Riskgaming

Latest Episodes:

The challenges of complex risks in game design Aug 20, 2025

Show notes

Building great Riskgaming scenarios is far more of an art than science. The designer needs to understand the players — what they know and what they don’t — and then carefully construct a landscape of decisions that has fidelity to the real world while not being overwhelming. Parsimony is key, and that means a designer really has to grok the fundamentals of the issue under hand to be able to offer the best experience.

That’s where Randy Lubin shines. Through his studio Leveraged Play, he has designed a whole suite of fun and profound policy simulations, focusing on the intricacies between tech and culture. Now, he’s also designing a new Riskgaming scenario for Lux, focused on AI, automation and the future of cities, exploring policy issues like employment and housing.

With host Danny Crichton, Randy talks about his design process, what’s going on with his upcoming scenario, how AI is changing the future of game design, and a bit about his game design community Foresight Games.

Intel, chips and America’s future Aug 13, 2025

Show notes

By now, we’re all familiar with the crisis that has faced America’s chip manufacturing industry. Intel remains the last bastion of homegrown chips (if we exempt new developments from TSMC and Samsung). Yet, Intel’s stock has been bludgeoned, down more than 55% over the past five years as Nvidia skyrocketed about 1,475% in the same period. What would it take to rebuild America’s chip capacity? Do we have a chance to build our own TSMC?

That’s the question that Kyle Harrison has been asking. He’s a general partner at Contrary Capital, and alongside his co-author Maxx Yung, the two wrote a new blockbuster report called, “Building an American TSMC.” It’s a magisterial look at the accidental history, enervating present and intricate future of semiconductor fabrication in the United States, and what it would really take to maintain and grow this critical capability.

Kyle and host Danny Crichton talk about Intel’s recent and historical woes, how to avoid another massive manufacturing failure like General Electric and Boeing, the complex barriers to entry in the semis market, and finally, why ecosystem development particularly around specialized labor is so crucial to protect.

What’s next for European defense autonomy Aug 07, 2025

Show notes

There has been a massive influx of defense funding into Europe since Putin’s war on Ukraine started in early 2022. A sea change is underway, with Germany loosening its debt brake and countries from Poland and the United Kingdom to the Baltics all reseting their expectations for defense this century. But after several years, it’s time to take a retrospective look and ask, “What’s next?”To do that, host Danny Crichton talks with Eric Slesinger today. Eric is general partner of 201 Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund focused on advancing freedom and autonomy in Europe. He’s based in Madrid, and brings a deep local perspective on the future of the Old Continent and its new tech.The two talk about the current defense tech situation in Europe, how EU countries are trying to band together around procurement, the history and future of gray zone and multi-domain combat, and where Europe competes and even out-excels America in the defense world.

The future of science in an age of spending cuts Jul 30, 2025

Show notes

Science feels under attack. The Trump administration has proposed budget cuts of up to one-third of all basic research funding, breaking a generations-long, bipartisan consensus that what is good for science is good for America. Even if not fully enacted by Congress, even the hint of cuts has already had an extraordinary effect on the perceptions of higher education and science leaders on America’s stability. Lux recently hosted a dinner with a group of these luminaries, and the general conclusion is that science institutions will need to radically change in the years ahead to adapt.

Host Danny Crichton wanted to talk more about this subject, and then he realized that we just published a great episode on our sister podcast, The Orthogonal Bet. Lux’s scientist-in-residence, Sam Arbesman, had on Kenneth Stanley, the senior vice president of open-endedness at Lila Sciences. Kenneth is also the author of “Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned: The Myth of the Objective, a widely praised book exploring the nature of creativity and discovery.”

The two talked about the future of research institutions, and how new forms of organizational designs might be the key to unlocking the next frontiers of knowledge in the 21st century. Their conversation delves into the tradeoffs between traditional and novel research institutions, how to carve out space for exploratory or “weird” work within large organizations, and how research itself can serve as a tool for navigating disruption.

Can AI teach us critical thinking? Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

AI and education seem like a match made in heaven, and certainly, much work and dollars are being spent trying to bring the two together. As more and more people eschew reading and outsource deep thought to Deep Research though, do we still have a chance to build up our critical thinking skills?

It’s an open question, and one that host Danny Crichton has been exploring this summer. In this episode, he narrates excerpts on the concepts of the psychology of decision making, risk-taking and dopamine to consider the broader question of whether we can ever truly grapple with radical uncertainty in the age of AI. Included in today’s episode are Ian Curtiss, Graham Norris, Nicholas Rush Smith, Kelly Clancy, Paul Collier and Brian Klaas.

