong two years into his very early retirement. This podcast (6:55) takes advantage of the opportunity to learn from somebody else’s mistakes, and offers thoughts on the experience, preparation and timing that should factor into one’s retirement planning.
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The Asset Allocator: Sucker-Punches, Chest-Beating And Portfolio Stability Jan 15, 2020

The Collaborative Fund’s Morgan Housel, on his blogpost yesterday, called “Risk is what you don’t see,” tells the story of the punch Houdini didn’t see coming. This podcast (3:46) notes a parallel between the Houdini story and the famous inattentional blindness experiment, in which about 50% of viewers fail to see a gorilla sauntering into the middle of a basketball game. Housel’s point is the risk that matters is the one you don’t see; mine is the only way to defend against such risk is to have a system in place that maintains portfolio stability.
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Retirement Advisor: ‘Good Trades’ Jan 14, 2020

A paper on “Trends in Retirement Income Adequacy” reports that households who have “outlived their savings” is the authors’ most concerning finding. This podcast (6:10) outlines the process of avoiding this fate, acquiring income and assets by making what I call “good trades.”
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The Asset Allocator: Mark Elzweig On How To Be A Happy Advisor Jan 13, 2020

Veteran Wall Street recruiter Mark Elzweig observes that though advisors are generally well paid, many are not happy, which is ironic because their position carries unique advantages conducive to being happy. In this podcast (14:04), Elzweig, the author of a free e-book called “The Path to Success and Happiness for Financial Advisors,” explores pathways leading to fulfillment including autonomy, a sense of mastery and a sense of purpose.
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The Asset Allocator: The Trouble With Macro-Analysis Jan 10, 2020

Surveying the past decade, one could say that macro-analysis fell into two camps, one questioning the propriety of the Fed’s balance-sheet expansion, the other saying “Don’t fight the Fed.” The Fedophobes lost big and the Fedophiles won big. But who’s to say that relationship won’t reverse this decade? This podcast (5:38) argues that the problem with macro-analysis is that it’s all too often a binary affair. A better approach, exemplified by Mohamed El-Erian’s recent interview in Investment News, raises good questions, warns of potential dangers and builds in portfolio flexibility.
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Retirement Advisor: Unrealistic Expectations Jan 09, 2020

Pension protests in France and Chile are fueled in part by a feeling that retirement reality is more meager than they expected. This gap is also relevant to U.S. retirees. This podcast (5:19) suggests a way advisors can help clients better match expectations to reality to achieve a retirement they can afford.
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The Asset Allocator: As Geopolitical Tension Escalates Jan 08, 2020

Beware of pundits advising portfolio changes on the basis of the U.S. drone attack on an Iranian general. Instead, position a portfolio for growth and resilience at all times. This podcast (5:38) argues that a better approach to trying to predict the unpredictable is to own stocks and keep cash, and buy cheap and sell dear.
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Retirement Advisor: Decade Of The ‘Young-Old’ Jan 07, 2020

The Economist recently published a lead story on the so-called “young-old,” the Japanese term for workers aged 65 to 75, who the magazine expects to bolster their work participation this decade. This podcast (4:33) brings a medical anecdote to illustrate the physical and mental benefits of continued exertion, and suggests that financially secure retirees voluntarily undertake some sort of meaningful labor.
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The Asset Allocator: Process Precedes Stockpicking Jan 06, 2020

Process matters more than stock picks and stock pickers. This podcast (4:58) argues that, paradoxically, by going after attractive investment returns, investors often end up with poor investment returns. But by adhering to a process that captures investment returns, investors needn’t sweat the details.
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Retirement Advisor: When To Spend Jan 03, 2020

Australian actuaries have developed a rule-of-thumb calculation for how much retirees can spend. This podcast (5:06) discusses this intriguing formula, but assumes it wouldn’t work in the U.S. context. Nevertheless, the obsession with formulas for how much to spend, which depend on unique variables, remind us of the one constant in retirement planning everywhere, which is that the surplus one spends in retirement stems from the restraint shown pre-retirement.
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The Asset Allocator: Filtering Portfolio Ideas Jan 02, 2020

A portfolio should be tailored to the investor’s individual needs. That’s why people hire advisors, for a more objective view of their finances. This podcast (5:08) argues that advisors should build customized, resilient portfolios on the basis of broad asset classes, adding new items when they serve the client’s investment policy, restore balance and tilt the portfolio in a manner suited to client preferences.
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Retirement Advisor: Retirement Income Planning For Dummies Dec 30, 2019

A quick-and-dirty approach to guesstimating one’s retirement income would be the formula landlords use to qualify a potential tenant, which is gross income three times the rent they are seeking. This podcast (5:46) suggests this yardstick may work because people’s standard of living is related to where they live and the lifestyle of those in their milieu. With this conversation starter, the next steps are to determine a path to reach that goal via saving and investing or by paring that standard of living.
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The Asset Allocator: My Top ETF Pick For 2020 Dec 27, 2019

My top ETF choice for 2020 is the iShares MSCI Israel ETF (EIS). This podcast (7:37) explains my search for an investment that offers appreciation potential, and yet which is also defensible against the ill winds that can bring stock prices down precipitously.
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Retirement Advisor: Income Projection – An Idea Whose Time Has Come Dec 26, 2019

The Secure Act does two innovative things: It facilitates the offering of annuities in corporate retirement plans, and it requires retirement plans to project monthly income streams from savings. This podcast (4:52) suggests that if investors can see how much, or how little, their savings translate into income, they may save more. For those who don’t save more, the annuity will at least distribute what they have over their lifetime.
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The Asset Allocator: Both Stocks And Real Estate Dec 23, 2019

Wealthfront’s latest article on Seeking Alpha offers reasons to be skeptical about investment real estate. This podcast (5:54) offers a range of pros and cons about real estate for the benefit of advisors who must strive to serve as an objective source of information about every avenue of capital deployment.
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Retirement Advisor: Should Gen Z Save For A Home Or Retirement First? Dec 20, 2019

Generation Z, now graduating college, want to get ahead in life, and should learn now to steer clear from shallow media investment advice. This podcast (5:36) suggests that whether to prioritize a home or retirement depends on certain variables, but what is invariable for young people is the effective deployment of their human capital.
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The Asset Allocator: Let’s Not Forget About Commodities Dec 19, 2019

The Washington Post discusses two new scientific studies published this month in the journal Nature, which together signal the risk of a global food crisis. This podcast (4:39) argues that the possibility of a food crisis should remind us of the value of hedging a portfolio with commodities investments, which rarely fall when stocks are falling.
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Retirement Advisor: Marcia Mantell On What Women Need To Know About Social Security Dec 18, 2019

Retirement consultant Marcia Mantell is the author of the new book, “What’s the deal with Social Security for Women?” In this podcast (18:57), Mantell reviews some key Social Security claiming issues pertinent to widows, divorcees, married and single women.
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The Asset Allocator: Mapping, Rather Than Tripping Over, Your Emotions Dec 17, 2019

Neuroeconomics explains how the brain physiologically responds to stimuli and sometimes trips us up, based on the uneasy coexistence between primitive and advanced neural systems. This podcast (5:06) suggests we employ such insights to map our emotions rather than trip over them.
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Retirement Advisor: Client Hand-Holding Dec 16, 2019

Not only have people not saved enough for retirement, but they have not planned enough. The two are doubtlessly related. This podcast (5:10) suggests that client hand-holding at its best involves explaining concepts and providing a sounding board so that investors can make better-informed, and thus better, decisions.
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The Asset Allocator: An Idiosyncratic Approach To Foreign Investing Dec 13, 2019

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Retirement Advisor: Mark Mappa Maintains ‘Cash Flow Is King’ Dec 12, 2019

Mark Mappa of Mappa Wealth Management in Glenview, Ill., is a financial advisor and author of a new book called “Cash Flow is King.” In this podcast (21:00), Mappa makes a forceful distinction between clients with millions of dollars, but not enough to retire, and clients with just hundreds of thousands of dollars who will be quite comfortable.
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The Asset Allocator: A Fine Analysis From J.P. Morgan Dec 11, 2019

A 2020 investment outlook from J.P. Morgan Asset Management offers a perceptive macro-analysis. This podcast (6:03) suggests that we not look to these outlooks for their investment recommendations, but as an exercise in thinking, to deepen our understanding of markets, something this analysis succeeds at.
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Retirement Advisor: Three Unknowns Dec 10, 2019

Among the unknown variables which advisors must address through their retirement planning is the uncertainy of our mortality, the ambiguity of investment performance and the anxiety of financial pressures. This podcast (6:18) suggests that helping with these issues can enhance clients’ feeling of well-being, as evidenced by a recent study showing advised investors feeling financially secure at over twice the rate of unadvised investors.
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The Asset Allocator: The UK’s Lose-Lose Elections Dec 09, 2019

The British pound hit a 31-month high against the euro last week, presumably because the Conservatives maintain a healthy lead over Labour in this week’s elections. This podcast (5:54) highlights the reasons why investors will not come out ahead in this election, no matter the outcome.
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Retirement Advisor: Thoughts On A Visit With A 95-Year Old Dec 06, 2019

A recent visit with a 95-year-old was a reminder of the relative rarity of such encounters. This podcast (5:27) illustrates the health, investing and income implications of reaching a ripe old age, and encourages learning from the wisdom and experience of the elderly to whom we have access.
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The Asset Allocator: Chile - A Value Country ETF Dec 05, 2019

Equity analyst Ian Bezek makes a solid case that Chilean stocks (ECH) have been oversold on political fears. This podcast (6:12) agrees with Bezek’s thesis and adds that the demonstrations in Chile are reminiscent of the yellow-vest protests in France, whose start was accompanied by a decline in the stock market, which then went on to recover and reach new highs.
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Retirement Advisor: Prevailing Over Paralysis Dec 04, 2019

Many people have not even tried to save for retirement, and the reason could be that people are reluctant to start something they expect to fail at. This podcast (5:27) suggests that the despair may stem from the unknowability of the key variables in retirement planning and illustrates the sort of behavioral support that can make retirement saving feel doable.
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The Asset Allocator: Dalbar’s Investor Panic-Relief Tool Dec 03, 2019

For a quarter of a century, Dalbar has highlighted the problem of poor investor performance, fueled by return-chasing and panic selling; now it is offering a practical solution it calls I-PRT (Investor Panic Relief Tool). This podcast (7:15) explains that Dalbar’s solution is not to prepare investors ahead of time with education that doesn’t work, but rather to prepare the advisor ahead of time with a tool that could tilt the scales of the “fight or flight” reaction toward “fight.”
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Retirement Advisor: The Gift Of Gradualism Dec 02, 2019

Generally speaking, achieving retirement wealth gradually rather than quickly is normal and safer, for several reasons. This podcast (6:32) suggests that progress in investing is slow at first, but that a careful perusal of bar charts show that the farther the bar chart moves to the right, the greater the progress. Even still, there is a way, also gradual, for advisors to help clients accelerate their progress.
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The Asset Allocator: Mebane Faber - All-Time Highs Are ‘Nothing To Be Afraid Of’ Nov 29, 2019

ETF manager, author and popular investment blogger Mebane Faber covers a wide range of asset-allocation issues from buy-and-hold to global value investing. In this podcast (20:51), Faber sees asset allocation from the standpoint of market history, and insightfully addresses the difference between becoming rich and staying rich.
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Retirement Advisor: Thanksgiving For Advisors Nov 27, 2019

Thanksgiving is very much a day celebrating economic success, and as such, is something financial advisors can learn from. I would argue that their thriving when their main hope had been to survive was the source of their jubilation. This podcast (5:06) suggests that advisor’s concrete actions in the realm of wealth management over time take on an intangible quality, in which clients can enjoy wealth and financial stability as a result of the advisor’s influence over many decades.
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The Asset Allocator: Yield Vs. Safety Nov 26, 2019

Investors have heavily favored bonds over stocks this year, and among fixed-income ETFs, corporate investment-grade bonds have attracted the lion’s share of inflows. Indeed, Seeking Alpha’s bond ETFs page shows that, year to date, long-term U.S. corporate bonds have had the best performance, at 18%. This podcast (5:42) suggests however that if the objective of holding bonds is safety, the extra yield of corporate bonds, despite the substantial yield spread, is not worth the extra risk, as a result of ever poorer credit quality and inflation.
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Retirement Advisor: Harbor Crest’s Mike Hennessy On Purposeful Planning Nov 25, 2019

Mike Hennessy of Harbor Crest Wealth Advisors caters to boaters and business owners who live or work in proximity to Fort Lauderdale, “the yachting capital of the world.” In this podcast (18:52), the South Florida financial advisor “geeks out” on the quantitative side of wealth management while adding the deeper satisfaction he derives from helping retiring clients feel fulfilled.
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Retirement Advisor: Between A Lump Sum And An Annuity Nov 22, 2019

The Brookings Institution’s Retirement Security Project suggests that managed-payout funds might be the Goldilocks option between lump sums and annuities. This podcast (6:44) notes that Brookings’ policy wonks are proposing very much the sort of retirement portfolio that many financial advisors seek to put in place – a growth portfolio, a monthly paycheck, an emergency fund and longevity protection.
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The Asset Allocator: Do Your Clients Respect You? Nov 21, 2019

Sales recruiter Jonathan Sack discusses how one commands respect, an issue of obvious relevance to financial advisors who must relate to clients and prospects. This podcast (5:42) argues that advisors’ knowledge and problem-solving ability counts most in earning respect, yet advisors never get to display what they know if they haven’t first demonstrated the mode of conduct that is socially required to succeed in business.
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Retirement Advisor: Lump Sum Or Annuity? Nov 20, 2019

The standard advice to workers leaving their employment as to whether to take a lump sum or annuitize is to take the lump sum. This podcast (5:45) argues that retirees should ideally have both portfolio wealth and an income they cannot outlive, but that when a choice must be made, one should examine the decision from both investment and consumption angles.
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The Asset Allocator: Debt And The Stock Market Nov 19, 2019

MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert and Seeking Alpha contributor Jeff Miller discuss whether America’s drowning in debt will sink the stock market. This podcast (6:18) argues that while markets don’t rise or fall on debt considerations in the short-term, in the long-term high debt corrodes our self-control and diminishes our ability to make midcourse corrections. I also point out that the indebtedness process is precisely the opposite of the process financial advisors employ to build their clients’ wealth.
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The Asset Allocator: Next Big Thing Or A Sure Thing? Nov 18, 2019

Despite blockchain’s enormous potential, it is far from clear who would win, or how they would win, thus making micro-cap blockchain investing quite risky. This podcast (5:07) argues against succumbing to “hot” new areas lacking a clear path to profitability, while noting that profitability and conservative investing, issuance and accounting practices have proven reliable signals of long-term outperformance.
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Retirement Advisor: ‘Unretirement’ Nov 15, 2019

