Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

The Interview - Lining Up The Dollar Dominoes w/ Brent Johnson and Lyn Alden Jul 25, 2020

Show notes

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for an in-depth discussion on the fate of the world's most important currency: the U.S. dollar. Johnson gives a strategic update on his "Dollar Milkshake" thesis and explains his bullish long-term view of the dollar, based on the outstanding glut of dollar-denominated debt. Alden considers this analysis and introduces a less bullish view, which she bases on the U.S.'s high trade deficit and negative net international investment position (NIIP). Using many detailed charts, Alden and Johnson compare their ideas and reach something of a synthesis between their two views. The pair also reflect on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, and they also explore whether a move to a multipolar currency world is possible.

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Daily Briefing – July 24, 2020 – Inter-Asset Correlations Can Be Telling: Max Wiethe Jul 24, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by editor Max Wiethe to reflect on a week of divergent price action. Ash and Max analyze the extreme rallies in precious metals, with Max describing his macro framework through the lens of his Real Vision Live interview with Greg Weldon. Ash then explores the rapidly approaching fiscal cliff, which leads into a philosophical discussion on financial journalists’ penchant for making uncertain connections between news headlines and moves in asset prices. Max describes his view on the dollar, and Ash and Max close by examining the dislocations between and within different equity indices. In the intro, Jack Farley goes over the latest economic data and explores the recent bid to rescue Brooks Brothers from bankruptcy.

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Daily Briefing – July 23, 2020 – We Are In A Secular Stagnating Market: Tyler Neville Jul 23, 2020

Show notes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, joins Real Vision’s Tyler Neville to break down his ideas around secular stagnating markets, demographics, and pensions. Tyler discusses how mega corporations are no longer playing to win, but playing to not lose and how the Fed’s monetary policies, especially in response to the pandemic, entrenches calcified companies, rendering the zombification effect. Ed and Tyler also examine how markets no longer reward innovative ideas with capital, but rather have converted into a debt refinancing mechanism and encourages a rentier market. They wrap their discussion by exploring how lack of funding will push pensions to go risk-on, whether Tesla can be likened to Amazon, and what may be coming to markets next. In the intro, Nick Correa shares the state of Kentucky recently filed lawsuit against Blackstone and KKR and how this highlights the extreme weaknesses and woes of the pensions industry at large.

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Daily Briefing – July 22, 2020 – Gold Rally Could Be Signaling Inflation Fears: Jim Bianco Jul 22, 2020

Show notes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research to discuss the Fed and Judy Shelton’s recent nomination, the significance of flows, and his forward look on markets and the economy. Bianco and Harrison first analyze the extreme opposition of Shelton’s nomination as a Fed Governor and consider how the Fed has been a domineering force in supporting markets for the past few months. Bianco then breaks down the types of retail investors and why their influence can prove to be powerful in driving market movements. They end their discussion by talking about the recent rally in gold and silver, and Bianco’s perspective on the bifurcation of markets and the economy, whether stimulus can be effective forever, and the damaged psyche of consumers. In the intro, Nick Correa gives an overview of the status of the US’s new relief bill and how the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation program will end sooner than most Americans believe.

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Daily Briefing – July 21, 2020 – There Is Only One Story: Europe – Ed Harrison Jul 21, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to talk about how EU leaders have closed in on its landmark recovery deal. Ash and Ed examine how European political dynamics have shifted and why this may not really be Europe’s “Hamiltonian moment.” They look at how federalism has played out in the US, how the EU differs in its makeup, and what existential threats the EU faces should their efforts fail. They wrap up their discussion with the unique threats the EU may face with coronavirus should it boomerang back to Europe. In the intro, Nick Correa covers the EU recovery deal’s details and shares some of the difficulties in reaching a deal.

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Daily Briefing – July 20, 2020 – Jobless Claims Will Rise By 500,000 Over Next Month: Ed Harrison Jul 20, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Ed Harrison, to analyze the economic news of the day. Ed and Ash examine the recent jobs figures, and Ed describes why he believes the current jobless claims may be significantly underreported. They also discuss gold, and analyze ongoing progress of the EU recovery deal. In the intro, Jack Farley places in context recent movements in the dollar, yen, and euro.

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The Interview - Debt Deflation Holy Grail w/ Richard Koo Jul 19, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision Managing Editor Ed Harrison talks to Richard Koo, Chief Economist at Nomura Research Institute. Koo is famous for his work on balance sheet recessions, a rare type of recession where drastic liquidity injections fail to increase the money supply because they remain trapped in the financial system, as there's no low demand for loans since companies focus on minimizing debt rather than maximizing profits. He and Harrison discuss this framework in detail, and use it to analyze our current economic crisis the world faces. Koo draws a contrast between the traditional balance sheet recession, where a bursting of a debt-financed bubble causes a collapse in asset prices and an emergence of debt overhang, with what he refers to as a "pandemic recession," where an exogenous collapse of economic activity leads to disappearing income and a tightening of financial conditions. Koo and Harrison also discuss the various toolkits available to central banks and fiscal authorities worldwide, and Koo shares what he thinks what a sound policy response might look like.

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The Interview - Inside the COVID-19 Vaccine Project w/ Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad Jul 18, 2020

Show notes

Dr. Kayvon Modjarrad, director of the Emerging Infectious Diseases Program at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, joins Ash Bennington to explain what the Department of Defense's coronavirus vaccine research project is doing to combat the pandemic. Dr. Modjarrad breaks down the different factors that have culminated to increase the difficulty of creating a vaccine. He shares details on the vaccine that his research group is creating with nanoparticles that bind to the virus itself. Finally, he answers questions like, "how long will vaccine deployment take?", "what effects do mutations have on the success of vaccines?", and "how does one protect themself from COVID-19?" from the perspective of an infectious disease doctor on the inside of the scientific effort to mitigate this deadly pandemic.

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Daily Briefing – July 17, 2020 - Gold Miners The Only Action In Town: Raoul Pal Jul 17, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on weakness in the banking sector and the odd flatness that has characterized the market for the past month. Raoul gives a taste of “Afterhours with Raoul,” in which he goes over how to build a macro framework and size position. Raoul and Ash also explore whether the Fed is suppressing volatility and take a look at CLOs through the lens of the most recent episode of Ahead of the Curve. In the intro, Jack examines Netflix’s plunge and the 30-year mortgage rate reaching an all-time low.

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Daily Briefing – July 16, 2020 – The Reopening Has Stalled: Ed Harrison Jul 16, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington joins managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the latest jobless claims numbers and its particular significance this week. They start off by discussing Ed’s latest interview with Robert P. Murphy and Austrian economics. They then distinguish the difference between non-seasonally adjusted data and seasonally adjusted data and why that’s critical to understand the news coverage of this week’s jobless numbers. Ed and Ash end their discussion on Bank of America’s earnings, why several major US banks have had mixed results this week, and what it says about the embedded inequalities in the system. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses California Resources and why their bankruptcy is a foreshadowing for companies who are in trouble and are tapping into credit markets to carry them through the pandemic.

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