Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

It's Time to Talk About Slowing Growth Jun 24, 2022

Show notes

The Federal Reserve’s commitment to cooling inflation remains “unconditional,” said Jerome Powell in a second day of congressional testimony, even as evidence from overseas indicates we’re heading for a slowdown. “Growth down, inflation expectations down, cracks start to appear in commodity momentum,” tweeted Andreas Steno Larsen. S&P Global’s preliminary Eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 16-month low in June on slower demand growth. “We know that the manufacturing cycle is weakening fast,” Andreas noted, “but the service sector was anticipated to have a strong summer. This is now debatable.” Andreas joins Weston Nakamura to talk about Europe, while Weston provides an update on what’s happening in Asia. More broadly, they talk about whether the narrative focus is changing from “inflation” to “recession.” We also hear from Tian Yang about long-term constraints on commodity supplies. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3bohJiR. Watch the full conversation featuring Tian Yang here: https://rvtv.io/3xHghji.

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The Reality Is Higher Rates Slow Growth Jun 22, 2022

Show notes

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, testifying before Congress on Wednesday, said the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools. He also acknowledged that engineering a “soft landing” will be “very challenging.” Indeed, Bill Dudley, a former Fed governor, wrote today that “a recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.” Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined, as President Joe Biden floated a three-month federal gasoline tax holiday. The three major U.S. indexes held modest gains approaching the closing bell, as investors saw room in Powell’s words for a sooner-than-expected dovish turn. Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to talk about the effort to control inflation without constraining growth and the market’s reaction to Powell’s testimony. We also hear from Tian Yang about the issue of the Fed’s credibility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ndy8Eh. And be on the lookout for Thursday’s release of the full Expert View session featuring Tian Yang.

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Is This the Beginning of Something Bigger? Jun 22, 2022

Show notes

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 2% Tuesday, and it was the laggard among the major U.S. equity indexes as investors emerged from the three-day weekend buying with both hands. Energy stocks led the way, as West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $111 a barrel. Bloomberg data also show the refining business is doing very well amid this energy bull. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about today’s big bounce and whether it signals the beginning of something bigger. Tony also shares his thoughts on crude oil, the 3:2:1 crack spread, and the durable role of fossil fuels in the modern economy. And we hear from Michael Howell about the accumulating evidence that we’re headed for a global recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/39E0AkP. Watch the full conversation featuring Michael Howell and Jared Dillian here: https://rvtv.io/3y7gXQf.

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The Next Big Trade - Nick Halaris Explains Why He’s Still Bullish on the U.S. Housing Market Jun 19, 2022

Show notes

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. The U.S. housing market boomed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Demand surged, as low interest rates fed a desire to find more space. What happens now, with the average 30-year mortgage rate up to 5.5% from 3.0% at the beginning of 2022? Nick Halaris of Metros Capital believes the market will remain resilient, and he explains why in a fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade.

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My Life in 4 Trades - Michael Gayed Talks About How To Learn From Your Losses Jun 18, 2022

Show notes

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Michael Gayed is an experienced portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and the author of five award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing. He joins Maggie Lake to explain how his toughest moments made him a stronger trader and why humility is an essential element of long-term success.

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Things Are Even Tougher All Over Jun 18, 2022

Show notes

Ash welcomes Michael Gayed, CIO and portfolio manager at Toroso Investments, to assess the bigger picture after a tough week for equities and fixed income. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mUOI11. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II and Mark Ritchie here: https://rvtv.io/3OgNoks.

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When Will This Volatility End? Jun 16, 2022

Show notes

“You don’t buy when there’s ‘blood in the streets,’” notes Darius Dale. “You buy when there’s a catalyst to clean it up.” U.S. equity indexes are bleeding today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding below the 30,000 mark. The question is, what is that catalyst, and when will it reveal itself? Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to answer that question and to talk about today’s price action in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s biggest rate hike since 1994. According to Darius, “This trending volatility won’t end until the liquidity cycle inflects and speeds up the growth cycle bottom.” Mortgage rates have already exploded past 6%, a sign tighter monetary policy is already impacting consumers. How far will the Fed go to catch inflation? “Inflation KILLS societies,” says Darius. We also hear from Mark Ritchie II about how to manage risk in a volatile environment. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mRtaSP. Watch the full Real Visionaries interview featuring Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3O6f2RS.

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What Comes After the Biggest Rate Hike in 28 Years? Jun 15, 2022

Show notes

The Federal Open Market Committee announced the biggest increase to the federal funds rate in a quarter century, the Bank of Japan stepped up its “yield curve control” efforts, and the European Central Bank met on an emergency basis to address Italy and “fragmenting” bond yields, as monetary policymakers continue to struggle with a crazy, mixed-up macro environment. U.S equity indexes held onto solid gains following the Fed’s announcement of a 75-basis-point rate hike, and yields on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds declined. Seeking credibility, the Fed said it’s “strongly committed” to returning inflation to its 2% target. Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what today’s moves by the BoJ, the ECB, and the Fed mean for markets and the economy. We also share a segment from today's Crypto Unwrapped episode about Bitcoin, Ethereum, and recent price action in that volatile space. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3mNNFzO. Watch the full Crypto Unwrapped episode here: https://rvtv.io/3xT3viR.

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Keep Calm and Manage the Volatility Jun 15, 2022

Show notes

The producer price index was up 0.8% month over month and 10.8% on an annual basis in May, and Wall Street economists are racing to update forecasts for this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting to include a 75-basis-point rate hike. Stocks were mixed at midday, as prices of energy commodities continue to surge. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake to explain why a fire at a Texas LNG plant caused U.S. natural gas prices to sag but European prices to surge. Tony also talks about the implications of longer-term supply constraints in the energy market. We also share a segment from today’s Real Visionaries episode where top traders share actionable strategies for trading amid today’s volatility. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3xOBGbq. Watch the full Real Visionaries conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3MSn2UZ.

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We Have a Bear Market. Is a Recession Next? Jun 14, 2022

Show notes

“I'm genuinely spooked,” Jared Dillian tweeted late Sunday night, as Asian markets opened sharply lower and U.S. equity futures pointed to a bleak Monday open on Wall Street, “and I don't spook easily.” Two hours shy of the close, every stock in the S&P 500 is down for the day, and that index is in “official” bear market territory. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note has surged past the 10-year, a dramatic inversion that’ll surely fuel talk of recession. Dillian, the editor of The Daily Dirtnap, is not waiting around to position for that eventuality and a bear market too: “70% of my portfolio is gold and bonds.” Dillian joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about today’s price action. And our expert on the ground in Asia, Weston Nakamura, drops in for an update on a critical aspect of the global financial system ahead of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. We also share a segment from today’s Cryptoverse Breaking News about the crashing crypto market. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3OdWgaM. Watch the full Cryptoverse Breaking News segment here: https://rvtv.io/3txRgpg

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