TD Ameritrade commissioned the Harris Poll to understand the rise of “unretirees,” the now majority of people who plan to continue working in a paid position after reaching retirement age. This podcast (5:53) argues that financial necessity is likely to be the key reason for this unsalutary trend, and that it is connected to the way people “benchmark,” as it were, their standard of living to that enjoyed by their peers.
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The Asset Allocator: Patience Is An Investing Virtue Nov 14, 2019

A UBS survey of 3,400 clients shows the ultra-wealthy group moving into cash, with these investors “fearing” or “bracing for” a major market sell-off. But if you look behind the headlines at their actions and views, these are not fearful but rather patient investors. This podcast (5:31) argues that patience is action based on a thoughtful consideration of investment reality – the reality that the masses buy high and sell low, such that these wealthy investors are preparing to do the opposite.
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Retirement Advisor: The Price Of Liberty Is An Advisor’s Vigilance Nov 13, 2019

Prowling the internet for free advice is no substitute for an advisor-client relationship, since life circumstances are always changing. This podcast (4:36) argues that just as the price of liberty is eternal vigilance, so too the price of financial freedom is the sort of vigilance provided by financial advisors.
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The Asset Allocator: Why Buy Negative-Yielding Bonds? Nov 12, 2019

It’s understandable why large pension funds or insurance companies would buy negative-yielding bonds, and it’s pretty clear why central banks do, but why would ordinary investors do so? This podcast (6:34) suggests that while negative-yielding bonds can pay off under certain circumstances, their zero or negative yields strengthen the case for zero- or negative yielding cash or gold which serve as effective hedges but with greater flexibility.
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Retirement Advisor: Is The Retirement Crisis Overstated? Nov 11, 2019

A new report by the Empower Institute, called “The Over-Stated Retirement Crisis,” challenges the generally dim view of Americans’ retirement readiness, citing a massive growth in retirement assets over the past several decades. This podcast (7:12) counters that a massive increase in consumer liabilities over the same period confirms there is a crisis, but argues that advisor encouragement of asset growth can compensate for today’s excess of consumer credit.
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The Asset Allocator: Why We Diversify Nov 08, 2019

Protecting against the downside is the first step in investing. This podcast (4:16) argues that advisors should encourage clients to reduce risk and aspire to steady returns as the best means of attaining long-term solvency and stability in their financial lives.
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The Asset Allocator: Allocation Or Avoidance? Nov 07, 2019

DoubleLine bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach tells Switzerland’s Finance and Economy publication that it’s time to prepare for a downturn. This podcast (4:51) credits Gundlach with some astute observations, but notes that he’s issued plenty of doomsday warnings throughout years of the market’s relentless ascent. The moral of the story is thus that we should always be prepared for a downturn – and positioned for an upturn – and not wait for portfolio-manager pronouncements.
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Retirement Advisor: Surviving And Thriving Nov 06, 2019

It takes $26 to buy what one dollar could buy in 1913. So why should retirees want dollars, which may fare even worse in the coming decades? This podcast (5:38) argues that disparaging cash as trash misses a paradox that Warren Buffett penetratingly expressed, that “in order to succeed, you must first survive.” With enough cash not just to meet their expenses but to re-risk their portfolios with new stock investments – retirees can both survive and thrive.
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The Asset Allocator: Ron DeLegge On The Character Traits of Great Investors Nov 05, 2019

ETFguide.com founder Ron DeLegge’s new book, Habits of the Investing Greats, proposes that investing success and character are intimately related. In this podcast (18:25), DeLegge makes this link explicit by suggesting how we can emulate Stanley Druckenmiller’s responsibility, Anne Scheiber’s thrift and steer clear of the disorganization that led one investor to seriously undermine his family financially. DeLegge concludes with the suggestion that advisors give their clients homework that will strengthen the traits that undergird investment success.
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Retirement Advisor: Homeownership Helps Nov 04, 2019

A new Harvard study finds that about one-third of Americans age 65 or older are being ravished by the costs of housing. This podcast (6:45) suggests that financial advisors who focus on investment securities alone are withholding the holistic view of their clients’ finances that is increasingly needed, given the trends brought out by this academic study.
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The Asset Allocator: Harry Dent’s Case For ‘The Crash Of A Lifetime’ Nov 01, 2019

Harry Dent, author of Zero Hour and editor of Economy and Markets.com, explains why he anticipates the “crash of a lifetime.” His message is that now is not a time for “just re-allocating.” In this podcast interview (26:05), Dent discusses the technological, demographic and geopolitical reasons for a crash he expects to register at no less than 70%. The next three years, he says, is a time to just “get out of the way.”
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Retirement Advisor: Navigating Disruption (Podcast) Oct 31, 2019

Harvard professor Teresa Amabile, writing in the academic journal Work, Aging and Retirement, argues that retirement research is overwhelmingly quantitative, to the detriment of the field. She calls for more qualitative research into areas such as post-retirement identity. This podcast (5:02) proposes that financial advisors have a front-row view of these issues, could break ground in the area, or become valuable resources for academic researchers.
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The Asset Allocator: Cautiously Pessimistic Oct 30, 2019

Money is fleeing to safety, economic growth is fizzling out and political tensions are always just a spark away from igniting, yet U.S. stock indexes are reaching new highs. For those with the guts to stay invested at a time like this, the logical strategy is to buy the margin of safety offered by value stocks, an approach Seeking Alpha contributor Mario Glogovic outlines in a recent article. This podcast (5:40) extols the virtues of remaining cautiously pessimistic by staying invested yet armed with lots of liquidity, in the same way that not being too greedy benefits investors in giddier times. In other words, it rejects being all-in or all-out at different phases of the market cycle.
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Retirement Advisor: Attracting Clients Oct 29, 2019

A listener recently sent me a note asking what advice I would offer a new advisor just staring out. This podcast (6:17) proposes that rookies need to address both the substance and business of financial advice. From the business perspective, advisors must let people in their target audience know that they help people like them meet the retirement challenge.
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The Asset Allocator: When To Buy Gold Oct 28, 2019

Seeking Alpha contributor Ploutos proposes an intriguing approach to timing one’s purchases of gold based on calculating “gold yield,” which cleverly adapts earnings-yield analysis to the yellow metal. This podcast (3:58) argues in favor of using gold yield as a rough guide, but cautions advisors to look out for further validation of this formulation over the coming decades.
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Retirement Advisor: Moving The Needle Oct 25, 2019

The Center for Retirement Research investigates what would improve a situation in which 50% of workers are set to have less income in retirement than during their working lives. Its study’s headline finding emphasizes the benefit of remaining in the workforce two additional years. But this podcast (4:32) highlights another finding, likely of greater interest to advisory clients, namely the Center’s finding that younger investors do see big gains from modest savings increases.
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The Asset Allocator: BeFi-Bewildered Advisors Oct 24, 2019

A recent study commissioned by Charles Schwab and conducted by Cerulli Associates aims to help financial advisors incorporate behavioral finance into their practices. This podcast (5:50) argues that while behavioral finance provides interesting research opportunities for academics, the field remains something of a nothing-burger for most clients.
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Retirement Advisor: Living In A Van Down By The River Oct 23, 2019

Chris Moody, a political journalist laid off by CNN, used the opportunity occasioned by his financial dislocation, to search for a redefined American Dream. I offer my takeaways as to the relevance of Moody’s experience to clients planning their retirements. Specifically, this podcast (5:20) argues that just as we need to allocate our clients’ investment assets properly, clients’ goal-setting requires thought about the ideal allocation of their time and the right balance as to how much wealth will really benefit them.
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The Asset Allocator: Buying When Everyone’s Selling Oct 22, 2019

Heading for the exits in a market panic is a powerful human instinct. Is there a successful model for moving forward onto the battlefield in the midst of a slaughter? Yes – that’s exactly what soldiers are trained to do. Napoleon was especially adept at keeping his army moving forward. This podcast (5:02) argues that advisors waging war against harsh markets and galvanizing dispirited clients could benefit from some Napoleonic strategizing. The first step is drawing up battle plans ahead of time.
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Retirement Advisor: Knowing Where You’re Going Oct 21, 2019

The premise of “The Millionaire Next Door” was that ordinary people could become wealthy, by spending less than they earn. Medical research suggests that financial stress is highly associated with heart attack. The common denominator of these findings is that removal of stress is beneficial. Interestingly, research shows advised investors enjoy more than twice the rate of peace of mind than the unadvised. This podcast (4:42) argues that by helping clients save and invest and by imparting a sense of knowing where we’re going, advisors play a big part in their clients’ well-being.
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The Asset Allocator: Best Advisors, Part III Oct 18, 2019

Financial advisors cannot ignore the business aspects of their profession, and should put thought into how to market themselves. This podcast (4:58) argues that the key objectives should be to become discoverable; to define one’s unique abilities; and to use the advisor’s best communication method to demonstrate how the advisor’s offering addresses the prospect’s unique pain points.
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The Asset Allocator: Best Advisors, Part II Oct 17, 2019

A best-advisor algorithm can only rank abstractions; it cannot rank real people because it can differentiate between qualitative factors like empathy or judgment. This podcast (4:41) argues best-advisor rankings are just business, and not in its best sense. Marketing often carries a negative connotation, but it’s really a neutral method that can be used positively or cynically. Every advisor should define and highlight the value of the service they offer.
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The Asset Allocator: Best Advisors, Part 1 Oct 16, 2019

The more you look into the various “Best Advisor” rankings, the less you will want to eat the sausage. This podcast (9:07) argues that this data is extremely heavily skewed toward the most “productive” advisors, meaning the ones who attract assets under management, and the other data crunched in these algorithms do not speak to “best advisors.” It would be fairer to call these rankings “America’s Wealthiest Advisors.”
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The Asset Allocator: I Love Studies Oct 15, 2019

I like studies – which in the investment domain are typically based on surveys of large numbers of people – because they provide an opportunity to avoid making common mistakes. This podcast (4:15) argues that just as doctors, with a front-row view of new medical research, were first to quit smoking, financial advisors at the forefront of investment research benefit from a commitment to remain on the cutting edge of advancements in their field.
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Retirement Advisor: The Reluctance To Spend Oct 14, 2019

Kim Blanton writing on the Squared Away retirement blog notes that the problem of retirees’ reluctance to spend affects the rich, middle-class and poor alike. This podcast (5:05) argues that the root of the so-called retirement-savings puzzle is a fundamental economic insecurity. Advisors’ job is to provide that security. We discuss the academic solution – annuities – as well as other approaches.
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The Asset Allocator: Of Market Tops And Other Entry Points Oct 11, 2019

Seeking Alpha contributor Ploutos calculates that someone who invested on the pre-global financial crisis market peak in 2007 would have more than doubled his money by staying invested until now. This is an important reminder for market timers out there. This podcast (4:49) suggests that disciplined asset allocation can enhance client outcomes, especially during the market rough patches that have the greatest positive impact on long-term investment returns.
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Retirement Advisor: Retrain Your Brain Oct 10, 2019

Hebbian theory, a neuroscientific explanation of synaptic plasticity, may offer insights for advisors seeking to protect clients against bad investing habits, such as frequent checking of stock prices or tuning into sensational financial infotainment. This podcast (5:02) suggests that people can change for the better, and advised investors can have better outcomes when their advisors educate them toward good investing habits.
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The Asset Allocator: Google Collapse? Oct 09, 2019

Daniel Colin James, a futurist and editor-in-chief of ForwardTick.com, wrote a fascinating article brazenly titled “This is How Google Will Collapse.” He offered some compelling reasons, but his timing was off. This podcast (4:56) suggests that the sense of permanence big businesses impart is illusory and that advisors, practically speaking, should ensure that client portfolios can withstand the collapse of any one stock, be it Google or Microsoft.
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Retirement Advisor: Still Working After All These Years Oct 08, 2019

Two new retirement surveys seem to be speaking to each other. One comes from Provision Living, and seeks to find out why senior citizens remain in the workforce. The second, a Harris Poll commissioned by TD Ameritrade asks Americans if they’d rather cut back on expenses now or later during retirement. This podcast (4:25) proposes that clients share these findings with their clients, and make their own experience-based contributions to the discussion.
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The Asset Allocator: Conflicting Advice Oct 07, 2019

One of the most confounding investor experiences occurs when one hears conflicting advice from really sharp analysts of the bullish and bearish persuasions. This podcast (5:53) argues that being bullish or bearish is a shallow profession. Advisors need to understand and act on behalf of client goals, beating a path toward satisfaction of those goals despite constantly shifting markets and incessantly contradictory opinions.
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Retirement Advisor: The ‘Right’ To Social Security Oct 04, 2019

Financial advisor Devin Carroll, in an article on MarketWatch, put together a list of seven Social Security myths, one of which concerns the perception that Social Security is a right. He shows that Supreme Court decisions have clarified that Social Security is not a right that is earmarked to the beneficiary. This podcast (6:06) argues that both demographics and economics make it hard to imagine how Congress will not exercise its prerogative to cut benefits by at least 25 percent by 2035.
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The Asset Allocator: The Yale Endowment’s Excellent Performance Oct 03, 2019

The media has been reporting that the Yale Endowment has been bested by its peers in the past year, but such a horserace approach completely ignores the fund’s objectives and proven track record. This podcast (5:22) suggests that the endowment’s 2020 asset-allocation targets offer an encouraging picture of its future performance, particularly its large risk-free reserves and its pronounced demotion of U.S. stocks.
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Retirement Advisor: Gen Xers Falling Behind Oct 02, 2019

A Schwab survey of its own plan participants reveals that Gen Xers, aged 39 to 54, are stretched thin, saving little but expect to require large sums for retirement. This group is also heavily indebted. This podcast (5:24) argues that a situation this drastic requires massive re-framed thinking in order to make adjustments that would otherwise seem painful be seen instead as beneficial.
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The Asset Allocator: Taking Stock Oct 01, 2019

Looking at a benchmark like the S&P 500 can lead to numerous unhappy misinterpretations, including apple to orange comparisons; distraction from personal goals; and a failure to view one’s portfolio through the prism of asset allocation. This podcast (4:36) argues that advisors who choose an asset allocation that matches their client’s goals, and look at performance over a market cycle, are extremely likely to see an on-target return, and that a client who is educated about this is a happy client.
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The Asset Allocator: Learn To Love A Low Yield Sep 30, 2019

Bond yields are low across the board, and this unappetizing menu comes at precisely the time that investors are eager to increase their allocations to fixed-income. This podcast (5:58) argues that advisors must counsel their clients to accept a straightforward investment in fixed-income, as it is, without resorting to the danger zone of risky investments masked as safe ones.
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Behind The Idea Reviews Joel Greenblatt’s ‘You Can Be A Stock Market Genius,’ Part 4 Sep 27, 2019

