Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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When Market Ebullience Meets A Left Hook: DB- Dec21, 2020 Dec 21, 2020

Show notes

Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision editor Jack Farley to break down his market outlook as stimulus talks draw to a close and an alarming new strain of COVID-19 spreads throughout the United Kingdom. Boockvar makes his case for why inflation will continue to rise alongside nominal yields in 2021, and he explains why this macro outlook leads him to look favorably upon commodities and value stocks that trade at significantly low price/earnings multiples since he expects multiples to compress across the equity landscape as nominal yields rise. Boockvar gives a strategic update on the state of the Fed's QE programs and argues that the expiration of the Fed's emergency lending programs is not unwelcome and, in fact, is overdue. Lastly, Boockvar shares with Farley several stocks on his radar, such as CVS Health Corp ($CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc ($WBA) as well as evaluates their future business prospect. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin monitors the markets as stimulus relief package passes in the US and a new strain of the coronavirus emerged in England, prompting fresh travel restrictions across Europe.

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The Golden Age of Corporate Fraud (w/ Jim Chanos & Mike Green) Dec 20, 2020

Show notes

Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates, is one of the most legendary investors of all-time, short seller or otherwise. Even after an incredible bull run that has taken many short sellers out back behind the woodshed to be put down, he's still generating incredible alpha for his investors. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors, Chanos explains why we are in a golden age of fraud where the market fails to recognize frauds until the last minute. He also highlights the dynamic of growth-starved investors willing to throw money at any company that can demonstrate a large total addressable market (TAM) even if there is no demonstrable chance of profit. He cites business models like Uber and Grubhub as examples of the market's TAMSanity. He also touches on two of his highest conviction shorts, IBM and the commercial real estate sector, with IBM being described as the ultimate example of a COVID loser and commercial real estate being described as a "slow motion train wreck." Key Learnings: Investors wanting to get short must be cautious and manage risk as the market is not pricing in fraud until the last minute. As well, IBM should serve as an example of the types of companies who have failed to innovate and whose death has been accelerated by COVID. The writing is on the wall for commercial real estate and the debt and leverage in the industry can help investors determine the timing of its slow death as obligations will eventually have to be met.

Recorded on November 11, 2020.

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Napier and Johnson: The Money Riddle Dec 19, 2020

Show notes

For the past decade, Russell Napier has correctly called for disinflation, dissenting with the conventional wisdom that inflation is on horizon. Yet he has changed his mind, and in this conversation with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, Napier explains why he believes the inflationary tides, so long delayed, may soon arrive on the shores of currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Napier argues that fiscal authorities are, via macroprudential regulation, essentially compelling commercial banks to lend and are also requiring them to hold unattractive assets such as negative yielding debt. This new force, Napier continues, will succeed where quantitative easing (QE) has failed in expanding commercial bank balance sheets. Johnson and Napier analyze how this new potential regime will impact affect pensioners, students, and savers as well as how it will shape the destiny of every asset class ranging from equities to Treasurys, from European bank debt to currencies, and from mortgage-backed securities to fine art. .

For more charts, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lsOdZw and https://rvtv.io/36BS7cC. Key learnings: Rapid growth of the money supply coupled with low inventories could push the U.S. into a reflationary whirlwind. Napier has an inflation target of 4% for the OECD because he believes macroprudential regulation will compel large financial institutions to lend and hold dubious assets to an unprecedented degree. This view is not necessarily bearish for the dollar, nor for emerging market (EM) currencies, which might prove more resilient than many anticipate. But, it does spell trouble for the Euro, which is already in a bad way.

Recorded on November 11, 2020

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Raoul's Christmas Market Wrap: DB- Dec18,2020 Dec 18, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his market wrap-up of 2020. They monitor the price dislocations at the close as the S&P 500 was under pressure all day ahead of Tesla’s historic entry into the index. Pal looks back at the year that was from equities to the bond market to crypto to gold, silver and copper. He sees emerging markets breaking out in 2021, specifically identifying opportunities in Iran. In the intro, Real Vision editor/reporter Haley Draznin touches upon Coinbase filing for an IPO as Bitcoin surges to all-time.

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Mike Green - This Car Has No Brakes (But We re Driving Uphill): DB- Dec17, 2020 Dec 17, 2020

Show notes

Mike Green of Logica Capital Advisors joins Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, to share his market outlook as U.S. equities yet again reach all-time highs. Green breaks down the current market structure, looking at how changes to order book depth and inter-asset correlations present investment risks. Green and Bennington discuss commodities, passive investing, and the Fed’s latest FOMC meeting, with Green sharing his outlook on inflation and interest rates. Lastly, Bennington asks Green his views on crypto-assets and particularly Bitcoin, which continues to surge immensely. In the intro, editor Jack Farley jobless reports on today’s jobless claims, the status of U.S. fiscal stimulus, and Tesla’s looming entry into the S&P 500. The paper by Rob Arnott on Tesla, which Jack mentions, can be found here: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/819-tesla-the-largest-cap-stock-ever.html?evar36=eml_tesla-hero-title&_cldee=amFja0ByZWFsdmlzaW9uLmNvbQ%3d%3d&recipientid=contact-a2eae8d2e63beb1180f1b4c5161772f1-63905c439f0c42899407aad7822ace65&esid=0498153a-6840-eb11-80f1-b4c5161772f1.

