Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Daily Briefing – Aug 24, 2020 – Real Vision Talks K-Shaped Recovery, Tesla, Money Fund Fee Waivers Aug 24, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to make sense of a series of financial news stories -- from the so-called “K-shaped” recovery to the struggles American college towns are facing to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s ringing the alarm bell on TikTok. They also evaluate Tesla’s meteoric rise, looking at comments made by Joel Greenblatt, a legendary investor as well as a Real Vision guest, that he “can’t explain it." Lastly, Ed and Ash scrutinize the rise of “investing gurus” on social media platforms. In the intro, Jack takes another look at the U.S. housing market.

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The Interview- w/ Simon Dixon & Raoul Pal- Banking the Future Aug 23, 2020

Show notes

Simon Dixon, CEO of bnktothefuture.com, joins Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, to break down the intersection of the crypto world and the world of traditional finance. Starting his career in investment banking and joining the monetary reform movement along the way, Dixon understood early on the shortcomings of the fiat money system. He and Pal talk about applying traditional financial ideas to the crypto world and argue that doing so will create a stronger financial system for the future. Pal and Dixon discuss the early days of bitcoin, the intersection between central banks and crypto technologies, and their ideas about the relationship between bitcoin, dollars, and gold. Finally, they talk about how the principles of behavioral economics could impact the interplay between fiat currencies, cryptocurrencies, and the composition of future of financial markets.

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The Interview -w/ Marko Papic and Mike Green -- The Next Decade for Geopolitics and Markets Aug 22, 2020

Show notes

We can all remember when geopolitical tensions and trade wars were the most important headlines seeming to move global markets up or down depending upon their tenor, but recently the global pandemic and the associated policy responses have brought the focus home with all eyes squarely on domestic fiscal policy. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, looks forward at the coming decade of the 20's and explores the growing importance of government consumption and investment to GDP, the countries and assets that will emerge as winners and losers from the rewiring of the global economy, and why the cold war is a poor analogy for U.S. relations with China. As well, they discuss why news of the European Union’s death has been greatly exaggerated and much more.

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Daily Briefing – August 21, 2020 – W-Shaped Recession Isn’t Off the Table: Raoul Pal Aug 21, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on the future of markets at this unique juncture. Raoul begins by giving Ash a glimpse of how his “unfolding” thesis has evolved, particularly with regard to the dollar. The discussion of currencies naturally leads Raoul and Ash to talk about the ongoing meltdown of the Turkish Lira (TRY). Raoul explains the correlation between Bitcoin and the TRY and explores whether it’s a sign of capital flight by Turkish investors. After a brief detour into New York City’s woes, Raoul and Ash consider how this consumer-led recession is widening the divide between skilled and unskilled workers, as well as between the rich and the poor. They then discuss Joe Biden’s recent nomination, the upcoming presidential election, and the importance of evaluating markets in a non-partisan way. In the intro, Jack Farley notes a stark contrast in the PMI data between Europe and the U.S.

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Daily Briefing – August 20, 2020 – The Best Thing For Asset Prices Is A Deep Recession: Roger Hirst Aug 20, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts managing editor, Roger Hirst, to discuss ongoing global monetary and fiscal policy support, how central banks may need to adjust their course, and what the long-term ramifications would look like. Ash and Roger review the latest FOMC minutes and consider the effects of looser inflation targeting and the implementation of yield curve control. They dig deeper into the push and pull of inflation targeting by looking at the risks of aiming for reflation and ending up with stagflation. In an environment of low rates and low yields within a deflationary structure, Roger and Ash explore how aggregate debt and growth could be negatively impacted in the long run. Finally, they look at how these scenarios would be expressed in currency markets—the continuing disparity between the dollar and the DXY and the growing pressure for a weaker euro and yen. In the intro, Peter Cooper examines the scaling back of U.S. dollar liquidity swaps, the newest unemployment numbers, and the FOMC minutes.