Seeking Alpha’s Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsman conclude their review of Joel Greenblatt’s approach to value investing. In this final installment (38:56), they discuss Greenblatt’s emphasis on investors doing their own research, borrowing ideas from other investors, and to that end, look at Greenblatt’s favorite investment books. They also hone in on Greenblatt’s core philosophy, which is that the value of investing is to give you time and options later on in life.
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The Asset Allocator: Behind The Idea Reviews Joel Greenblatt’s ‘You Can Be A Stock Market Genius,’ Part 3 Sep 26, 2019

My esteemed Seeking Alpha colleagues Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsman continue their review of Joel Greenblatt’s approach to value investing. In this third of four installments (47:21), they analyze Greenblatt’s take on bankruptcies, LEAPs, restructurings, and still 'odder' corners of the market. In particular, Greenblatt discusses when to hold and when to sell, and embraces leverage.
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Retirement Advisor: Help, I Need Somebody…Not Just Anybody Sep 25, 2019

Advisors and brokerage firms are selling all sorts of things in the name of retirement security, and some of it is concerning. In effect, they’re selling what investors want to buy, but not what they need, and it will surely cost them in the end. This podcast (5:32) argues that upholders of responsible financial advice must raise their flags for a confused investing public to see where they can get some genuine help.
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The Asset Allocator: Your True Preferences Sep 24, 2019

A ThinkAdvisor interview with Professor Shachar Kariv brings some much needed clarity to determining client desires regarding risk vs. return, today vs. tomorrow and legacy matters.This podcast (5:25) shares (and concurs with) Kariv’s view that negotiating trade-offs is key to client self-knowledge and the advisor’s knowledge of the client. I also offer my view of the most difficult of these trade-offs.
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Retirement Advisor: Count What Others Are Discounting Sep 23, 2019

Investors have lost their fear of inflation, a natural consequence of a decade of disinflation. But, this podcast (18:03) argues that advisors must protect clients during retirements that might last 30 years, which even low inflation will not leave unscathed. Moreover, there are reasons to prepare for high inflation, including high government debt whose eventual monetization could trigger hyperinflation.
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The Asset Allocator: The Fed’s Next Move Sep 20, 2019

The lack of clarity as to the Fed’s next step leaves investors flummoxed as to whether they should seek out risk or take a more defensive approach. This podcast (4:49) argues that the Fed doesn’t call all of the shots; it is tangoing with the market, and investors’ requirements for feeling secure about taking risks seem to be rising. Expect another rate cut this year, but don’t assume the Fed can forever maintain an expanding market.
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Retirement Advisor: Don’t Be A Statistic Sep 19, 2019

Ronald Surz compares aggressive vs defensive approaches to target-date funds over the past 12 years. That period’s historic bull market favored aggressive TDFs, as we’d expect, but the real news is that the defensive portfolio continued to outperform for seven years, from 2007 to 2013. This podcast (4:30) suggests that it is calamitous to measure an individual retirement on the basis of broad-based population statistics. For the real retirees who began their portfolio withdrawals during the years 2007 to 2013, a defensive approach was a lifesaver.
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The Asset Allocator: Behind The Idea Reviews "You Can Be A Stock Market Genius," Part 2 Sep 18, 2019

I thought it would be an excellent occasion to introduce you to another Seeking Alpha podcast, called Behind the Idea. My esteemed colleagues Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsmann, both super-duper-smart financial wonks, lift the hood of various investing theses every week, with wit and wisdom. This week, they’re doing you the favor of doing your summertime reading for you, reviewing Joel Greenblatt’s “You Can Be A Stock Market Genius,” which is terrific, as I am a fan of value investing
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The Asset Allocator: Behind The Idea Reviews “You Can Be A Stock Market Genius,” Part I Sep 17, 2019

Today I introduce you to another Seeking Alpha podcast, called Behind the Idea. My esteemed colleagues Mike Taylor and Daniel Shvartsmann, both super-duper-smart financial wonks, lift the hood of various investing theses every week, with wit and wisdom. This week, they’re doing you the favor of doing your summertime reading for you, reviewing Joel Greenblatt’s “You Can Be A Stock Market Genius.”
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Retirement Advisor: Aggressive vs. Conservative – A False Dichotomy Sep 16, 2019

Citing statistics showing the top 5% of Japanese savers do only slightly better than the bottom 5% of U.S. investors, AllianceBernstein suggests that excessive conservatism is the greater risk.This podcast (4:39) argues that aggressive vs. conservative is a false dichotomy, that it’s the investing process that matters. Indeed, being aggressive and conservative at the same time can help investors achieve their goals with less anguish along the way.
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The Asset Allocator: Some Cash For Potash, And Other Boring Products Sep 13, 2019

My search for investments that could stand up to a bear market continues, and has led me to Israel Chemicals (ICL), a boring but cheap conglomerate. The company reported substantial year-over-year gains at the start of this year, but its stock’s share price has fallen substantially since then. This podcast (7:55) conjectures that the market may be typecasting ICL as a potash company. Yet ICL is more profitable, more diversified and offers greater value-add than some of its peers.
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Retirement Advisor: Sometimes You Insure Sep 12, 2019

The University of Illinois astutely took out an insurance policy against a declining population of Chinese students before the U.S.-China trade war reached its current dangerous level. The unique contract it fashioned with Lloyd’s of London strikes me as akin to a disability income policy. This podcast (6:06) suggests that advisors must know what kind of insurance is essential for their clients (like a disability policy), but above all, must make sure their clients understand that their advisor is their insurance.
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The Asset Allocator: Not In The Mood To Invest Sep 11, 2019

Today’s anniversary of 9/11, and the discovery of a van loaded with gasoline under the T. Rowe Price offices earlier this week, occasions a “fire drill” of sorts. This podcast (5:24) suggests that advisors will eventually be faced with clients who are doubtful about the future and looking for assurances, i.e., predictions, that advisors cannot give. But what advisors can truthfully tell clients is that it’s unrealistic to live your life assuming a turn for the worse will never turn back. They can also remind clients that few people were “in the mood” to invest back in March of 2009.
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Retirement Advisor: Changed Thinking, Changed Behavior Sep 10, 2019

In periods of turbulence, like Q4 of last year, did your clients despair or did they remain calm? Achieving the latter should be a benchmark for being an effective advisor. This podcast (3:55) argues that client education and behaviorally sensitive wealth management can change a vicious cycle into a virtuous one.
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The Asset Allocator: Are Index Funds Really Like Subprime CDOs? Sep 09, 2019

Financial Advisor magazine published an interview with “Big Short” hero Michael Burry, who made a fortune shorting collateralized debt obligations. Today’s index funds remind Burry of yesterday’s CDOs. In contrast, he likes Japanese small-caps. This podcast (5:13) argues that exiting investment theses from famous investors require extra scrutiny. We find reason to be wary of both of his theses. But even if they have some merit, big shorts and exotic investments are suited to money managers like Burry, not to advisors managing the assets of ordinary investors.
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Retirement Advisor: How UBS’s Michael Crook Keeps Clients Coasting Toward Retirement In Choppy Markets Sep 06, 2019

UBS investment strategist Michael Crook has helped fashion a quasi-endowment approach for UBS clients that aims to help them achieve their goals without markets getting the better of them. In this podcast interview (25:20), he explains how UBS’s “3L” strategy – liquidity, longevity, legacy – offers a reality-based methodology for coping with market challenges on the path toward a secure retirement.
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The Asset Allocator: A Stock That Could Hold Up In A Bear Market Sep 05, 2019

I recently went shopping for an investment I thought could hold up during a bear market. This podcast (8:47) describes my adventures looking at ETFs and individual stocks, particularly my unexpected fascination with the Invesco DWA Consumer Staples Momentum ETF (PSL), but my ultimate choice of Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP).
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Retirement Advisor: Small Steps For Young Investors Sep 04, 2019

Ever wonder why financial literacy programs fall flat, when the content is so basic? What’s missing is not the intellect needed to understand debt management. This podcast (5:51) suggests that something more basic is at play. Young people need to know that they matter; that their actions, even if very small, are consequential. If they’ve gotten that one down, then they can handle retirement investing. Financial advisors are uniquely positioned to demonstrate this point.
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The Asset Allocator: Preparing For The Coming Decade Sep 03, 2019

Ray Dalio argues that the market experiences paradigm shifts that roughly conform to each new decade and whose typical dominant characteristic tends to be opposite of the decade preceding it. This podcast (7:12) outlines Dalio’s arguments, and adds my own, particularly in support of gold, in anticipation of inflation and in identifying a corner of the stock market that may offer greater stability in what could be a challenging decade for equities.
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Retirement Advisor: Convenience vs. Commitment Aug 30, 2019

Fortune dubs Schwab’s new advisory offering, consisting of robo-allocation and unlimited access to a CFP, as a Netflix-style subscription model. It’s low-priced and attracting assets, but is it the right approach? This podcast (5:27) suggests that what is primarily at issue in the choice between a low-cost subscription service and higher-cost, more customized advice is a consumer choice between convenience and commitment.
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The Asset Allocator: Dip-Buying Mexico Aug 29, 2019

Mexico appears third from last in Seeking Alpha’s list of country ETFs over the past year, above Nigeria and Pakistan, and may be ripe for an upward rotation. Mexico appears to working with the U.S. more effectively than other countries today, and while not cheap on a valuation basis, it is at about half the level of U.S. stocks. This podcast (6:39) argues that it’s fair to expect a volatile series of dips in Mexican stocks over the next year, amidst U.S. elections. A post-election reassertion of U.S.-Mexican commercial ties could make those dips buying opportunities.
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Retirement Advisor: Retirement In A Material World Aug 28, 2019

In her podcast and Forbes column, Teresa Ghilarducci discusses what she calls “retirement shame,” the blame people cast upon themselves for failing to have saved enough for retirement, offering two vivid real-life examples. This podcast (5:06) suggests that contemporary society, specifically its urbanized and materialistic setting, makes it harder to prosper economically. Clarity on this issue can help advisors re-instill the value of saving.
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The Asset Allocator: Embracing Pain (Podcast) Aug 27, 2019

The pleasure of making money is really a byproduct of seeking and achieving an investor’s portfolio objectives, but be warned: the pleasure-seekers are also the pain-fleers. This podcast (4:59) contrasts three types of investors – “growth-oriented investors,” “stagnators” and “losers.”
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Retirement Advisor: Retiring At The Worst Possible Time Aug 26, 2019

UBS’s new “Bear Market Damage Index” puts hard numbers onto a very real problem — sequence of returns in retirement. UBS postulated a bear market that took 74 months to return to its former high. This podcast (5:45) reports UBS’s calculation that a liquidity strategy keyed to this worst of worst case scenarios did far better than a 100% equity strategy. These numbers should be of interest to anyone who thinks the next bear market might be a big one, and may also suggest a longer liquidity window than most advisors budget for.
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The Asset Allocator Advisor: Thoughts On The Quest For Yield Aug 23, 2019

The quest for income is becoming as salient a concern as it was during the financial crisis of a decade ago. This podcast (5:43) looks at the example of highly sophisticated income-dependent investors – insurance companies – and finds no magical solutions to the quest for yield. We lay out approaches on two sides of the risk spectrum, and find that you must risk something to obtain a yield. There are, however, two other solutions that are sure to boost yield, if the client is willing to do the heavy lifting.
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Retirement Advisor: Paula Hogan On Safety-First Wealth Management Aug 22, 2019

Paula Hogan of Hogan Financial eschews standard industry practices focused on portfolio averages in favor of asset-liability matching aimed at ensuring client financial safety in retirement. In this podcast interview (17:28) leading advisor Paul Hogan offers insight into the workings of her own RIA practice, its demographics and the unique processes she has put into place to keep her older clients safe, as well as the challenges common to her younger clients.
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The Asset Allocator: We Are All Keynesians Now (Podcast) Aug 21, 2019

Germany’s finance minister has announced that Berlin could make 50 billion euros available for stimulus spending, following an announcement by the Bundesbank concerning recession risks. This podcast (6:06) argues that such an un-German move speaks profoundly to the near universal inhalation of the debt narcotic. When the next crisis occurs, debt will likely be deeply implicated. Advisors should therefore consider an allocation to gold, which is apt to strengthen in a financial crisis, as the only time-tested safeguard against high and rising inflation.
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Retirement Advisor: Discipline, Not Data Aug 20, 2019

BlackRock posted an interview with behavioralist Dan Ariely whose team is seeking to better represent the value of money so people can think more rationally about their financial decisions. This podcast (5:23) argues that, unless we return to a barter economy, no one will ever consume a latte and think: I just consumed 1% of a day of retirement. But perhaps we can tap into a source of motivation that really does work for most people.
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The Asset Allocator: What Now Aug 19, 2019

Falling knife or V-shaped recovery? What’s next? These are the sort of questions analysts are preoccupying themselves with, but they’re the wrong questions because their answers are inaccessible to us. This podcast (4:48) suggests that there is something advisors should be doing now, which is not based on dangerous speculation but rather on principles of portfolio management: Namely, it is time to rebalance.
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Retirement Advisor: Another Possible Reason for Taking Social Security Early Aug 16, 2019

Retirement researcher Steve Vernon wrote a three-part series in Forbes arguing that, with the exception of three small categories, it is a mistake to claim Social Security benefits early. This podcast (7:01) proposes that, conceivably, a fourth large category of pre-retirees in their 50s or early 60s, who have saved a decent amount, could be better off financially if early claiming removes them from hyper-stressful circumstances at a time of life where people often develop expensive health problems.
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The Asset Allocator: A Better Way To Reckon Risk Aug 15, 2019

The current flight from stocks to bonds represents a misunderstanding of risk, and is a poor way to invest, shredding investors’ pre-determined risk budgets. This podcast (5:14) conceptualizes risk as something that is always present. The matter could be compared to an earthquake, which is scary when it occurs, but which was no less a threat every second you dwelled atop the San Andreas Fault before the actual tremors.
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Retirement Advisor: Economic Reality Is No Barrier To Retirement Aug 14, 2019

Morgan Housel, in his latest blogpost for Collaborative Fund, posits that a young person lacks the funds with which to invest precisely when he can most benefit from compounding. This podcast (5:58) suggests four advisor implications of this current social reality: first, that all is not lost for investors who lack the cash flow at a young age; second, that contemporary economics requires vigilance regarding negative compounding; third, that people need to take maximum advantage of positive economic conditions and prepare for a poor economy ahead of time; and fourth, that accessing the miracle of compounding is facilitated by establishing a reasonable standard of living.
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Retirement Advisor: Decumulation Aug 12, 2019

For retirees who want to bequeath their portfolios, principal intact, a 4 percent withdrawal rate may be too high today, given today’s risk-free rate, adding one extra challenge on top of all the other difficulties of retirement withdrawals. This podcast (5:12) suggests that, with so many unknown variables, including date of death and future returns, an advisor’s best bet may be to structure the portfolio to allow for growth, safety and the ability to use the money without fear of depletion.
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The Asset Allocator: Portfolio Catastrophe Aug 09, 2019