Finding a Third Way on the AI singularity Jul 16, 2025

Show notes

Our guest today, Mike Sexton, believes that the AI singularity has arrived, and somehow, it ended up “on page C3 in the newspaper.” What he’s getting at is that the tools we have at our fingertips today like ChatGPT, NotebookLM and others are already so diversely capable, we have reached a point of no return when it comes to future societal change. We need to get ahead of those changes, embrace them, and offer new paths for everyone to take advantage of these tools.

Mike serves as the Senior Policy Advisor for AI and Digital Technology at Third Way, the prominent centrist Democratic think tank that emerged from the Clinton administration and the pro-tech, pro-competition left that was at the core of national power in the 1990s. He researches the changing policy landscape around AI technologies, and argues that Democrats need a new direction other than anti-capitalism or existential risk doomerism.

Joining hosts Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the rise of effective altruism and effective accelerationism (or e/acc), why improving government services is so critical for the future of the Democratic Party, AI technologies in robotics and research, and finally, why a bipartisan consensus is emerging on protecting America’s AI industry going forward.

How Jane Jacobs got Americans stuck Jul 09, 2025

Show notes

Over the past few decades, an astonishing pattern has taken place: Americans no longer migrate. From a peak of roughly one third of the country moving cities in a single year, today, migration rates have declined and are now in line with the Old Continent of Europe. The dynamism of the American economy was predicated on all kinds of people seeking out work and building families, but now that mobility is gone — and we need to find out why.

Yoni Appelbaum, a senior editor at The Atlantic, just published his new book, “Stuck: How the Privileged and the Propertied Broke the Engine of American Opportunity.” In it, he explores the critical implications of a country that is no longer seeking fortune, from the decline of job growth and opportunities to the high prices of housing, and ultimately, the immiseration of the American dream. He lays down the blame on many, from Jane Jacobs and Robert Moses to communities that have made exclusion their modus operandi.

Alongside hosts Danny Crichton and Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about why Jane Jacobs has gone from hero to villain in a generation, why the history of zoning portends further challenges to reform, how the abundance movement is changing the tenor of this debate, how Covid-19 acted as a natural experiment for mobility, and finally, some solutions on how to help Americans live where they want and build a more prosperous future.

What America can learn from the rebooting of Estonia Jun 27, 2025

Show notes

Estonia is a nation of 1.3 million people, situated in a dangerous neighborhood on the Baltic Sea. It gained its independence early in the 20th century, only for the Soviets to take the country by force. Estonia gained its independence again in 1991, and has since become one of the most digital-native countries in the world. How did a nation with a feared secret police become so open to the government digitizing data on every one of its citizens? And why did other former Soviet Republics not follow in the same way?

Those questions and more are at the center of Joel Burke’s new book, “Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution.” The nation has outperformed across the board, and Joel takes a full look at the unique institutions and cultures that led to such success.

Joining alongside host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the early years of Estonia’s existence, why Skype was such a watershed for the nation, why privacy has a very different meaning in Estonia than elsewhere, why eGovernment can actually be even more private than our existing data systems in the United States, and finally, why Estonia’s government has so deeply embraced the private sector.

The relevant axis of political conflict is change versus stasis Jun 20, 2025

Show notes

Abundance has become the word of the year in politics, led by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s book and a slew of articles and podcasts trailing in its wake. Everyone loves growth and prosperity of course, but what ultimately matters in local politics is organizing. To build the future in America’s cities, you’ve got to secure petitions, representation and votes, and that’s the subject of today’s show.

Joining host Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner are Ryder Kessler and Catherine Vaughn, the two co-heads of Abundance New York. They’ve built up a decentralized organization of several thousand locals looking to expand New York’s prosperity in the 21st century by developing a slate of programming including meetups, petition drives, political endorsements and more. Ryder was formerly a founder of a tech startup, and Catherine built an organization to elect state legislative candidates across America.

The four talk about the crisis facing New York City, why the status quo bias is so heavy, how Abundance New York is changing the narrative around prosperity, what it’s like to organize a community centered on local issues, what’s it like to serve in local politics, and finally, how to grapple with the historical legacy of Robert Moses.

Samuel Arbesman on his new book, The Magic of Code Jun 10, 2025

Show notes

It’s not every day that we get to fete the launch of a new book by one of our colleagues at Lux Capital, so today is a very special day. Lux’s scientist-in-residence, Sam Arbesman, just published his new book, “The Magic of Code: How Digital Language Created and Connects Our World―and Shapes Our Future.” It’s a deep dive into the wonderful conjuring that comes from coding computers, and Sam explores programming languages, spreadsheets, and how code bends reality all in a taut narrative. At its center, Sam is looking to bring the human back into the machine, and create a better computing environment for the future.

Joining Editor-in-Chief of Riskgaming Danny Crichton and Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner, the three talk about the new book and its major themes, the writing, editing and publishing process, as well as also how Sam is feeling about the science and venture world after nearly a decade with Lux.This episode will be published on both the Riskgaming and The Orthogonal Bet podcast feeds.

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