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Looking Beyond the U.S. and a Few Crumbs from the Fed Meeting: DB: Dec16, 2020 Dec 16, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision Managing Editor Ed Harrison and Editor Max Wiethe discuss the next turn of the rotation trade and the few crumbs of information served up from today's Fed meeting. Ed and Max begin by briefly addressing today’s Fed FOMC meeting where, almost no majors changes were announced and focus on the updated summary of economic projections. They then examine the bull case for the next leg of the rotation trade and the argument that its geography could be much different than the prior leg. They also discuss a few recent market anomalies surrounding algorithmic trading, as well as the recent onslaught of IPOs.

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Ash and Jack's Impromptu Briefing: DB- Dec15 , 2020 Dec 16, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Real Vision’s Jack Farley, who is filling in for Dave Floyd. Jack and Ash break down the rising volumes of put option contracts on DoorDash, and the announcement that Blade Urban Air Mobility will go public in 2021 via a SPAC. Ash then provides his analysis on COVID-19 hospitalizations and Georgia’s elections. Lastly, Ash and Jack discuss big tech valuations and preview this week’s interviews. In the intro, Haley Draznin updates viewers on REITs and Congress’ stimulus progress.

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The Major Corporate Solvency Crisis: DB - Dec14, 2020 Dec 14, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the growing corporate debt crisis. Ed and Jack discuss the latest report from the Group of Thirty, which finds that balance sheet impairment will complicate economic recovery and persist long after this pandemic ends. Ed crystallizes the risks into three separate categories—pandemic-related, economic, and financial—and incorporates these risks into Raoul’s framework on the “insolvency phase." Ed and Jack also discuss fiscal aid, sector rotation, and lockdowns in the U.S. and Europe. In the intro, Real Vision's Peter Cooper discusses the joyous news of the beginnings of vaccine distribution in the U.S., AstraZeneca's announcement to acquire Alexion Pharmaceuticals, and the sterling's rally on renewed Brexit trade negotiations.

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Ric Edelman on Bitcoin: Breaking Down the Barriers to Entry Dec 13, 2020

Show notes

Acclaimed financial advisor Ric Edelman, founder of the RIA Digital Assets Council (www.riadac.com) and Edelman Financial Engines, the #1 RIA firm in the nation according to Barron’s, talks with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about the barriers preventing financial managers and investors from buying bitcoin and how the crypto community can gain mass adoption. Edelman explains the benefits of adding Bitcoin to a diversified portfolio, shares his approach to investing in digital assets, and reveals his expectations for a Bitcoin ETF. All this and more, recorded Nov. 30, 2020. Key Learnings: Due to the slow progress of an official Bitcoin ETF, there are significant barriers to entry for financial managers to give their clients exposure to this asset class. Edelman explains how these barriers will eventually be removed. As Bitcoin provides valuable diversification for portfolios where traditional allocations may no longer generate satisfactory returns and hedge risk in the current market environment, there is an urgent need for investors to become educated about the crypto asset class as it approaches mainstream adoption.

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James Litinsky: Rare Earths Taking Center Stage in the Electric Vehicle Boom Dec 12, 2020

Show notes

James Litinsky, founder and CEO of MP Materials ($MP), is joined by Real Vision editor Jack Farley to discuss his mission to restore to North America the rare earth supply chain, which for decades has been dominated by China. Litinsky highlights the critical role rare earth elements are playing in the economy of the future, explaining their uses in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other markets that are set to dramatically expand. After Litinsky shares his experience in MP Materials’ going public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), he and Farley discuss the properties of MP Materials’ Mountain Pass mine that make it uniquely able to produce rare earth concentrate at a low cost and in an environmentally-friendly manner. Lastly, Litinsky, a former hedge fund manager, puts back on his "investor" hat to share his macro framework. For the Real Vision "Discoveries" documentary on the Mountain Pass mine, click here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/discoveries/videos/the-rare-earth-metal-megatrend. For more about MP Materials, click here: https://mpmaterials.com/. Recorded on December 2, 2020. Key Learnings: Litinsky believes rare earths are an effective "picks and shovels" play on the exponential growth of electric vehicles (EVs), since all electric vehicles require Neodymium Praseodymium (NdPr) magnets to power their motors, and since EV stocks are priced to perfection and are largely in the pre-profit stage (and in some cases, pre-revenue). Litinsky argues that the rich ore body of the Mountain Pass mine best positions MP Materials to command market share, calling the mine "the Saudi Arabia of Rare Earths."

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