I recently learned of an investor who experienced a catastrophic portfolio wipe-out in the past several months. This podcast (6:03) relates some four lessons that advisors can learn, or re-learn, internalize and use to help clients regarding the distinction between gambling and investing; between diversified vs. concentrated risk; the difficulty of analyzing investments; and the hazards of data. We conclude that advisors can act as a restraint on investors who, left alone, can and do end up harming themselves.
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Retirement Advisor: Make Large Goals Achievable Aug 08, 2019

A scholarly paper suggests that reframing a daunting task into smaller bite-size pieces is a great way to begin a large undertaking, though not the optimal way to complete it. This podcast (6:49) offers four ways advisors can engage investors on the daunting task of retirement investing, something surveys show Americans do very little of. The basic conclusion is that instead of resigning oneself to inactivity, we can force our lives to head in a positive direction.
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The Asset Allocator: Dalbar’s Louis Harvey On What Drives Investors To Lose Money Aug 07, 2019

Investment consultancy Dalbar suggests that it is a mistake for advisors to assume that investors have a static risk tolerance. To the contrary, it changes constantly – on the basis of both market conditions and the client’s constantly shifting personal status. In this podcast interview (14:07), Dalbar’s Louis Harvey suggests that advisors need to constantly assess and re-assess their risk tolerance, and engage in behavioral coaching accompanying a tolerable asset allocation.
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Retirement Advisor: Prince Harry and China’s Retirement Crisis Aug 06, 2019

Britain’s Prince Harry has announced that he and his wife Meghan plan to limit to two the number of children they bring into the world, citing environmental considerations. That of course is their personal decision, but interestingly, for commoners, having multiple children has historically been what is referred to today by financial advisors as a retirement plan. This podcast (5:26) relates that a Prince Harry-style social experiment has upended Chinese society on a massive scale, where children remain an important part of retirement security.
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The Asset Allocator: From Free Enterprise And Free Trade To Just ‘Free’ Aug 05, 2019

An investigation by ProPublic Illinois has found that that dozens of students are qualifying for federal, state and university needs-based aid, despite not being needy, through a sneaky maneuver. This podcast (5:46) suggests that this abuse is reminiscent of folks who transfer assets to heirs in order to qualify for Medicaid. In a way, last week’s Fed rate cut has the feel of making an expensive item, stocks, more affordable to the already rich. From these musings come two takeaways for advisors.
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Retirement Advisor: Retirement Nightmares Aug 02, 2019

In a Morningstar podcast interview, Jonathan Clements of the HumbleDollar website, and formerly of the Wall Street Journal, expressed a dystopic view of what has become of American retirement. He maintains that 60 percent of Americans are not financially in good shape for retirement; and even among the 40 percent who are, some, like his late father, don’t have good retirement experiences. This podcast (6:30) argues this situation cries out for amelioration by America’s financial advisors, through actions to increase solvency of the 60 percent and via pilot retirements for the 40 percent in good financial shape.
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The Asset Allocator: Of Models And Marketing Aug 01, 2019

BlackRock’s Martin Small notes what is not noted enough, that time in the market and asset allocation matter most in investing.This podcast (6:33) relates some examples of adulated investors who turned out to be in the main great marketers, and draws attention to a hard-to-market investment with which many investors have actually succeeded. The moral of the story is for advisors to focus firmly on keeping their clients invested for long-term success.
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Retirement Advisor: Paralysis Hampers Pre-Retiree Planning Jul 31, 2019

The Alliance for lifetime Income has released a new survey reflecting Americans’ retirement anxieties. This podcast (6:10) argues that financial advisors should reach out to pre-retirees with an offer to help determine how much they can spend in retirement without outliving their financial resources. They must also understand, and underscore, that life expectancy is as volatile as stock market returns (something I illustrate with a personal example).
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The Asset Allocator: Victor Haghani Of Elm Partners On ‘Active Index Investing’ Jul 30, 2019

Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Partners and previously a co-founder of the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund, advocates “active index investing.” In this podcast interview (14:20), Haghani argues that marrying the low cost and efficiency of a passive indexes to a rules-based asset-allocation discipline can provide investors with the growth they need at a fraction of the cost of active investing.
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The Asset Allocator: The Difference Between Gold Miners And Plain Old Gold Jul 30, 2019

Now that gold appears to be enjoying a sustained rally, we’re starting to hear voices go one step further and advocate gold miners. This podcast (6:15) argues that gold has value as a cash equivalent, something today’s market seems to be proving as gold rises and the dollar weakens. The yellow metal can therefore stabilize a portfolio, which is the very opposite of owning gold miners, one of the most volatile sectors that exists.
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Retirement Advisor: Underfunded Jul 29, 2019

The House of Representatives last week approved a plan that would shore up multiemployer pensions serving 1.3 million blue-collar Americans, and permitting investing borrowed taxpayer money in the stock market. According to the Heritage Foundation, 96% of those enrolled in multiemployer plans are in pensions that are less than 60% funded, implying a tidal wave of insolvencies could be looming.This podcast (7:56) argues that advisors would do well to do the opposite of the current irresponsible spirit of the times. In contrast to legislation that would license investing in stocks to bail out an underfunded pension, advisors should build sound pensions that would undergird clients’ riskier ventures in stocks, secure in the knowledge that their basic needs are being met.
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Retirement Advisor: Is Trust Enough To Motivate Clients? Jul 25, 2019

A celebrated behavioral economist tells ThinkAdvisor’s Jane Wollman Rusoff that “to be willing to sacrifice something about the quality of life now for later, you need to really trust the [advisor].” This podcast (5:42) argues that, with the exception of the military, people don’t make difficult personal sacrifices based on their trust of another person. To achieve something close to that level of influence would require an advisor to personally demonstrate his commitment to the ideals he espouses.
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The Asset Allocator: Economic Outlook Jul 24, 2019

The International Monetary Fund’s economists just released their semi-annual World Economic Outlook, downgrading global growth and world trade projections. This podcast (6:11) argues that advisors managing clients’ money should probably heavily discount economists’ forecasts and market prices alike, and balance portfolios between risk-on and risk-off tendencies on a permanent basis. The IMF outlook cites numerous troubling uncertainties that could shift the direction of markets, but neither the IMF nor Goldman Sachs nor any other organization’s smartest economists know how to time these shifts.
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GlidePath Wealth Management Offers Safe Landing For New Retirees Jul 23, 2019

Ronald Surz has just started GlidePath Wealth Management with the belief that investors need advisors and advisors need better models. In this podcast interview (9:28), Surz suggests that Modern Portfolio Theory, now 65 years old, may itself be in need of retirement. His goal is to create the most prudent target-date fund in the country, one that is capable of helping investors navigate the risk zone around retirement and re-inject growth into the portfolio during their later years.
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The Asset Allocator: Factor Investing, Anyone? Jul 22, 2019

Seeking Alpha contributor Victor Haghani takes on the sacred cow of factor investing, noting the investment craze’s five-year underperformance bears watching by money managers. This podcast (5:27) sees value in cutting edge academic finance, but suggests that strategies whose validity have been established over millennia, such as diversification, should take precedence over those of more recent vintage whose findings are more ambiguous.
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Mission-Critical Lessons On Apollo 11’s 50th Anniversary Jul 19, 2019

As the moon landing was to America, so too is the giant leap of retirement readiness that occurs through the small steps of your clients. This podcast (5:53) argues that small efforts continue to appear small even at intermediate stages, but lead to mathematically demonstrable large-scale accomplishments if we persist in them.
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The Asset Allocator: Three Cheers For Expense-Ratio Wars Jul 18, 2019

Fidelity Investments has introduced five new index funds, most of them sporting expense ratios of just 5 basis points. Because advisors no longer serve as gatekeepers to products, and those products are becoming nearly free, there’s no reason for investors to turn to an advisor…but for advice. This podcast (5:26) argues that that means that advisors have never been freer to articulate their value proposition. But, at the same time, one lesson of Fidelity’s indexing campaign best not ignored is that part of an advisors’ appeal will depend on fees that seem reasonable to consumers in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
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Retirement Advisor: An Aging Clientele Jul 17, 2019

An aging society means aging clients, which creates a business concern for advisors. This difficulty actually presents an opportunity for advisors to distinguish their service to this population by acknowledging and counteracting some of the indignities of age that the elderly face. This podcast (5:44) suggests that advisors display a level of service for all of their clients that is rare and distinctive.
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The Asset Allocator: The Pitfalls and Potential Of Model Portfolios Jul 16, 2019

Asset management firms and investment research services, large and small, are increasingly offering model portfolios for advisors. Does outsourcing the portfolio undermine the advisor’s value or does it free advisors to focus on financial planning? This podcast (5:12) argues that advisors should figure out which approach will result in the best possible outcomes for clients, and make absolutely sure that they can transparently explain to the client what they are doing to add value.
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Retirement Advisor: A Social Security Supplement Jul 15, 2019

In an article in The Atlantic, law professors Ganesh Sitaraman and Anne Alstott propose an intriguing fix to America’s retirement crisis, which sort of nudges workers into saving more without imposing costs on business or government, hence lowering political resistance.This podcast (5:28) suggests that the two law professors’ idea makes for an excellent start toward solving a retirement problem that is only growing. Once in place, it would be desirable for the government to take steps that would incentivize further saving.
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The Asset Allocator Advisor: What Millionaires and Millennials Have In Common Jul 12, 2019

An organization that mines the investment wisdom of millionaires reveals that they are not immune from the common misunderstandings about investing. At the same time, a separate study of millennials reflects an honest appraisal of that group’s investment hindrances. This podcast (5:27) suggests that more than a specific educational curriculum, investment success takes a desire to succeed, and persistence, a rare quality for which an advisor can be a valuable resource.
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Retirement Advisor: Cutting Costs While Raising Your Standard Of Living Jul 11, 2019

Edd and Cynthia Staton writing on Next Avenue tell the story of how moving from Las Vegas to Cuenca, Ecuador has enabled them to live an upscale lifestyle on a Social Security budget of less than $2,000. But for Americans not keen on uprooting themselves, there are countless ways to improve one’s standard of living without leaving the U.S. This podcast (6:38) suggests that an advisor who fails to explore both portfolio growth and expense reduction can’t get a sense of the client’s true preferences. Advisors must also give due consideration to the non-financial aspects of major life changes.
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The Asset Allocator: Look At Bonds’, Not Stocks’, Reaction To Powell’s Testimony Jul 10, 2019

Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee today, and the mood among stock traders and asset managers is glum. Morgan Stanley, for example, has cut its allocation to global equities, and cites the Fed as the key item that can make its stock call wrong.This podcast (5:32) argues that the substantially larger and more sensible bond market is a more reliable signal of confidence in the current market paradigm than the schizophrenic stock market.
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Retirement Advisor: 7 Key Points About Retirement Healthcare For FAs Jul 09, 2019

A Healthview Services whitepaper makes the case for financial advisors to incorporate healthcare into their clients’ retirement plans with seven key points. This podcast (6:23) relates Healthview Services’ view that advisors who provide their clients customized projected healthcare costs see increased retirement savings of as much as 25%. The reason is that people rank healthcare as their number one retirement concern, and a non-discretionary one at that. Making it real with personalized projections becomes a powerful motivator to save.
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The Asset Allocator: Don’t Fear The Yield Curve Jul 08, 2019

The headline of an article appearing on Slate last week screamed: “The Single Most Reliable Recession Indicator of the Past 50 Years Has Officially Started Blaring.” But should we be worried about the inverted yield curve based on a small sample size of historical events? This podcast (5:38) argues that, paradoxically, today’s low yields may signal we needn’t worry about a near-term market crisis. Rather, dramatically rising yields would signal that investors are demanding compensation for a heightened level of perceived risk.
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Retirement Advisor: Think Tank Takes On Retirement Income Jul 05, 2019

New retirement research Brookings makes some advisor-relevant points regarding how we look at longevity; how we frame lifetime income; and how we situate such income in a portfolio.This podcast (5:38) reports that public-policy-oriented academics manage to arrive at a reasonable financial strategy for advisors to consider for their retired clients: namely, a healthy component of aggressive investments supplemented by, and made possible by, a guaranteed income component.
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The Asset Allocator: Longest Expansion On Record – Now What? Jul 03, 2019

Economists, investment strategists and market commentators make it sound as though our portfolio moves depend on a view of U.S.-China trade talks and the like. But advisors generally understand that the key criterion is the client’s objective, be that growth, income or capital preservation. This podcast (5:05) argues that, because of the economy’s perplexing twists and turns, most investors benefit from tilting in one direction, but hedging in another.
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Introducing Let's Talk ETFs: 'Aha' ETF Moments With ExponentialETFs' Phil Bak Jul 03, 2019

On this sneak peek episode of Let’s Talk ETFs, Seeking Alpha’s newest podcast dedicated to the burgeoning ETF space, host Jonathan Liss is joined by ExponentialsETFs CEO Phil Bak, to discuss Phil’s ‘aha’ ETF moment, after which he was hooked on ETFs for good. Tune in every Wednesday starting July 10 for full-length episodes of Let’s Talk ETFs. Subscribe now to make sure you don’t miss a single episode
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Why 38% of Americans Rely on Financial Advisors Jul 02, 2019

According to a recent survey by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, 38% of Americans use a financial advisor, primarily for retirement investment recommendations, general financial planning and calculation of savings goals. But isn’t this all available free on the internet? This podcast (3:55) argues that advisors’ greatest vulnerability – the free advice on the internet – is intimately linked to their greatest strength, the personal relationship which the internet cannot duplicate.
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Cypress Financial Planning’s Evan Powers Cuts Through Active-Passive Debate Jul 01, 2019

In this podcast interview (15:13), Evan Powers, a financial advisor and principal of Cypress Financial Planning, explains his view that, with 3 million stock indexes in the world vs. just 40,000 stocks, just choosing the benchmark is 70 times more active a decision than choosing a stock. He also details where passive investments are generally superior and where a case could be made for active management. And he discusses emerging markets, REITS, comprehensive planning and where he’s currently finding value in markets.
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Retirement Advisor: The Week (June 24-28) In Review Jun 28, 2019

This week we’ve explored whether retirement investors are too conservative; what we should invest in reading; Vanguard’s assessment of its own retirement-plan investors; and whether REITs are sufficiently similar to physical real estate. This podcast (6:41) suggests that if ideas are worth considering, then they’re worth reviewing, to wedge them a bit deeper into our active awareness.
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The Asset Allocator: Of REITs And Real Estate Jun 27, 2019

