Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Daily Briefing - June 16, 2020 Jun 16, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to unpack today's positive retail numbers as well as whether the recession is now "over" (even if in name only). Bennington and Harrison explore what this actually means in the technical sense, but how it may lend itself to a double-dip recession in the same way the Great Depression was. They also discuss the increased spread of the virus, the public perception of COVID-19 wrecking more havoc on the economy, and Jay Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee today. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses how the Fed’s announcement on its corporate bond-buying program as well as burgeoning retail sales numbers have supported the stock market rallies this week.

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Daily Briefing - June 15, 2020 Jun 15, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss a day of "risk on risk off" on Wall Street. Ed maps out a new paradigm he's noticing in the world of energy, equities, and the dollar, and Ash places the vacillations of U.S. stocks in context of central bank liquidity and the ongoing pandemic. Ed and Ash also discuss the CALPers bold move into private equity and private debt. In the intro, Jack Farley looks at the shape of the "volatility smile" and discusses the looming bankruptcy risks in the oil and gas sector.

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The Interview - The New Frontier with Trevor Mottl and Raoul Pal Jun 14, 2020

Show notes

Trevor Mottl, managing director at Lazard Labs, speaks to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about how machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) can inform and transform the investment process – from idea generation to position sizing to risk management. He tells Raoul about the AI team he runs at Lazard Asset Management that uses machine learning to identify patterns in markets too complex for the human brain to recognize in order to reliably generate alpha too obscure for human investors to reliably capture. Mottl also breaks down his three-piece framework of finance – which includes pricing, time horizon, and liquidity – and explains how this framework has shaped his investment philosophy and informed his macro outlook.

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The Interview - When The Whole Daisy Chain Unwinds Jun 13, 2020

Show notes

James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis.

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Daily Briefing - June 12 , 2020 Jun 12, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison discuss today’s undulating recovery as global equities tried to regain ground lost in yesterday’s market rout. Raoul and Ed explore why today’s snapback wasn’t as strong as expected and Raoul places this discussion within the context of his “unfolding” thesis. In the intro Jack Farley discusses the VIX and a daring attempt by Hertz bondholders to take advantage of the moment.

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Daily Briefing - June 11, 2020 Jun 11, 2020

Show notes

Managing editor Ed Harrison joins Lloyd Khaner, general partner and CIO at Khaner Capital Management, to discuss his macro outlook for the next year and beyond. Khaner explains some of the growth opportunities he sees in equity markets and breaks down how he determines value in a volatile market saturated with liquidity. In the intro, Peter Cooper gives an update on how the global reopening has affected the spread of coronavirus.

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Daily Briefing - June 10, 2020 Jun 10, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins Jay Pelosky, CIO and co-founder of TPW Investment Management, to unpack his contrarian and bullish thesis on the economy and markets. Pelosky argues that the big plays for 2020 is not in tech, but in commodities, as well as in value stocks and cyclicals. He explains that the overwhelmingly strong stimulus, both in the forms of monetary and fiscal policies, have undergirded demand in a way that will allow it to spring back later in the year. Pelosky also discusses why this is the decade of Europe and ESG, the growing appreciation for EM currencies, and the potential headwinds that might dampen the current broad appetite for equities. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews the Fed’s latest press release and delves into some of their rate forecasts and economic projections.

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Daily Briefing - June 9, 2020 Jun 09, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss market sentiment in light of NBER's recent announcement that the U.S. slid into recession in February. Bennington and Harrison explore whether market participants are betting that liquidity will mitigate the credit cycle's severity and whether this could be a miscalculation that catches investors off guard, leading to a “double-dip” recession. They also draw comparisons between today’s markets to that of the dot-com era, highlight the shift toward momentum trading, and share their thoughts on how durable damage to demand can bring an unnaturally elevated market crashing down later in the year. In the intro, Peter Cooper explains the surge in new online brokerage accounts and explores particular instances of excess speculation by retail investors.

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Daily Briefing - June 8, 2020 Jun 08, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington and managing editor Ed Harrison map out their framework for the rest of 2020. Ed and Ash look at the steepening yield curve and the continued ascent of U.S. equities. Ed gives additional color to his macro thesis and reflects on his bullish call in April on Europe’s re-opening. Ed and Ash also look forward to the upcoming interviews with Michael Howell and Darius Dale. In the intro, Jack Farley takes a look at the rising tensions between Germany and the ECB.

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The Interview - How to Stay Safe on the Rollercoaster Ride (w/ Ric Edelman) Jun 07, 2020

Show notes

Ric Edelman, chairman and co-founder of Edelman LLC, speaks to Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington about how investors can position themselves for success during this unprecedented crisis. Edelman analyzes the ongoing calamity through the lens of behavioral finance, and gives recommendations for how investors should be thinking about their savings and investments. He recommends that investors take the long-term, thoughtful approach and not worry about short-term price gyrations - but he does prescribe caution for investors who are averse to wild swings.

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