Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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Is a Soft Landing a Pipe Dream? Aug 12, 2022

Show notes

U.S. stocks surged again this morning on news the Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% in July, the first monthly decline since April 2020. At the same time, producer prices were up 9.8% year over year. And multiple Federal Reserve officials said tightening would continue until inflationary pressures completely ease. “Stocks are going up,” notes Harry Melandri, an advisor at Mi2 Partners and the host of Real Vision’s The Next Big Trade podcast, “and that doesn’t seem consistent with Fed statements.” That we need inflation to have peaked and to no longer be a problem does not mean, of course, that it’s happened. To that end, we hear from emerging markets investing pioneer Mark Mobius about reasons to start nibbling amid what’s still a bear market as well as the possibility that there’s another shoe to drop because the Fed remains hawkish. Harry joins Maggie Lake, the host of Real Vision’s My Life in 4 Trades podcast, to talk about all that and much more, including Harry’s Cheesecake Factory anecdote. Watch the full interview featuring Mark Mobius and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3zHPXXi.

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Have We Reached Peak Inflation? Aug 11, 2022

Show notes

U.S. stocks gapped higher at today’s open and held onto big gains through the day, buoyed by signs in July’s Consumer Price Index data that we’ve finally reached an inflection point for inflation. Both headline and core measures came in below consensus forecast, as the question turns to whether the trend has changed. Plunging yields across the U.S. Treasury curve suggest investors believe it has. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about price action across asset classes leading up to and in the aftermath of this morning’s report. Andreas welcomes Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, for an assessment of the July CPI data in the broader context and the “evolving distribution of probable outcomes.” What does this print mean for markets, especially as it comes from a month when the U.S. economy added more than 500,000 jobs? And what does the Federal Reserve do next? “It’s critical,” as Darius tweeted today, “to have a data-driven process that’s able to recognize it in real-time.”

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"It Is All About Oil Prices" Aug 10, 2022

Show notes

Marko Papic has a very clear view of Wednesday morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the July U.S. Consumer Price Index: “Getting the inflection in CPI prints is really important,” he says. “So, yes, even a minor decline is relevant.” Papic, a partner and the chief strategist at Clocktower Group, also has a very clear view of the most important factor in the global inflation calculus: crude oil. “The bottom line is that if oil prices fall further, don’t expect the equity rebound to end. It is all about oil prices at this point.” Papic joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about oil, inflation, and equity markets. We also hear from David Woo, who compares the China-Taiwan situation to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offers the following geopolitical marker: “Before the end of August, we will know how the situation in Ukraine is going to play out." Watch the full interview featuring David Woo and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/3Pds1Ro.

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"Listen to What the Market Is Saying" Aug 09, 2022

Show notes

If last week’s events in and around Taiwan illustrate Asia’s growing geopolitical importance, today’s announcement by SoftBank that it lost $23 billion in the second quarter also make it the home to “the world’s largest dumb retail investor,” as Weston Nakamura put it. Weston joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about SoftBank and to preview Wednesday’s release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index. With the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly survey of consumer expectations showing substantial declines in short-, medium-, and long -term inflation expectations, Maggie welcomes Dave Floyd, the president of Aspen Trading Group, for an update on financial markets from a technical analyst’s perspective. Where are key levels of support and resistance for the major equity indexes? What are forex markets telling us? And is this merely a bear market rally?

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The Next Big Trade - Lawson Steele on Energy and the Future of Europe Aug 07, 2022

Show notes

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, The Next Big Trade - be sure to subscribe. Lawson Steele, one of the most respected analysts of carbon trading and EU Emissions Trading System markets, joins Harry Melandri to talk about the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on European energy supply and demand, sharing an informed perspective on the short-, medium-, and long-term future for the political and economic union.

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Introducing the Real Vision Academy Aug 06, 2022

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On this edition of Real Vision Twitter Spaces, Raoul Pal, Damian Horner, Maggie Lake, and George Stanoev join Ash Bennington to introduce Real Vision’s newest groundbreaking venture, the Real Vision Academy. Our panel talks about the many ways the Academy can help you and your portfolio grow along your investing journey and answers from the Space about the Academy and its mission to make better investors.

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My Life in 4 Trades - Paul Hodges Believes Markets Will Refocus on Price Discovery Aug 06, 2022

Show notes

Here’s a full-length episode from Real Vision's original series, My Life in 4 Trades - be sure to subscribe. Paul Hodges of the pH Report and New Normal Consulting joins Maggie Lake for another compelling episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Hodges, a 40-year financial veteran, talks about when markets will stop Fed-watching and refocus on core fundamental principles and the process of price discovery. He also explains why every trade has four possible outcomes.

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About That Blockbuster Jobs Report ... Aug 05, 2022

Show notes

Equity futures tanked and Treasury yields spiked this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, as investors priced in another 75-basis-point rate hike when the Federal Reserve meets in September. The major U.S. stock indexes rallied, rolled over, and rallied again into the afternoon, reflecting what remains the murkiest macro environment in recent memory. Meanwhile, on the increasingly fraught geopolitical front, China stepped up its military activity around Taiwan, sanctioned Nancy Pelosi, and cut off military and climate talks with the U.S. Maggie Lake welcomes Jeffrey Schulze, a director and an investment strategist at ClearBridge Investments, to the Daily Briefing to talk about today’s jobs report and what it means for the Fed, markets, and investors.

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The Bank of England Goes Big and Gets Scary Aug 05, 2022

Show notes

The Bank of England announced its biggest rate hike since 1995 and forecast “long recession,” including five consecutive quarters of negative growth beginning in late 2022, as global central banks continue to take drastic measures to combat the worst inflation in nearly half a century. In the U.S., more data suggest the labor market is cooling off, as initial claims for unemployment insurance returned to pre-pandemic levels last week. The BoE’s problem may be more acute than the Federal Reserve’s because of the former’s proximity to Europe’s energy crisis. As Darius Dale tweeted today, there are positive catalysts out there, including the deal between Coinbase and BlackRock to make crypto trading easier for institutions. The question is how to interpret them. Darius, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Maggie Lake to talk about that and much more on today’s Daily Briefing.

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"No More Candy for You" Aug 03, 2022

Show notes

Stocks are ripping higher today and yields are rising, as multiple Federal Reserve officials are telling the market that the central bank is still hawkish about inflation and talk of a “pivot” is premature. “You’ve had enough candy, no more for you,” is how Peter Boockvar puts it in his latest report. Peter, the chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said of today’s Institute for Supply Management’s services index data for July that “the headline increase but the shrinking breadth of economic growth points to the growing mixed bag but slowing trend of the US economy.” He joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about weakening economic data and the Fed’s path from here. We also hear from David Woo about the trajectory of U.S. growth and what it means for markets.

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