A reader asks: Do REITs function in an asset allocation as physical real estate does? My answer is no: The research literature indicates a very high correlation of returns between REITs and small-cap value stocks. But this podcast (6:30) “thinks aloud” about ways to import the characteristics of physical real estate into one’s portfolio, without the hardships of being a landlord. While I see no ideal solution, I would look for low-volatilty, income-oriented value investments that play out over a long time period, as physical real estate does.
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Retirement Advisor: How America Doesn’t Save Jun 26, 2019

This podcast (5:37) suggests three takeaways from Vanguard's new 121-page “How America Saves” report: That those 65 and older have saved just $58,000; that the gap between the wealthiest and everyone else is wide; and that, though only a few are raiding their retirement accounts, they’re doing so at advanced ages. Advisors take note: People are trying to maintain a standard of living that seemed normal to them growing up, but which is unavailable currently, given their incomes and expenses.
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Retirement Advisor: Servo Wealth’s Eric Nelson Critiques Risk-Averse Investing Jun 24, 2019

Eric Nelson of Servo Wealth Management argues that retirement investors are too risk-averse. In this podcast interview (16:20), the highly opinionated advisor argues that retirement investors assume they cannot afford the risk that they might lose money in the stock market, when in reality what they cannot afford are the low returns of an overly conservative strategy.
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Retirement Advisor: A Slow And Clean Calculation Of Your Retirement Needs Jun 21, 2019

Back-of-the-envelope calculations – as discussed in yesterday’s podcast – may be good conversation starters, but it is often worthwhile to get advice and service that dot every I and cross every T. This podcast (5:12) suggests that people employ consultants because they want to get very important things right, or make sure they don’t botch those very important things. So too for consulting with financial advisors on retirement, which is usually the biggest-ticket item, financially speaking, in one’s entire life.
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Retirement Advisor: A Quick And Dirty Calculation Of Your 'Number' Jun 20, 2019

Retirement savers generally want to know what large “number” they need to fund their retirement. But people live their whole lives based on a monthly income, and it is on the basis of that small number that we can try to arrive at the bigger one. We present an oversimplified method of generating a portfolio goal from one’s income needs. This podcast (5:09) suggests that this back-of-the-envelope calculation is really just a starting place for a much more sophisticated discussion to which financial advisors can add tremendous value.
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Let’s Talk ETFs PREVIEW Jun 20, 2019

Let’s Talk ETFs is Seeking Alpha’s newest podcast. Each week, a different guest and host Jonathan Liss will take an in-depth look at a particular aspect of the rapidly evolving Exchange-Traded Fund space with a focus on how investors can best utilize ETFs to reach their investing goals. In addition, Let’s Talk ETFs will catch you up on all the most important ETF news including new fund launches and closures, top performers, and other notable ETF investing news from the previous week
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The Asset Allocator: Resilient Portfolios For Fragile Investors Jun 19, 2019

A New York Times essay published Tuesday about one man’s unexpected and untimely brush with near death illustrates and strengthens the dangers of overly aggressive asset allocations. But since, statistically, most people can expect to live long lives, we can’t invest too conservatively either. This podcast (4:32) argues that life’s humbling ambiguity requires that we simultaneously hedge our risks while facilitating long-term portfolio growth.
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The Asset Allocator: The Allocation I Recommend To My Children Jun 18, 2019

I tell my kids to aspire to an asset allocation equal-weighted among stocks, real estate and cash. This podcast (5:36) argues that you don't attain wealth without ownership of risk-based assets such as real estate and stocks. But you don't preserve that wealth from the blows that time and chance deliver without a large dose of liquidity.
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The Asset Allocator: Should Young Investors Hold 100% Equity Portfolios? Jun 17, 2019

Stocks’ higher expected returns, the fact that markets recover and stocks’ tax advantages are some of the reasons offered by proponents of a 100 percent stock portfolio, especially for those with long time horizons. This podcast (5:06) argues that while such a portfolio may be advantageous theoretically, financial advisors must remain rooted firmly in the realm of empirical experience, which is at odds with an overly aggressive investment approach.
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Retirement Advisor: Information Without Insight Jun 17, 2019

Financial advisors are all too familiar with the phone calls of angry and upset clients on days when markets take a big hit or portfolio statements show big losses. This podcast (4:49) argues that just as there is food with little or no nutritive value, so too is there information with no real insight. Advisors should preempt those calls by assuring clients they will offer them meat and potatoes, not potato chips. One way to do that would be to customize statements so as to highlight what is truly important.
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Retirement Advisor: Motivation Trumps Information Jun 14, 2019

The reason so many fail to reach goals we all share is not because of a lack of information so much as a lack of motivation. Enter financial advisors. They can take information like this, personalize it and motivate the client. This podcast (4:21) argues that financial advisors work in the realm of actualizing human potential that would otherwise remain undeveloped.
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The Asset Allocator: How To Beat An Index Fund, And Why For Most It’s Better Not To Jun 13, 2019

To beat an index fund, a sufficiently wealthy person could copy its components exactly, and harvest short-term losses against his tax bill. But this podcast (4:36) argues that for those with more ordinary portfolio sizes, it’s better not to try to beat the index fund. Fund fees have come way down over the years, and it is now possible to create a custom-tailored portfolio at a very low cost.
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The Asset Allocator: A Successful (So Far) Experiment In Active Management Jun 12, 2019

The Canada Pension Plan (don’t yawn yet) has put many a hedge fund, and even the sizzling S&P 500 index fund, to shame. This podcast (5:43) argues that if management remains as astute, and even more importantly, as diversified, then the CPP could continue to do very well. However, while earning high returns helps secure the Canadian retirement system, the fund’s management should focus on “beating” U.S. Social Security, not the S&P 500. The goal should be solvency, not hedge-fund-like performance.
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The Asset Allocator: An Underappreciated Low-Vol, High-Return Strategy Jun 11, 2019

Low-vol stocks’ 18-20% returns this year have trounced the S&P 500’s 6% returns, and have persistently outperformed the S&P 500 since 1990. In contrast to a momentum approach, low-vol stocks’ best relative returns occur during downturns and their worst relative returns during upswings. This podcast (5:09) argues that the type of person who buys a stock because it’s exciting is likely to sell it because it is disappointing, and hence funds alpha for those whose passions are not inflamed by market volatility, i.e., low-vol investors.
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Retirement Advisor: How FAs Can Fix The Retirement Crisis Jun 11, 2019

The retirement crisis, at its core, is an all-too-human succumbing to our desire for satisfaction in the present at the expense of our futures. This podcast (5:21) proposes a simple exercise that financial advisors – a profession whose value is frequently publicly questioned – have the unique ability to conduct, thereby providing tremendous value for their clients.
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The Asset Allocator: A Consequential, New Economic Policy Jun 07, 2019

Central bankers worried about inadequate inflation is new, even though it’s now over a decade old. It’s new because we’ve not yet seen how this will end. This podcast (4:49) argues that it would seem likely that stocks and real estate will continue to climb until some unexpected shift finally occurs. So it is desirable to maintain ample cash reserves, because who knows when the shift will occur.
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Retirement Advisor: Destination Retirement Jun 07, 2019

Imagine living in the desert, but without the possibility of AC; you’d need to get to a habitable area as quickly as possible. Retirement investing is akin to a journey in the desert, pre-1950. This brief podcast (4:33) argues that the delusions and imaginings of our media-saturated world blind us to the economic reality, as reported by the Fed, of American’s lack of retirement preparedness. We need to stay focused on our ultimate destination.
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The Asset Allocator: Pound Headed Toward Parity With The Dollar Jun 06, 2019

The pound’s dismally low level suggests that the UK is in financial crisis. Realize though that Brexit hasn’t occurred; it’s uncertainty over Brexit that is killing the British economy.This podcast (4:49) argues that Brexit is actually not inherently bad for the British economy; the big mistake was rather the failure to simultaneously create a low-tax, high-growth business haven along Europe’s border. Investors should expect a long-term devaluation of British assets.
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Retirement Advisor: The ‘I’M SAFE’ Checklist (Podcast) Jun 06, 2019

Like pilots, financial advisors must examine their clients’ glidepaths in pre-retirement to ensure their clients are safe for “landing.” But pilots must also assess their physical and emotional preparedness for flight, not merely technical readiness. This podcast (4:42) argues that physical and mental health make a decisive difference in the aging process. It would thus not be out of place for financial advisors to note this.
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The Asset Allocator: What’s Wrong With Momentum Investing? Jun 05, 2019

The momentum strategy has a lot of support both in academia and among traders as a generator of excess return, but will investors apply the methodology correctly over a multi-decade career? This podcast (5:19) argues that momentum investing feels like a get-rich-quick scheme based on seemingly simple trend-following when, ironically, a get-rich-slow scheme is available to all.
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Retirement Advisor: Travel The World For Next To Nothing Jun 05, 2019

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution tells the story of Joyce Lowenstein, who at age 93, earned her bachelor’s degree from Georgia State University. She said of her art history curriculum: “It took me all over the world.” And the University System of Georgia allows residents 62 and older to take courses at little or no cost. This podcast (4:13) argues that retirees who want or need to use their nest egg for ordinary living expenses can have an experience, akin to world travel, at no or low cost.
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The Asset Allocator: Don’t Dismiss Emerging Markets Jun 04, 2019

While emerging markets investors generally flee bad news, and others who remain to scout out opportunities get trampled on the way to the exits, a third approach exists to escape the overall EM trend when it is moving powerfully downward, as it is today. This brief podcast (5:05) argues that economic growth has shifted to emerging markets, but investors no longer need be trampled by clumsy investment products that group emerging markets all together.
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Retirement Advisor: Reframing Today’s ‘Crisis’ Jun 04, 2019

The retirement system in the U.S. consists of three pillars, and each is continually getting wobblier, as Roger Salus details in his most recent article on Seeking Alpha. The emerging reality seems to be that retirement is becoming a luxury that decreasing numbers will be able to afford. This brief podcast (5:12) argues that the choice has come down to enjoyment of luxuries in one’s earlier years or later ones, and offers ideas on how to view the household balance sheet and conceptualize “crisis.”
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The Asset Allocator: Does Global Diversification Still Work? Jun 03, 2019

Should investors finally throw in the towel on global diversification after the S&P 500’s trouncing of everything else for over a decade now? This brief podcast (4:11) argues that if the path to riches were knowable, one would expect the most highly trained economists to be among those who discerned it, yet they’re always wrong. Giving up on asset allocation and putting everything into the S&P 500 strikes me as actually guaranteed to become painfully wrong.
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Retirement Advisor: What They Don’t Teach In Advisor School Jun 03, 2019

Investing is not some sort of Aristotelian system that one derives from pure reason. This brief podcast (4:27) argues that an advisor can’t make the client’s money work hard for him unless he truly understands how hard the client worked for the money.
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The Asset Allocator: Deflation Protection Is Easy And Effective May 31, 2019

Deflation is the dread of the Fed, yet individuals have a clear and easy form of protection, namely, paying down debt. This brief podcast (4:05) argues that, apart from the benefits of cash as a portfolio hedge, there are other rewards for conservative debt management, including surviving a potential new round of deflation.
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Retirement Advisor: You Don’t Have To Put All Your Money To Work May 31, 2019

People have a powerful instinct people to squeeze out every drop of efficiency in their investments, but a little slack, especially before retirement, can be a good thing.This brief podcast (4:19) argues that putting your assets to work means putting them at risk; once you’ve done that adequately, there’s no shame in holding cash.
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The Asset Allocator: Commodity Spike Was Foreseeable May 30, 2019

Corn prices have jumped to a three-year high amid extreme wet weather. USDA data two months ago that suggested there was nothing to worry about today confirm that there was something to worry about. This brief podcast (3:37) argues that the key issue of concern to investors amidst this commodity spike is inflation protection. Owning commodity futures is one way to hedge this risk; those uninterested in fine-tuning their portfolios could rely on cash and gold to get them through the market’s tantrums.
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Retirement Advisor: Getting By With A Little Help From My Friends May 30, 2019

Money’s final print issue discusses real-life Golden Girls who moved in together in retirement. These ladies have applied the same efficiency to their residential lives as a tontine brings to a shared pension, sparing themselves the $8,365 average monthly cost of a nursing home. This brief podcast (4:51) explains why the Golden Girls' method of sharing retirement housing with friends is a winning strategy financially, emotionally and health-wise.
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The Asset Allocator: Japan – Opportunity Or Threat? May 29, 2019

President Trump says he expects to conclude a trade agreement with Japan in August, yet he also characterized the bilateral trade imbalance as a “security threat” and as "unbelievably large.” How do we parse these seemingly contradictory signals? This brief podcast (4:41) offers several arguments to remain upbeat about Japan, including the notion that defining the trade imbalance as a security threat is likely to mean giving Japan a pass on military security issues, which would drain the Japanese economy; also, a deal with the U.S. would strengthen Prime Minister Abe in July elections.
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Retirement Advisor: Using Today’s Changed Economics To Your Advantage May 29, 2019

A New York Times describes a remarkable new trend, confirmed by Census Bureau data, that non-wealthy Americans are fleeing what are thought to be the country's most appealing urban centers. The article doesn’t discuss retirement, but it would seem that this changed economics of daily life may have parallel implications for retirement planners. Specifically, retirees may have an opportunity to use the changed pattern of costs and benefits to their advantage.
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The Asset Allocator: Steer Clear Of Short Funds And Investment Gurus May 28, 2019

Zero Hedge has a story out on the woes of what it calls the world’s most bearish hedge fund, called Horseman Global.The fund’s manager presents an investment thesis of sorts, but I think any investor with merely ordinary sophistication can understand why they should stay clear of this or similar funds. This brief podcast (4:07) argues that history amply demonstrates that markets climb higher. A short fund denies the force of persistence in markets and sets up its investors for disaster.
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Retirement Advisor: The Commencement Message Grads Are Not Hearing May 28, 2019

Commencement speeches tend to emphasize the advantages of grads’ newfound freedom and choices, but neglect to explain how they can access those benefits. This brief podcast (4:44) argues that achieving financial independence provides such a path, and that the discipline and effort required is the sort that really anybody can achieve. We note that Oprah Winfrey framed this well in a commencement address she gave last week.
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The Asset Allocator: If Your Purpose Is Safety, Why Reach For Yield? May 27, 2019

With a risk-off flight to safety taking place, the market commentariat is trying to help investors sort out their fixed-income options. Should they focus on high yield or high credit quality? Corporate bonds or Treasuries? This brief podcast (4:16) argues that if you’re going to be allocating a portion of your wealth out of safety concerns, find something that is not at risk of big losses. That would include short-term Treasuries or I Bonds.
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Retirement Advisor: The Actuarial Tables Are Turning May 27, 2019

