Rosenberg Round-Up

Au Revoir Aug 30, 2024

Brother, Can You Spare a Job? Aug 23, 2024

On this week’s episode of the Rosenberg Round-Up, we discuss what’s behind the recent rebound in equities and the changing cross-asset picture, as well as what the 28% downward revision in employment growth is telling us. We also shed light on what lingering risks in the Commercial Real Estate sector mean for bank stocks.

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:50) — What’s changing relative asset prices, and some notes on Harris’ economic agenda

The Week Ahead (9:21) — Personal Income and Expenditure headline the week

The Spotlight (9:57) — The overlooked risks of rising CRE distress

Canada Corner (11:38) — Don’t shed a tear for the loonie

Powell to Set the Rate-Cutting Table at Jackson Hole Aug 16, 2024

The September FOMC meeting is about how much to cut rates | A look at the Harris vs. Trump polls and what it means for markets | The case for gold is stronger than ever

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:44) — Cooling U.S. inflation puts the Fed on notice (despite hot retail sales)

The Week Ahead (10:12) — All eyes on the Democratic convention and Jackson Hole

The Spotlight (14:29) — $3,000 per ounce is still the target for gold

“The Real Threat Is an Own Goal Not a Black Swan” | Brett House Aug 14, 2024

In our latest special interview episode, we welcome seasoned market economist and current Columbia Business School professor Brett House to discuss the Yen carry trade reversal sending shockwaves through markets, all things Powell and the Fed with a special look at Jackson Hole, Trump vs. Harris and the Bank of Canada

The Yen carry trade reversal (1:35) | The Fed’s assessment of the U.S. economy (10:16) | Three counter-arguments why this time is different (17:00) | What to expect from Jackson Hole (23:25) | Upcoming U.S. Presidential election (25:35) | Any concern about the BoC’s rate cuts (30:45)

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Navigating the Turbulence Aug 09, 2024

Taking stock after a volatile week | Macro data will drive markets | Going defensive

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (1:06) — Dissecting the sell-off

The Week Ahead (9:40) — Markets primed to sell on dovish surprises

The Spotlight (10:54) — How to reposition the equity portfolio

Canada Corner (12:00) — Bank of Canada back to balance

Land of the Rising Yen Aug 02, 2024

The evolving global rate picture | Earnings to drive market in macro-lite week ahead | How to invest in the land of the rising Yen

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:47) — The Fed stayed on the sidelines while the BoJ hiked and the BoE cut

The Week Ahead (8:05) — A light data flow puts earnings center-stage

The Spotlight (9:45) — Japan: what a fading carry trade means for investors

The Mag 7 Run Out of Ammo Jul 25, 2024

The bull run has come to a grinding halt as large-cap tech retreats from overstretched valuations. But the concerning macro narrative driving the rest of the market deserves more attention.

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:00:52) — The bull run grinds to a halt as the global macro outlook weakens

The Week Ahead (0:12:30) — Fed and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls take center stage

The Spotlight (0:16:02) — We introduce our new and improved Beige Book Sentiment Index

London Calling: The Case for a Post-Election Re-Rating in U.K. Assets Jul 19, 2024

Markets take a sharp turn | June activity data surprised to the upside, but Q2 GDP unlikely to impress | Emerging investment opportunities across the pond as the U.K. enters a period of stability

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:40) — The market shifts its focus from growth to value — but don’t call it the “Trump Trade”

The Week Ahead (7:05) — Flash PMIs and U.S. Q2 GDP

The Spotlight (9:00) — A bullish view on (most) U.K. assets following a historic election

Canada Corner (16:52) — Bank of Canada prepares a second cut

Concerning Earnings: What to Look for in Q2 Reports Jul 12, 2024

Powell signaled the need for more “confidence” in his congressional testimony – did a light inflation print deliver it? We also touch on political and economic developments in Europe, and shine our spotlight on the upcoming earnings season.