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Daily Briefing – Aug 19, 2020 – Euro Strength Driving Dollar Weakness, Inflationary Breakout Stories: Roger Hirst Aug 19, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Roger Hirst, to take a deep dive into the apex predator of currency markets: the U.S. dollar. Roger argues that the size and speed of the dollar’s fall is driven more by euro strength, flowing out from the ECB’s move toward debt mutualization, than it is by dollar weakness. He explains how certain EM currencies are still weakening as compared to the dollar and how the ECB and the BOJ may find it difficult to hit their inflation targets should their currencies continue to strengthen. Roger also expounds on how bond yield convergence between the U.S. and Europe is contributing to euro strength. In light of these potential structural challenges and the supply and demand bottlenecks due to COVID-19, Ash and Roger then explore how to play the trade and the ongoing bifurcation of financial markets and the economy. In the intro, Peter Cooper looks at Apple’s $2 trillion valuation and Target’s Q2 earnings report.

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Daily Briefing – August 18, 2020 – The Inflation Trade Just Caught Fire Again: Tony Greer Aug 18, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator Newsletter, to discuss the S&P 500 breaking record highs and the wild inflation trade. Tony considers where inflation is cropping up and how dollar weakness is connected to a dovish Fed. He also talks about the biggest market movers—bitcoin, FANG stocks, precious metals, and miners—and where the market may be headed should low interest rates persist. Ash and Tony explore what is happening in the housing market and what is influencing its activity. They top off their conversation by looking at the risks of momentum strategies to novice investors, ESG strategies catching fire, and Tony’s approach to position sizing. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the kick-off of the Democratic National Convention and the latest on CalPERS.

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Daily Briefing – August 17, 2020 – Goldman’s S&P Target By No Means Out of the Question: Max Wiethe Aug 17, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, is joined by editor, Max Wiethe, to talk gold, stocks, housing, and New York. After Ash analyzes the dismal Empire Manufacturing reading, he and Max discuss the NAHB housing number and explore what it means for the future of New York as professionals flee big cities for the safety of the suburbs. Ash and Max then interpret Goldman Sachs' increase of its price target for the S&P 500, which leads into a discussion of the future of U.S. equities more broadly. Lastly, Ash and Max discuss the case for and against precious metals and emphasize understanding both sides of the trade. In the intro, Jack explores dislocations in the U.S. housing market, looks at Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Barrick Gold Corp, and gives a sneak peak for Tuesday and Wednesday for Real Vision's "Precious Metals Week."

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The Interview - The Dawn of Chaos w/ Hugh Hendry and Luke Gromen Aug 16, 2020

Show notes

The global economy had been running higher for over a decade, and the coronavirus has been a major speed bump. But what happens when central banks have replaced the airbag with a dagger? This is the very question that Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, explores alongside Luke Gromen, president and founder of Forrest for the Trees. Hendry and Gromen explore the fate of the U.S. dollar through the lens of Charles Kindleberger's theory about "monetary hegemony."They analyze the various interest rates and current accounts of different countries and break down how these nations manage their exposure to commodity risk.

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The Interview w/ Mike Green & Sri Thiruvadanthai - Policy Response to COVID-19 and the Fate of the United States. Aug 15, 2020

Show notes

Mike Green of Logica Capital sat down with Srinivas Thiruvadanthai, director of research at the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, in the last interview to be filmed in Real Vision's studios before the world and our daily routines would be drastically changed by unforeseeable total lockdowns. A lot has changed since then, and in this new interview, they reexamine their outlooks with the advantage of fresh data. Together they discuss the side effects of policies like total lockdown, increased unemployment insurance, and PPP while also examining the social and economic undercurrents that, although accelerated by COVID-19, were established long before it arrived on our shores. Using historical parallels to the Roman Empire, Sri and Mike also think about their long-term outlooks for the U.S. and its currency, taking a view that the U.S. is not in its dying days.

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