The Society of Actuaries has released a draft of its new mortality tables, reflecting a notable decline in the longevity of male white-collar workers.This brief podcast (5:07) argues that advisory clients are individuals, not statistics. Yet while neither the Centers for Disease Control nor the Society of Actuaries will determine which end date the advisor uses to make retirement income projections, the statistics do capture a certain demographic reality we should all take into consideration.
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Retirement Reform In The U.S., Innovation In Canada May 23, 2019

Washington is likely soon to see rare bipartisan cooperation reforming the retirement system, proof that people can behave wisely once they have exhausted the alternatives. But while U.S. reforms would improve access for large numbers of Americans outside the framework of standard workplace benefits, proposals in Canada’s 2019 budget could enhance retirees’ incomes. Specifically, the budget proposes two significant innovations for Canadian defined contribution plans: a deferred annuity option and a tontine-style risk pool.
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Why Do Retirees Avoid Spending? Interview With Professor Dan Silverman May 20, 2019

Dan Silverman, professor of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, is an authority on financial decision making; retirement healthcare; and annuitization. In this interview, Professor Silverman offers three reasons why two similarly situated people would have different financial outcomes. He offers a solution to the classic retirement-saving puzzle – the surprising phenomenon that retirees strongly avoid drawing down their wealth beyond what researchers would expect. His answer to this question also helps to resolve the so-called “annuity puzzle,” wherein consumers shun products that economic theory assumes they would embrace.
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A Bigger Risk Than The U.S.-China Dispute May 16, 2019

Investors need to keep an eye on the oil market, which has the potential to be even more disruptive than the U.S.-China trade dispute. The 20-month high in oil inventories should be bearish for oil, but prices are rising because the market weighs tension between the U.S. and Iran more than the current glut. While short-term investors should be eyeing Brent crude oil futures, in the long-term, a Middle East conflict could ratchet up the price consumers pay at the pump and damage the global economy.
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Forced Early Retirement May 13, 2019

You have heard about non-voluntary retirement, but is it something you have made provision for? According to a study of wide scope by ProPublica and The Urban Institute, it appears that somewhere close to 56% of Americans experience this unanticipated job loss after age 50. This means that years assumed to be peak-earning years could end up as years of substantially reduced earnings. Nevertheless, foreknowledge of this trend can help us safeguard our incomes and plan for contingencies.
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The Investor’s Guide To Mother’s Day May 08, 2019

If you’re a successful investor, it’s less because of the great stocks you bought than from the patience you learned from your mother. Knowing that our mothers want our success as much as we want it for ourselves can fortify investors with persistence. And it is fit that we acknowledge that our mothers endowed us with an investment whose returns flow in perpetuity.This brief podcast concludes with a suggestion for a meaningful Mother’s Day gift.
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Tariffs 2.0: Trade-War Escalation Or Negotiating Tactic? May 06, 2019

Is the president’s surprise announcement of massively higher duties on Chinese imports the start of a prolonged new trade war or a mere Trumpian negotiating tactic? If it is the latter, crashing stock markets are likely to rocket upward following the signing of a trade accord.This brief podcast suggests five reasons why Sunday’s tweet is likely to be just an extreme tactic, though the risk remains that one or both sides miscalculate how to quickly patch relations.
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Today’s Cash For Tomorrow’s Income Stream May 02, 2019

I previously commented on the dilemma of one who has too much cash and not enough risk-based investments, yet is deterred from investing because of high valuations. I suggested that buying value stocks would be logical, as it would reduce cash levels and presumably skirt the valuation problem. However, a reader wondered if an annuity purchase would address the “too much cash” problem. I explain how it actually might do so.
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Your Retirement ‘Credit Score,’ And Social Security’s Apr 29, 2019

Last week, the Alliance for Lifetime Income introduced a new online tool for assessing your retirement income readiness, akin to your credit score. Also last week, the Treasury Department issued its Social Security Trustees Reports, showing that just 16 years from now, Social Security’s funds will be insufficient to meet its obligations. The coincidence is relevant for anyone for whom Social Security will be an important part of their income in 2035 and beyond.
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Like Health, Like Wealth Apr 25, 2019

Physicians since at least Hippocrates and Galen, up to the authors of a comprehensive study published this month by the Lancet, have credited a proper diet to health outcomes. Does a proper portfolio then influence wealth outcomes? For example, the Lancet study suggests the need to allocate eating across a variety of nutrition sources and not overconcentrate. Does that sound applicable to investors?
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Why Do We Call Money ‘Bread’? Apr 22, 2019

Bread-deprived during Passover, your humble correspondent offers thoughts for investors on the connection between bread and money. Bread satiates and sustains our bodies just as money makes our world go round. Making money is the core of the struggle for our material existence, in a way surprisingly akin to the struggle to make bread. To earn money, and save it for our futures, we need to invest blood, sweat, toil and tears – in the same way we produce bread.
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The Happy Investor Apr 18, 2019

Investing can be grim. Each day’s news and analysis merely add to our list of worries. But the father of Modern Portfolio Theory, Harry Markowitz, offers a rare upbeat image of investing, through Antonio in Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice. BlackRock’s annual Global Investor Pulse survey tell a similar story.
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The Difference 20 Years Can Make Apr 15, 2019

The popular media’s image of retirement as a period of continuous partying is not reality, nor could it be. Joseph Coughlin, the head of MIT’s Age Lab, observes that today’s two-decade retirements equal about 8,000 days, or one-third of one’s adult life. That unit of time marks completely different eras in an individual’s life. Thinking about how to ideally fill the pages of the final chapter of your life’s story should be an uplifting experience.
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Boomer Retirement Preparedness And Chilean Beaches Apr 11, 2019

The ninth annual survey of boomer retirement preparedness by the Insured Retirement Institute finds that 45% of boomers have zero savings for retirement. That’s not news to most people nowadays, but I share two points I think are. The first was not included in the report, but mentioned in a press call; the second was one interesting statistic. The upshot is that some retirees have resources not reflected in the statistics and that others lacking resources are being quite rational about it. I conclude with the story of a Chilean waterside enclave to underscore the key point I believe this survey brings out.
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The Bank Of Mom And Dad Apr 08, 2019

The Bank of Mom and Dad is apparently one of the nation’s largest financial institutions, providing over a quarter of the FHA’s mortgage volume last year. The question arises as to how parents should financially structure their support: through outright gifts; via formalized loans, as guarantors or as co-borrowers. This podcast also considers the question of how much to give.
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What Can You Do About An Insecure Retirement? Apr 04, 2019

From a big-picture point of view, none of the primary sources of retirement income is working well for the public, on average, today. We look at data on private savings, employer-based plans (both defined-benefit and defined-contribution), and Social Security. Given these shaky foundations, individually and collectively, we offer a rational perspective on what nevertheless can be done to secure our financial futures.
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Has The Market Priced In The Impact Of Midwest Floods? Apr 01, 2019

A cyclone storm that has left at least 1 million acres of prime Midwestern farmland underwater has not particularly agitated traders. Live cattle futures pricing, the USDA Prospective Plantings report and other data are essentially telling us there is not much to worry about. But if NOAA is correct about above-average rain over the next two months, then it’s hard to see how farmers will be able to plant corn on time. Also, farmers stored a record amount of corn and soybeans as a result of the U.S.-China trade dispute. Those supplies have washed away.
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Protect Against Longevity Shock: An Interview With Moshe Milevsky Mar 28, 2019

York University Professor Moshe Milevsky, today’s foremost authority on retirement finance, discusses his new book, “Longevity Insurance for a Biological Age,” which provocatively asks: “What if the number of years planet earth has circled the sun with you as a passenger is the wrong metric?” Milevsky thinks chronological age is indeed a poor metric, which distorts one’s work strategy, asset allocation and everything else that in actuality keys off one’s biological age. He says a shift to biological thinking will one day make annuities as “legitimate” as life insurance now is. He recounts his rationale for purchasing a deferred income annuity and the strong negative reaction it induced in others, and explains the difference between investment and insurance, and why both are needed.
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Spring Cleaning And Your Retirement Plan Mar 25, 2019

Because market dynamism rejiggers portfolios with each new year, a little spring cleaning can ensure they hold up for the duration of your retirement. The standard advice focusing on portfolio overlap may require unneeded or unwanted portfolio surgery. Most retirees don’t need an exhausting overhaul; a simple tweak to your annual spending based on current portfolio value will do. We also offer two practical suggestions for those not yet retired, but concerned about keeping things tidy when the winter of their work years thaws.
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San Diego’s Pension Crisis, And Ours Mar 21, 2019

The City of San Diego appears to be going through a sort of retirement version of Brexit. Employees hired after the passage of Proposition B in 2012 have been receiving 401(k)-style defined contribution benefits rather than the pensions that earlier hires receive. But the California Supreme Court ruled the ballot measure illegal, and this week, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to get involved. That leaves the city and unions to reconcile a situation complicated by a 2009 agreement to reduce future benefits, meaning workers wouldn’t benefit from a reinstatement of pensions in any event. But the unions see value in guaranteed income, which is precisely the obligation the city wants to avoid.
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Start Investing When The Cost Of Failure Is Low Mar 18, 2019

U.S. investors are undersaved; financial education doesn’t have a great track record. Is there something fundamental that we’re missing? We propose there may be a natural and ideal time to start one’s investing career, and that we are missing that boat. Young people are willing to take risks at age-appropriate times. Parents and educators should capitalize on this natural process of development by encouraging their charges at the optimal time developmentally.
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‘Your Complete Guide To A Secure And Successful Retirement’ Mar 14, 2019

Larry Swedroe, a prolific writer on investing topics and Director of Research of Buckingham Strategic Wealth, discusses his latest book, “Your Complete Guide To A Secure And Successful Retirement.” Among topics discussed: the importance of retirement planning – beyond the numbers; why financing one’s post-work life is more challenging than saving and investing ahead of this life phase; the relative merits of a pot of money vs. a stream of income; Social Security, Medicare and professional financial advice.
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Flying Cars And Disruptive Innovation Mar 11, 2019

Intel’s drones chief forecasts flying cars in five years, in an interview published Sunday. That change is coming to cars seems evident by the fact that Intel plunked the not small sum of $15.3 billion for Mobileye two years ago. The trend toward self-driving vehicles will create winners and losers, impacting car companies, real estate, insurance, energy, local government and the job market.
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Race To Raise Taxes Mar 07, 2019

This is my nonpartisan take on the swelter of tax-hike proposals bubbling up today from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand and more. These politicians have their reasons for their levies, like universal child care, which they counterpose against President Trump’s tax cuts on corporations, which they argue has favored the rich. But the debate glides over the fact that these promises and policy preferences sit on top of a mountain of IOUs that politicians have been accumulating for a generation now. I go through the numbers, and implications.
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High Income, Or Stable Income, In Retirement? Mar 05, 2019

Nobel Prize winning economist Bill Sharpe has been simulating various income paths through a variety of strategies, including fixed withdrawal rates and annuity approaches. He tells Investment Advisor magazine that fixed withdrawal approaches, like the 4% rule, are inefficient because you either spend too much and go bust or spend too little and leave more to heirs than you planned. Sharpe thinks annuities increase efficiency, by letting you spend more. Noting that a period-certain annuity is like a bond ladder, he suggests that retirees can see which is cheaper, net of fees, buy that and tack a deferred annuity at the end.
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Roger Salus: A Perspective On Contemporary Economics Feb 28, 2019

Roger Salus writes what I think is some of the most clear, creative and original economic analyses on Seeking Alpha. In this brief interview, Salus helps us understand what contributes to making a country more prosperous. He also elaborates on his “two-economy world” thesis – the notion that the world’s most developed economies have become increasingly stratified between those for whom the traditional economy is working and those for whom it is not.
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Lemmings And The Crisis Of Retirement Feb 25, 2019

ING has looked at savings behavior in generally affluent countries and found grave inadequacy to be the unifying element. Half of current retirees admit to having a lower standard of living in retirement. More than half of Europeans who have not yet retired expect they’ll have to join the gig economy in order to supplement their income in retirement. More than a quarter of Europeans and Americans have no savings whatsoever. This podcast explains why a lemming-like confusion is leading majorities of affluent populations off a financial cliff.
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Make Investment Decisions You Can Live With Feb 21, 2019

In investing, it is vital to get the big things right. One way to ensure good investment decision-making is to assume that you harbor biases and probe going against your instincts. If your investing track record has been a poor one, it would be prudent to consider hiring a financial advisor. Realize that not making a decision is also a decision, and know that you cannot possibly make every decision correctly.
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Washington and Lincoln as Investors Feb 18, 2019

Both Washington and Lincoln became wealthy men. Washington stands as one of the wealthiest Americans of all time, whereas Lincoln rose far from his log-cabin origins. America has always been a good investment, but Washington got on on the ground floor, literally, as his primary investment was real estate. Lincoln achieved financial comfort, and then preserved that wealth through bonds, but his investment approach was based mainly on patriotism rather than an effort to become rich.
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Does High Debt Mean Low Growth? Feb 14, 2019

The U.S. national debt is now $22 trillion for the first time – that’s an increase of over 10% from when President Trump took office. The administration expects today’s growth will be sustained, but it didn’t work out that way for his predecessors. Reinhart and Rogoff tried to establish debt’s corrosive effect on growth, but their critics were empowered by a research slip-up on their part. I think common sense will ultimately vindicate their view.
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Financial Journalist Confessions Feb 11, 2019

Veteran Australian financial journalist named Michael Pascoe admits to having spent a quarter of a century providing daily financial market reports that were “mostly rubbish.” Now he is trying to keep investors focused on the long-term, and is finding that doing so is of less interest to readers. Pascoe is spot-on. It’s not just the financial media that are to blame; it’s also media consumers hankering to get their fix of infotainment.
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A Helpful New Direction In Retirement Research Feb 07, 2019

New research by Moshe Milevsky distinguishes between chronological age and biological age. Someone who has lived 60 years may be as fit as a 50-year-old or may be biologically equivalent to a 70-year-old. Thus, the implications for asset allocation and insurance coverage for two people both aged 60 may be very different.
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A Stock-Market Teaching Moment Feb 04, 2019

The past two months provided a rare stock-market round trip covering quite a distance in percentage terms, with 9.6% losses in December followed by 8.6% returns in January. If you were among those who sold, the reason was likely the perception that stocks were weakening since October, along with perpetual reminders that the bull market was long in the tooth. But this rationale isn’t relevant to the personal financial plan you should be following, which depends on your age, resources and goals.
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Your Portfolio In 2050 Jan 31, 2019

An analysis written for the British bank HSBC nearly a decade ago by economist Karen Ward, called “The World in 2050,” projected how the world economy would appear in 40 years. Ward thought today’s emerging markets would make up 19 of the top 30 economies in 2050, with China rising to the top spot. It seems fair to surmise that HSBC has advocated its clients increase their allocations to emerging markets. My own sense of development economics leads me to favor a selective approach to emerging markets, rather than a broad asset-class approach.
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Daniel Amerman On Social Security, Medicare and Financial Repression Jan 28, 2019