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:41) — U.S. CPI delivers a downside surprise, and why we were disappointed by Powell’s testimony

The Week Ahead (11:21) — Activity data in the U.S. as politics dominates the news flow

The Spotlight (14:19) — What to look for and where to find value as Q2 earnings season kicks off

“Not a Bull Market, a Bifurcated Market” | David Rosenberg Jul 09, 2024

In our latest special interview episode, we welcome back our Founder and President, David Rosenberg, to get his views on a perplexing stock market, what we can learn from the past, and how to think about the U.S. election – among much else.

Is this even a bull market? (0:30)
David's Philosophy on Investing in this market (2:57)
What is the discount rate telling us right now? ( 5:24)
How the average U.S. household invests? (9:00)
Dave's thoughts on index funds (16:10)
Investing around elections ( 21: 54 )
Final thoughts on the equity market ( 28:42 )

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Economic Consequences of the U.S. Election Jul 05, 2024

We reflect on a week dominated by global politics, and shine our spotlight on what the shifting probabilities around the U.S. election mean for markets

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In This Episode

The Week in Review (0:45) — A compressed Independence Day week couldn’t stop the rally

The Week Ahead (6:36) — Round 2 of the French election will open the week before making way for U.S. CPI

The Spotlight (9:40) — What the shifting probabilities in the U.S. election will mean for the markets

What a Mean-Reverting Savings Rate Would Mean for the Economy Jun 28, 2024

This week we cover a mixed bag in data, check in on Canadian inflation, and shine our spotlight on the U.S. savings rate and its impact on consumption.

The Week in Review (1:05) — Markets took a breather as the economic data sent mixed signals

The Week Ahead (4:48) — All eyes on nonfarm payrolls

The Spotlight (8:03) — What the ultra-low savings rate tells us bout the U.S. consumer

Canada Corner (12:54) — Will an inflation hiccup derail further cuts?

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Margin Revolution – How U.S. Inflation Will Fall to 2% Jun 21, 2024

This week we cover the extreme optimism in equity markets against a backdrop of softening economic data. We shine our spotlight on how declining pricing power and margin compression are bringing down inflation in the U.S.

The Week in Review (1:03) — The bulls charge; retail sales slump; Bank of England stands pat

The Week Ahead (6:37) —Europe politics comes to the forefront in a data-light week

The Spotlight (8:08) — Firms are losing pricing power, dragging on margins and helping disinflate the economy

Canada Corner (12:57) — The BoC is not concerned about a weaker Loonie, more cuts will follow

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Fed Does Its Best to Sound Hawkish — It Will Backfire Jun 14, 2024

This week we cover the Fed’s puzzling projections, falling inflation, and the European elections. We shine our spotlight on the ups and downs of a consumer recession.

The Week in Review (1:15) — Did the Fed even look at the soft inflation report that dropped during its meeting?

The Week Ahead (12:44) — The BoE rate decision headlines the week, while retail sales and industrial production data drop stateside.

The Spotlight (13:38) — Where do consumers cut the most in recessions — and how should your portfolio be positioned?

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The Cutting Cycle Commences Jun 07, 2024

This week we cover the onset of the global cutting cycle, as the BoC and the ECB took important first steps this week. Then we shine our spotlight beyond the S&P 500, arguing that small is beautiful.

The Week in Review (0:40) — The BoC and the ECB ease and the U.S. data softens

The Week Ahead (6:56) — A potential damp squib from the FOMC — but keep an eye on CPI

The Spotlight (8:06) — Looking for value beyond the S&P 500

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Data Revisions, Rate Decisions, Growth Previsions May 31, 2024

This week we highlight the pile-up of negative data revisions that are changing the cyclical picture, we touch on the outlook for the Fed as its peers prepare to cut, and we shine our spotlight on new long-term growth outlook estimates for the world’s largest economies.

The Week in Review (1:45) — The latest Beige Book, GDP revisions, and Dimon on private credit

The Week Ahead (7:14) — The ECB and BoC to cut (?)

