Reuters Morning Bid

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The 4% problem May 13, 2026

Show notes

U.S. April inflation lands at 3.8% and May is forecast to top 4% - twice the Fed's target - as the Iran fuel shock continues to ripple through prices. Futures markets now put an 80% chance on the Fed raising rates within twelve months. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump heads to Beijing with a delegation of top CEOs for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Plus, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a rebellion inside his own Labour Party as thirty-year gilt yields hit their highest since the 1990s.

Today’s recommended read: G7 long bond stress intensifies, Mike Dolan

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Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Warshed and ready May 12, 2026

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Kevin Warsh is set to be cleared to take over the Federal Reserve just as a U.S. inflation reading is forecast to show headline CPI at its highest in about three years. Markets are already rattled after President Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "on life support," sending crude above $105 a barrel, while UK gilt yields hit their highest since 1998 as cabinet members reportedly turn against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Today’s recommended read: Warsh's red lines worry world finance by Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin, and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Xi marks the spot May 11, 2026

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Chinese stocks hit 11-year highs and the yuan reaches a three-year peak against the dollar ahead of a Trump-Xi summit later this week, with above-forecast export growth and China's highest producer price inflation in more than three years potentially strengthening Beijing's hand at the table. Oil climbs back above $104 a barrel after Trump called Iran's response to U.S. peace proposals "totally unacceptable."

Today’s recommended read: Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs, Clyde Russell

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Week ahead: Yuan to watch May 10, 2026

Show notes

Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing with a packed agenda: the Iran war and its energy implications, trade and tariffs, and a deepening tech rivalry that includes a reported Beijing order for Meta to unwind its investment in Chinese AI startup Manas. Meanwhile, the offshore yuan has hit its highest level in three years ahead of the summit, fueling speculation about exchange rate discussions.

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Week in review: Big oil bets, jobs and tariffs May 09, 2026

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Amanda Cooper and Peter Devlin discuss the week that was, including Reuters revelation that a total of $7 billion oil price bets ahead the Iran war news. Hear how US jobs numbers beat expectations beat for a second straight month and what another court ruling on tariffs could mean to the global economy.

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Unstoppable stock rally? May 08, 2026

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Stocks are still defying gravity, even as Gulf tensions flare and President Trump's tariffs face another legal setback. With U.S. jobs numbers due later today, investors are about to find out how much good news is already priced in.

Today’s recommended read: Shrinking US fuel stocks leave Trump exposed, Ron Bousso

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Chip stock boom May 07, 2026

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Asian markets return from Golden Week to a tech-driven rally, with Japan's Nikkei surging 6% and SoftBank jumping nearly 20%. Meanwhile, Tehran mulls a one-page U.S. proposal to end the Iran war, and U.S. labor market data shows hiring holding up despite the oil shock.

Today’s recommended read: Trapdoor creaks for dollar if Iran war ends, Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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Iran's 'Trump' card May 06, 2026

Show notes

Oil falls and stocks hit another record high after the Trump administration suspends "Project Freedom," citing progress in Iran negotiations. AMD surges 16% and Samsung jumps more than 10% on roaring chip demand tied to the AI build-out. And long-dated government bond yields climb to multi-decade highs in the U.S. and UK.

Today’s recommended read: US long bonds over 5% - buy or beware?, Mike Dolan

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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What is the NACHO trade? May 05, 2026

Show notes

Oil holds above $110 a barrel as fighting in the Gulf intensifies, with Iranian forces striking a UAE oil installation and small boats exchanging fire with U.S. forces near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a sharp upgrade to U.S. earnings forecasts and soaring AI spending projections keep equity investors from heading for the exits.

Today’s recommended read: Forget 3% US inflation. It's heading for 4%, Jamie McGeever

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Read more from Amanda Cooper and Anna Szymanski

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

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The week ahead: Fed fight May 03, 2026

Show notes

Kevin Warsh steps into the Fed chair role this week with three regional Fed presidents calling for the removal of any easing bias and Jerome Powell staying on the board until 2028 — leaving no immediate new vacancy for the White House to fill. Plus, Friday's payrolls report will be the week's key test of whether the employment side of the economy remains as resilient as it has been since the Iran conflict began.

Subscribe to Mike Dolan's Morning Bid newsletter, and check out his columns on Reuters Open Interest

Produced by Eliza Davis Beard, Ethan Plotkin and Abisoye Adelusi

Sound engineering and music by Sebastian and Josh Sommer

Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices.

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