Independent analyst Daniel Amerman ,CFA thinks it naïve to expect inflation-adjusted Social Security payments in perpetuity; nor does he expect the system will go bankrupt; rather, he holds retirees will get paid – just less than before each year out. He says Medicare is not keeping up with inflation and is eating most people’s Social Security check, and higher-income recipients are effectively subsidizing lower-income recipients. This system design biases the claiming decision to no later than age 65. He warns that, because the U.S. national debt is now larger than the U.S. economy, policy makers are using “financial repression,” a policy that is injurious to retirees, to cope with debt.
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The No. 1 Retirement-Planning Problem Jan 25, 2019

To solve for spending in retirement, you need to plug in how much capital you have, what your rate of return is and how much time you have – that last item being impossible to know. Longevity tables meant to offer guidance may understate the actuarially correct figures by two to three years. How can we devise a spending plan amidst these uncertainties - plus numerous other hurdles?
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Using Apple Each Day Can Keep The Doctor Away Jan 21, 2019

With Apple having lost a third of its value since October, are investors dealing with a Silicon Valley has-been or a will-be whose shares are now attractively priced? Apple appears to be deftly pivoting from an area of slowing growth to the area that shows the highest growth potential, namely digital health.
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Jack Bogle Made Investors Money Jan 17, 2019

Jack Bogle offered the gift of strong long-term returns and the ability to enjoy them – without the stress and losses that many who come to Wall Street looking for riches end up taking away with them instead.
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Pros And Cons Of Owning Gold Jan 15, 2019

Gold’s returns over time are unimpressive – if your comparison is stocks. But that’s not really the relevant comparison, and in fact, gold can facilitate your ownership of stocks. The portfolio purpose that gold ultimately serves is as a cash equivalent that beats inflation and as a store of value when your dollars are not holding up.
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Behavioral Economist Shachar Kariv: Investors Must Know Themselves Jan 10, 2019

U.C. Berkeley behavioral economist Shachar Kariv identifies two fundamental sources of investor pain – lack of knowledge about the market and lack of self-knowledge. Successful investing requires effort to resolve these uncertainties.
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A Popular Way To Lose Money Jan 07, 2019

It’s still the beginning of a new year, and your senses will be besieged by stories such as “The Best Stock-Fund Managers of 2018.” So it’s worth recalling not just that past performance does not predict future returns – as the disclaimer usually goes - but that, statistically speaking, past positive performance is likely to presage poor future performance.
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Apple, China And A Teetering Global Economy Jan 03, 2019

Apple’s CEO Tim Cook has pinned his firm’s darkened outlook primarily on China. That one of Apple's biggest customers is in bad shape makes it clear that the U.S. has been carrying out its trade war with a sickly opponent. Knocking out that opponent removes one of the pillars of the global economy, and makes recession likelier.
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My Top Pick For 2019 Dec 31, 2018

With one cheap fund, you can own a globally diversified portfolio of low-volatility equities. Now that the market is going on sale, two such funds I have admired but not owned are becoming affordable again.
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These Are The Times That Try Investors’ Souls Dec 27, 2018

What the American revolutionary Thomas Paine wrote about a military and political crisis applies as well to a financial one. Specifically, he wrote that panics are “short” and “advantageous.” If you’ve properly prepared, you can emerge from this interval stronger than you entered it, as Colonial America emerged from its battle with Britain.
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Investors’ Last-Minute Holiday Shopping Guide Dec 24, 2018

Still scrambling to get your children, nephews or nieces something that will make a meaningful impact? Credit card, mortgage and auto loans have straight-lined over the past 15 years, while student loans have skyrocketed nearly 500%. That’s signals a “with it” gift for indebted grads. For not yet college-age kids, you can offer them a skill that will give them a genuine leg up.
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The ETF From Ipanema Dec 20, 2018

In a market that has killed every category, emerging markets have stood out for their losses. Without minimizing the high risks of this sector, is there a baby that has been thrown out with the bathwater? Brazil might be that baby. In 12 days, the country gets a new rebirth of sorts as Yair Bolsonaro assumes office with plans to push his country into an era of liberal economic reform. Brazilian stocks are cheap and an attractive ETF offers a wide representation of the country's leading companies.
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Actuary Scott Witt On Why, (Why Not) And How To Buy An Annuity Dec 17, 2018

Scott Witt is a fee-only insurance advisor who provides fiduciary advice to clients on products such as annuities and is paid on an hourly fee basis rather than through commissions. In this interview, Scott explains income annuities' potential benefits, provides a decision tree for making the selection and offers a glimpse into his own client engagements.
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Who Will Bail Out This Man? Dec 13, 2018

Janus Henderson Investors asks, “Would you lend to this man?” – with the man in question being Uncle Sam. That is a very important question, but one that is too easy to dismiss, as formulated. Ask instead, “Who will bail out this man?” and perhaps we’ll arouse greater interest. The reason is that Uncle Sam and his fraternity of ne’er-do-wells across the world will get the last laugh, or at least the last tax.
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Your Portfolio Strategy Shouldn’t Depend On The News Dec 10, 2018

Pundits are pondering whether the U.S. and China will come to terms on trade and if Theresa May will eke out a Brexit that avoids market chaos. These are interesting questions. But the real question for investors is: Have you positioned your portfolio for both profit and protection – no matter what’s going on in the news?
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Toxic News And Your Retirement Dec 06, 2018

The top three news stories spooking investors are ToXiC -- with the T for Trade, Brexit in the middle and OPEC at the end. Pundits will be telling you to sell, but investors should follow their own individual plan, not the herd. There is however one group for whom a toxic market may indeed be problematic, and that is retirees or those on the cusp of retirement. Their need for retirement income may force them to sell shares at the worst possible time toxic news topples the market.
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Singing A Song Of Angry Men Dec 03, 2018

Riots in France are said to be the worst riots that country has seen since the 1960s. In a twist on Frantz Fanon, the new wretched of the earth are apparently the non-rich native population. And yet Credit Suisse just ranked France among the top 5 wealth wealthiest countries, on the basis of median wealth, implying broad wealth distribution. Takeaways: Expect more social disruption, and a push for wealth redistribution. Investors require very wide asset diversification, including cash.
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Millennials Coping With Capitalism Nov 29, 2018

A 2016 Harvard University study showed that a majority of millennial reject capitalism. Drill down today’s CDC report about decreasing U.S. longevity, primarily because of opioid deaths, and you see that millennials have the highest proportion of such deaths, and the highest increase in suicides. Is there a connection?
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How To Prepare For A Value Rally Nov 26, 2018

Jonathan Boyar, president of Boyar’s Intrinsic Value Research, explains his investing approach at a time when market leadership may be shifting to value. If he had to pick a sector exhibiting classic value characteristics, Boyar would focus on bank stocks. He explains the undesirability of investing in energy stocks whose fortunes shift on the price of oil, and why investors could do better than to buy fallen FAANGs. Boyar instead favors stocks left out of the major indexes, and names two that he believes
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What Regulation Does Apple’s CEO Fear? Nov 19, 2018

Apple CEO Tim Cook calls new tech regulations “inevitable.” He wasn’t too specific, but it seems he had in mind the European Union’s new GDPR regs, which raise the privacy of user data to a much higher level. The impact of these new regulations is not easy to calculate – it ultimately depends on which violations are fined, and by how much. But it may well be that the easy money has already been made in Big Data.
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A Conversation With Jeff Miller Nov 15, 2018

Jeff Miller, a prominent Seeking Alpha contributor and also an investment advisor with NewArc Investments, discusses how he goes about gaining clarity about clients’ needs, goals and risk tolerance. He explains how he seeks to protect clients against downside risk, given the reality of strong loss aversion.
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Betting on Tejon Ranch Nov 12, 2018

Tejon Ranch Co. owns the largest piece of private property in the state of California, encompassing 270,000 acres. TRC has been beaten down to just north of its 52-week low because of declining revenues based on poor crop sales, weak crop yields, trade war with China and poor performing joint ventures. But its biggest promise lies in its real estate projects, whose revenues are growing slowly. This suggests that Tejon may have a lot of good news ahead of it and most of the bad news behind it.
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Is Now The Time To Buy Energy Stocks? Nov 08, 2018

Energy is the classic late-market-cycle investment that rises when growth begins to slow and stocks look expensive. What’s more, energy stocks have been subdued since 2014. The market doesn’t seem prepared for a reversal since the three largest energy producers – U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia – are reaching new production highs. A possible catalyst could be Iran, which has vowed to take revenge for U.S. sanctions. Even without geopolitical instability, the current energy supply may simply fail to ke
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Is Now The Time To Scoop Up China Stocks? Nov 05, 2018

By one estimate, progress on the Chinese trade issue could generate a 4-5% move in a single day. So do tweets about trade progress suggest now is the time to scoop up a China ETF? I suggest that the reality of America’s and China’s current roles in the global economy and one key piece of market data do not imply a lucrative China play now.
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Investors Need A Process, Not Predictions Nov 01, 2018

MarketWatch quotes the “godfather” of chart analysts forecasting a bear market. If so, why didn’t he offer us this warning before October’s wipe-out? And more to the point, what relevance do daily market movements have to each individual’s unique circumstances, goals and timelines?
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Interview with Douglas Holtz-Eakin Oct 29, 2018

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of American Action Forum and formerly a member of George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors, director of the Congressional Budget Office and chief economic advisor to John McCain’s presidential campaign, shares his thoughts on the cutting economic issues of our time, such as the impact of tax reform on U.S. growth and how the government can deescalate the rampant increase in debt.
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A Talk With Shachar Kariv On Behavioral Economics Oct 29, 2018

Shachar Kariv, a decision theorist at U.C. Berkeley and chairman of its economics department, has the unique distinction of relating behavioral economics in a fashion that is relevant to investment decision makers. In other words, it’s not just academic. In this podcast, he answers such questions as what are the key trade-offs we should consider in making investments; what kind of investor should go to a financial advisor; and who is more important – your advisor or your physician?
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Reasons To Worry About U.S.–China Trade Tension Oct 15, 2018

The U.S. administration’s increasingly tough stance on China suggests the U.S.-China dispute is rising to almost Cold War levels. De-escalation will be neither quick nor easy. Whether this was the intention or not, the hard line against Beijing gives the U.S. instant credibility to carry out tough measures on trade. That makes U.S.-China trade an issue that could prompt an immediate market reaction.
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Is The Fed ‘Going Loco’? Oct 11, 2018

President Trump responded to yesterday’s market fall with criticism of the Fed. Yet just last week, the president boasted the market had reached a record high, for which he took credit. It seems unwise for the president to intimately entangle himself with stock market performance. Rather, he, Fed chairman Powell and investors alike should concentrate on their jobs, the performance of which is not enhanced by close attention to the stock market.
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Has Facebook Become A Piggybank For Regulators? Oct 04, 2018

The fine to which Facebook is subject for last week’s cyber breach could reach $1.63 billion. The small share price decline since news of the breach suggests that investors don’t think regulators will dock the social media giant to the maximum extent. Indeed, Facebook’s quick and complete response suggests that the firm had in place the capabilities to block the hackers. The firm also had plans in place to beef up cybser-security. All in all, the facts of this case seem to warrant regulatory restraint
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What Dolphins Can Teach Us About Increasing Worker Pay Sep 20, 2018

A study out this week, from the Dolphin Research Center in the Florida Keys, that shows how dolphins learned to synchronize their behavior in order to earn more fish and social praise. Dolphins understand something that still escapes many human beings, which is that their interests are not really opposed.
Maybe dolphins could show how to put more dollars in the average worker’s paycheck to the benefit of all.
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Why Has Brexit Failed? Sep 17, 2018

Major European companies with London headquarters continue their steady march out of the UK. The Centre for European Reform estimated that the British economy has shrunk by over 2% over the past two years, costing the Exchequer $30 billion – an amount that exceeds the expected dividend that departure from the EU was supposed to yield. Brexit reflects the modern tendency to lurch toward populist goals without any realistic plan as to how to make them work.
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Watch Out For Soaring Oil Prices Sep 13, 2018

Global oil output hit a record last month, and the IEA sees continued increases in oil production. On the other hand, bond king Jeffrey Gundlach sees oil heading as high $80 or $90 a barrel. Who’s right? A story the media is paying little attention to seems to indicate that, overall, oil market risk is rising.
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Is Amazon A Bad Employer? Sep 06, 2018

Bernie Sanders has introduced the BEZOS bill meant to stop “bad employers” like Amazon. Amazon has been accused of many things – but is it fair to call it a bad employer? It’s possible that Amazon is a better-than-average employer, despite problems in the broader economy which are beyond its ken to repair. Indeed, the burden of public policy falls more on Sanders and his colleagues.
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Emerging Markets, Debt And The Next Financial Crisis Sep 04, 2018

It is not politics but economics that is pressuring emerging market currencies. The world’s bond vigilantes are concerned about EM dollar-denominated debt, which U.S. rate hikes have made more costly to service. Ten years ago this month, the smallest U.S. investment bank, Lehman Brothers, detonated a global financial crisis when it could not finance its debt. We make no specific predictions, but note that a similar dynamic could play out here: A vulnerable emerging market unable to finance its debt could
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Chicago’s Civic Senility Aug 27, 2018

Imagine Chicago going bankrupt. That frightful scenario seems all the more plausible now that the city is considering a harebrained scheme to deal with the city’s pension crisis by borrowing $10 billion on the bond market. That would roughly be akin to your owing $10,000 to somebody, whom you don’t want to pay with funds in your investment account, so you instead borrow on your credit card. The risk that you end up in even worse shape than where you started is not low.
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Rip Van Winkle Would Have Slept Through The FAANG Phenomenon Aug 23, 2018

If Rip Van Winkle fell asleep in 1900 and awoke in the year 2000, he’d probably see disappointing portfolio results. Even a simple (and correct) decision to put his money on the world’s superpower would lead to underperformance. So much of investing is out of our control. What we can control is how much we save and how widely we diversify.
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Cryptocurrencies’ Growing Pains Aug 16, 2018

The crypto market has fallen $600 billion so far this year, with the market now worth about $200 billion. That sets up the usual investor debate as to whether to board the crypto train to the promised brave new world or to steer clear of the wild ride. Cryptos’ promoters promise the moon and the stars, but bitcoin and its crypto cousins reside on planet earth and will only make it to the top through the same hard slog that the business world has always required.
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The Biggest Potential Threat To The World Economy Aug 13, 2018

Iranian naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are signaling Tehran’s threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the world’s oil passes. Iran has made this threat before, and has not carried it out, but today Tehran's back may be against the wall because its citizens have lost their fear of their rulers and the U.S. is prosecuting an economic war against the regime. Though a prolonged closure could deal a harsh and enduring setback to the global economy, the Iranians have
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Of Musk And Machiavelli Aug 09, 2018