The Spotlight (8:36) — Where to invest for the long term

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The Macro View From Europe | Gerhard Massenbauer May 29, 2024

In our latest occasional interview episode, we welcome Gerhard Massenbauer, chief analyst at Treasury Scout, to the Rosenberg Roundup. Gerhardt is an incisive commentator with over 25 years of experience in global and European FX and rates who is never afraid to make a bold call.

We cover the opportunities opening up in Europe, what the sequencing of rate cuts will mean for investors, how the post-election evolution of fiscal policy will drive global interest rates, as well as touching on Gerhard’s view on gold, and his global FX picks.

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Setting the Record Straight on Household Balance Sheets May 24, 2024

This week, we cover the latest signal from earnings, and we go toe-to-toe with the KC Fed on household balance sheets

The Week in Review (0:36) — AI-related stocks soar on strong earnings while consumers tighten their belts

The Week Ahead (4:11) — The Beige Book will bring the latest signal from the real economy

The Spotlight (5:01) — Why it’s wrong to think that a “record” low debt-to-income ratio means households can keep spending

Canada Corner (8:38) — Another promising inflation report out of Canada

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Not Your Father’s (or Grandfather’s) Emerging Markets May 17, 2024

This week, we cover the trifecta of soft data that’s sent stocks to new highs. Our spotlight shines on Emerging Market stocks, and what the (eventual) fall in global interest rates will mean for them.

The Week in Review (1:21) — Why softening U.S. data has pushed the S&P 500 to new highs

The Spotlight (8:42) — Not your grandfather’s Emerging Markets

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It’s Not a Drag Getting Old: An Emerging Investment Theme May 10, 2024

This week, what a slowdown in nonfarm payrolls meant for markets, and how to position for the opportunity in America’s aging capital stock.

The Week in Review (1:06) — A rare weak employment report and the Swedish Riksbank cuts rates

The Week Ahead (7:19) — CPI and retail sales headline a big week for macro data

The Spotlight (7:41) — Who will benefit from the replacement and repair of America’s private capital stock?

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Laboring Over the Job Market Misconceptions May 03, 2024

This week, we look back on Powell’s pushback, shine our spotlight on the labor market data, and drop by Canada to check in on growth prospects.

The Week in Review (1:30) — Powell holds the line on rates guidance, and what earnings reports are telling us about the U.S. consumer

The Week Ahead (7:32) — The Bank of England meeting headlines a crowded international calendar

The Spotlight (8:47) — We dive deep into the U.S. labor market, from coming NFP revisions to industry-level slack

Canada Corner (15:35) — Canada has not dodged a soft landing

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The Downside GDP Surprise was Less Than Surprising Apr 26, 2024

This week, we dig into the combination of weak growth and hot consumer price inflation that nobody saw coming in the U.S. GDP report. Our spotlight is focused on Central Bank gold buying.

The Week in Review (0:54) — Our take on Q1 GDP, U.S. equities, and the risks in private markets

The Week Ahead (8:10) — Nonfarm payrolls will headline a busy week

The Spotlight (8:33) — Sustained central bank gold buying keeps our long-term $3,000 target intact

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How Investors Should Prepare For the Day of Fiscal Reckoning | David Hay Apr 24, 2024

We welcome author, investor, activist, thinker, and co-CIO of advisory firm Evergreen Gavekal, David "The Haymaker" Hay onto the Rosenberg Round-Up.

Our interview with Dave marks the inaugural episode of a series of standalone interviews that will run alongside the weekly Roundup on a (roughly) 1-month cadence. In the series, we'll take you deeper on a range of topics with recognized experts.

In this episode, Dave frames today's main market themes (from AI to Gold to fiscal policy to the Fed) from the perspective of broad cycles of economic and social history, and explains how the median investor is positioned "exactly improperly" for the risk environment that has built over the past decade.

For more on David Hay visit his Substack, "Haymaker": https://haymaker.substack.com/

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Are Bulls Finally Seeing Red? Apr 19, 2024

This week, our spotlight is on our recent report on the wealth effects and its role as the driving force behind spending.

The Week in Review (1:19) — Markets at an inflection point as Fed cuts get pushed back

The Spotlight (8:22) — Wealth effects have put the wind in the U.S. consumer’s sails

Canada Corner (13:20) — We give the 2024 Budget a D- grade

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Deconstructing “Weird Wednesday” Apr 12, 2024

This week we try to extract some meaning from a weird and wacky Wednesday, when a slightly warmer-than-expected CPI number sent markets haywire. Later, we shine our spotlight on the implications of the gold run-up for mining stocks and silver prices.

The Week in Review (1:19) — Weird Wednesday

The Week Ahead (7:18) — Listen carefully to the Fedspeak

The Spotlight (8:44) — Will silver prices and mining stocks benefit from the gold surge?

Canada Corner (12:38) — The Bank of Canada (and the ECB) set out the path for rate cuts

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Access our latest Special Report on Gold: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/gold-special-report

Going for Gold Apr 05, 2024

This week, our spotlight is on our recent gold special report, along with a touch on some other commodities.

The Week in Review (2:08) — A spring thaw in the U.S. data (but can it last?)

The Week Ahead (5:17) — All eyes on the BoC and ECB for a dovish tilt, and the U.S. CPI key for what the Fed says next

The Spotlight (6:12) — Gold to $3,000? And should we be worried about broader commodity prices?

Access our latest Special Report Why Gold Is Glittering — And Why It’s Headed For $3,000: https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/gold-special-report

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Should We Still Be Worried About Regional Banks? Mar 28, 2024

This week, we look back at some housing data and why there has been a pivot in that space. Our spotlight focuses on regional banks and why caution is warranted.

The Week in Review (3:10) — Is housing becoming a buyer's market?

The Spotlight (6:06) — What do regional banks and rocket ships have in common?

Canada Corner (10:07) — Time to “smash the emergency glass” according to the Bank of Canada

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Fighting The Fiscal Boogeyman Mar 22, 2024

This week, we dissect the Fed’s pleasingly boring meeting amid a poor run of data. Our spotlight is on the worrying fiscal situation in the U.S., and when to start panicking. And Canada Corner is back in style.

The Week in Review (2:52) — Powell Plays the Central Banker

The Week Ahead (6:29) — U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Drop on the Friday Holiday

The Spotlight / Interview (7:00) — What to worry about when it comes to the U.S. debt, with U of T’s Jason Choi.

Canada Corner (19:29) — Core inflation is behaving – Bring on the Bank of Canada cuts!

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The Real, the Nominal, and the Fed Mar 15, 2024

This week, we dissect recent inflation data and ask what it means for next week’s Fed meeting. Our spotlight focuses on Korea and its Japan-esque potential.

The Week in Review (1:05) — How this week’s data shifted the narrative

The Week Ahead (7:38) — All eyes on the Fed

The Spotlight (9:57) — Does Korea deserve a place on your watchlist?

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Bitcoin Glitters, but is it Gold? Mar 08, 2024

This week, we get deep on the big market themes, discussing the rally in gold and Bitcoin, and pondering “where to?” for equities? Our spotlight interview focuses on why we’re sticking to our bullish long-term call on Japan.

The Week in Review (0:43) — Assessing the markets from, bullion to equities to bitcoin

The Spotlight / Interview (8:30) — Japan: a good time to stop and smell the cherry blossoms

Canada Corner (15:38) — Tiff stiffs the bond bulls

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The “Choose Your Own Adventure” Economy Mar 01, 2024

This week, we discuss the scattered early signals on Q1 activity. Our Spotlight is on how “exceptional” the U.S. growth acceleration was in a global context.