The SEC is now investigating the veracity of Elon Musk’s claim to have secured funding to take Tesla private. I’m skeptical of Musk’s tweet because the company has not produced any proof of funding over the past 48 hours and because Tesla’s board has given the impression that the idea is far from fully developed. But the fundamental reasons for my skepticism is that Musk has abused Twitter before.
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Boycott the U.S.? Not Gonna Happen! Aug 06, 2018

A Wall Street Journal headline warns that a movement is afoot among Canadians to boycott U.S. products. On the basis of news media commentary about the trade wars, you might assume that commercial links between the U.S. and Canada are on track to shrink. To the contrary, I believe that the data one quarter and one year from now will show an expansion of trade.
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Not Even An Autocrat Can Reform Retirement Aug 02, 2018

Russians have taken to the streets this week shouting slogans such as “Putin is a thief,” “away with the tsar,” and “stop stealing our future.” Protesters are reacting to a bill in Russia’s legislature that would raise the retirement age to 65 for men and 63 for women. Given that citizens of democracies do not fear their governments – rather it is Western leaders who fear their publics – it is easier to grasp that if Putin can’t get retirement reform done, neither can Western governments
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365 Ways To Be Mistaken About The Market Jul 30, 2018

The latest weekly blogpost from mutual fund manager John Hussman warns of the quote ‘brutal consequences’ of staying invested in equities. There is a compelling quality to his analyses – a sort of as-day-follows-night kind of logic to them. But the former professor professes too much, and investors must firmly understand that his data do not allow us to deduce the timing of market crashes and recessions.
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Facebook Fears Will Pass Jul 26, 2018

The hundreds of billions of dollars that Facebook lost overnight will probably be bid back up, as investors come to terms with the reality that the social media giant’s business model remains intact. The matter is not unlike tobacco companies able to increase cigarette usage per customer before the damage cigarettes could cause became widely understood.
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The Market Significance Of U.S.-Russia Ties Jul 24, 2018

A market read of the Helsinki summit suggests that the U.S. was looking to achieve numerous objectives vis-à-vis oil markets, Iran, China and North Korea. For example, it is interesting to see that North Korea has gotten more cooperative since that summit, now dismantling its rocket launch site. It is similarly noteworthy that Russia is now reining in Iran, and has pledged cooperation with the U.S. in oil and gas markets.
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Trillion-Dollar Deficit, Trillion-Dollar Market Cap Jul 19, 2018

The U.S. budget deficit is now set to exceed $1 trillion starting next year. Amazon is now leading the pack of companies closing in on a $1 trillion market-cap. We should all be grateful for the 4th Amendment, and yet remain concerned about the temptations of revenue officers to find deep pockets to pick.
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Forget About Trump-Putin, Look at the Dollar-Yuan Jul 17, 2018

Despite all the media attention, there is little of consequence for markets in the Trump-Putin meeting. That is a function of Russia’s current, protracted economic weakness. Ironically, the biggest long-term economic threat to Russia right now may be the U.S.-China trade war. A falling yuan can take the Russian economy down with it.
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Self-Interest In The News Jul 12, 2018

A glance at today’s news feed provides fresh reminders of the potency of self-interest. NATO is increasing expenditures, the Saudis are increasing oil production, the Chinese are softening their posture on trade issues – all in deference to a self-assertive U.S. Agree or disagree with the current administration, an understanding of this operating force in national decision-making will aid your knowledge of markets.
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Long Knives In UK Politics Spells Falling Knives In UK Markets Jul 09, 2018

The current maneuvering over Brexit is looking a lot like the classic treachery of long knives that periodically disturbs the political peace of the British Isles. Hung parliaments don’t last very long before such treachery leads to new elections. Current polling suggests a general election could lead to a Labour Party victory that would bring about an unprecedented intrusiveness in the economy from which investors will likely flee.
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Ready for Labor Day? Jul 05, 2018

Economic growth derives from the input of labor and productivity. Productivity gains have slowed in the U.S. over the past decade, making a growing labor force critical. Eventually, the impact of the U.S. tax cuts will cease to be felt, as will other temporary economic stimulants, and the U.S. will return to a path of low growth. More workers, on the other hand, might add to the Labor Day cheer by restoring workers’ prestige within the economy.
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NAFTA is Toast Jul 02, 2018

The landslide election of a leftist critic of NAFTA won’t be the cause of NAFTA’s demise; the trade framework appeared fatally wounded beforehand. The Trump Administration was committed to revising the agreement in what it perceived as America’s favor, while pro-NAFTA Canada and Mexico seemed unable to come to terms with the reality that their choice was going to be a less good deal or no deal.
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30- And 40-Somethings And Retirement Jun 28, 2018

People in their 30s and 40s are just not engaged in the issue of retirement despite all signs pointing to a looming retirement crisis, an astonishing reality given the low level of private savings and public funding for retirement. Even if younger people are prepared to work into their later years, do they not know that sometimes their careers are prematurely ended?
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Brexit, Two Years On Jun 25, 2018

Two years on it seems like Britain has failed to gain the benefits of Brexit. Britain is muddling along, though Brexit has taken a toll, particularly on the pound. Meanwhile, the Remain side is kidding itself if it thinks the status quo ante can be restored. What’s more, the spirit of Brexit has surely emboldened Scottish separatists and increased support for Irish unification, spelling further decline for the UK.
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Oil Market Surprise: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia Act In Concert To Lower Prices Jun 21, 2018

Friday’s big OPEC meeting in Vienna will have a big influence on how much consumers pay at the pump over the next several months, and it appears likely that prices will moderate in the coming period. Though oil producers have been benefiting from rising oil prices, ironically, a tacit agreement between the biggest producer and the biggest consumer of oil appears to be holding sway to keep prices down.
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Why I Bought A South Korea ETF Today Jun 18, 2018

South Korean stocks are a bargain, but the question is: How long do we need to wait for concrete confirmation of genuine progress in the peace process on the Korean peninsula? The market makes no announcements when reaching a bottom. If we wait until South Korean construction companies are paving the foundation for a new Riviera on the Sea of Japan, we’ve waited too long. Yet actions on the part of North Korea suggest the peace train has left the station.
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Financial Advice For College Students Jun 14, 2018

The Wall Street Journal recently recounted the story of a 37-year-old orthodontist whose loan debt exceeds $1 million. Here’s how you can go about paying as little for college as possible: First, define your goals. Maybe college isn’t even an appropriate expenditure. If it is appropriate, get a scholarship. If you can’t get one, take that as a signal to start off in community college. Finally, consider a low-cost online bachelor’s, allowing you to target higher value graduate and professional degree
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Trump And Trudeau Act Out World’s Economic Drama Jun 11, 2018

The media focus on personalities, but history records policies and policy shifts. That goes for this weekend’s G-7 summit, in which President Trump took umbrage at Prime Minister Trudeau’s news conference in which he declared that “Canadians will not be pushed around.” The drama we see performed today is bigger than any individual personalities and is signaling a policy direction – one of reduced international cooperation.
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U.S. Should Cut Tariffs To Protect Its Competitive Edge Jun 08, 2018

America’s protectionist policy is bad for business. What has given America its historical competitive edge was the rule of law, private property rights and low taxation, which stimulated sustained high levels of economic growth. The tariff mindset is at odds with this tradition, and it's a small step from tariffs to unneeded domestic regulation that would choke off future Apples and Googles. The U.S. should do the opposite -- that is, work to further reduce tariffs, duties and restrictions.
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A Tale of Financial Rehabilitation Jun 05, 2018

Seeking Alpha's Robyn Conti discusses her personal financial recovery in the two years since she wrote poignantly of the financial difficulty she found herself in. Her story is testimony to the ability we all have to turn ourselves around, start living within our means and start building toward a brighter future.
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Pre-Retirees Join Robots In Shouldering Work Burden May 31, 2018

A Bain & Company report called “Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality” warns that advanced economies are hurtling towards a demographic bust. However, the ensuing shrinkage of the workforce does not imply higher pay, since automation could eventually eliminate up to 50% of all current jobs. But robots can’t do everything, and the burden of work may fall on pre-retirees aged 55 to 74, while 18 to 29-year-olds hunker down in a new life stage Bain calls “second adolescenc
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Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran Sanctions And Oil Prices – A Geo-Economics Case Study May 30, 2018

A CNBC headline proclaims that the “oil market is ignoring the big Iran story.” Is there something that one analyst CNBC interviewed understands that the oil market does not? To the contrary, the market has correctly figured out what Saudi Arabia’s current interests are, and what Russia’s interests are, and as they go, so will go oil prices for now. Fears of a “nasty” Iranian response to U.S. sanctions, voiced by one analyst, are not relevant to the current oil price trend.
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A Memorial Day Portfolio May 24, 2018

Memorial Day honors members of the country’s armed forces who gave their lives in the service of their country. It would be fitting to acknowledge the price paid to afford us our freedom in a manner tailored to an investment audience. Specifically, what might a “Memorial Day portfolio” look like? We offer a few suggestions.
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Healthcare and Wealthcare May 22, 2018

Are drug companies villains profiteering off of a public that can ill afford needed medicines or are they merely earning the reward markets provide for their lifesaving and life-enhancing work? And what of advisors? The two cases are different because healthcare is a more fundamental human need, but we can still observe of both of them that society benefits from a system that rewards excellence in these areas.
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An Unobvious Implication Of Record Low Fertility May 17, 2018

U.S. fertility has reached the lowest rate since the government began tracking this figure over a century ago. The usual question troubling economists is how a declining ratio of workers to retirees can continue to support the rising retirement and health care needs of a rapidly aging population. But I wonder if falling fertility is leading to another unwholesome economic trend quietly taking root in our day-to-day lives.
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Behavioral Finance Made Simple May 14, 2018

I’ve yet to see a straightforward way of applying behavioral finance insights to investing. Are you supposed to have a checklist to make sure you’re not anchoring, herding or acting out of confirmation bias? I propose a simpler way of understanding what investing requires.
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Key To Success For New Grads May 10, 2018

Alibaba Group chairman Jack Ma was far from a stellar student before he became one of the most successful entrepreneurs in history. Whether as an entrepreneur, professional or craftsman, everyone has unique advantages they can put to good use in the marketplace.
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Not Yet Investing Enough? May 07, 2018

Housing is typically the largest item in a household budget. Thus, if you can reduce that expense, you’ve got lots of room to boost your saving and investment. You can even enjoy luxury without incurring the costs of ownership and maintenance. The important thing is to remain within the bounds of what you can afford.
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Deutsche Bank Warns U.S. Drifting Into Debt Crisis May 03, 2018

Deutsche Bank warns in a research report that the U.S. is on a path toward a debt crisis. Whereas past deficits were mainly based on the business cycle – deficits rose when tax receipts were down – today deficits are reaching new highs despite robust revenue. And whereas other counties with huge deficits are simultaneously accumulating foreign assets, the U.S. is accumulating foreign debt. Given this trajectory, we need clarity as to what options we have, and what level of pain they imply.
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Korea Deal’s Message For Markets May 01, 2018

Is the peace deal with North Korea legit? Why would North Korea accede to a deal? The behind-the-scenes diplomacy is as yet unknown, but we speculate that the matter may be akin to Libya’s voluntary decommissioning of its nuclear program in 2003. The message for markets? Markets without effective policing invites piracy.
Despite not infrequent isolationist lapses, the U.S. has taken a lead role in policing markets since the beginning of the Republic. Peace on the Korean peninsula would remove a nagging
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Get Off The Dependency Train Apr 23, 2018

The ratio of working-age population to the level of retirees continues to shrink and is on track to reach just two workers for every retiree by 2050. Just like oil economies that can't wean themselves away from the volatile commodity, or consumers who buy gas guzzlers when oil is cheap, the prison of economic dependency is hard to break away from.
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No Upside For UK Economy Apr 17, 2018

Sterling has returned to levels seen before Brexit trashed the pound. Britain has indeed made significant economic progress; but investors should ask themselves: Where is the upside? Conservative Party leader Theresa May is not having an easy time maintaining her leadership, and lying in the opposition is Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, ready to return the UK to pre-Thatcher days. With sterling and UK stocks up, now may be a good time to take profits.
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Syria A Serious Threat To World Markets Apr 12, 2018

U.S.-China tension and even North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are lesser threats to global stability than Syria. Just as allowing debt problems to fester makes future solutions more costly, the price tag for having kicked the can down the road in Syria may prove devastatingly high. Supporters of peace and prosperity must remain ever vigilant about economic and military threats while they are mere brush fires, easy and cheap to put out.
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CBO: $1 Trillion Deficit Apr 10, 2018

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office now projects a U.S. budget deficit of $1 trillion in 2020. Debt scourges do their scourging from the sidelines; in today’s environment, policies are implemented by pseudo-Keynesians (who like spending, but forget Keynes’ call to cut spending, or cut taxes but forget his call to raise them). Ironically, it may take a sharp economic dislocation to make long-term thinking cool again.
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Rates Rise, But Dollar Falls? Mar 22, 2018

The expected reaction to a rate hike would be a rising dollar, yet that did not happen. Why would the dollar fall on global currency markets even though US interest rates are now more attractive than those of the euro, sterling and the yen? I’d suggest that the U.S. economy is not as strong as the good press it has received recently – and a key cause, in my view, is a still over-leveraged economy.
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Thoughts On Money Management, Fees and Behavioral Pitfalls From An Advisor To Celebrities Mar 20, 2018

The job of a financial advisor may not differ significantly in terms of the specific tasks they do, but they can be worlds apart based on who they are, and who their clients are. Today I spoke with Tomas Garibaldi, vice president of Bel Air Investment Advisors in Los Angeles. The firm manages a rather astounding $7 billion for just 350 clients, with a minimum investment of $20 million. We talk about how his clients earned their wealth, how his firm justifies his fees, what are some pitfalls of the trade –
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Laurence Kotlikoff: ‘Our Country, Frankly, Is Bankrupt’ Mar 15, 2018

Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff warns “our country, frankly, is bankrupt.’
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What Bear Stearns And Barron’s Can Teach Us About Amazon Mar 14, 2018

Barron’s saw great opportunity in Bear Stearns in an article it published a few months before it cratered. And little wonder why – Bear had been in business for 86 years, without so much as a losing quarter until in 2007 it booked losses, from which it seemed poised to recover. Borders too had its heyday as a killer firm, until Amazon killed it. In due course, Amazon will meet its match.
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Economic Populism Taking Root Mar 07, 2018

In the wake of the resignation of Gary Cohn over the administration’s tariff policy, I offer an explanation as to why a policy that nearly every economist hates is popular politically.
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Trade War Mar 05, 2018

The U.S. and its main trading partners need cooperation and policy coordination -- not a trade war from which everyone loses.
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