The Week in Review (1:55) — The “choose your own adventure” economy

The Spotlight (6:23) — The new U.S. (economic) exceptionalism

Canada Corner (13:02) — Canada narrowly escapes a recession, but it’s not getting any wealthier

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The Magnificent Seven Are the New Nifty Fifty Feb 23, 2024

This week we discuss the Fed Minutes along with the LEI. Our spotlight is on the Nifty Fifty and how history tends to rhyme.

The Week in Review (1:18) — Spending a ‘minute’ on the Fed and a look at the LEI

The Week Ahead (5:27) — All eyes on consumer spending and consumer inflation data

The Spotlight (5:42) — The Nifty Fifty and the Magnificent Seven have a lot in common

Canada Corner (8:09) — Will the latest inflation data bring forward the BoC's first cut?

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David Rosenberg on Why We’re Sticking to Our Guns Feb 16, 2024

This week we sit down with Dave Rosenberg to talk about the hot start to the year for equity markets and the U.S. economy as a whole. Dave outlines why we don’t see enough in the early data to drop our 2024 recession call.

Introduction (0:20)

The Week in Review (0:41) — Reflecting on a disappointing CPI number

The Week Ahead (1:37) — Fed minutes to provide clarity on what might give the FOMC the “confidence” to cut

The Spotlight (2:15) — How the top end of the income distributions drives the consumer spending cycle

The Interview (4:11) — Dave Rosenberg on why we’re sticking to our guns

Canada Corner (13:34) — Will the Bank of Canada end up cutting before the Fed?

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Access the recent webcast with Peter Boockvar: https://www.bigmarker.com/rosenberg-research1/Replay-Webcast-with-Dave-Featuring-Special-Guest-Peter-Boockvar-611062d65431d502a7ca8eb5

U.S. Consumers Have a Strict Debt Only Diet Feb 09, 2024

This week, we take a look into U.S. household debt and credit, finding that consumers are looking far from “resilient.” We also host Marius Jongstra, head of market strategy at Rosenberg Research, for his latest views on the major asset classes.

Introduction (0:20)

The Week in Review (0:44) — Diving into the U.S. credit data via the SLOOS and NY Fed’s Household Debt and Credit report

The Week Ahead (2:27) — Some huge data releases on deck headlined by U.S. CPI and retail sales

The Spotlight (2:58) — Fed undershoot? Why we think the Fed’s average inflation-targeting framework won’t be an issue

The Interview (6:34) —Marius Jongstra on the markets

Canada Corner (11:21) — Home sales are beginning to pick up while prices falter

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“What's Priced In” to U.S. stocks Feb 02, 2024

This is the Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week’s episode, we host Bhawana Chhabra, CFA, Senior Market Strategist at Rosenberg Research, for a look at her new report on the US equity market titled “What’s Priced In.”

Introduction (0:20) — Welcome to another week of Rosenberg Round-Up

The Week in Review (1:12) — Diving into the latest Fed meeting, ISM manufacturing report and Non-Farm payrolls

The Week Ahead (6:35) — Earnings in focus next week

The Spotlight (7:00) — A U.S.-focused follow-up to our Global Outlook

The Interview (9:01) — We chat with Bhawana Chhabra, CFA, about What’s Priced In

Canada corner (14:21) — A look at Canadian GDP

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David Rosenberg on the 2024 Outlook Jan 26, 2024

Welcome to the inaugural episode of Rosenberg Round-Up, hosted by Dylan Smith, Vice President and Senior Economist at Rosenberg Research. On this week's episode, we host David Rosenberg for his outlook on the year ahead.

Introduction (0:20) — Welcome to the Rosenberg Round-up

The Week in Review (1:43) — S&P 500 hits new all-time high, but we’re not convinced

The Week Ahead (3:27) — Here’s looking at you, Chairman Powell

The Spotlight (3:45) — A QT pivot is coming into view

The Interview (6:38) — We chat with Dave Rosenberg about our 2024 Outlook

Canada corner (20:05) — Whisper it quietly, but we think the BoC is trying to pop the housing bubble